Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Developing Countries

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					Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Developing Countries: Scenarios and Opportunities in Brazil, China and India
Center for Clean Air Policy

January 2007

Developing Country Project

• Funded by UK Department for International Development (DFID), the Tinker Foundation & Hewlett Foundation • Key Goal: Strengthen developing countries capacities to reduce emissions and better participate in negotiations on future climate policies under UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

Developing Country Project
In-country Partners
Institute for Environmental Systems Analysis within the Department of Environmental Science and Engineering at Tsinghua University

•The Center for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (Centro Clima) •Institute for Research and Postgraduate Studies of Engineering at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro •Thelma Krug •Magda Aparecida de Lima •Haroldo Machado Filho.

Developing Country Project
In-country Partners
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)

The Mario Molina Center

Developing Country Project
• Assisting developing country climate negotiators through analysis and dialogue • A bottom-up analysis of GHG emissions projections • Mitigation cost of various options for key sectors of the economy • Co-benefit analysis

Key Findings
GHG Emissions Projected to Grow in All Three Countries

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to more than double from 2000 levels in the electricity, industrial, transportation, and residential & commercial sectors over the next two decades

Key Findings
All three countries: 150% increase (~5,000 MMTCO2)

132% increase (3,041 MMTCO2) 126% increase (285 MMTCO2) 228% increase (1,635 MMTCO2)

Key Findings
Significant GHG Emission Reductions Can Be Achieved

Key Findings
Unilateral Efforts Will Slow This Trend & Reduce Emissions
7% reduction below BAU (395 MMTCO2)

14% reduction below BAU (73 MMTCO2)
Less than 1% increase above BAU (6 MMTCO2)

Significant Unilateral Actions

Reductions in 2010 from BAU

Key Findings
Recent Policies and Programs
• Renewable Energy Law and the 10th Five-Year Plan • Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation Plan (2005) • Maximum Limits of Fuel Consumption (L/100km) for Passenger Cars

Key Findings
Recent Policies and Programs
• Program for Incentive of Alternative Electric Energy Sources (PROINFA) • The National Program of Fuel Alcohol (PROALCOOL) – “Ethanol Program”

Key Findings
Recent Policies and Programs
• Integrated Transport Policy 2002 • National Electricity Act 2003 • Efforts to expand renewable energy generation taken prior to 2000 (therefore included in the BAU)

Recent Policies & Programs
Objectives & Economic Cost:
• • • • Energy security – growing demand and limited domestic supply Reliability of the power network Enhanced economic productivity and competitiveness Improved air and water quality

Some actions were taken despite their positive economic cost:
• Many of Chinese RE opportunities: >$10 per ton • Chinese iron & steel: $5 to $10 per son • Brazil’s flex fuel program: $30 per ton

Recent Policies & Programs
“Contribution to the Protection of the Atmosphere”
Many of the emission reductions achieved through these policies are not being developed as CDM.

Key Findings
Unilateral Efforts + Additional Reductions Will Make A Difference 19% reduction (993 MMTCO2) 29% reduction (147 MMTCO2) 17% reduction (394 MMTCO2)

Future Climate Policy Opportunities
• Recognize and encourage developing countries “unilateral actions” • Provide incentives for more expensive emissions reduction opportunities • Establish a global policy structure coupling needed incentives for developing country actions with tough emission reduction goals sufficient to protect the climate

How do we create such a framework?


China, Brazil and India can do their part to limit global increases in temperature to 2˚C if they choose to make the full complement of reductions identified in this study.

To meet this goal, all nations would need to make significant reductions, such as:
• • •

EU and other nations cut their emissions to 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 The U.S. cut its emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 The other major developing countries made efforts similar to China, India and Brazil


•Set tough GHG caps in developed countries •Pursue unilateral policies and emission reduction goals in developing countries
• No-lose Sectoral targets • Sectoral CDM • Sustainable Development Policies and Measures (SD-PAMs)

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