Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventories 1990-2001
Michael McGettigan EPA
12 August, 2008
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Institutional and Procedural Arrangements
The Irish EPA was established under the Environmental Protection Agency Act of 1992 Under Sections 52 & 69 of the EPA Act, the Agency is required to establish and maintain databases and inventories of emissions to the environment and to provide such information to interested parties Under Section 55 of the Act the Agency must provide information and advice to Government in order that it can comply with Ireland’s reporting obligations and commitments within the framework of international agreements These requirements are the regulatory basis on which the EPA produces annual inventories of GHGs The Department of Environment Heritage and Local Government (DEHLG) designated the EPA as the focal point for submission of emissions data to the UNFCCC Sectretariat and to the UNECE Sectretariat The agency compiles the national GHG inventories on behalf of the Department for submission under the Framework Convention on Climate Change and to the Monitoring Mechanism of the Commission under Decision 99/296/EEC
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Institutional & Procedural Arrangements
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Common Reporting Format
Framework for reporting information on methods, assumptions for each IPCC sector; aggregated activity data and emission factors; bunkers, feedstocks, recalculations, changes in methods
Designed to facilitate submission of annual inventory in uniform format for all countries; identification of errors and omissions; comparisons between years and between countries
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National Inventory Report
Detailed description of methods and data country-specific methods, assumptions for each IPCC sector; disaggregated activity data and emission factors; calculation sheets, database information, references
Information on QA/QC Uncertainties Improvements, response to reviews
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Status of Irish Reporting
Consistent CRF time-series 1990-2001 for CO2, CH4 and N2O [1995-2001 for f-gases] Substantial application of revised 1996 IPCC Guideline methodologies NIR structured according to UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines Significant progress on implementation of IPCC Good Practice Guidance
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Recalculations
Two major rounds of recalculations to improve consistency and completeness Recalculations described in detail in NIR 2002 and NIR 2003 Update for CO2 emissions/removals by forest to be submitted in 2004 Major recalculations in coming years for Agriculture and LUCF
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Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2001
80,000 70,000 60,000 53418 54282 55105 54803 56527
Gg CO2 Equivalent
57583 59249 62031 64128 66257 68252 70018
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
National Total Protocol Target
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Emissions by Sector
Sector
1 2 3 4 5 6
Energy Industrial Processes Solvent and Other Product Use Agriculture Land-Use Change and Forestry Waste
1990 2001 share share Gg CO2 Gg CO2 change % 1990 2001
31,027 3,145 92 17,937 -66 1,217 45,348 4,050 109 19,170 -629 1,341 46.15 28.77 18.57 6.87 857.54 10.21 58.08 5.89 0.17 33.58 -0.12 2.28 64.77 5.78 0.16 27.38 -0.90 1.92
Total Total (excluding CO2 from LUCF)
53,352 69,389 53,418 70,018
30.06 31.08
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Trends by IPCC Source Category
70000
Gg CO 2 Equivalent
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 19 9 0 19 9 1 19 9 2 19 9 3 19 9 4 19 9 5 19 9 6 19 9 7 19 9 8 19 9 9 2000 2001
Energy
Ind Processes
Solvent Use
Agriculture
Waste
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Trends by Gas
70,000
Gg CO2 Equivalent
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01
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C O2
C H4
N2O
HFC , PFC and SF6
CO2 from Combustion Sources
45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000
Gg CO2
25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Energy Industry Transport Residential Other
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Emissions from Agriculture
25,000 20,000
Gg CO2 Equivalent
15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Ent Ferm C attle Ent Ferm Other Manure Mgmt Ag Soils
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Key Sources
A key source is one that is prioritised within the national inventory system because its estimate has a significant influence on the total inventory in terms of absolute level of emissions , the trend in emissions, or both (IPCC Good Practice Guidance)
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Key Sources (IPCC Level 2)
IPCC Level 2 Source Category GHG Emissions in 1990 Gg CO2 11057.48 9725.97 9180.21 6870.08 5019.62 3833.08 1260.83 1158.21 1035.40 989.17 941.42 1990 Level Cumulative Assessment Total of Level % % 20.70 18.21 17.19 12.86 9.40 7.18 2.36 2.17 1.94 1.85 1.76 20.70 38.91 56.09 68.95 78.35 85.53 87.89 90.05 91.99 93.84 95.61 1.A.1 1.A.4 4.A 4.D 1.A.3 1.A.2 4.B 6.A 2.B 2.B 2.A Energy Industries Other Sectors Enteric Fermentation Agricultural Soils Transport Manufacturing Industries Manure Management Solid Waste Disposal Chemical Industry Chemical Industry Mineral Products CO2 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CO2 CH4 CH4 N2O CO2 CO2
1990
IPCC Level 2 Source Category
GHG
Emissions 2001 Level Cumulative in 2001 Assessment Level Gg CO2 % % 17144.75 11062.84 10413.97 9676.96 7414.36 4726.29 1832.63 1395.58 1276.15 1037.40 683.52 24.49 15.80 14.87 13.82 10.59 6.75 2.62 1.99 1.82 1.48 0.98 24.49 40.29 55.16 68.98 79.57 86.32 88.94 90.93 92.75 94.23 95.21
1.A.1 1.A.3 1.A.4 4.A 4.D 1.A.2 2.A 4.B 6.A 2.B 4.B
Energy Industries Transport Other Sectors Enteric Fermentation Agricultural Soils Manufacturing Industries Mineral Products Manure Management Solid Waste Disposal Chemical Industry Manure Management
CO2 CO2 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2 CO2 CH4 CH4 CO2 N2O
2001
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Key Source Analysis by Level Assessment in 2001
41 key sources in total (calculation level) 26 key sources for CO2 account for 65% of emissions 6 key sources for CH4 account for 17% of emissions 7 key sources for N2O account for 13% of emissions 2 key sources for HFC,PFC & SF6 account for <1 % of emissions Energy has 26 key sources; Industrial Processes has 5 and Agriculture has 8
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Key Sources in 2001
Table 3.1(b) Key Source Level Assessment 2001 Disaggregated Emission Source GHG Emissions in 2001 Gg CO2 1 Energy Industries- Coal 2 Enteric Fermentation - Other Cattle 3 Road Transport - Diesel 4 Road Transport - Petrol 5 Energy Industries- Natural Gas 6 Energy Industries- Oil 7 Direct Soil Emissions 8 Animal Production 9 Energy Industries- Peat 10 Enteric Fermentation - Dairy Cattle 11 Residential Kerosene 12 Commercial Gasoil 13 Industrial Processes - Cement 14 Indirect Soil Emissions 15 Solid Waste Disposal 2001 Level Assessment % 8.60 8.51 7.89 6.80 5.98 5.61 4.19 4.19 3.81 3.65 2.81 2.56 2.36 2.21 1.82 Cumulative Total of Level % 8.60 17.11 25.01 31.80 37.78 43.39 47.58 51.77 55.58 59.23 62.04 64.59 66.95 69.16 70.98
CO2 CH4 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 N2O N2O CO2 CH4 CO2 CO2 CO2 N2O CH4
6021.41 5959.80 5527.13 4759.76 4185.52 3925.34 2935.70 2932.60 2667.44 2557.80 1964.02 1789.18 1650.00 1546.90 1276.15
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Tier 1 Uncertainty Estimates
Table 1.4. Tier 1 Uncertainty Estim ates (based on Table 6.1 of the IPCC Good Practice Guidance)
IPCC Source Category Gas Emissions in Base Year 1990 Emissions in 2001 Activity Data (AD) Uncertainty Emission Factor (EF) Uncertainty Combined Combined Combined Type A Type B Uncertainty Uncertainty Combined Combined Uncertainty Uncertainty Emissions Sensitivity Sensitivity in Trend in in Trend in Uncertain Trend as % of Uncertainty Total Total ty in Uncertainty Total Squared Emissions Emissions Trend in Squared Emissions due to AD due to EF Total in 2001 Emissions
Gg CO2
1A1 Energy-Coal Energy-Peat Energy-Gas Energy-Other 1A2 Industry-Coal Industry-Pet Coke Industry-Gas Industry-Oil 1A3 Transport-Oil 1A4 Other-Coal and PC Other-Peat Other-Gas Other-Oil 2A1 Cement Production 2A2 Lime Production 2B Ammonia Production 5 Liming of Ag Lands CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 4844.66 3064.65 1880.66 1267.50 970.37 0.00 855.68 2007.12 4971.32 2327.15 3259.38 469.25 3670.18 750.00 191.42 989.17 384.45
Gg CO2
6021.41 2667.44 4185.52 4270.39 249.52 692.13 1226.02 2497.20 10954.73 1196.52 1247.13 1830.98 6139.34 1650.00 182.63 1037.40 378.30
%
1 1 1 1 2 1 1 10 1 5 10 1 10 1 1 1 5
%
5 5 2.5 2.5 5 10 2.5 2.5 2.5 10 20 2.5 5 5 5 5 20
%
5.10 5.10 2.69 2.69 5.39 10.05 2.69 10.31 2.69 11.18 22.36 2.69 11.18 5.10 5.10 5.10 20.62
%
0.44 0.19 0.16 0.16 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.37 0.42 0.19 0.40 0.07 0.98 0.12 0.01 0.08 0.11 0.19 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.14 0.18 0.04 0.16 0.00 0.96 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
%
-0.01 -0.03 0.03 0.05 -0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.08 -0.03 -0.06 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
%
0.11 0.05 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.05 0.20 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.11 0.03 0.00 0.02 0.01
%
0.16 0.07 0.11 0.11 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.66 0.29 0.16 0.33 0.05 1.62 0.04 0.00 0.03 0.05
%
-0.03 -0.13 0.08 0.12 -0.10 0.13 0.01 -0.01 0.21 -0.34 -1.13 0.06 0.13 0.06 -0.01 -0.02 -0.05 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.10 0.13 0.03 0.66 0.36 0.38 1.17 0.07 1.63 0.08 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.44 0.13 0.14 1.38 0.01 2.65 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total CO2
1A 1B 4A 4A 4A 4B 6A Fuel Comb-All Fuels Fugitive Emissions Dairy Cattle Other Cattle Other Livestock Manure Management Solid Waste CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4
31902.96
149.94 150.78 2847.60 5172.30 1160.46 1260.84 1158.15
46426.66
110.67 103.32 2557.80 5959.80 1159.62 1395.66 1276.17 2 2.5 1 1 1 10 20 50 10 20 30 50 50 50 50.04 10.31 20.02 30.02 50.01 50.99 53.85
1.34
0.08 0.02 0.73 2.56 0.83 1.02 0.98
1.80
0.01 0.00 0.54 6.53 0.69 1.03 0.96 0.00 0.00 -0.02 -0.01 -0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.11 0.02 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.07 0.16 0.03 0.37 0.67 -0.08 -0.02 -0.44 -0.45 -0.33 -0.24 -0.22
2.21
0.08 0.02 0.44 0.48 0.34 0.44 0.71
4.87
0.01 0.00 0.19 0.23 0.11 0.19 0.50
Total CH4 Cumulative CO2 and CH4
11900.07 43803.03
12563.04 58989.70
3.12 3.40
9.76
11.56
1.11 2.47
1.24
6.10
1A 1A 2B 4B 4D 6B
Fuel Comb-Road Traffic Fuel Comb-Other Sectors Nitric Acid Manure Management Agricultural Soils Wastewater
N2O N2O N2O N2O N2O N2O
56.11 895.20 1035.40 626.82 6870.08 60.14
341.93 1310.37 585.90 682.00 7415.20 65.10
1 2 1 20 20 10
25 50 10 100 100 10
25.02 50.04 10.05 101.98 101.98 14.14
0.12 0.94 0.08 0.99 10.81 0.01
0.01 0.88 0.01 0.99 116.76 0.00 118.64 130.21 0.01 0.02 0.00
0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.03 0.00
0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.14 0.00
0.01 0.07 0.02 0.36 3.92 0.02
0.13 0.13 -0.14 -0.26 -2.92 0.00
0.13 0.15 0.14 0.44 4.89 0.02
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.20 23.91 0.00 24.16 30.26 0.02 0.02 0.00
Total N2O Cumulative CO2, CH4 and N2O
2F 2F 2F Halocarbons & SF6 Halocarbons & SF6 Halocarbons & SF6 HFC PFC SF6
9543.75
20.71 75.38 83.05
10400.50
230.90 296.50 66.75 20 20 20 25 25 25 32.02 32.02 32.02
10.89 11.41
0.11 0.14 0.03
4.92 5.50
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.12 0.03 0.10 0.09 -0.02 0.13 0.15 0.03
Total HFC, PFC & SF6
179.14
594.15
0.17
0.03
0.20
0.04
Total all gases
53525.92
69984.35 Overall Uncertainty in Emissions 11.41
130.24 Trend Uncertainty 5.50
30.30
Type A Sensitivity
the change in the difference in overall emissions between the base year and the current year, expressed as a percentage, resulting from a 1 percent increase in emissions of a given source category/gas combination in both the base year and the current year the change in the difference in overall emissions between the base year and the current year, expressed as a percentage, resulting from a 1 percent increase in emissions of a given source category/gas combination in the current year only
Type B Sensitivity
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ERTDI Research Programme
The ERTDI programme has allocated approximately €6m for climate change research Areas identified from the NCCS (2000), EPA Millennium Report (2000) and discussions with stakeholders Aims Support GHG inventory reporting requirements Provide scientific information to support policy and effective participation and negotiation Develop research capacity Provide new data specific to Ireland
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Impacts of Climate Change
Completed and published Studies of likely impacts of climate change in Ireland Indicators of climate change Reports available
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Research on GHGs – F-gases
Completed and published Inventory time-series for f-gases 1995-2001 Comparison of top-down and bottom-up methods Inverse modelling Reports available
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Research on GHGs -LUCF
Filling the information gaps in LUCF: Determine soil and biomass carbon stocks Develop robust methods for emissions/removals in LUCF categories 5.B, 5.C and 5.D Special consideration for peatlands Further development of CARBWARE model for LUCF category 5.A aimed at reporting under the Kyoto Protocol
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Research on GHGs -Agriculture
More Accurate Emissions for Agriculture: determine country-specific CH4 emission factors for cattle (Tier 2 methods) determine country-specific N2O emission factors for direct emissions (2 methods) develop methods to account for the factors that influence direct N2O emissions undertake extensive farm surveys to fully quantify N excretion and AWMS
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Data Management System/COE
climate change database COE project data management system for research data archive and retrieval systems all GHG data reporting specific to National Climate Change Strategy application to emission projections archive facility for other relevant EPA data provides for integrated analyses of key data provides stakeholder and public access
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Inventory Data Users Group
Supports implementation of the National Climate Change Strategy Aims to improve inventory capacity Develops collaboration among data suppliers Identifies data needs, new data sources Templates for specific data capture Internal review of inventories
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Ireland is furthest from its Distance to Kyoto Target (23.9 Percent points)
Ireland Spain Portugal Austria Denmark Italy Belgium Greece Netherlands Finland France UK Sweden Germany Luxembourg
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Distance to Kyoto Target in 2001 Percent points (1990 = 100%)
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40.5 Monaco Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Canada Australia New Zealand United States of America Austria Japan Norway Italy Belgium Finland Netherlands Switzerland Denmark Liechtenstein France Slovenia -2.0 -3.1 -4.1 -11.7 -18.0 -22.7 -22.9 -30.3 -30.6 -32.2 -38.3 -43.9 -46.6 -50.5 -54.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -60.6 European Community Sweden Iceland United Kingdom Germany Hungary Czech Republic Croatia Slovakia Poland Russian federation Romania Belarus Ukraine Bulgaria Estonia Luxembourg Lithuania Latvia 18.5 18.2 17.2 13.0 10.0 9.5 8.1 7.2 6.7 4.7 4.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.8 36.4 33.1 31.5 26.1
-25.0
-45.0
-65.0
-85.0
55.0
35.0
Change relative to 1990 (%)
15.0
-5.0
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Index (1990=100)
100
110
120
130
140
60
70
80
90
National GHG Total/KP target
National Total
KP Target path
Index(1990=100)
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19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10
Review of GHG Inventories
Objectives provide for a periodic detailed assessment of inventory methods, procedures & methodologies; examine institutional arrangements, documentation, record keeping, paper trail; examine consistency with UNFCCC reporting guidelines, IPCC guidelines and GPG; identify areas for improvement; assist Parties; ensure that the COP has adequate information on GHG emissions and on their trends
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Annual Review
Review Guidelines (COP8) all Annex I Parties to be reviewed annually; up to 8 in-country reviews; up to 8 Parties in centralized review; up to 5 Parties in desk reviews
Reviews in 2003 in-country reviews of Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Czech Republic, Ireland, Japan, Romania, Spain; 18 Parties in centralized review and 3 in desk review
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