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Irrigation and Development in So

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					Irrigation and Development in
           South Asia
         Richard Palmer-Jones
     School of Development Studies,
        University of East Anglia,
       South Asian Development,
               Spring 2007
Irrigation - colonial legacies, policy
             analysis, etc.
• Irrigation management on the Ganges
  Canal
  – Productive and protective irrigation
  – Localisation
  – Warabandi
     • User groups and rotational irrigation
• On-Farm water management
• Water Lords and Water Markets
  – Groundwater based irrigation service markets
   Agro-ecological conditions, irrigation
development and poverty reduction in India
• Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction
  – Cross-state and time series analysis
    • Initial conditions & public investments
       – Irrigation, literacy, HYVs, public expenditures
  – NSSR ….
    • Initial Conditions
       – Agro-ecological, hydro-geological and socio-economic
The determinants of rural poverty (HCR): OLS and ML estimates
Columns              1a            1b          2           3
Method               OLS           OLS         ML          ML
                                               Spatial     Spatial lag
                                               error
Variable
Constant             63.9          54.7        54.2        39.4
Ag_grth              -27.2***      -32.9***    -31.9***    -26.2***
SC                                 0.690**     0.665**     0.549*
ST                                 0.199a      0.196a      0.180a
Sm_farm                            -0.130      -0.127      -0.121
Ag_lab                             0.109       0.114       0.061
W_HCR                                                      0.317*
                                              0.041
N (df)               55 (53)       55 (49)     55 (49)     55 (48)
R-squared            0.26          0.406       0.386       0.433
Lik                  -219.0        -213.1      0.386       -211.2
AIC                  -442.1        -438.3      -438.3      -436.4
Siq-sq                                         136.0       123.9
Sig-sq (ML)          168.7         136.1
Moran’s I            0.026         0.422
Robust LM (error)    0.081         0.002
Robust LM (lag)      0.005         0.0002
Notes: ***, **, * = p < 0.001, 0.01. 0.05; a: p < 0.1
The spatial weights matrix is the standard contiguity matrix with
NSS regions as units of observation
The determinants of agricultural growth (Ag_grth): OLS and ML estimates
Columns             1           2                3             4             5             6             7
Method              OLS         ML               ML            ML            ML            ML            ML
                                Standard contiguity matrix     State contiguity matrix     AEZ contiguity matrix
                                Spatial error    Spatial lag   Spatial       Spatial lag   Spatial error Spatial lag
                                                               error
Variable
Constant            0.007       0.008839         0.453581      0.00918       0.0040        0.0096        0.0033
Grth_fert           0.0147      0.0122           0.0066        0.00838       0.0068        0.0136        0.0043
Grth_ml             -0.0435a    -0.028           -0.037a       -0.0322       -0.0392a      -0.0403a      -0.0410*
Grth_tract          0.049***    0.0414***         0.037***     0.0429***     0.0405***     0.0479***     0.0365***
Level_irr62         0.0151***   0.009**          0.009***      0.0107***     0.0101***     0.0110***     0.0096***
Grth_irr            0.0420*     0.051**          0.038*        0.0447*       0.0388*       0.0411*       0.0423*
W_Ag_grth                                        0.453***                    0.3516***                   0.4278***
                               0.513***                       0.3572                      0.611***
N (df)              268 (261)   268 (261)        268 (260)     268 (261)     268 (260)     268 (261)     268 (260)
Rsq                 0.2057      0.136            0.273         0.145         0.254         0.154         0.277
Lik                 881.6       899.396          900.1         892.2         895.2         891.0         900.3
AIC                 -1749.2     -1784.79         -1784.2       -1770.4       -1774.5       -1768.1       -1784.6
Siq-sq                          6.7e-005         6.7e-005      7.24e-005     7.08e-005     7.60e-005     6.78e-005
Sig-sq (ML)          8.1e-5
Moran’s I           0.000000
Robust LM (error)   0.623120
Robust LM (lag)     0.001798
                 Poor system performance
 Agency
 incentives




  Underfunding                                   Farmer
  of O&M                                         dissatifaction


                                                                  Farmer
                                                                  political
                                                                  lobbying
Fiscal crisis                        Low fee payment
of state
                                                         Low
                                                         irrigation
                                                         rates

                 Low cost recovery
Increasing
irrigation
costs
 Structure of Water Control on Protective Irrigation (after Millinga, 2003)




                                                ney & co operatio
                                             Mo                   n
Irrigation
Department                                                                                                         Politicians
Officials
                                                                     Tran sfers




                                                     W
                                                      a te




                                                                                      s
                                                                                  Vote
                                                                 r




                                                                                                                                       n I.D.
         Har a




                                                                                                                                      o
                                                                                                                                   ce
               ssm




                                                                                                                                en
                 en
                   t                                                                                                              lu
                                                                                                                             I nf
                                                              Rich and
                                                              middle
                                                              peasants
                                                                   cy




                                                                                                  La
                                                                         a
                                                        up port, legiti m




                                                                                                    bou
                                                                                  Em
                       Con ditina l wa ter




                                                                                                       r, intere st, rent,
                                                                                  ploy
                                                                                      men t, cred
                                                    al s
                                               itic




                                                                                                 it

                                                                                                      etc
                                             ol                     P




                                                            Small and
                                                            poor
                                                            peasants

				
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