Real Estate Policy and Real Estate Market Analysis

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					Real Estate Policy and Real Estate Market Analysis
Since 1994, the State Council issued "on deepening the urban housing
system reform decisions," counting, and real estate reforms have been
carried out for 14 years. Of the real estate market and real estate policy. For further
implement the scientific concept of development, building a well with some
theoretical and practical significance.
First, real estate major policy review
1.43 document. July 1994 the State Council issued "on deepening the
urban housing system reform decision" to establish the core content is
targeted at low-income families, with the nature of the social security system and
affordable housing to high-income Families of commercial housing supply to body .
2.23 document. July 1998 the State Council issued "on further deepening
the urban housing system reform to speed up housing construction in the
notice", the core content is the housing industry as a new economic growth
points, establish and improve affordable housing based multi-level urban housing
supply system .
3.18 document. August 2003 the State Council issued "on the promotion of
sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market notice", the
core of the realization of most families to buy or rent a common commercial housing.
4. State 8. March 2005 the State Council issued the "stable housing prices
on the real notice" (known as the State 8), the core is stable house prices,
to avoid the real estate market fluctuations, economic stability and social development
5. State 6. May 2006 the State Council issued nine ministries and commissions
"to adjust the housing supply structure on the stability of the views of
housing prices" (known as the State 6), the core content is focused on
developing low-cost, small and medium size apartment.
6.24 document. August 2007 the State Council issued "on the settlement of
the housing difficulties of urban low-income families a number of views."
That housing is an important livelihood issues, the core of urban low-income families
solve their housing problems.
Second, the real estate market problems
1. Real estate market bubble grows bigger and bigger. July 2003 National Average
price of 2,416 yuan per square meter, Beijing was the highest 4693 yuan; in
November 2007 the national average price of about 4200 yuan. Beijing was 15,162
yuan. Beijing housing prices and income in 2003 than for the l: 9.2007 years 1:17.
The whole country, the 2003 l: 8.5; 2007 around 1:10 years. National real estate
market bubble in varying degrees the problem.
2. Real estate market carries a high financial risks. The past decade, the real estate
market, how many bank loans. This figure has never been released before, I can only
do one projection. Bank loans to house buyers in the 7 trillion or so. Bank loans to
developers about 3 trillion. If house prices fall, the entire national economy and the
impact of people's lives is difficult to estimate.
3. Serious imbalance in the real estate structure. Structural imbalance in the real estate
market mainly in commercial housing, affordable housing, the proportion of low-rent
housing imbalance, the big house and the imbalance in medium two. Affordable
housing and low-rent housing and real estate development in medium and less than
20% of total.
4. Real estate market widening gap between rich and poor. Is the largest real estate
developers who profit. To calculate all the development funds, profit margins at least
50%; If the calculation of own funds. More than 200% profit margin. Speculators are
also lucrative, if calculating own funds, at least above 100% profits. Party and
government cadres at all levels, institutions and staff are beneficiaries of the
monopoly. Basically, these people have enjoyed the benefits of affordable housing.
Some of them even have two or even more than two houses. Wealthy class to buy a
house as investment, is also a beneficiary of the real estate bubble. Affordable housing
was intended for middle and lower income groups, but was bought up as a wealthy
investment tool. Some had to pay high prices for commercial housing in low-income
groups, as "house slaves"; afford to buy homes in low-income
housing can only hope will be a sigh. These phenomena dragged big gap.
Third, the real estate policy failures is the main reason for the housing market
China's real estate market caused the current problem for many reasons,
such as developers, driven by the interests of the credit system, imperfect. But I think
the main reason is the Government's policy failures.
1.1998 years of housing reform is the starting point of focusing on economic
development and solve the people's livelihood supplement.
In 1998 China's macroeconomic situation is very serious, how to maintain
rapid economic growth has become an urgent problem. The State Council has taken to
further deepen the reform, medical reform, housing reform, state enterprise reform
and other measures. 23 document is produced in this background, the housing reform
to promote economic growth in the first place.
Real estate is an economic issue, but it is the people's livelihood, and
housing is a fundamental human rights. Over the years, both in theoretical circles or in
the actual process of the administration, how to deal with economic development and
improve people's livelihood problems errors, reversed the relationship
between ends and means. The means as an end in order to develop with the
development. Economic development is a means to improve the livelihood of the
people is the goal. General Secretary Hu Jintao clearly pointed out the relationship
between the two, development rely on the people, development for the people, the
fruits of development to be shared by the people.
2.2003 18-year paper as a starting point for real estate car bolted.
2003 real estate market has begun to bubble, Bank of China real estate market
demands vigilance of financial risk. Unfortunately, the State Department missed the
best time of real estate regulation. Not only failed to cool the hot real estate market,
but fuel, release, drafted by the Ministry of Construction "on promoting the
healthy development of the real estate market continues to notice." The
new programmatic document, to affordable housing to the policy changed to
commercial housing-based policy. Further strengthen the real estate market in the
economic development status and role, and further weakened the people's
livelihood. Since then, the real estate market bubble is growing. National house prices
rose more than 60%, Beijing house prices up more than 200%.
3.       Eight       countries       and      six       countries      have      become
The end of 2004 the central government began to realize that the real estate market
bubble. March 2005 the State Council issued the "National 8",
began the real estate market macro-control. May 2006 "State 6"
introduced to further strengthen macro-control real estate market. However, control
measures not only failed to stabilize housing prices. In contrast, house prices soared in
the regulation. Why real estate macro control policy did not work to become
"air conditioning"?
First, the face of frenzied real estate Mercedes-Benz vehicles, the central government
riding a tiger, then a legislator, not the kill, so the real estate bubble quickly burst.
Real estate has become a pillar industry of China. Large amount of bank loans and a
large number of practitioners so that the impact of very large bubble burst. It is based
on certain misgivings, the central government adopted a "stable
prices", "avoid big ups and downs" of the
compromise policy, which is no choice.
Second, local government and central government interests are inconsistent.
Implementation of the central government's policy is not active. On local
government leaders, developing real estate market is almost non-profits with.
Increased GDP, increased revenue, increased performance. Driven by the interests of
the local government has become the biggest real estate bubble blowing by, the
implementation of the central macro-control policy, not proactive, or even a double
Finally, the vested interest groups to resist central government's
macro-control policies. Represented by real estate developers, government officials,
academics and the media in which the interest groups opposed to the central bank
issued a notice to strengthen credit management. Real estate interests in some degree
to the central government policy formulation and implementation.
Fourth, the proposed housing policy
August 7, 2007 the State Council issued Document No. 24. Outset that
"housing is an important livelihood issues," the
party's 17 a lot of attention and improve people's livelihood with
the issues that important position. This indicates that the central
government's housing policy shifted from the focus on the economy to
protect and improve people's livelihood based. People's
livelihood is a fundamental issue in the real estate market. How do real estate
development and implementation of scientific policy, the possible losses down to the
lowest point of the central government must face and urgent problem.
1. Strengthen low-cost housing and affordable housing construction. Provisions of the
State Council document No. 24 Construction of low-rent room large enough force, the
construction of affordable housing on the scale and proportion, are not clearly defined.
Not only do not enjoy low-cost housing and affordable housing they can not afford
ordinary commercial housing in middle-income families how to do? Central
Government should change the focus on the development of common commercial
policy, to develop low-cost housing and affordable housing construction, to really set
up to affordable housing real estate market system.
2. Use tax measures to reduce blindness due to the development of the real estate
market caused by unfair. Wealthy class in China today, accounting for a large number
of real estate resources, exacerbating the wealth gap and social injustice. The state
should levy property taxes and resources as soon as possible occupancy tax, with
multiple sets of large-family houses and have especially the so-called luxury overtax;
increase the cost of housing for the rich and the speculators in the real estate
speculators cost. To such tax for low-cost housing construction, narrow the wealth gap
and reduce social inequality.
3. Strengthen the real estate credit and financial risk control. Currently, commercial
banks 40% of the second suite down payment practice, this does not entirely avoid
financial risks. The central bank should raise the ratio of the second suite down
payment to 70%, it is best to refuse to provide loans for second homes.
4. Central Government should be prepared to deal with the real estate bubble ready to
burst. General Secretary Hu Jintao instructed to be prepared to guard against risk. The
central government has the real estate bubble awareness and prevention, began to
follow a prudent fiscal policy and tight monetary policy. Risk prevention and
lowering the risk of loss systems engineering, just to prevent the financial sector is not
- Article from the "frontier theory" of: Zhang Group