Macroeconomic simplistic Simplistic macroeconomic issues ?--- Reading notes Previous study of macroeconomic, feeling very vague, that some, but not a system, many of the macro on specific issues, understanding Debu through, he could not. This time, the study prepared by the Ministry of Commerce, &quot;Macroeconomics&quot;, feeling a great harvest of the previous study were summarized, but also to grasp the point, the Great Books relaxed than before. General point: the macroeconomic to simplify. Grasp the macro economy, we must first grasp its structure, key concepts and principles, analysis and so on. First, macroeconomic performance, objectives, research and analysis 1. Run (four sectors: residents, businesses, government, foreign): (1) the conditions of economic equilibrium: investment + government purchases + net exports = savings + government revenue (taxes - transfer payments) + imports (2) the center of the macroeconomic issues: the decision of the national income (the Keynesian effective demand). 2. Macro (policy) objectives (1) economic growth. Economic growth involves four issues: economic growth can be achieved; economic growth that the smooth, short-term fluctuations do not appear larger; economy can achieve long-term sustainable growth; economic growth is a valid growth, which can bring about national welfare and social benefits of synchronous growth. The economic cycle of four phases: recovery, prosperity, recession, depression. (2) full employment (community employment) Okun&#39;s Law: the United States found the famous economist Aseaoken cycle fluctuations in the rate of economic growth and the empirical relationship between the unemployment rate, that is when the real GDP growth relative to potential GDP growth (the United States generally defined as 3 %) decreased by 2%, the unemployment rate increased by about 1%; when real GDP growth relative to potential GDP growth increased by 2%, the unemployment rate fell by about 1%, this rule of thumb in the name of its discoverer, called the Austrian positive law. Potential GDP Okun first proposed this concept, and it is Zhi maintaining the stability of relative prices, a State economy produced the greatest value. Potential GDP, also known as full employment GDP. (3) price level stability (the general price level) A country&#39;s price level does not lower the better, not better. Macroeconomic analysis and the prices to be resolved is: What are the causes of price changes? What level of price changes, economic performance can bear? Tonghua inflation and deflation in place to economic and social harm? Government to take measures to curb inflation and deflation? (4) balance of payments (external balance) Target refers to the internal balance of economic growth, full employment and price stability, external balance refers to balance of payments target. 3. The main task of macroeconomic management in China: To maintain steady economic growth; promote economic structural optimization; improve macro-economic benefits; greater emphasis on social equity. 4. Analysis of macro-economic aspects should be noted that 6 (1) to measure: what indicators to use to analyze and evaluate GDP (gross domestic product, geographic space), GNP (gross national product to national operator), NDP (net domestic product), NI (national income), PI (personal income), DPI (disposable personal income). (2) balance: The total supply and total demand and income decision. From the three major markets (product market, money market or financial markets, labor market) of the total supply and total demand, analysis of potential problems of economic operation to adjust supply and demand, to maintain the macroeconomic balance. (3) stability: economic fluctuations and economic cycles. Of reason? Why does the economic cycle? How to avoid big fluctuations in the economy? (4) Monitoring: inflation and unemployment. Short-term: the government is most concerned about inflation and unemployment, is the focus of the annual monitoring of economic performance. (5) dynamic: economic growth and economic development. From long-term study of the economic growth momentum and its influencing factors, focusing on sustainable economic development and the corresponding long-term economic strategy. (6) Regulation: What measures adopted by the Government (fiscal, monetary, industrial and other macroeconomic policies), how to select control objectives, how to employ various means to effectively regulate the economy, how to assess the effects of policy control. 5. The consensus of macroeconomic school Macroeconomic School (Keynesian, Neoclassical Synthesis, Monetarist, New Classical, New Keynesian) to macroeconomic problems, the following consensus: (1) in the long run, the total output capacity to determine the living level; (2) in the short run, aggregate demand can affect output; (3) the expected impact of future economic behavior of the current period; (4) in the long run, the total output will eventually be restored to its natural level, the output level depends on the natural rate of unemployment, the level of capital stock and technology. Second, aggregate demand and aggregate supply 1. Macroeconomics main tasks: inspection that the main macroeconomic indicators, such as production, prices, employment, interest rates, consumption, investment, taxation, government consumption, exchange rates, import and export, is determined by what factor . Basically, the indicator is the total demand and total supply by the interaction of the decision. Most macro-economic phenomena, can be attributed to aggregate demand and aggregate supply interaction. 2. Aggregate demand: including consumption, investment, net exports, that is, &quot;Troika&quot;; multiplier principle. (1) consumer demand: the marginal propensity to consume different (lower income, the higher the marginal propensity to consume); consumption structure (the Engel coefficient: The more family income, consumption expenditure used to buy food the smaller proportion of the cost). (2) investment demand: According to material form of investment, including investment in fixed assets and inventory investment, but often refers to fixed asset investment. Diminishing marginal returns of capital (when the capital stock reaches a certain level, additional capital gains will be lower and lower). When adding a unit of capital is equal to the revenue generated by its investment cost, investment reached the optimal level. The main factors affecting investment: Investment is expected to return, the investment cost. (3) external demand Trade impact on a country&#39;s economy, mainly for the optimal allocation of economic factors, to improve the macro-economic efficiency and improve the positive impact of the economic structure, is much larger than the direct pull of the GDP. 3. The international demand for leading three modes: U.S. consumer-led model, the East Asian export-led model, the former Soviet Union and Russia&#39;s investment-led model. 4. Aggregate demand and aggregate supply analysis, policy implications: When the economy is the deviation of the time (short-term, when resources are not fully utilized), the Government&#39;s macroeconomic policy can be used to actively intervene in the economy running (for example, expansionary fiscal and monetary policies to expand aggregate demand) to improve the level of employment and output; when the economy normal operation, the Government should not intervene in economic operation. Third, economic growth and economic development 1. Short-term: the general level of economic activity in major decisions by the aggregate demand; long: factors determining economic growth momentum is required from the analysis of aggregate supply. 2. The decisive factor of economic growth: Physical capital (machines, equipment, plant, raw materials, etc.), human capital, natural resources, science and technology and management techniques, economic system (New Institutional Economics) 3. Economic growth model: Harrod - Domar growth model (short-term fluctuations in the economy is not the same as the actual growth rate desired growth rate; from the long term, the desired rate of growth is inconsistent with the natural growth rate will lead to economic fluctuations; to achieve long-term stable economic growth conditions: the actual growth rate, a desired growth rate, natural growth rate of three are equal). New Cambridge economic growth model: reveals how changes in income distribution, savings rates, to achieve steady economic growth. Solow model (that is, the neoclassical growth model, also known as exogenous growth theory, the savings rate to improve the steady state capital stock and output level has a positive impact; technological progress is the key factor of economic growth; population growth will lead to labor increase and total output increase). Endogenous growth theory (new growth theory, theory of ideas and policy proposals: the government could provide subsidies for research and development to achieve the objective of promoting economic growth; to the Government to reduce tariffs, capital tax and other policy measures to encourage capital accumulation and international trade, to promote economic growth; emphasis on human capital, technological progress and government functions in promoting economic growth, the importance of improving social welfare). 4. ≠ economic development, economic growth, often for &quot;growth without development&quot; phenomenon. Green GDP Index: Measuring the quality and efficiency of economic growth, the total available green GDP index. China, mainly through the following indicators reflect the quality of economic growth: unit GDP energy consumption; major pollutant emissions; total factor productivity; financial income; corporate profit margins; per capita income. 5 major feature of economic development: per capita GDP growth rate higher; productivity improved faster; fast changing economic structure; social structure and change of ideas quickly; and foreign economic ties strengthened. 5. Transformation of economic growth (extensive, intensive) Fourth, the economic structure (the proportion of economic relations within and between all the links) 1. Including the industrial structure, regional economic structure, urban and rural economic structure, ownership structure, product structure, demand structure, the structure of income distribution, employment structure. 2. Structure: (1) Impact factors: There are three types, the demand side: including income levels, income structure, personal consumption structure; production areas include: technology and production factors (natural resources, labor and capital); system: the country&#39;s economy, including policy and other institutional factors, such as market sophistication and size of the liquidity factor. Three division structure: the division of China&#39;s industry standards: the primary industry, including agriculture (forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, etc.), the secondary industry, including industry (in mining, manufacturing, water, electricity, etc.) and construction, The remaining industry tertiary industry, tertiary industry can be divided into circulation and service sectors. Three industries in the position and the proportion of macro-economic structure, with three indicators: the employment of all industries the proportion of total employment; the industry added value created by the share of total GDP; the industry accounted for the total capital amount of capital ratio. (2) evolution. Petty Clark&#39;s Law: the steady decline in employment in primary industry, secondary and tertiary industries increased employment. Kuznets law: With economic development, primary industries to achieve the national income, the proportion of national income in the whole, showed a downward trend, while the second and tertiary industries, the proportion of the rise. Industrial structure: Factor intensity of view, can be divided into labor, capital, technology-intensive. Industrialization stage: heavy industrialization - high degree of processing - technology intensification (Hoffman&#39;s Law: In the manufacturing sector, consumer goods industry is declining, increasing the proportion of capital goods industries) (3) leading industry led to non-leading industries (direction and intensity) (4) industrial transfer: the result of economic globalization; directly related to the advantages of conversion between national economies and the world economic pattern of the shift. The past 50 years, there have been three large-scale global industrial transfer. 3. Regional economic structure (1) the spatial structure of economic regional development patterns: growth pole model (reflected in pole position: sector growth center [as an economic space on a driven industry]; room for growth center [as the accumulation of geographical space industry town. the impact on the surrounding area: polarization effects, diffusion effects]; point axis of development. (2) Regional Economy: regional division; Regional Conflict. 4. Urban and rural economic structure: (1) meaning: that of capital, land, labor and other production factors in the distribution patterns between urban and rural areas and proportion. (2) developing countries, urban-rural dual economic structure. (3) urban-rural dual economic structure theory: Lewis model; Higgins binary system of technology; Fei Han - Grannys binary system model; Schultz&#39;s theory of transformation of traditional agriculture. 5, macroeconomic issues and the macro-control (A) of the problem: employment (efficiency), price, income distribution, social security (equity). 1. Unemployment types: cyclical, structural transformation, market barriers, and frictional. 2. Price level (1) China&#39;s Price Index Type: consumer price index, retail price index, producer price index, capital goods price index. (2) the type of inflation (based on the price rise: mild, 10%; accelerated, 10% -100%; malignant: 100%. According to the cause: demand-driven, cost-push, structural, hybrid-driven ). The relationship between inflation and unemployment - the Phillips Curve: Unemployment and inflation there is an alternative relationship, that the inflation rate, unemployment is low; inflation rate is low, unemployment is high. From a side note to reduce the inflation rate and reduce the unemployment rate between the two conflicting objectives. Most economists believe: in short, alternating between inflation and unemployment relationship; in the long term, inflation and unemployment, there is no alternative relationship (due to the expected inflation rate consistent with the actual inflation rate, it does not cause inflation employment growth). 3. Income Distribution Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. Lorenz curve: a certain level of income that the number of total population, and their percentage of total income received quantitative relationship between the (45 degree line of complete equality line). Gini coefficient: The Lorenz curve and the total (not) equal the folder line area ratio of a value, to reflect differences in the overall level of income distribution, a measure of inequality indicators (the greater the greater the difference between income distribution, said: 0.2 below, a high degree of equalization of income distribution; 0.2-0.3, relatively equal; 0.3-0.4, the income gap is reasonable; 0.4 above, the income gap is too large; 0.6 or above, highly uneven.) (B) of the macro-control 1. Means: that macroeconomic policies, mainly fiscal, monetary, industrial policy (1) fiscal policy: ① instruments include: taxes, bonds, government purchases, transfer payments. The main target of regulation: the total demand. ② Category: According to the Financial revenue and expenditure activities of the socio-economic effects, divided into: expansive, constrictive and neutral fiscal policy. According to adjust the economic cycle, included: automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy. ③ effects: multiplier effect and crowding-out effect. ④ Function Finance and Public Finance Functional Finance: income and expenditure budget of fiscal policy subject to macro-control needed to maintain macroeconomic running smoothly. Public Finance: Government by the collective will of the public to provide the market mechanism can not effectively provide public goods to meet the needs of the community of public distribution of economic activity or activities. It is not a financial transfer payment, nor is it purely national welfare policy, macroeconomic adjustment to run the government, the market mechanism to make up for deficiencies in a policy tool, is the government spending (the purchase) of a form. (2) monetary policy: ① use monetary policy to adjust the overall demand, the same should adhere to the &quot;counter-cyclical&quot; principle: in the doldrums, the expansion; prosperity or high inflation, the tightening. ② measure: (from high to low) M0: cash in circulation. And consumer price changes are closely related. M1: M0 + demand deposits + units travelers checks, credit card type deposits. For the narrow money supply, the situation reflects the tightness of enterprise funds. M2: M1 + time deposits + savings deposits of residents unit. Industry, the broad money supply, reflecting changes in aggregate demand. M3: M2 + finance + commercial paper + large bond negotiable certificates of deposit. L: M3 + other current assets, such as savings bonds and short-term financial bonds and other valuable. ③ The main tools: open market operations; legal reserve system; discount rate. ④ limitations: one, a liquidity trap: the interest rates already so low, the central bank to increase money supply through lowering interest rates again, it will not increase investment and consumption. Fiscal policy and monetary policy mix: Tinbergen rule: the number of independent policy goal to achieve, at least by the number of species of the main independent and effective policy instruments. (3) Industrial Policy: ① meaning: refers primarily to the government to change the allocation of resources between industries and enterprises in a variety of industries, business activities and the policies adopted. It is government intervention in the allocation of economic resources, reflecting the government&#39;s economic development strategy to promote the rationalization of industrial structure and Advancement, improve the international competitiveness of domestic products. ② main elements: industrial policy, industrial organization policy, industrial technology policy, industrial policy on regional distribution. The focus of industrial organization policy has two aspects: to support a more competitive enterprises to enable them to scale as soon as possible; to encourage SMEs and large enterprises cooperation and speed up development in order to maintain the economic vitality and to meet employment needs. ③ development factors to be considered: based on national conditions; have fiscal and monetary policy supporting; follow the general rules of market economy. 2. Reason: inherent cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations; the market mechanism is difficult to fully play a role. 3. Type: contraction type, expansion type, structure type 4. Features: Volume control and structural control on the other; demand and supply control integrated control; efficient combination of regulation and fair regulation; economic regulation and control means and a combination of non-economic regulation and control. ? ? ? ?
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