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UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING- EVERY 1500 YEARS

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					UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING: EVERY 1500 YEARS?
Howard Maccabee, PhD, MD, FACR
Radiation Oncologist Asst. Clinical Prof. UCSF Founder, Doctors for Disaster Preparedness

WINTER 2007

WHO AM I? WHY AM I INTERESTED? MY BIAS VERSUS OTHERS.
• Sources: Recent, most relevant
• Patrick J. Michaels, Ed., Shattered Consensus (The True State of Global Warming) Rowman and Littlefield (2005) • S. Fred Singer and Dennis Avery, Unstoppable Global Warming Rowman and Littlefield (2007) • Technical references listed on graphics. Additional bibliography at end.

ANTHROPOGENIC GLOBAL WARMING
• • • • • The Hypothesis The Greenhouse Effect Anthropogenic (CO2) Hypothesis Energy Flow Schematic Numerical Energetics Estimation

GREENHOUSE EFFECT: A prerequisite for life on earth, the greenhouse effect occurs when infrared radiation (heat) is retained within the atmosphere.

Note 342=1370÷4 (ave. during 24h)

See also: Schneider (1987) Sci.Am. 256(5) 72-80

PROBLEMS WITH GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (GCM)
• Fluctuations in energy flow “forcings” • Fluctuations greater than human CO2 contribution • CO2 dissolved in oceans • H2O as greenhouse gas/clouds vs. vapor • Time correlation of CO2 vs. temperature • Can temperature increase cause CO2 increase?

CO2
T

CH4

Nature, Vol.388, p.431, 3 June 1999

DEFICIENCIES OF GCM PREDICTIONS
Doesn’t account for Antarctic cooling Antarctic ice increasing, not melting Greenland temperatures cooling/contra Gore Doesn’t explain or predict El Nino Doesn’t explain or predict differences between surface temperatures versus atmosphere • Dependence on cloud variability • Biases in IPCC authors favoring Kyoto • • • • •

Antarctic Temperature Trends, 1966-2000, From Doran, et al., p.519, Nature 415 (2002) 517-20

Ice Mass Change (elevation change) Observed over the East Antarctic Ice Sheet from Davis, et al., p.1899, who attributed the rise In increasing snowfall, which is a logical consequence of warming the ocean surrounding Antarctica. Science 308 (2005) 1898-1901.

Composite Greenland Temperatures: Geophys.Res. Lett.30 (2003) 31-33

ie 0.6° C↑ in 50 yr.

(Cont.)

NATURAL CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESIS
• Solar radiation as primary input (“forcing”) • Solar irradiance increased by 0.05% per decade in 30 years, ie 0.15% increase compared to 0.20% increase T (0.6°/300°k) • Sun’s coronal magnetic field has doubled in past 100 years! • Temperature change is correlated with solar cycle • Climate history shows previous cycles, not related to anthropogenic CO2 • Climate history correlated with solar magnetic variation • Are we beginning a new 1500 year (± 500) warming cycle?

Nature, Vol.399, p.438, 3 June 1999

Note doubling of solar magnetic flux in 100 yrs.

LIA

MWP

From Baliunas & Michaels, et al. 2005

MWP
South Pole

Greenland

LIA

PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
• Natural cycles, especially solar irradiance, magnetic fields and cosmic ray variation, on scales of 11 to 1500 years, are probably unstoppable, and greater determinates of climate change than human activities. • Anthropogenic CO2 effects are of similar or lesser magnitude than El Nino, volcanic explosions, or variations of solar irradiance. • If concerned about global, regional or local warming, what can be done?

AMELIORATION
• Attempts to decrease CO2 emissions (eg Kyoto) may cause very little temperature change. REMEMBER: slow warming has benefits in many situations. • EXAMPLES:
• Hybrid automobiles/trucks; plug-in hybrids? • Decrease in fossil fueled electrical generation in favor of nuclear power. • Remember ethanol, hydrogen and biomass generate CO2 proportional to energy generated. • Solar and wind generation still not feasible on commercial scales.

MITIGATION PROPOSALS
1. 2. 3. 4.
5.

6.
7.

Paul Crutzen: SO2 dispersion (like volcanoes) Lowell Wood: aerosolized metallic particles in atmosphere (remember Pinatubo dropped regional temp by 1°) Edward Teller: stimulate phytoplankton to absorb more CO2 (iron fertilization?) (cf P. Falkowski, Scientific American, August 2002 E. Marchetti: pump CO2 underground or into oceans John Latham: create more clouds or make them more reflective Roger Angel/Stewart Brand: launch a giant sun shade into space? Remember negative feedback from biosphere on CO2: Increase Biomass?

ADAPTATION
Humans have adapted to climate changes for all human history, and have prospered during 0.6° rise in past 30 years. (Note that per capita CO2 emission is
already decreasing in advanced nations.)

Remember that temperature rise from CO2 is slowing down, not accelerating, because response is logarithmic. Most of CO2 effect has already occurred. Architectural changes, insulation, air conditioning. Remember that people in advanced nations such as U.S. are already voluntarily moving toward warmer climates.

ECONOMIC and AGRICULTURAL EFFECTS of CLIMATE CHANGE
6CO2 + 6H2O + LIGHT = C6H12O6+6O2↑
Increasing CO2 drives photosynthesis; more biomass, more food crops, more trees, more rain forest, etc.: more CO2 absorption. More food causes less starvation, less poverty for 1-2 billion subsistence farmers, etc. The “Green Revolution” and adaptation to more CO2 and warmer surface temps has been underway for five decades. Remember there is more forest biomass in US now than prior 100 years. Kyoto process penalizes CO2 emission, but does not credit CO2 absorption. Most greenhouse warming occurs at night, extending range of grain production further North (in NH) and reducing chance of crop and fruit loss to freezing. Penalties on CO2 emission will severely reduce industrial and economic growth in developing world, eg. China, India, Brazil, etc. which are currently excluded by Kyoto. Expected growth of CO2 production by Chinese coal-fired power plants is estimated to be five times the potential reduction from “Kyoto.” (N.Y. Times 6/11/06, p.1)

BENEFITS and RISKS for HUMAN HEALTH
• More lives are saved from warmer winters than are lost from hotter summers. (Well known to hospital staff in urban areas.) • Increased mortality from summer high temps is already disappearing in the US, due to air conditioners, fans, shelters, education, etc. • The claims of spread of malaria and other “vector-borne” diseases are unsupported. These are more beneficial effects from DDT, swamp drainage, screens, etc. than harmful effects from a 1-2° temp change. • Remember that malaria was endemic to most of the central and eastern US in the 19th century, before DDT or major CO2 production. • The benefits to world health from reducing starvation, decreasing food cost and increasing availability of fresh fruits and vegetables, are obvious.

CONCLUSIONS
1. Anthropogenic CO2 is rising, and average temperatures are increasing slowly in the Northern Hemisphere, but “the sky is not falling.” Most of the climate change is due to natural causes, which are unstoppable. We are not in a climate crisis. There is no need to accept economic disaster or penalize the poor. Much can be done with amelioration, mitigation, and continued adaptation. We need more nuclear power and more sound research, and less fear-mongering.

2.

3.

BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Crichton, Michael State of Fear, Harper Collins (2004) • Lomborg, Bjorn The Skeptical Environmentalist, Cambridge (2001) • Michaels, Patrick J. (Ed.) Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming, Rowman & Littlefield (2005) • Milloy, Steven JunkScience.com, esp. “The Real Inconvenient Truth” April 21, 2006 • Ponte, Lowell The Cooling, Prentice-Hall (1976) (Recommended by Stephen H. Schneider) • Schneider, Stephen H. Global Warming Sierra Club (1989) • Singer, S. Fred and Avery, Dennis T. Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 Years, Rowman & Littlefield (2007) • Soon, Willie W-H. and Yaskell, Steven H. The Maunder-Minimum and the Variable Sun-Earth Connection, World Scientific (2003)


				
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