Global Warming- Defining and Solving the Problem

Global Warming: Defining and Solving the Problem Is global warming really a problem? If so, what kind is it? - Emissions Reduction, or Energy Conversion? And how is it to be solved? Steven H. Johnson The Wallcharts Workshop September 19, 2006 page 1 9/19/2006 Topics • Reviewing the basics • Reframing the issue • How a nation mobilizes for energy conversion • Getting the ball rolling page 2 9/19/2006 WE LOVE OUR STUFF!! We love hot cars . . . . . . and warm homes . . . and electric power page 3 And we think we love coal, oil, & gas 9/19/2006 And we’re supposed to abandon our cherished stuff? What a heartbreaking idea! No, we can still love our cars, our homes, our electricity We just need to: - power our cars - generate our electricity - warm our homes in winter - cool our homes in summer With technologies that aren’t toxic for our planet Feelings of regret are a possibility . . . page 4 9/19/2006 Okay, now that we’ve listened to our hearts . . . . . . let’s also tune in with our minds page 5 9/19/2006 The global warming scenario Certainties and estimates Greenhouse Gases Increase Earth Becomes Warmer Climate Triggers Are Pulled Damaging Results Follow • Certainties Greenhouse gas totals • Estimates: Risks can only be estimated Till they occur and are observed • Certainties: Irreversibility is a certainty Once CO2 is added to the atmosphere, it remains there for centuries page 6 9/19/2006 Global warming risks include . . . • Storms, floods, and heat waves • Melting glaciers and warming polar regions • Melting ice sheets, rising oceans, flooded coastal regions • Farmbelt-destroying drought • Habitat disappearance, species extinction page 7 9/19/2006 Source: An Inconvenient Truth, by Al Gore Global warming risks include . . . Al Gore’s film highlights the following: • Storms, floods, and heat waves – – – – Hurricanes more numerous, more damaging, more widespread All time US tornado record set in 2004 Major floods much more frequent Killer heat waves occurring • Melting glaciers and warming polar regions – – – – – – – – – – – – – Glaciers worldwide are disappearing Permafrost is thawing in Alaska, thaw will release methane, add to greenhouse gas levels Arctic Ocean ice cover shrinking rapidly, loss will accelerate polar warming Survival of polar bears threatened by loss of polar ice cap If global warming melts Greenland ice sheet, the world’s oceans will rise 20 feet or more If global warming melts West Antarctic ice sheet, oceans will rise another 20 feet Drought causing fertile areas to shrink, deserts to expand Ocean circulation system threatened Spring starting earlier, habitats affected everywhere Warmer winters provide opportunities to invasive species Vast Canadian forests being killed by Canadian pine beetle, winters not cold enough to kill it Coral reefs endangered Many biologists suspect mass extinctions occurring • Changing climate affecting crop lands and threatening ocean • Habitat is changing, species survival being threatened page 8 9/19/2006 Source: An Inconvenient Truth, by Al Gore When climate triggers are pulled . . . Greenhouse Gases Increase Earth Becomes Warmer Climate Triggers Are Pulled Warmer oceans Damaging Results Follow Storms more violent Warmer winters Warmer arctic Warmer summers Glaciers disappear Polar bear dying out Drought and heat page 9 9/19/2006 . . . risks become reality Rising CO2 is a risk-laden reality page 10 9/19/2006 PPM = Parts Per Million Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center Here’s the same trend in metric tons Atmospheric CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa 3,000 2,900 (converted from PPM into metric tons) Billions of Metric Tons 2,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 This presentation assumes 1 Part Per Million of CO2 = 7.77 billion metric tons 2,300 2,200 Norm prior to the Industrial Revolution – 2,175 Billion Metric Tons CO2 2,100 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 page 11 9/19/2006 2004 14 billion tons per year are now being added to the atmosphere Annual CO2 Additions to Atmosphere, 5 Yr Averages 16 Billions of Tons New CO2 Mauna Loa PPM measurements converted to metric tons (in billions) 13.2 14.7 14.2 12 10.3 8.8 7.9 5.5 11.7 9.2 8 4 0 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80 - 84 85 - 89 90 - 94 95 - 99 00 - 04 Time periods page 12 9/19/2006 1991 – 93: The Mt. Pinatubo effect Cumulative CO2 is up 780 billion tons Atmospheric CO2 3,200 2,800 Billions of Tons 2,400 2,000 1,600 1,200 800 400 0 1760 1761 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2,175 Billion Tons in 1760 2,955 Billion Tons in 2006 page 13 9/19/2006 And could be headed much higher Atmospheric CO2 5,000 4,500 In 2100: 4,770 Billion Tons Billions of Tons 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,955 Billion Tons in 2006 Forecast assumes 10 billion tons more CO2 each decade 2,500 2,000 1,500 1760 1761 - 1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2020 2021 - 2030 2031 - 2040 2041 - 2050 2051 - 2060 2061 - 2070 2071 - 2080 2081 - 2090 2091 - 2100 2,175 Billion Tons in 1760 page 14 9/19/2006 Topics • Reviewing the basics • Reframing the issue • How a nation mobilizes for energy conversion • Getting the ball rolling page 15 9/19/2006 We have three options . . . CO2 EFFECTS • Rapid growth 3 OPTIONS • Business as Usual: Ignore the risks • Emissions Reduction: Retain carbon energy, but scale it back • Continuing growth • Energy Conversion: Embrace a post-carbon energy future page 16 • Levels off, no further growth 9/19/2006 . . . and one hard question Think about total CO2 in the atmosphere • Is there a danger zone we should never reach? NO. Greenhouse gas is safe. No matter how much CO2 we create, there’s no cause for worry. YES. Once cumulative CO2 climbs into the danger zone, climate disaster is inevitable. So many climate triggers. They’ll all be pulled. page 17 9/19/2006 What’s YOUR answer? Is there a danger zone? NO. Greenhouse gas is safe. There is no danger zone. YES. Greenhouse gas is dangerous if there’s too much. page 18 9/19/2006 If you think there IS a danger zone . . . • Is Emissions Reduction the right option? page 19 9/19/2006 An Emissions Reduction scenario Atmospheric CO2 5,000 4,500 Billions of Tons 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1760 1761-1960 Forecast assumes 7 billion tons per decade of emission reductions 4,005 Billion Tons 2100 vs 2006: Added carbon dioxide equals 1050 billion tons 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2020 2021 - 2030 2031 - 2040 2041 - 2050 2051 - 2060 2061 - 2070 2071 - 2080 2081 - 2090 2091 - 2100 page 20 9/19/2006 Into the danger zone and beyond Emissions Reduction is the reform strategy of the moment Two bills have been introduced • Sponsored by Congressman Waxman (D-CA) and Senator Jeffords (I-VT) • They target business, not housing • Annual emissions in targeted categories are to be reduced, eventually, by 80% • A cap and trade carbon credit system is the primary tool for change • Full implementation by 2050 page 21 9/19/2006 But Emissions Reduction is like deficit reduction • Even if we “reduce deficits,” we’re still borrowing money • The National Debt total keeps on growing • Even if we “reduce emissions,” we’re still adding CO2 • And cumulative CO2 keeps on rising, headed into the danger zone page 22 9/19/2006 page 23 Billions of Tons 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 It’s time to flatten the curve 9/19/2006 1760 1761-1960 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2010 2011 - 2020 convert 2021 - 2030 2031 - 2040 2041 - 2050 2051 - 2060 2061 - 2070 2071 - 2080 2081 - 2090 Atmospheric CO2 level off   2091 - 2100 Flattening the curve is essential Two curves send CO2 into the danger zone. One curve protects the future. CO2 EFFECTS • Rapid growth 3 CURVES • Business as Usual: Ignore the risks • Emissions Reduction: Retain carbon energy • Continuing growth • Energy Conversion: Clean prosperity on a clean energy foundation page 24 • Levels off, no further growth 9/19/2006 Core logic recap Total CO2 has to level off • To stay out of the Danger Zone, we have to flatten the curve • To flatten the curve, we have to take emissions to zero • To take emissions to zero, Energy Conversion is essential • Emissions Reduction never gets emissions to zero Total CO2 keeps on rising • If emissions never go to zero, we never flatten the curve • If we don’t flatten the curve, we end up in the Danger Zone Emissions Reduction is a mistaken approach page 25 9/19/2006 Major reframing is called for Goal Level of response Whose problem Agenda Emissions Reduction Tactical Carbon traders and Kyoto diplomats Symbolic gestures and partial reforms Energy Conversion Strategic Everybody’s Serious actions with valuable benefits Credible Real solution Galvanizing page 26 No No. CO2 keeps on rising. No Yes Yes. Carbon energy goes away. Yes, if properly led 9/19/2006 Topics • Reviewing the basics • Reframing the issue • How a nation mobilizes for energy conversion • Getting the ball rolling page 27 9/19/2006 We’re at a moment of truth . . . We’re at a moment of truth, just as we were in WWII • Then, America’s factories were geared for civilian production. Now, all the world’s energy system is geared to consume carbon-based fuels. • Then, all America mobilized to convert its factories to wartime production. Now, all the world faces a similar mobilization challenge. Phase out carbon-based energy. Phase in renewable energy. • Then the challenge was one of mobilizing to win a war fought on two fronts. Now, the challenge is one of mobilizing globally to protect the global climate from overheating. page 28 9/19/2006 Carbon-based energy is pervasive Coal, oil, and natural gas provide energy for . . . Homes Businesses which leads to . . . Greenhouse Gases Increase Earth Becomes Warmer Climate Triggers Are Pulled Damaging Results Follow Factories Vehicles Power Plants page 29 9/19/2006 But sunshine is pervasive too Q. Is there enough? A. The solar energy that falls on 0.3% of the US is more than enough to power the entire country 0.3% = page 30 9/19/2006 Source of map: www.theodora.com The key is legislation . . . Capital: Retrofit the old, redesign the new • Housing • Commercial real estate • Factory power • Vehicles • Power plants page 31 9/19/2006 . . . and public involvement . . . • Energy conversion is a handy-man project • What pulls it forward is the fun of new technology – In every Home Depot, Lowe’s, Ace Hardware, Wal-mart, Costco, and Sears, imagine cool displays featuring the latest technologies • And financing incentives that make it easy page 32 9/19/2006 . . . on a responsible timetable • If we Americans design our capital budgets properly, we’re within three decades of a full solution • If we truly take the lead, we’ll have partners throughout the world page 33 9/19/2006 Good strategies  good results Good Strategies Capital Budget Laws New Technologies Homes Businesses Handyman Creativity Factories CO2 Levels Off Warming Slows Climate Stabilizes Further Damage Averted Vehicles Financial Incentives Power Plants Good Results no further CO2 page 34 9/19/2006 The energy conversion solution Good Strategies Capital Budget Laws New Technologies Good Results Homes Businesses Handyman Creativity Factories CO2 Levels Off Warming Slows Climate Stabilizes Further Damage Averted Vehicles Financial Incentives 9/19/2006 Power Plants page 35 Sidebar: What is Cap & Trade? • Carbon Cap: A carbon cap establishes an annual limit for a CO2 emitter – think DuPont, or some other larger corporation – The size of the annual cap ought to go down each year – in a very aggressive program, it eventually goes to zero – If DuPont emits less CO2 than its cap allows, it earns a “carbon credit” • Trade: It can sell that credit to a company that’s emitting more CO2 than its cap allows • Incentive: The faster a company reduces its emissions, the more it can earn selling credits page 36 9/19/2006 Sidebar: There’s a plus . . . • In a cap and trade system, the act of replanting a forest can earn a credit, since a forest pulls CO2 out of the air • A cap and trade system, then, creates incentives for Brazil to replant rain forest – Replanting earns carbon credits it can sell • (Brazil would also lose credits if it allows rain forest to be cut) page 37 9/19/2006 Sidebar: And 3 minuses . . . • Players – Cap and Trade isn’t the smartest way to enlist homeowners – too corporate, too indirect – It’s a game for rich country polluters, not poor country non-polluters • Purpose – Useful for whittling away old carbon-burning assets – Less suitable for mandating all new assets be CO2-free • Message – Cap and Trade implies that carbon fuels, though diminishing, will always be with us – “Always be with us” is a Game-the-System notion that hinders Energy Conversion, especially internationally page 38 9/19/2006 Topics • Reviewing the basics • Reframing the issue • How a nation mobilizes for energy conversion • Getting the ball rolling page 39 9/19/2006 How is this to be achieved? Good Strategies Capital Budget Laws Handyman Creativity From where we are now, how do we get to “Good Strategies”? page 40 Financial Incentives 9/19/2006 A likely path looks like this Moving away from the carbon era won’t be easy. Widespread cooperation is essential. Conversion Cost Analysis Clear Message Engaged Public Good Strategies - Capital budgets - Homeowners - Incentives Broad Coalition Good Legislative Proposals page 41 9/19/2006 Visualizing a full solution Clear Message Homes Conversion Cost Analysis Capital Budget Laws Business Engaged Public Handyman Creativity Factories CO2 Levels Off Warming Slows Climate Stabilizes Further Damage Averted Good Legislative Proposals Financial Incentives Vehicles Power Plants Broad Coalition Tactics & Strategies page 42 Technologies Environmental Results 9/19/2006 AFTER ENERGY CONVERSION . . . OUR STUFF IS STILL LOVABLE Our cars . . . . . . our warm homes OUR ENERGY SOURCE IS LOVABLE TOO . . . our electric power page 43 9/19/2006 What are you ready to do? Is it time . . . • To reframe global warming? Who would you . . . • Invite into the effort? page 44 9/19/2006