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					it for future development
    Gartner Group analysts predict will affect the future business of 10 forecast, which
covers technical, economic and social fields and interactions in the next 8 years,
continue to develop.
1. Broadband (arising from the calculation mode) will bring (than local prices) higher
With the rapid upgrade network capacity, connected to the network and storage
components of memory capacity, will cause the remote computing and local
computing the difference between the cost of enormous. Cheap and abundant
bandwidth catalytic centralized network services, grid computing models and thin
clients will become widespread.
Gartner Group, based on fiber-optic network will exceed the forecast of this
understanding of normal development. Fiber-optic network in the development
process to overcome the security, quality of service and grid computing brought about
by the economic model obstacles. is the few. Com recession, the few
in the growth of the ASP (application service provider) one. Gartner Group believes
that application service providers need to spend ten years to find a great storage
capacity fiber-optic network and its profound potential.
2. Most of the main application will be for inter-enterprise (interenterprise) business
Middleware revolution will bring more flexible and adaptable software architecture,
by paying a smaller workload for rapid reconfiguration. This is the ERP suite,
enterprise portals, enterprise CRM, supply chain software has once again brought the
concept of evolution, will have impact across all aspects of the economic and
ecological systems.
This is the promising future of Web services, in the thoroughly tempered, we will get
the application has never been configured plug and play capability. But we think in
the end a long period of observation and what applications can work together
seamlessly integrate components. XML and other Web services standards will be
fundamental in all of this, I think that the earlier forecast a bright future also needs
four to five years.
Gartner Group analyst Carl Claunch also pointed out that because business users need
more synergy between enterprises (cooperatively-interenterprise), future (based on
Web services) will show the development of application software circuitous advance.
Users will encounter some obstacles, such as how to judge and put a major upgrade,
how to resolve such conflicting priority. Claunch that in applications to explore the
future development of the process, users need to tools and technical support, business
process integration, but actually is the case is likely to be no interoperability toolkit,
even if there is also likely lack of the concept of B2B business.
3. Enterprises system will drive the development of macroeconomic
The second forecast to be in front of a reality, the entire socio-economic productivity
and efficiency in two aspects will be drastic upgrade, suggesting that companies will
be more closely inter-cooperation, or other value chain, the macro will economy
productivity growth, of course, occur in the second point prediction will be a huge
obstacle to the challenge, imagine if adopted by the Government and Tuiguang above
a certain business processes and technology architecture, the accumulation and
growth Duome powerful productivity. Gartnet Group predicted in a certain period of
time, the private economy, given the courage to try and explore new applications and
business models, will be rewarded.
4. In the prosperous economic environment, successful commercial company will
reduce the millions of jobs
Information technology advances to improve productivity, the ultimate result is that
economic prosperity and a healthy profit margin. Gartner Group predicted will appear
in some labor attrition (shrinking workforce). This situation is also found in
agriculture, due to the automation of IT systems fully effective, IT industry will
further reduce the labor required. Gartner's strategic planning assumption is
that business model in 2005 after the transformation to the Internet, about 70% of the
enterprises will be reduced by 10% of the workforce, by 2010 there will be 60% of
the company to reduce 30% of the workforce.
This forecast implies that many of the technical workers seeking jobs in other areas
will need. Last year occurred because of the recession IT industry, large-scale layoffs,
will rebound in the near future, and to promote market IT products and technical
expertise needs. These two forces in the next few years will conflict with each other.
Projections for the future, I doubt whether most of the companies in the next decade,
the helper handle conflict issues.
5. In some areas of manufacturers will continue to be acquired
Gartner Group predicts that by 2004 there will be a large acquisition and disappear
due manufacturer. This is not a dangerous prophecy. Majority. Com will ground
evaporation, 大鱼吃小鱼 repertoire never ended. Claunch that, IT industry will enter
a period of oversupply in the commercial arena only a few of the several large
companies are active, and the stage of innovation and growth going to come until
6. Moore's Law will continue to play a role
Moore's Law that computing power of processors to double every eighteen
months, while the Gartner Group believes that Moore's Law until 2001, 7
percent of likely continue to play a role. By 2008, desktop computers will be
configured from 4 to 8 processors, running at 40GHz frequencies, memory 4-12Gb,
1.5TB storage capacity and 100 Gb network card. By 2011, the processor's
clock will rise to 150GHz, the general desktop configuration 6TB of storage capacity.
Will also emerge a large number of new technologies such as nano-tube transistor
(nanotube transistors) and the rotating electronics (spintronics, Note 1), etc., in the
CMOS materials to run the limit, to the frequency of barriers across the processors.
7. To 2007, banks will be the main provider of personal services
Personal Services (Presence services) through a network storage and management of
customer's personal preferences, information, and resume. Gartner
switching to business model termed as "click the Internet"
(one-click Internet), to bring benefits to customers is the convenience and mobility
capabilities. Microsoft (Passport), free programs (Sun Company's proposed
service similar to Passport's authentication), AOL and Yahoo (and others)
are tearing the user market. But the Gartner Group, Claunch believes that the future
market will belong to independent companies and financial service providers such as
In the centuries, banks need to address security, privacy and trust related matters, and
this precious tradition to continue in the digital era shine. Gartner predicts by 2007,
banking institutions will have a 7 percent chance to succeed in the personal services
market. But Gartner also predicted the banking institutions will adopt a similar free
program or as a framework based on Microsoft's Passport, to achieve the
trust broker.
8. To 2007, will become a mainstream business activity monitoring
Business Activity Monitoring (BAM: business activity monitoring) is the popular
vocabulary. Imagine if the auto-detect and provide information and relevant content,
will contribute to real-time, effective decisions.
Claunch describes the new BAM will be the business decision-making tools:
"the past, when the relative complexity of business decisions, business 领
导人 do they prejudged on the decision, which is due to Ye Wu, and customer
relationships Bingweizhenshi You Xiaodi reflected. and future business decisions as
based on real-time data and business processes, making the content of its natural suit
the actual situation of enterprises. "
The forecast and the second perfect combination of forecasts - between enterprises
and industry value chain more closely connected. Without BAM, the business
enterprise will not be able to complete real-time processing, and this ability is not the
future existence of the business.
9. Non-IT industry will be purchasing a large number of commercial applications
Gartner Group believes that such businesses will purchase more commercial
applications (as opposed to IT business). By 2007, there will be 7 percent of the
possibility of purchasing 65% of large commercial software companies. The adverse
factors it is means more IT spending. Principles of financial and business IT spending
in this area to determine whether to provide a reasonable ROI (return on investment).
Applications will be divided into three categories: first, to maintain the basic tools of
business functions, application software, followed by the application software will be
enhanced to provide adequate ROI, the final frontier is the application software
(frontier applications), although it will bring more risk, but it can bring significant
competitive business advantage.
Claunch said the licensing business sector (empowering business units) is more
suitable for distributed management of the organization and delegation of authority
business. As the distributed management and have the best organization of businesses
to make rapid reaction against the market will therefore in an unstable market
environment to show their talents, as long as part of its business to Queshi progress
towards target market share, its complete business processes will operating in the best
10. Centralized management and distributed management of the swing between
In the ninth on a predictable basis, Gartner Group predicted that in the current period
of economic contraction, tends to focus on the management of IT industry in 2004
turned to tend to distributed management. When the business objectives of the lag
from the trip cost, the business sector decision-making will lead to more profitable
products, while economic growth period will be again.
Note 1: Rotary electronic (spintronics) technology uses electron spin, or is the
utilization of electronic spin and charge, the system can store a larger volume of
information, speed of processing complex information faster, is the design of
supercomputer design One conceptual basis