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A Big Picture Discussion of Global Warming

VIEWS: 22 PAGES: 6

									A Big Picture Discussion of Global Warming
Florentin Krause, PhD Director International Project for Sustainable Energy Paths

8/12/2008

Taking the Air out of Kyoto
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Chronic non-compliance by Annex I countries:
– Failure to stabilize emissions – Failure to achieve reductions

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Weakening of Annex I targets
– Flexibility mechanisms, Hot air, Sinks

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Reneging on promised aid for developing countries
– U.S. demands reductions by DCs

4

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U.S. rejects Kyoto targets

How Did We Get Here?
Official justifications:  “Too costly”  “Unfair to U.S.”  “Threats exaggerated”

5

The U.S. Campaign on Kyoto Costs
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Unprecedented in envir. policy 10-year drum beat since Bush I Phalanx of modelers producing same results Sponsored by business and government agencies alike Total campaign spending ca. $50 million “U.S. will lose several % of GDP” “U.S. will lose several million jobs”

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IPSEP Research
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> $1 million total budget Synthesis of technology and macroeconomic modeling Effective through meta-analysis and methodology critiques Arenas: US, EU, China, UN IPCC Culmination: only comprehensive assessment of U.S. mitigation costs
– Bi-partisan endorsements in U.S. House and Senate – McCain-Lieberman bill of 2003

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Findings from IPSEP Research
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Kyoto can be realized at a profit
– Models finding otherwise omit several benefits and productivity gains – Flaws and omissions in methodology are obvious – Correction leads to +1% in GDP

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Flexibility mechanisms slow rate of energy productivity gains Flex mex and hot air credits impede global reductions and hurt developing economies

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