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Investment Classics 55 (Part) &quot;Anti- traditional marketing&quot; Charlie Zhanrui Te is also a good person turn crises into opportunities. Turning to him, I think of something interesting. I have come back with a U.S. investment advisor, founder dinner, he was chatting about some ideas, I suddenly asked: &quot;You did not read Charles Zhan Ruite read&quot; anti-traditional marketing, &quot;?&quot; He said with a smile: &quot;I have worked his DLJ company.&quot; I suddenly realized, the returnees companies like arrangement in the corridor of some old stock and art collections, and DLJ environment within the same company. Chinese translation of the title, a subtitle attached &quot;master contrarian business secret&quot;, should be summarized Zhan Ruite business philosophy. Investment market for the first time that &quot;reverse thinking&quot; who is an American concept of Humphrey B · Bell, his &quot;thinking outside of the art&quot; by Hainan Publishing House, the central idea is: &quot;When everyone would like to have the same may everyone wrong. &quot; Bell, &quot;the opposite theory&quot; in the more accurate: &quot;It&#39;s just a way of thinking, we should not attach too much importance to it. In comparison, it is more important is a correct method is widely expected, but not a prediction system. In short, it is a thinking tool, not a crystal ball. It forces us to thoroughly consider the given question, as they say: If you do not bring the issue to think through things given a statement of your ideas. &quot; This means that, in the application of &quot;the opposite theory&quot;, we must note that the timing is difficult to grasp. &quot;Bull without saying that top&quot; and &quot;bear market bottom is not made&quot; and saying all the shows even if the stock price over-or underestimate the absolute, we can not easily transition to take place immediately. More often, we know that trend will change, but do not know when to turn. Zhan Ruite the &quot;contrarian&quot; investors, self-categorization is: &quot;and those who know how to seize the trend and lead the trend of the new peak of people on the contrary, I seem to always be in the worst time to reach their peak&quot; . In 1960, Zhan Ruite and later was the President of Bulten NYSE Nathan, etc. 2 Harvard Business School students, co- founder of DLJ Securities Corporation, the company&#39;s capital was 10 million, while Wall Street before their respective work for less than 3 years. The early 60s, retail accounted for 70% of NYSE volume, most securities companies will continue to focus on them, DLJ is that institutional investors will eventually prevail, so buck services for institutional investors, such as writing for small growth companies do in-depth research reports, won a lot of profit. 10 years later, DLJ became the first publicly listed in NYSE broker, Merrill Lynch, etc., followed, so DLJ spared even the entire securities industry in 1973 and 1974 the industry disaster. 1985, DLJ was sold to the benefit all life. In 1990, all profits life crisis, Zhan Ruite to reappear, so the company out of a common system for all policy holders, to listed companies, into the black. Publicly traded companies to obtain a large number of permanent capital are the big thing, but, Zhan Ruite also pointed out that a major disadvantage, is likely to expose the company&#39;s profitability, while confidentiality is often a source of profit the company to success. DLJ issued in 1970 listed the book for the first time revealed the high profitability of the company - sales, gross margin 50%, return on equity even higher. From that moment, there are dozens of securities firms compete with DLJ, institutional investors want to grab a slice of the services, which allow DLJ ended 10 years of success. &quot;Financial Psychology - to grasp the true meaning of market volatility&quot; &quot;Bubble secret - the basic principles of early financial frenzy&quot; &quot;Rabble&quot; U.S. &quot;Business Week&quot; selection of the 2004 10 Best Business Books, there are three books related to social psychology, and financial behavior. &quot;New Yorker&quot; magazine written by staff writers Surovic &quot;wisdom of the masses,&quot; even though that decision by a team, more often than not the smartest choice to make a better analysis of why the masses but will also be a wrong decision time, the best example is the speculative bubble. &quot;Or the city of origin&quot; is still described in the late 90&#39;s in the stock market frenzy is how to cause a huge bubble. The &quot;choice of contradictions&quot; that even before the consumer to choose the most careful consideration, finally may be the most scientific and the views of small effect, for example, follow the advice of friends. I&#39;m here to recommend a book written by Norwegian 拉 斯 特 维 德 &quot;Financial Psychology - to grasp the true meaning of market volatility,&quot; This is a textbook, written in fun and very systematic and comprehensive, is a rare financial psychology Introduction to science. In this book the last, Tweed admitted that it is difficult to find a &quot;become a millionaire through the stock,&quot; the recipe, but at least we have to determine what things we should not do, we can call it &quot; ruin &quot;, which is composed of the following 20 errors: 1) Select a number of professional small-scale market, which is always speculation; 2) will set up their own knowledge of the market based on the information Oden, Oden, including those rumors, rumors and acquaintances, or the recommendations of taxi drivers; 3) attaches great importance to their love to hear; 4) misinterpretation of information, to enable them to adapt to you by it; 5) When the neighbors and everyone seems to buy when you buy When the market has collapsed only when you sell; 6) Nobody likes to wait outside in the market, especially short. For this reason, most of the time in, you think that stock will rise; 7) Do you believe I received a lot of fragmented information, but never complete information; 8) According to the price of occasional changes (on the computer screen or the stock quotes on) to take action, rather than a comprehensive analysis of graphics; 9) never sure any form of risk strategy, not to seize the great opportunity; 10) in just one week out of all of the long-term investment, because profits have been ... ...; 11) ... ... If the loss of short-term investments on hold ... ...; 12) ... ... and is called &quot;long-term investment&quot;; 13) or when things got his wish, use the inverted pyramid trading method. At this point, when the trend down, you keep buying the stock to &quot;cost sharing&quot;; 14) whether the market is in a trend of cities and transaction- intensive area or turning city, they all use the same operating strategy; 15) when the market and you against time, constantly changing stop-loss value, because you always dream of doing the reverse; 16) more to listen to the views of others, rather than facts; 17) The use of market prices, rather than the fundamental value as your criterion; 18) the use of hedging to conceal losses, rather than ton output capacity; 19) for each investment in isolation; 20) have forgotten that the world&#39;s most difficult markets. There is a &quot;bubble of the secret - get up early the basic principles of financial mania,&quot; the booklet is very special, it is a history of three famous bubbles (Dutch tulip mania, the Mississippi bubble, and the South Sea Bubble) and generally view things right. American scholar Bidejiabo be based on market price data, that &quot;extraordinary public fanaticism and mass mania,&quot; said Mackey, author of unreliable, expensive and extremely rare bulb was the rapid decline in prices, reflects the tulip bulbs in the normal market price, and do not interpret it as this is evidence of market irrationality. In other words, expensive tulip only determined by its rarity, with such a large supply of bulbs, the price will naturally drop. Even contemporary new flower bulb varieties may still be priceless, but the developers will large-scale breeding of new varieties, market and lower prices will follow. If a small amount of the original 1987 price of one million guilders lily bulbs (based on consumer prices in 1999, equivalent to 693,000 U.S. dollars), which is equivalent to a fine house, a car, a suit, several tons of wheat , rye, butter, etc.. However, tissue growth as people use technology, these bulbs in 10 years has been able to breed, price &quot;crash&quot; will naturally enough. As for the &quot;Mississippi bubble is a large-scale manipulation of the activities of printing paper money and government debt by issuing shares to trading activities; the South Sea Bubble is an issue of shares to repay debt with the activities, although the reasons for not so well. These two cases are by senior government officials to initiate and assist in the spectacular scenes of the macro-economic conspiracy, Ta Men of the British and French support of all political institutions, &quot;that is, the two bubble Zhibu Guo is the failure of financial innovation and the two fiscal reforms, while be classified as crazy psychological campaign group. This as Russia&#39;s privatization campaign organized by the Chubais, we can say that it is a failure, but not a bubble. Garber reminds us, not the fundamentals of the history of these events, with the bubble theory to explain the course very easy, but because the bubble theory is a tautology, which can never be refuted, meaning is also insignificant. However, the mass psychology of the investment market must be one of the direction. As early as more than a century ago in 1895, Le Pen in France, wrote a book called &quot;rabble&quot;, the book is still a social psychology of one of the most influential works. Some of his argument also gives us a knowing smile today: &quot;The masses accumulate together and not only foolish the wisdom born. If &#39;the world&#39; refers to the group, did not look like it is often said, as Voltaire smarter than the whole world, down might say that V Fourtet smarter than the whole world. &quot; &quot;He may be an isolated educated individuals, but in groups, he has become a barbarian - that is, a behavior dominated by the instinct of animals.&quot; &quot;French Revolution, the National Association of the members, if separately, are open-minded citizens of modest behavior. But when they form a group, did not hesitate to take orders from the most barbaric proposal to send innocent people on the scaffold, and an anti- his own interests, to give up their inalienable rights, in their own innocent people also. &quot; &quot;Group will not make any advance planning. They can be the most contradictory situation has inspired state, but they are always subject to the current stimulus factors. They are like the storm rolled up the leaves, flying toward each direction, then Also dropped to the ground. &quot; &quot;Risk Rule&quot; &quot;With man&quot; &quot;Silver Age history&quot; Mainland few book behavioral finance to build the majority. I prefer two books, one is the &quot;risk rule&quot;, is a former Goldman Sachs risk expert Ron Burton wave and the &quot;Economist&quot; editor Andrew Freeman co-written. The reason I present behavioral finance among Linong Mainland dissatisfied with work, is because most of them written in dry and tasteless, totally uninteresting. In the investment or finance in school, there are what the study of behavioral finance is more interesting than what? Of course, the &quot;risk rule&quot; is written may not be very interesting, but it is rich and vibrant, but also practical. Leighton wave and Freeman in the book, using mainly Upside (possible to make money), Downside (lose money possible) and the core concepts of Regret, the simulated scenarios to measure the specific risk and, more importantly, the algorithms and ideas are quite of simple and routine. Regret is a well known as the psychological sense, it reflects in the event of bad things arising from frustration or despair, for example, you used to walk on the path to go home every day, one day, you whim, choose another path along the home, the result had an accident, then you will definitely regret not cope. But if you go in before the road every day of the accident out of it? In comparison, because the change in the habits that produced some of the additional frustration is Regret. Difficult to know, line is more difficult. &quot;Risk rule&quot; of the postscript one of the authors cited the end of 1994 made a very wrong decision- making, brought him great Regret. His opposition of his family, sold the UK&#39;s house because he lived in New York, houses for rent money, not enough to make up for installments to be paid, and the slow growth of the British economy, the late &#39;80s real estate bubble has burst, and so on. The decision- making in the first half of 1996 are right, but then the price suddenly shot up the place, the end of 1997, an original value of 10 million homes have risen to 170 thousand U.S. dollars. If he sold it before then, earnings will be 4 times the original. So he self- examination that he had never considered the potential Upside (income), is calculated Upside (loss), and the result is the potential loss of revenue is 7 times. The problem is, this was written in the year 2000, if prices in the UK shot up by one after another, the writer feel? Why did he not chase it the end of 1997? In other words, he should not be overly concerned about selling the wrong room, but go buy a house. Alas, it is a huge Regret. Than the &quot;risk rule&quot; even more interesting is that &quot;man proposes,&quot; I have in the &quot;cattle of Revelation&quot; (January 2005 &quot;Value& ;quot; cover story) were highlighted in it. This book is really very, very fun, the author has completely Tale Bo wording of the novel, especially the postscript written reminiscent of Milan Kundera. Maybe, &quot;man proposes,&quot; almost all points of view are on my appetite, so it was like I mile. Some readers may not like the Tale Bo, slightly cynical tone and wording, but the book reveals behavioral finance such research is a major investment in the future market directions. Originally, I would like to recommend Peter Drucker&#39;s &quot;bystander&quot; (Hainan Publishing House), &quot;Mingciboge of Management&quot; (China Labor and Social Security Publishing House) and Michael Porter&#39;s &quot;competitive advantage&quot; (Chinese Publishing Society), which belong to management classics, of course, go a long way to invest. With those who started out by marketing Peter Thomas (&quot;the pursuit of excellence&quot;), Jim Collins (&quot;Everlasting&quot;), Michael Hammer (&quot;Reengineering the Corporation&quot;) and other management theorists than the three in particular Germany Luke and Mingciboge is thought intelligent people, they will not become obsolete because of changes in trend. But I think to go, or to include them in the bibliography go, after all, they are classic and the scope of investment and financial management a bit substandard. Readers may have noticed, until now the recommended books, in addition to Shizhen Bang compiled the &quot;International Investment Fund Manager Interview with nine&quot; no one is a Chinese original, which makes me faint Buan. Finally (and indeed in the final), I will Chen Tsun-jen of the &quot;silver era of history&quot; to include 55 books, this book and its author may be heard most people knew nothing of. Book published in 2000, I viewed something that is written anecdotes and old Shanghai, and strange questions, not buy. A few years later, see Cheng was quoted author&#39;s evaluation of this book - &quot;Old Shanghai book, this the best&quot;, quite curious, and quickly bought from the bookstores, a closer look, Sure. Then bought a sequel, &quot;War era history&quot;, slightly less than the previous books.
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