Wind Briefing New Mexico Renewable Energy Transmission Authority

Wind Briefing New Mexico Renewable Energy Transmission Authority Ron Lehr Western Representative American Wind Energy Association October 10, 2007 Wind Energy Today • • • • • • • • • 60 GW worldwide 12 GW U.S., enough to serve 2.5 million households Utility scale, mainstream part of portfolio Reducing U.S. gas demand 5% Requires no storage Natural gas system = storage Supports grid reliability Promotes rural economic development Uses no water U.S. Wind Industry Status • 2005 & 2006 - U.S. largest market for new wind turbines in the world • 11,603 MW installed capacity at end of 2006 – $18 billion total invested • Three record years of growth 2005-07 – 2006 - 27% growth or 2,454 MW – 2006 additional $3.7 billion invested – 2007 additional $6 billion investment expected • Wind - second leading source of new generation Four Trends in the Market • Market Scaling Up – Sustained Growth • Strong Investment, Larger Players • Global Market/Supply Chain Growth – Less Eurocentric • More Robust Long-term Vision A Few Bumps in the Road . . . • Global Turbine Shortage • Cost Increases – Turbines and components – Construction, transportation • Compensating Reality: all energy is more expensive today Policy Matters! • Inconsistent federal policy has been the single biggest constraint on growth of the U.S. wind industry – Most manufacturers European and beneficiaries of more stable policy U.S. Annual Wind Energy Capacity Additions 3000 2500 2000 Continuity in the federal tax credit thanks to a timely extension ensures steady growth. MW 1500 1000 500 0 Expirations of the federal tax credit wreak havoc on industry planning and cause drops in installations. 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 What is the Wind Agenda? • Federal Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) – Bingaman calling for 15% by 2020 – RPS: one relatively simple and quick response to climate concerns • State RPS in 25 states a big driver Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards WA: 15% by 2020 MT: 15% by 2015 MN: 25% by 2025 WI: 10% by 2015 ME: 30% by 2000 RI: 16% by 2019 MA: 4% by 2009 NY: 25% by 2013 NV: 20% by 2015 CA: 20% by 2010 CO: 10% by 2015 IA: 2% by 1999 CT: 10% by 2010 PA: 18% by 2020 DE: 10% by 2019 NJ: 22.5% by 2021 DC: 11% by 2022 MD: 7.5% by 2019 HI: 20% by 2020 AZ: 15% by 2025 NM: 20% by 2020 TX: 5,880MW (about 5%) by 2015 • 25 state standards • Technology, vintage, credit trading, sunset, location eligibility requirements differ What is the Federal Wind Agenda? • Tax Issues – – long-term PTC extension • H.R. 197 (Pomeroy 5 year) – small turbine ITC Wind energy potential “Areas with good wind resources have the potential to supply up to 20 percent of the electricity consumption of the United States.” –President Bush, Advanced Energy Initiative tour, 2006 Estimated wind capacity by state, Scenario of wind supplying 20% of U.S. electricity Reliable • Utility scale, mainstream part of portfolio • Requires no storage • Supports grid reliability hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh Western Governor’s Association CDEAC Findings • Governor’s goals attainable • Transmission needed • Abundant clean resource base in WGA region: – Energy efficiency 48,000 MW – Advanced coal 5,000 MW – Biomass 10,000 MW – Geothermal 5,600 – 13,000 MW – Solar 8,000 MW – Wind 9,175-54,000 MW See: www.westgov.org (“CDEi”) 100 90 Levelized Cost of Energy, $/MWh Class 6 Class 5 Class 4 Class 3 Wind Availability (Includes transmission cost, Wind Availability Without tax credits) With 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 - 100 200 300 400 500 Quantity Available, GW 600 700 800 Wind Power References Economics: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/re-pubs.html www.westernresourceadvocates.org “Balanced Energy Plan”, Appendix A www.awea.org/pubs/factsheets/Cost2001.PDF Resource: www.energyatlas.org Renewable Energy Atlas of the West www.windpoweringamerica.gov State wind power maps Transmission: Primer: http://www.ncouncil.org/primer.pdf Wind issues: www.nationalwind.org transmission case studies issue briefs wind transmission workshops RTO reports Integration costs, capacity value: www.uwig.org Transmission Planning MISO: http://windonthewires.com/presentation.cfm Transmission Planning Update Midwest Wind Power Development Net Environmental Impact of Transmission Buffalo Ridge Transmission Case Conditions Wind Hydro Integration in the Missouri Basin RMATS www.westgov.org WGA transmission report www.ssg-wi.org SSG-WI report http://psc.state.wy.us/htdocs/subregional/home.htm charter, participants, working groups, steering committee meetings, stakeholder meetings, Phase I report Wind Transmission Issues Timing mismatch: Wind 12-18 months, Transmission 5-10 years Short term: Network service Dynamic scheduling Virtual wheeling, interchanges OATT Tariff issues: Imbalance Penalties, Scheduling and forecasting, Firm and non firm service, rate pancaking Physical congestion data: www.ssg-wi under “workgroups” and “reports” “Western Inteconnection Path Flow Study” Feb 2003. Long term: Wind development plan Wind resource development locations Wind markets: local, export Transmission study model, data, participants, process Reliability + economics + diversity policies Existing transmission and upgrades New transmission investments and cost recovery Business case, risk reduction Public policy case, generation diversity NIMBY lawyer test AWEA Proposal for National Interest Transmission Corridors New transmission lines could bring over 15,000 MW of new wind online West Wind Wires MISO Wind on the Wires Wind on the Wires Wind Power NY Renewable NW Project Renewable NW Project Interwest Energy Alliance CEERT CEERT MISO Western Resource Advocates The Wind Coalition Contact AWEA www.AWEA.org Ron Lehr rllehr@msn.com 303 504 0940 Or write to: Randy Swisher American Wind Energy Association 1101 14th Street NW, 12th Floor Washington, DC 20005