Decline of the West

							Decline of the West
Do not underestimate the Wall Street financial crisis and the European sovereign debt
crisis, which is not a simple process of economic cyclical fluctuations in the financial
crisis, but rather a sign of the decline of the Western world. Note, I said sign, and did
not start the decline of the western world in fact already started. The Western world
become more prosperous in the process of its already planted the seeds of decline.
I start it from there? From the Wall Street financial crises Let's talk about it.
We can say that because of the lack of financial supervision, financial system a
problem. But that is just standard, not this. Analysis of economic problems, we see the
limitations of big changes. Over the past two decades, two things can not be
overlooked: First, the supply-side IT revolution has made more efficient; Second, the
Berlin Wall fell, the world's nearly 1 billion of cheap labor into the world
market. This makes the two major Western countries can send money without
inflation. And because of the former planned economy countries, the international
standard currency for the dollar as the huge stock of demand, the United States was
more massive and more lasting currency issued no inflation. , Will bring short-term
economic prosperity. However, when the IT revolution to play a depleted supply of
effects, including the former planned economies of developing countries, including
labor costs began to rise, then inflation will inevitably send money. Monetary
tightening, followed by economic downturn also inevitable. That the financial crisis
was by no means no, but the financial crisis must be in the context of the economic
cycle occurred. This is definitely wrong.
Wall Street financial crisis should be put against the background of this understanding.
On this background, we know that the world economic growth over the past two years
is a very high state of high growth; on this background, we know the future of the
world economy for a long period of time is can not restore the high growth over the
past two decades, and we therefore know that the world large-scale rescue measures is
too far in; on this background, we also know that the financial crisis we are exposed
will continue to suffer pain and suffering is our currency during the past and present
show that as much junk.
This view, although limited grasp of the big changes, but no source of money to dig
out spam. Rooted in the basic political system of today's world. Think
about it, only do so eight years of President, why should consider the long run? Then
think about it, since the majority of voters decided to elect politicians who can not,
why not please the voters? Indeed the world, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and
Deng Xiaoping, but they are few. That they also need specific times to success.
On social welfare, human overstating wages was inevitable to happen. But there is no
free lunch, the money come from? Can only be a liability, by paying the money the
old new accounts; can only be junk currency. This is what happened today, the
European system of sovereign debt crisis causes, which is awash with liquidity in
today's world, virtual economic deprivation and the serious harm the real
economy system root.
Do not misunderstand, I can not deny democracy. But better support people do not
know what democracy is democracy, that democracy is voting. Not like that. Life,
will need some basic principles are adhered to, without any bargaining. Management
of a country, some of the basic principles and essential need to adhere to, and also
does not allow bargaining. These basic principles include: the protection of property
rights, the protection of individual rights; constraints currency, a balanced budget; the
rule of law, bind the Government to avoid the free lunch. Democracy a prerequisite
for voting down in this practice, rather than turn a democratic vote to decide these
fundamental principles.
Today, the whole world is talking about structural imbalances in the world economy.
You know, the root causes of imbalances in the Western world are vigorously free
lunches, undermine the basic principles of management of the national economy.
However, the easy change. France to balance the budget, lower wages, immediately
attracted the strike. Do not change, how do? Where billions of competition with cheap
labor. Big trouble in Europe, the United States is better, by no means demand
management, can they save the. This choice is not all bad. China has been sleeping for
centuries, and now the opportunity fingertips. But the opportunity does not mean that
we can seize opportunities. China's economic policy can not go wrong. Our
large population, per capita resource-poor, even if committed by an error much
smaller than the Western world, we also can not afford.
Somehow, I thought the article at the end of Cairns, inevitably pessimistic. Do not like
Keynes's theory, but I love this quote: "the long run we are all
dead." Throughout the history of ancient civilizations, only the Chinese
people through brilliant, but the decline of energy recovery. Keynes would really hope
is not true for the Chinese people, Chinese people would like to live forever!