VIEWS: 11 PAGES: 2 POSTED ON: 8/31/2010
Decline of the West Do not underestimate the Wall Street financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, which is not a simple process of economic cyclical fluctuations in the financial crisis, but rather a sign of the decline of the Western world. Note, I said sign, and did not start the decline of the western world in fact already started. The Western world become more prosperous in the process of its already planted the seeds of decline. I start it from there? From the Wall Street financial crises Let&#39;s talk about it. We can say that because of the lack of financial supervision, financial system a problem. But that is just standard, not this. Analysis of economic problems, we see the limitations of big changes. Over the past two decades, two things can not be overlooked: First, the supply-side IT revolution has made more efficient; Second, the Berlin Wall fell, the world&#39;s nearly 1 billion of cheap labor into the world market. This makes the two major Western countries can send money without inflation. And because of the former planned economy countries, the international standard currency for the dollar as the huge stock of demand, the United States was more massive and more lasting currency issued no inflation. , Will bring short-term economic prosperity. However, when the IT revolution to play a depleted supply of effects, including the former planned economies of developing countries, including labor costs began to rise, then inflation will inevitably send money. Monetary tightening, followed by economic downturn also inevitable. That the financial crisis was by no means no, but the financial crisis must be in the context of the economic cycle occurred. This is definitely wrong. Wall Street financial crisis should be put against the background of this understanding. On this background, we know that the world economic growth over the past two years is a very high state of high growth; on this background, we know the future of the world economy for a long period of time is can not restore the high growth over the past two decades, and we therefore know that the world large-scale rescue measures is too far in; on this background, we also know that the financial crisis we are exposed will continue to suffer pain and suffering is our currency during the past and present show that as much junk. This view, although limited grasp of the big changes, but no source of money to dig out spam. Rooted in the basic political system of today&#39;s world. Think about it, only do so eight years of President, why should consider the long run? Then think about it, since the majority of voters decided to elect politicians who can not, why not please the voters? Indeed the world, Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher and Deng Xiaoping, but they are few. That they also need specific times to success. On social welfare, human overstating wages was inevitable to happen. But there is no free lunch, the money come from? Can only be a liability, by paying the money the old new accounts; can only be junk currency. This is what happened today, the European system of sovereign debt crisis causes, which is awash with liquidity in today&#39;s world, virtual economic deprivation and the serious harm the real economy system root. Do not misunderstand, I can not deny democracy. But better support people do not know what democracy is democracy, that democracy is voting. Not like that. Life, will need some basic principles are adhered to, without any bargaining. Management of a country, some of the basic principles and essential need to adhere to, and also does not allow bargaining. These basic principles include: the protection of property rights, the protection of individual rights; constraints currency, a balanced budget; the rule of law, bind the Government to avoid the free lunch. Democracy a prerequisite for voting down in this practice, rather than turn a democratic vote to decide these fundamental principles. Today, the whole world is talking about structural imbalances in the world economy. You know, the root causes of imbalances in the Western world are vigorously free lunches, undermine the basic principles of management of the national economy. However, the easy change. France to balance the budget, lower wages, immediately attracted the strike. Do not change, how do? Where billions of competition with cheap labor. Big trouble in Europe, the United States is better, by no means demand management, can they save the. This choice is not all bad. China has been sleeping for centuries, and now the opportunity fingertips. But the opportunity does not mean that we can seize opportunities. China&#39;s economic policy can not go wrong. Our large population, per capita resource-poor, even if committed by an error much smaller than the Western world, we also can not afford. Somehow, I thought the article at the end of Cairns, inevitably pessimistic. Do not like Keynes&#39;s theory, but I love this quote: &quot;the long run we are all dead.&quot; Throughout the history of ancient civilizations, only the Chinese people through brilliant, but the decline of energy recovery. Keynes would really hope is not true for the Chinese people, Chinese people would like to live forever!
"Decline of the West"