Concealed the shocking truth_ Real estate crash not joke

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					Concealed the shocking truth! Real estate crash not joke
Recently, an article on the real estate crash timetable popular network is the collapse
or the collapse of the two views will not be a fierce battle. But all views are ignorant
premise: policy how to adjust? Policy background to discuss whether to leave the
crash meaningless. Therefore, whether or not the collapse of the collapse of those who
must first answer the question: the current speculative buyers tolerance policy should
continue? If there was a fundamental policy adjustments, real estate in the momentary
pain can pull through after the contrary, the current policy continues, the real estate
crash is inevitable! That the real estate and kidnapping with the national economy,
claiming that "suppressing the real estate is to suppress the national
economy," the intimidation is simply right and wrong, shifting blame onto!
Real estate can save only the regulation of real estate, real estate survivor policy
adjustment is the only way, condone speculative real estate policy changes, is the
property of the end for the national economy of the trap! This conclusion has been
irrefutable, because the truth was covered up for years will soon emerge, the data is
hidden shocking!
On the real estate bubble, from the State Council ministries and commissions,
governmental research institute affiliated to the semi-official Association of Realtors,
believes that all word of a speech: China's real estate bubble is not much,
in the context of urbanization, It is that some bubbles will be absorbed by potential
demand, which is completely controllable, as long as the policy of the fine-tuning,
stabilize housing prices soaring, it is OK. This is a huge, extremely dangerous mistake!
Such courage and blind optimism, so that low-cost China missed a golden opportunity
to purge the order of real estate, real estate economy has been ill with the exception as
dangerous! Because:
⑴ has formed the national economy for over-reliance on real estate in 2009, started
commercial housing area of more than 1.154 billion square meters, with building and
Peasants in the Village since the construction of various types of
government-sponsored protection of rooms, and other statistics are not into the
commercial housing building, domestic building started a total area of more than 1.8
billion square meters, on the needs of more than 100 million tons of steel. Accounting
for 20% of steel production, in addition, decoration industry, appliance industry,
advertising industry, logistics and real estate industries are related with the heating
and prosperous. But this is definitely not a good day long, all cities the size of the
stock of domestic building has reached 15 billion square meters, in this case, an
annual increase of 1.8 billion square meters, which only takes a few years, residential
class building community ownership to more than 25 billion square meters, which far
exceeds the actual needs of the urban population. Can be concluded that an
oversupply of real estate not far! Not, as people perceived the government's
real estate still strong 20 years on, but the day to slow down in sight! From at least
three years, as many as five years, commercial houses will be serious oversupply of
real estate as an important engine for the national economy about to fire, an already
fragile economy will have been hit!
⑵ 2009 National sales of commercial area is 937 million square meters, including
commercial residential sales area of approximately 660 million square meters, with
government investment in the construction of low-rent housing in shantytowns, part
of Housing and deducted from the sales area to move back to room, put Use the new
residential area of more than 8 million square meters. The Urban Village residents
from the housing is difficult to calculate how many on the. To be sure,
China's annual increase of urban population of about 1,300 people, from
rural to urban population of at least 60% or more, the majority of whom did not
become the recipient of commercial houses, but live in the villages in the city. This
means additional people in the city, only 600 people moved into the commercial
housing or housing provided by the Government to protect them, at least 100 million
are low-rent housing, security room winner. The remaining 500 million of commercial
housing is owner-occupied buyers. In accordance with the calculation of floor area of
30 square meters per person, they bought 1.5 million square meters of commercial
housing, plus about 300 million purchase in order to improve living conditions in their
own homes for the purpose of the second set of commercial housing, the demand
from the housing of about 800 million people, and they will not buy commercial
housing of more than 320 million square meters, with a total of 660 million square
meters of commercial housing sales area compared to only less than 50%! The other
half of 340 million square meters of commercial housing investment, and basically
fell into the hands of speculators! In 2010, after, as prices continue to rise, further
squeezing buyers of space from the living, the proportion of investment and
speculative purchases of real estate has increased to 60% or more, if prices continue
to rise, this proportion will increase.
This trend will lead to what consequences? Each year will add 3-4 million square
meters of vacant commercial housing sold up to 2011, the vacancy will be more than
1.3 billion square meters! Reached in 2009 the total area of commercial housing sold
almost twice as investors rushed once shipping market In the short to medium term
could not digest, that is, 50% price reduction also need to be 3.3 trillion yuan buying
absorption, while living in the Villages in the low-income persons can not be used by
potential access site! No matter how much prices fall, 70% of people only watch! The
buyers will be able to Buying their money, and frequently hand several suites of real
estate speculators are only a drop in the bucket compared to the funds!
China's urbanization process on the potential demand for owner-occupied
commercial houses were seriously over-estimated! Serious asymmetry rental ratio, so
that real estate speculators can not use the rental income to cover interest on the loan,
buy low sell high is the only way to seek profits, revealed that China's real
estate has become the world's largest casino, the first-tier cities The gamble
has entered the frenzied state, the tables began to spread to the second and third tier
cities and even county towns, spread, and real estate (including second-hand housing)
and the number will exceed GDP which attract 50%! The investment and speculators
can not always just to meet the growth in book value of assets is not mentioned, and
mentioned the number is greater than the buying volume that day will not be too far
away, once most of the gamblers of patience to the limit, or by international relations
impacts on large market has changed, they will focus on shipping, and most families
are simply no room for spectators who can not afford housing, the community is
simply not enough purchasing power of money to end up! The result of this terrible so
far not thought of all! Chinese real estate will be an unprecedented collapse, that
China will not be the case in Japan as the real estate crash is disastrous serious
⑶ The horrible thing is that government policy-making departments on the property
without knowledge of the vicious trend, the real estate bubble since 2004 has been
fermented by 6 years, while living building department officials still insist there is no
real estate bubble. More astonishing is this: the most important early-warning data on
real estate has never been announced! It includes: the National City area of domestic
building stock (including the Villages), the national annual increase of domestic
building urban area (including villages in the city and the commercial housing outside
the home), the national occupancy rate of commercial housing sold and the total
vacancy rates, increase the country's first suite of non-commercial housing
in the proportion of rental rates, vacancy rates ┄ ┄ These are the core of the policy
development of real estate data and scientific evidence. Especially in the area of
commercial housing were sold the first suite Africa the proportion of such an
important long-term data is real estate management cover, never released, obviously
not do not know, but these departments, because of vested interests, the central
government's intention to fool! Since the introduction of real estate over
the years led to the policy thunder, little rain, seems to stir, in fact, is nowhere near
enough, poles apart! This is more the whole real estate mess, further and further away
the root cause! When government departments have the courage to departmental
interests and cover up the truth, and policy development to make up some innocuous
deceptive prescription, then the real estate disaster is inevitable, because the central
warning of this should be is "all normal" report cheated!
National economy is being concealed by the truth toward the abyss!

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