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					                                                                03/08/2010




Transfer of technology for the development of complementary
     energy sources in Latin America and the Caribbean




           Haroldo Machado Filho, Ph.D.
           Paramaribo – 22th July, 2010




           TT and Complementary Energy
                     Sources
      - Both energy requirements and the combat against
        climate change demand development of other types
        of energy that will progressively be called on to
        reinforce world supplies.
      - Development of complementary energy sources is
        fundamental. Most of them will only contribute
        significantly to the energy mix in the long term.
      -    Countries must explore possibilities for achieving
          greater energy efficiency and for controlling GHG
          emissions in general, including through the
          application of new technologies on terms which
          make such an application economically and socially
          beneficial.




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                                                 Definitions
                 • IPCC (2000) defines as “technology
                   transfer” as a broad set of processes
                   covering the flows of know-how,
                   experience and equipment for mitigating
                   and adapting to climate amongst different
                   stakeholders (...). It comprises the process
                   of learning to understand, utilize and
                   replicate technology, including capacity to
                   choose and adapt to local conditions to
                   integrate it with indigenous technologies.”




                                                 Transfer of Technology from   Transfer of Technology to
                                                            Brazil                      Brazil
                                                                   North-                      North-
                                                 South-South       South       South-South     South

Electricity Generation Technologies

               Natural gas

                              Large turbines          No             No            No            Yes

                               Microturbines          No             No            No            Yes

                   Coal

     Powdered (critical, super critical, ultra
                              super critical)         No             No            Yes           Yes

                        Gasification (IGCC)           No             No            No            Yes

      Circulating atmospheric fluidized-bed           No             No            Yes           Yes

   Nuclear Fission (generation III e IV)

                             Fuel production          Yes           Sim            No            Yes

                                    Reactors          No             No            No            Yes




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                                                Transfer of Technology from   Transfer of Technology to
                                                           Brazil                      Brazil
                                                                  North-                      North-
                                                South-South       South       South-South     South

                Solar energy

                           Photovoltaics (Si)        No             No            No            Yes

     High temperature thermal solar energy           No             No            No            Yes

                Wind power                           Yes            No            No            Yes

          Biomass gasification                       Yes            No            No            Yes

            Hydroelectricity

                   Small Hydropower Plants           Yes            No            No            Yes

                           Medium and large          Yes            No            No            Yes

                 Hydrogen

                                   Fuel cells        Yes           Yes            Yes           Yes

                     Production and storage          Yes           Yes            Yes           Yes




                                                Transfer of Technology from   Transfer of Technology to
                                                           Brazil                      Brazil
                                                                  North-                      North-
                                                South-South       South       South-South     South

Fuel and Heat

                Natural Gas

      LNG (liquefaction and regasification)          No             No            No            Yes

                          GTL (Gas to liquid)        No             No            Yes           Yes

                   Coal

                       CTL (Coal to liquid)          No             No            Yes           Yes

                  Etanol

                             First generation        Yes           Yes            No            No

                           Second genetation         Yes           Yes            No            Yes

                Solar energy                         Yes            No            Yes           Yes

                 Charcoal                            Yes            No            No            Yes

                 Biodiesel                           Yes           Yes            Yes           Yes




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                                            Transfer of Technology from   Transfer of Technology to
                                                       Brazil                      Brazil
                                                              North-                      North-
                                            South-South       South       South-South     South


Interface Technologies


                  CCS                            No             No            No            Yes


               Smart Grid                        No             No            No            Yes


           Storage (batteries)                   No             No            No            Yes


Social Technologies


 Stoves, clean fuels - LPG/etanol cooking        Yes            No            Yes           Yes
    Energy efficiency for low-income
               consumers                         Yes            No            Yes           Yes
  Thermal solar energy for low-income
              consumers                          Yes            No            Yes           Yes




                                             UNFCCC
                • Article 4.1 (c)- Promotion and cooperation in the
                  development, application and diffusion, including
                  transfer, of technologies, practices and processes related
                  to mitigation.
                • Article 4.1(h) - Promotion and cooperation in the full,
                  open and prompt exchange of relevant scientific,
                  technological, technical, socio-economic and legal
                  information.
                • Article 4.3 – Requires developed countries to provide
                  the financial resources needed by developing country
                  Parties to provide the full incremental costs of
                  implementing necessary measures of UNFCCC,
                  including for the related transfer of technology.




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                  UNFCCC
Article 4.5: “The developed country Parties and
other developed Parties included in Annex II shall
take all practicable steps to promote, facilitate and
finance, as appropriate, the transfer of, or access to,
environmentally sound technologies and knowhow
to other Parties, particularly developing country
Parties, to enable them to implement the provisions
of the Convention. In this process, the developed
country Parties shall support the development and
enhancement of endogenous capacities and
technologies of developing country Parties. Other
Parties and organizations in a position to do so may
also assist in facilitating the transfer of such
technologies.”




            Bali Plan of Action

At CoP 13 (Bali, Dec. 2007) a
comprehensive process was launched to
enable the full, effective and sustained
implementation of the Convention
through long-term cooperative action,
now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to
reach an agreed outcome and adopt a
decision at its 15th session (Copenhagen,
Dec. 2009).




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 Five pillars of the Bali Plan of Action
• The full implementation of the commitments in
  the Convention is being discussed under five
  issues (pillars):
   – A shared vision for long-term cooperative action
   – Enhanced national/international action on mitigation
     of climate change.
   – Enhanced action on adaptation.
   – Enhanced action on technology development and
     transfer to support action on mitigation and
     adaptation.
   – Enhanced action on the provision of financial
     resources and investment to support action on
     mitigation and adaptation and technology
     cooperation.




Enhanced action on technology development
              and transfer
• to support action on mitigation and adaptation,
  including, inter alia, consideration of:

   – (i) Effective mechanisms and enhanced means for the removal
     of obstacles to, and provision of financial and other incentives
     for, scaling up of the development and transfer of technology to
     developing country Parties in order to promote access to
     affordable environmentally sound technologies;
   – (ii) Ways to accelerate deployment, diffusion and transfer of
     affordable environmentally sound technologies;
   – (iii) Cooperation on research and development of current, new
     and innovative technology, including win-win solutions;
   – (iv) The effectiveness of mechanisms and tools for technology
     cooperation in specific sectors;




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       Article 4.7 of the UNFCCC
  “The extent to which developing country Parties
  will effectively implement their commitments
  under the Convention will depend on the
  effective implementation by developed country
  Parties of their commitments under the
  Convention related to financial resources and
  transfer of technology and will take fully into
  account that economic and social development
  and poverty eradication are the first and
  overriding priorities of the developing country
  Parties.”




        Scope of the discussion
- “Enhanced action on technology development and transfer
to support action on mitigation and adaptation” is needed to
“enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of
the Convention”.

- Capacity building and technology transfer tools are vital to
support developing country actions on mitigation and
adaptation.

- Beyond “business as usual” to enable action and address
urgent challenges

- Building autonomy




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        Existing Technologies
- Identification and assessment of existing technologies to
support action on both mitigation and adaptation;

- Multilateral funding to disseminate existing technologies
(including patent expired);

- Promote capacity building and disseminate know how
(adapt, use and develop technologies), experience and
equipments for mitigating and adapting to climate change;




       Patented Technologies

 - Publicmultilateral fund for purchasing licenses with a
 view to facilitate transfer;

 - Consider criteria for compulsory licensing based on
 situations of national emergencies or urgency considering
 climate change;

 - Consider incentives to stimulate technology transfer
 within companies, with a view to strengthening capacity
 in subsidiary companies located in developing countries;




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          New Technologies

- Foster the establishment of national/regional technology
excellence centers to promote technology development,
deployment and transfer, stimulate capacity building,
improve access to information and establish an
appropriate international cooperation environment;

- Venture capital fund based on a public/private
partnership for development of breakthrough
technologies in developing countries;

- Reinforce north-south, south-south and triangular
cooperation, including joint R&D.




          Expected Results
- Coherent and comprehensive instrument for technology
development and transfer.

- Enhanced institutional support under the UNFCCC for
the identification of country/regional technology needs.

- Mechanisms, including performance indicators, to
measure, report and verify the effectiveness of
technology transfer to developing countries.

- Funding mechanism under the UNFCCC, to be
managed and operated by the COP.




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                                                            03/08/2010




     Status of the Negotiation
- Failure at CoP 15, in Copenhagen.

- In spite of the progress made in the text, negotiations
under the AWG-LCA have not been finalised.

- Copenhagen Accord on TT is vague.
- No legal status of the Copenhagen Accord. The CoP
only “took note” of it.

-Negotiation under the AWG-LCA continues, but there is
still no basis for negotiation.

- Perspective for the next CoP, in Cancun, are not
optimistic.




CoP text X Copenhagen Accord
    Source: “The Outcomes of Copenhagen”, UNDP, Feb. 2010




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                         03/08/2010




  Thank you!
  Obrigado!

haroldoclima@gmail.com




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                                                                                                  03/08/2010




     Sustainable Energy For All
Inter-American Development Bank



                Mechanisms for financing
                new projects in the region

     Regional development of complementary energy sources



                                          Oil & Gas Industry Seminar: Regional Responses to
                                          Global Challenges
                                          Paramaribo, Suriname
                                          July 22nd, 2010




 I) Who is the IDB?
   The IDB is the main source of multilateral financing and expertise for
   sustainable economic, social and institutional development in LA and the
   Caribbean.

   It supports its 26 borrowing member countries with:

    Grants - Technical assistance
    Guarantees
    Loans
    Investments

    It provides more financing to LA and the Caribbean than any other
   government-owned regional financial institution.

    In March 2010, the Governors of the IDB agreed to increase the Bank’s
   capital by $70 billion to more than $170 billion (the largest increase in its
   history) allowing to double its lending capacity to $12 billion a year.




                                                                                              2




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II) Support for the Public and Private Sector
                                                         IDB GROUP


    Inter-American                                  Multilateral
   Development Bank                            Investment Fund

                                    Using both grants and            Support for small and
    Offers member                       investments, it                  medium-sized
countries multilateral               finances projects of            businesses with long-
    financing and                     organizations that                term financing.
     expertise for                  promote development
sustainable economic,                of micro and SMEs.              It finances expansion
social and institutional                                                  projects in all
                                      Provides resources to both,       economic sectors
 development in Latin                  public and private sector
                                                                         (except for arms
   America and the                     organizations (non-profit,
                                         industry associations,         manufacturing and
      Caribbean.
                                      chambers of commerce and       trade, gambling, and real
                                             foundations)               estate speculation).
                                                                                                 3




III) IDB’s Sectors
                                                      Electricity



                            Transport
                                                   Climate Change



                             Energy
 Infrastructure and                                  Oil and Gas
Environment Sector
        (INE)

                       Water and Sanitation
                                                       Nuclear
 Social Sector (SCL)

                        Rural development
  Knowledge and        and natural disasters            Hydro
  Learning Sector
       (KNL)


    Institutional
Capacity and Finance
     Sector (ICF)


  Integration and
 Trade Sector (INT)

                                                                                                 4




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IDB’s Energy Sector
                                                                                                                          The energy sector is
                                                                                                                          the second most
                                                                                                                          important sector of
                                                                                                                          the IDB with respect
                                                                                                                          to approved loans.


                                                                                                                           The IDB is the main
                                                                                                                          international
                                                                                                                          organization
                                                                                                                          responsible for the
                                                                                                                          financing of energy
                                                                                                                          projects in the Latin
                                                                                                                          America and the
                                                                                                                          Caribbean Region.




Note: Totals include syndicated private-sector "B-loans.“ Source: IDB http://www.iadb.org/aboutus/whatwedo/index.cfm?id=6078#                 5




IV) Priority Areas in the Energy Division
 Objective

 Support the sustainable development of the energy
 sector, focusing on the most effective investments and
 policies to close the gap between demand and supply.

 Activities

         Promote Sustainable Energy (SE), including RE,
           EE, energy conservation, bioenergy, sustainable biofuels
         Rehabilitation of hydroelectric plants
         Energy Efficiency in the electricity, oil and gas sectors
        Climate Change Mitigation using RE & EE
         Support to the development of institutional and regulatory
        framework to promote SE
         Promotion of the Energy Sector Knowledge

                                                                                                                                              6




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V) Low carbon technology projects and energy access
 Renewable Energy
  Wind Power development
  Support on the development and rehabilitation
   of hydropower
  Mini-hydro power
  Bioenergy (Biofuels and cogeneration)
  Energy Efficiency
  Geothermal Power development
  Photovoltaic technology


 Adequate use of Conventional Energy and
 efficient operation
  Combined cycle plants
  Petrochemical industry
  Refining industry


 Development and expansion of transmission
 and distribution grids

                                                                                               7




VI) Bank’s Financial Resources
 The IDB Group uses loans, grants, guarantees and investments
 to fund public and private investment projects and policy reform.

 Bank’s Financial Resources

 a) Ordinary Capital (OC): include callable capital, and paid-in capital from IDB member
    countries, as well as reserves and funds borrowed in international markets.

 b) Fund for Special Operations (FSO): Intended for less advantaged countries. FSO
    resources are used for grants, subsidized loans and debt relief for the five weakest
    economies of the region: Bolivia, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua.
    Resources from the FSO also finance subsidized interest rates for loans to countries
    eligible for assistance under the Intermediate Financing Facility: Ecuador, El Salvador,
    Guatemala, Paraguay and Suriname.

 c) Trust funds: established by individual countries or groups of countries. The IDB
    administers about 40 trust funds and other funds in administration.

 d) Cofinancing: The IDB participates in cofinancing arrangements with other donors for
    its public and private sector projects.


                                                                                               8




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Financial Mechanisms: Loans
                              Investment loans

a.1) Loans for specific projects: to finance an investment project that is
     wholly defined at the time the Bank's loan is approved. Projects focus on
     one development sector or sub-sector. Example: an electricity distribution
     and transmission program.

a.2) Loans for Multiple Works Programs: to finance groups of similar works
     that are physically independent and whose feasibility does not depend on
     the implementation of other works projects.

a.3) Innovation Loans (ILs), support the testing and piloting of new
     approaches and emphasize capacity-building and learning. They can help
     to: (a) demonstrate the potential of taking a specific approach to overcome
     a development constraint, (b) achieve consensus, (c) gather valuable
     institutional experience, or (d) boost institutional capacity prior to larger
     scale programs.


                                                                                     9




Financial Mechanisms : Loans
                            Policy Based Loans

Policy-Based Loans provide flexible support for institutional and policy
    changes on the sector or sub-sector level, through fast-disbursing funds.

   Do not require counterpart funding.

   The borrower can choose between two interest rate options: Pool-based
    adjustable lending rate option (ADJ SCF) and LIBOR-based lending rate
    option (LIBOR SCF).

   At the request of the borrower, a sector adjustment loan may include an
    investment component, in which case it becomes a Hybrid Loan.




                                                                                     10




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Financial Mechanisms
                                 Guarantees

 The IDB can guarantee loans made by private financial sources to the public
 and private sectors in Latin America and the Caribbean to promote investment
 in the borrowing countries.

   Public Sector Guarantees
    Provide the option of disbursing loans in the form of a guarantee. Allows the
    borrower to take all or a portion of a loan disbursement in the form of a
    guarantee, and use that guarantee to enhance the terms of borrowing from
    private sector sources.

   Private Sector Guarantees
    Made available directly to private businesses and subnational government
    entities without a government guarantee, using market-based pricing.
    The IDB guarantee operations include partial credit and political risk
    guarantees for private sector projects financed with private debt.


                                                                                     11




Financial Mechanism
                                 Investments

The IDB does not make direct equity investments itself, but the
Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) and the Inter-American
Investment Corporation (IIC), both IDB affiliates,
do invest in private businesses.

   MIF
    It invests in equity funds and microfinance institutions that in turn, provide
    assistance to micro and small businesses.

   IIC
    Independent affiliate of the IDB Group, invests in small and medium-size
    private projects, either directly or through equity funds.
    It makes equity investments of up to 33 percent of a company's capital.



                                                                                     12




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Non-Financial Mechanisms: Grants

Technical Cooperation (TC) and Knowledge and
Capacity Building Products (KCP) for institutional strengthening,
transfer of knowledge and studies, including diagnostic,
pre-investment and sector studies that support project
design and preparation.

TCs can be:
     nonreimbursable (grants), targeted to the least-developed countries of the
      region and to those that have insufficient financial markets.

     reimbursable (loans),

     contingent-recovery (reimbursable if the program gets additional funding).




                                                                                         13




VII) Examples of IDB’s Energy Projects
                                Generation & Transmission
    Novatrans                       USD 338    1,278 km                        Brazil
    Power Transmission Line         millions   1,200 MW
    Pando-Monte Lirio               USD 291    83.3MW                         Panama
    Hydroelectric Power Project     millions
    TermoMaranhao                     USD      360 MW coal-fired thermal       Brazil
    Thermoelectric Power Plant       1,087     generation plan
    Project                         millions
    Gas Pipeline Integration          USD      Vol. of transported gas: 18   Regional
    Bolivia-Brazil                   1,699     million cubic meters per
                                    millions   day
    PETROECUADOR:                   USD 50     Modernize the transport        Ecuador
    Modernization pumping           millions   system of refined products.
    stations pipeline
    Esmeraldas-Quito
    Multiphase Rural                USD 55     Multiphase initiative, (to    Guatemala
    Electrification Program –       millions   reach investment and rural
    Phase I                                    coverage)

                                                                                         14




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                      Alternative Sources of Energy

   Eurus Wind            USD 525    Construction and operation of a 250       Mexico
   Project               millions   MW wind farm
   Maple Ethanol        USD 245.5 Construction and operation of a 35           Peru
   Project               millions million gallons per year ethanol
                                  distillery
   Energia Pacifico      USD 36.7   15.6MW Biomass Cogeneration Plant          Chile
   S.A. (Biomass)        millions


                   Energy Regulatory Framework
   Power Sector Support     USD 12     Promoting reduction of electricity     Guyana
   Program                  millions   losses, while including reforms and
                                       strengthening measures to the
                                       regulatory framework.
   Development of a         USD 150    Support the development of a new         Peru
   New Sustainable          millions   sustainable energy matrix.
   Energy Matrix
   Program

                                                                                        15




VIII) IDB’s Alternative Energy
Regional Projects in the Caribbean


   Regional        Caribbean Tourism            Caribbean Hotel Energy       USD 1
                   Organization                 Efficiency Action            million
                   and Caribbean Hotel and      Program –CHENACT
                   Tourism Association          Project

   Regional        CARICOM                      Capacity building for        USD 0.5
                   Caribbean Sustainable        R&D and Science and          millions
                   Energy Road Map (C-SERM)     Technology related to
                   Sustainable Energy           sustainable energy
                   Platform




                                                                                        16




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IDB’s Alternative Energy
Country Projects in the Caribbean

                         Promotion of bioenergy and sustainable    USD 0.9
 Guyana                  biofuels (Expanding Bioenergy             Millions
                         Opportunities in Guyana)
                         Support to the Energy Sector: Renewable   USD .5
 Suriname
                         and Bioenergy (technical cooperation)     Millions
                         Promote Sustainable Energy                USD 0.75
 The Bahamas             Assess RE and EE potential                Millions
                         Recommend policy and regulation
                         Wind and Solar Development Program        USD 1
 Jamaica                 (Investment loan for developmental        Million
                         studies)
 Dominican                Energy Efficiency – Public Buildings     USD .3
 Republic                                                          Millions
                         GEF Emergency Program for Solar Power     USD 2
 Haiti
                         Generation and Lighting                   Millions

                                                                              17




                Inter-American Development Bank
                 Jesús Alberto Tejeda Ricárdez, PhD
               International Energy Specialist INE/ENE
                           jesust@iadb.org
                          http://www.iadb.org




                                                                              18




                                                                                           9
                                                                8/3/2010




COMPLEMENTARY ENERGY
SOURCES - JAMAICA CASE STUDY

                 Michelle Chin Lenn, Wigton Windfarm Limited
                                  Oil & Gas Industry Seminar:
                      Regional Response to Global Challenges
                                                July 22, 2010




              CONTENTS
      Jamaica Energy Scenario

      Framework for Renewables

      Overview of Renewables in Jamaica

      Wigton Windfarm – Wind Experience
        Original Project Development
        Operations
        Expansion




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       JAMAICAN ENERGY SCENARIO
          Heavy Reliance on Imported Fossil Fuels
            High exposure to price volatility

          2008 Electricity Generation (based on actually
           MWh energy generated from JPS 2008 annual
           report)
            95% - Oil Based Generation
            4% - Hydro
            1% - Wind




    FRAMEWORK FOR RENEWABLES
   1995 Energy Policy followed by National Energy Policy: 2009-
    2030
     Diversification of fuels
     Development of renewable energy resources
     Current Grid installed capacity: 785 MW
      • Increase Jamaica's renewable energy use from ~5% by
        capacity (i.e 2.5% wind, 2.5% hydro) to
        • 11%          by 2012
        • 12.5%        by 2015
        • 15%          by 2020
        • 20%          by 2030
    Current Renewable Energy Pricing Framework:
              Avoided cost + up to 15% premium
                i.e. up to US 10.21 cents/ kWh




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                                                                      8/3/2010




    FRAMEWORK FOR RENEWABLES

   Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica, PCJ (State Owned)
     Energy Company to Implement Energy Policy

   Liberalized Electricity Generation in Jamaica since 2001

   Jamaica Public Service Co. (Utility Co.)
     Grid Operators & Generators (including hydro plants)
     Also purchases from Independent Power Producers (IPPs)
      • Wigton Windfarm Limited is an IPP




    OVERVIEW - RENEWABLES IN
            JAMAICA

Hydro
 24 MW from 8 sites
 Additional potential:
   40 MW from 15 sites
   Or 80 MW from 16 sites


Waste to Energy                 Laughlands River, St. Ann - Jamaica
 25 MW plant 2013
 40 MW plant 2014




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         OVERVIEW- RENEWABLES IN JAMAICA
     PhotoVoltaics
        Distributed generation at some houses/ complexes
        Barriers: Lack of net metering (high cost of batteries)

        >8 Private Solar Photovoltaic (PV) system private contractors
        >200 KW of residential solar PV installed
        >104KW of small commercial solar PV installed

        PCJ has installed Solar PV systems in hospitals and complexes:
          Cornwall Regional Hospital (3.0KW)
          Princess Margaret Hospital (2.5KW)
          St. Anns Bay Hospital (2.7KW)
          Eden Gardens (1.3KW)




         OVERVIEW - RENEWABLES IN JAMAICA
    Wind
     2 wind projects currently under construction:

         Wind Farm           Size          Details
         JPS                 3 MW          4 x 750 kW Unison WTGs
         Wigton II           18 MW         9 x 2 MW Vestas WTGs


   IDB Grant Funding starting
    in 2010 for wind resource
    assessment of 20 potential
    wind sites




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WIND FARM DEVELOPMENT PROCESS
   Wind Resource Assessment
   Feasibility Study
   Detailed Engineering Design
   Permitting & Agreements                                       Tower
   Procurement and Installation




                                                                 Anemometer
         Wind Vane       Data Logger   Turbine site modeling




    WIGTON I WIND FARM OVERVIEW
        20.7 MW Capacity

        23 – 900 kW WTG

        Subsidiary of PCJ

        Plant Commissioned in 2004

        20 year PPA with JPSCo.               Staffing
          Energy only contract                •Kingston - Head office
                                                     7 staff members

                                               •Manchester - Plant
                                                    6 staff members




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                      RATIONALE FOR WIGTON I
   Energy Diversification
     Reduced Reliance on Depleting Fossil Fuels
     Energy Security – No fuel supply required

   Clean, Sustainable
     No acid rain, pollution, smog, respiratory illness
     Greenhouse Gas Reductions
     Signatory to UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol

   Reduced Oil Importation
     Foreign Exchange Savings

   Technology Transfer
     Local Engineers & Contracting firms




HOW WAS WIGTON SITE SELECTED?
                  NRG 9200 loggers used to collect wind data at 4 sites
                              Green Castle March 1995 – February 1996:      7.2 m/s
                                Wigton     January 1996 – February 2003: 8.3 m/s
                               Blenheim    June 1996 – February 1998:       7.3 m/s
                               Spur Tree   March 1996 – September 1998: 7.7 m/s

                                                           Data extrapolated to hub
                                                           height of 49 m


                                            Green Castle


                      Spur Tree
                  Wigton Blenheim




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            WIND STUDY FINDINGS
           Coastal areas such as Green Castle had a high diurnal variation
             Wind speeds higher in the afternoon peaking at about 2:00 pm and
              very low between 12:00 am – 10:00 am

           Blenheim wind regime was found to be turbulent and gusty (near
            limit according to IEC safety standards for wind turbines)
             Not ideal for wind power generation

           Wigton and Spur Tree are elevated areas where the wind from the
            sea is deflected by the cliff face up to these sites
             More constant diurnal wind pattern experienced
             Wigton speeds higher than Spur Tree




                    WIND EXPERIENCE IN JAMAICA
225 kW Munro wind turbine                    20.7 MW Wigton Windfarm
 Installed 1996                              5.5 years operating

     Intermittent operation                  30% Capacity Factor

   Older technology had less                 Survived 2 hurricanes
    ‘ride through’ capabilities               Main historical challenges
   No maintenance plan                         Reliable reactive power
   Lightning strikes                            compensation system
                                                Low energy rates
                                                High financial cost for loan
                                                 repayment




            Munro
                                                Wigton




                                                                                       7
                                                                                 8/3/2010




                        12%                      NCB Loan = US$ 16 M



             25%                                 Dutch Grant = US$ 6.6 M

                                     62%

                                                 PCJ Equity = US$ 3.2 M




WIGTON I – CONSTRUCTION
HIGHLIGHTS
   ~8 km of roadway rehabilitated & constructed

   23 Turbine foundations built

   On-site sub-station built (24 kV/69 kV, 25 MVA
    transformer)

   Metmast installed

   Underground cable trenches prepared                 Foundation Steel Frame

   11.3 km Overhead transmission line
    constructed
                                                          Steel frame
   Spur Tree sub-station upgraded                       inserted into
                                                         foundation hole

                                                            On-site substation




                                                                                       8
                                                                                                                                                        8/3/2010




                   Record Production 2009/10
                   60,000,000                                         55,734,200                                                59,407,631
                                                     51,433,650                          53,216,800

                   50,000,000                                                                                 45,930,100
                                   44,206,037

                   40,000,000
            kWh




                   30,000,000

                   20,000,000

                   10,000,000

                               0
                                    2004/05           2005/06              2006/07         2007/08             2008/09           2009/10

                       Hurricane Ivan
                                                                                     Cable breaks
                                                                                     Lightning damage
                                                                                     Capacitor bank failures




                                         WIGTON I- SEASONAL
                                         PRODUCTION TRENDS
      10,000,000


       8,000,000
                                                                                               Hurricane Ivan
       6,000,000
kWh




       4,000,000


       2,000,000


              0
                       April       May        June      July      August     September   October   November    December    January   February   March

                                         2004-05         2005-06           2006-07        2007-08        2008-09           2009-10




          Summer months: Higher production
          Average Production: 50 GWh/ yr (~ 20,000 homes)
          Average Capacity Factor ~ 30%




                                                                                                                                                              9
                                                                                              8/3/2010




        HURRICANES IVAN & DEAN
                     Ivan (2004)                               Dean (2007)
Hurricane Strength   5                                         4
Turbine Effects      12 Nacelle covers damaged                 Minor fiber glass damage
                     18 cover locks damaged                   to nacelle covers
                      17 hatch doors damaged                   8 cover locks damaged

                      10 aircraft warning lights blown         8 hatch doors damaged

                     out                                       5 aircraft warning lights
                     Example of Fiberglass                     blown out
                     Damage
                     Hub Hatch door
Transmission Lines   31 days for full repair and               14 days for full repair and
                     energization                              energization

Communication        Radio and microwave dish                  Dedicated Internet Access
System               experienced some damage                   (DIA) infrastructure
                                                               damaged
Repair Costs         Approximately US$640 K                    Approximately US$106 K




     LIGHTNING DAMAGE EXPERIENCE
                     Delamination                     Lightning strike on T21
                     along trailing edge
                                                      Vestas product specialist determined
                                                       blade could not be repaired

                                                      LM Glassfiber manufactured a
                                                       replacement blade & spare

                                                      Special tools were shipped for blade
Nose cones exploded -lightning strike                  exchange




                                                           1 m crack at the leading edge
    Crack on both sides of widest chord




                                                                                                   10
                                                                               8/3/2010




    CARBON CREDITS EXPERIENCE

       Project was assessed as a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
        project

       Potential trading of CER’s was initially evaluated and promoted by
        EcoSecurities
         From BWEA, 1998 - average data pollutant savings per kWh from
          wind versus conventionally generated electricity are: 862 g CO 2,
          10 g SO2, 3 g NO2
         The CO2 savings are most significant
         Under the Kyoto protocol, countries can trade emissions
          reductions to satisfy GHG reductions target
         Thus a carbon market emerges


       Ministry of Land & Environment acted as Designated National
        Authority (DNA) for Jamaica




    CARBON CREDITS contd.
   Project Design Document (PDD) preparation and expenses were
    undertaken by the Andean Development Corporation, CAF
     CAF is a multilateral, regional, development bank; Jamaica is a member
      country
     CAF is acting as an agent of the Dutch government
      • CAF Netherlands CDM facility

   Det Norske Veritas (DNV) audited the project in July, 2005 for
    CDM registration

   Estimated annual CO2 to be realized was 52,000 tons/ year

   Project registered with the CDM Executive Board in March 2006




                                                                                    11
                                                                           8/3/2010




        TARGETED WIND SITES



                          Northern Ridge




                                        Wind speed map at 70 m elevation
            Munro   Wigton II Great Valley




               WIND EXPANSION PLANS

                         Target          Capacity     Capital Cost
      Project
                    Installation Year     (MW)         (US$ M)

Wigton II                 2010               18            49.9

Great Valley              2012               40            108

Munro Area                2013               20             54

North of Wigton           2015               20             54

                          Total              98           265.9




                                                                                12
                                                                         8/3/2010




WHY WIGTON II- 18 MW EXPANSION
CONTRIBUTION TO NATIONAL R.E. TARGETS
 Wind – Greatest Potential for Impact
   Hydro & PV small
   E-grass Jamaica feasibility not shown
   Tidal, Currents, Temp Differentials technology infancy


 ~100 MW Projected Capacity based on preliminary
 assessments subject to:
      Grid Capability
      Site Access/ Land Availability
      Proximity to Population Density




             PROPOSED NEW WIGTON LAYOUT
              Existing Turbines

                                         New Turbines




 Office/ Warehouse/
 Substations area

                                             Expansion turbines are
                                             east of existing turbines




                                                                              13
                                                                         8/3/2010




WIGTON II
HIGHLIGHTS
   100% Debt Financed
     PetroCaribe Development Fund
                                         Steel fitted foundation embed
   US$ 49.9 Million Budget

   Turnkey Project with Vestas

   Groundbreaking March 2010
   Commissioning projected: Nov. 2010
                                         Blades




                     Hub and nosecone             Nacelle




                    BENEFITS - WIGTON I & II
                       (Annual Projection)
            108 GWh electricity/ year

            64,000 Barrels of Oil Avoided

             US$ 4.49 Million Foreign Exchange Saved
             from oil avoided

            90,900 tonnes CO2 Emissions Avoided

            48,000 homes powered




                                                                              14
                              8/3/2010




    THANK YOU
  Wigton Windfarm Limited
     36 Trafalgar Road
         Kingston 10
    Tel: (876) 960-3994
    Fax: (876) 960-3108
michelle.chinlenn@wwfja.com




                                   15
                                             3/8/2010




Complementary Energy Resources:
        Brazil’s Experience


                        Milton Costa Filho
                         July 22th, 2010
                      Paramaribo, Suriname




Global Challenges




                                                   1
                                                                                                                                    3/8/2010




                                                                                                                   Energy Poverty
• The lack of access to clean, efficient,
affordable and reliable energy services
hamper the development of the most
vulnerable populations
• Approximately, there are around three
billions people relying in traditional
biomass for heating and cooking
                                             Electricity Access, 2008

     1600                                                                                      1456      120%
     1400                                        92,70%                          99,80%
                                                            89,10%                                       100%
     1200                                                                                       78,20%
                              77,20%                                                                     80%
     1000                       809
      800                                                                                                60%
             589
      600       40%                                                                                      40%
      400
                                                                                                         20%
      200                                          34        21                     3
        0                                                                                                0%
                                Developing




                                                             Middle East
              Africa




                                                  America




                                                                                Economies




                                                                                                World
                                                                                Transition

                                                                                 & OCDE
                                                   Latin
                                  Asia




                       Population without electricity (millions)              Electrification rate (%)



Source: IEA and UNDP




                                                                                                                Energy Investment

                 Cumulative Investment in Energy-Supply
                       Infaestructure, 2008 - 2020
                               Total investment = US$25.6 trillion

                                         Gas                               Pow er
                                        19,9%                              53,5%




                               Oil
                              23,0%




                                Biofuels
                                  0,8% Mining
                                                2,7%




 • To achieve, by 2030, universal access
 to electricity, requires additional
 investment of US$ 35 billion per year.



Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, IEA and UNDP




                                                                                                                                          2
                                                                         3/8/2010




                                                   World Energy Matrix

   • All forms of energy will grow in the
   next two decades, but fossil fuels
   will continue to be the dominant
   source of primary energy worldwide.



                    Primary Energy Demand, 2030
                                       Coal
                    Other              29.1%
                renewables
                     2.2%
             Biomaas and
                 waste                      Oil
                  9.6%                     29.8%
            Hydro
             2.4% Nuclear
                        5.7%
                                Gas
                               21.2%




Source: World Energy Outlook 2009




                                                      Climate Change


• According to current greenhouse-gas
emission trends, long-term concentration
of C02 equivalent will reach approximately
1000 ppm by the end of century.




• To limit global temperature increase to
2oC, greenhouse-gas concentratios
must be stabilized at 450 ppm of carbon
dioxide equivalent.




Source: World Energy Outlook 2009




                                                                               3
                                                                                         3/8/2010




                                            Changes are needed
 Current energy trends are not                       World Primary Energy Demand
                                                        in the 450 Scenario, 2030
sustainable                                                    Coal
                                                              18,2%
 A change in the patterns of                      Other
                                                renew ables
                                                                                  Oil
                                                                                 29,5%
                                                   5,0%
consumption and the way energy is
                                               Biom aas and
produced is crucial                               w aste
                                                  13,6%

 The world must speed up the                             Hydro
                                                           3,4%
                                                                          Gas
                                                               Nuclear
development of new cleaner and more                             9,9%     20,4%



balanced energy matrix and promote a
rational and efficient use of energy
Just by using or deploying known
technologies, the world could save up to
63 million barrels of oil equivalente per
day out of the projected daily
consumption for 2020 (Mckinsey Global
Institute)
Source: World Energy Outlook 2009




   Brazil’s Energy Matrix Evolution




                                                                                               4
                                                                                                                                             3/8/2010




                                                                                                 Energy Matrix

    • Biomass have been always important
    for the energy mix of Brazil, but in the
    past firewood counted for the lion share




                     Domestic Energy Supply, 1973

                     Oil
                    46,5%
                                                      Gas
                                                      0,4%
            Biomass and                                          Coal
               waste                                             2,9%
               44,2%                               Hydro and

•
                                                   electricity
                                                      6,0%




Source:Balance Energético Nacional, Series Historicas, MNE




                                                                                                 Energy Matrix
                                                                        • After 35 years, Brazil has been able to
                                                                        built one of the most diversified and
                                                                        sustainable energy matrix in the world

                                                                                     Domestic Energy Supply, 2009

                                                                                       Oil
                                                                                                                   Gas
                                                                                      37,9%
                                                                                                                   8,8%
                                                                                                                       Coal
                                                                                                                       4,8%
                                                                                                                       Nuclear
                                                                                                                        1,4%


                                                                                 Biomass and                      Hydro and
                                                                                    waste                         electricity
                                                                                    32,0%                           15,2%




                                                                        • Renewables: Brazil => 47.2%; OECD
                                                                        => 7.2%; World => 12.7%

                                                                          Biomass: Firewood 10.1%; Sugar cane products 18.0%; Others 3.8%0


Source: Resenha Energética Brasileira, Exercício de 2009 (Preliminar), MME




                                                                                                                                                   5
                                                                                       3/8/2010




                                                                             Ethanol

     • Brazil has the largest experience
     of use of ethanol as motor fuel


            Energy Matriz for Terrestrial Transport, 2009
                       Natural Gas
                          3,2%
                                                    Diesel
                     Ethanol                        50,9%
                      20,4%




                     Gasoline
                      25,4%




     • Ethanol consumption has
     exceeded that of gasoline


Source: Resenha Energética Brasileira, Exercício de 2009 (Preliminar), MME




        Biofuels in Brazil




                                                                                             6
                                                                                                   3/8/2010




            Drivers for Production and Use of Biofuels
                                                            Reduction of regional inequalities;
                                     Regional Development   promotion of idle land occupation;
                                                            and generation of income in excluded
                                                            rural areas




                Energy Security                                   Environment
 Reduction of fossil fuel external                          Reduction of GHE emissions that
 dependency and diversification                             contribute to global warning trough
 of energy sources                                          the substitution of renewable fuels
                                                            for fossil ones

Source: WookMackenzie




                                        Brazilian Alcohol Program
         1975 => Beginning of the Ethanol
               Program (Proálcool)


 Main goals:


        To reduce oil imports
        To stabilize sugar market
        To increase the growth of the
         domestic capital goods sector
        To increase national income
         through the deployment of idle
         resources (land and labor)




                                                                                                         7
                                                                                                                                                                                                            3/8/2010




                                                                       History of ethanol as a fuel in Brazil
                                                               Incentives, mandatory blends,                              Deregulation,                     Flex fuel        Global
                                                                     new technologies                                     Sugar Exports                                      Market?
                                          30.000
                                                                                                     Ethanol Crisis at the end of                                 2003
                                                                                                                 80’s                                       Flex fuel vehicles
                                          25.000                                                    Oil prices down. Brazilian                              begin to be sold.
                                                                                                    government cuts support.
    Ethanol Production (billion liters)




                                                                                                    Higher sugar prices affect
                                                                                                    ethanol production and
                                          20.000
                                                                                                    sales of E-100 cars went
                                                                                                    down rapidly
                                                                                                                                                                                                Anhydrous
                                          15.000
                                                                                                                                                                                                Hydrous
                                                        1975 Pro-Alcohol First Phase
                                                       Mandatory blend and subsidies
                                          10.000



                                           5.000



                                               0
                                              70

                                                     72

                                                            74

                                                                   76

                                                                          78

                                                                                 80

                                                                                        82

                                                                                               84

                                                                                                      86

                                                                                                             88

                                                                                                                    90

                                                                                                                           92

                                                                                                                                  94

                                                                                                                                         96

                                                                                                                                                98

                                                                                                                                                       00

                                                                                                                                                              02

                                                                                                                                                                     04

                                                                                                                                                                            06

                                                                                                                                                                                   08
                                            19

                                                   19

                                                          19

                                                                 19

                                                                        19

                                                                               19

                                                                                      19

                                                                                             19

                                                                                                    19

                                                                                                           19

                                                                                                                  19

                                                                                                                         19

                                                                                                                                19

                                                                                                                                       19

                                                                                                                                              19

                                                                                                                                                     20

                                                                                                                                                            20

                                                                                                                                                                   20

                                                                                                                                                                          20

                                                                                                                                                                                 20
                                                  1973                        1979-1978 Pro-Alcohol – Second Phase
                                          Oil Crisis and low           Fiscal incentives and tax exemptions for ethanol
                                          sugar prices                 production and E-100 fueled cars. All gas stations
                                                                       must obligatorily sell ethanol. Low ethanol prices
                                                                       (65% of gasoline’s) guaranteed at the pump.
                                                                                                                                        Estimated 2010/11 production: 33,000 millions liters


Source: BEN 2009, MME and MAPA




                                                                                                                            Ethanol Consumption

                                                                             Evolution of Fuel Ethanol Consumption in Brasil
                                                                                               (million liters)

                                            25.000


                                            20.000


                                            15.000


                                            10.000


                                             5.000



                                                   0
                                                 75


                                                          77


                                                                  79


                                                                          81


                                                                                 83


                                                                                         85


                                                                                                 87


                                                                                                          89


                                                                                                                    91


                                                                                                                           93


                                                                                                                                   95


                                                                                                                                           97


                                                                                                                                                  99


                                                                                                                                                          01


                                                                                                                                                                     03


                                                                                                                                                                            05


                                                                                                                                                                                    07


                                                                                                                                                                                           09
                                               19


                                                        19


                                                                19


                                                                        19


                                                                               19


                                                                                       19


                                                                                               19


                                                                                                        19


                                                                                                                  19


                                                                                                                         19


                                                                                                                                 19


                                                                                                                                         19


                                                                                                                                                19


                                                                                                                                                        20


                                                                                                                                                                   20


                                                                                                                                                                          20


                                                                                                                                                                                  20


                                                                                                                                                                                         20




                                                                                                             Anhydrous           Hydrous




Source: Anuario Estadístico de Agroenergía 2009, MAPA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8
                                                                                                                       3/8/2010




                                                Evolution of Light Vehicle Fleet

                        45.000

                                                                                                                  7%
                        40.000

                        35.000
    Thousand vehicles




                        30.000

                        25.000
                                                                                                              75%
                        20.000

                        15.000

                        10.000
                                                                                                                  1%
                         5.000
                                                                                                              17%
                            0
                             1990     1995        2000         2005              2010         2015         2020

                                       Gasoline      Alcohol          Flexfuel           Diesel

Source: Estratégia / Petrobras




                                                                                    Basic Factors

                             Expansion of the Ethanol Industry:
                           Growth of Sugar         Brazilian Agroindustry                   Technological
                                                                                         Development of the
                             Production              Competitiveness                     Automobile Industry


                 Introduction      of    new      Development      of   new             At     the      beginning,
                 variaties of sugar cane; use     systems of milling and                automakers developed 100
                 of vignasse as fertilizer;       larger        fermentation            % run-ethanol vehicles.
                 biological     control    of     capacity.   Energy    self-           Afterward,        flex-fuel
                 plagues, optimization of         sufficient   plants,   and            automobiles were produced
                 operations, among others         completely automatized.




                                                                                                                             9
                                                                                                      3/8/2010




                                       National Biodiesel Program

   To diversify the Energy Matrix

   To reduce Diesel Imports


   To create employment and to
    generate income

   To strength rural families

   To use unsuitable land for
    food production

   To develop an environmentally
    friendly fuel




                                       National Biodiesel Program

Law 11.097/2005 – It sets up minimal percentages of biodiesel-diesel blend

                                              Mandatory
         2005 - 2007                           Jan 2008 – 2%                      5% mandatory
         2% optional                          Jul 2008 – 3%                        Jan 2010
                                              Jul 2009 – 4%



     Law 11.116/2005: It sets up a federal tax model and creates the concept of Social Fuel Seal
                     :

         Total or partial exemptions for specific taxes, according to the type of producer, region
         and feedstock

          Social Fuel Concept: Produced through the link between biodiesel producers and
         family farmers




                                                                                                           10
                                                                         3/8/2010




                                                      Social Fuel Seal
• Social Fuel Seal:
Awarded by the Ministry of Agrarian
Development      (MDA),    establishes     the
conditions for industrial producers of
biodiesel to obtain tax benefits and credit.

• Requirements to obtain the seal:
    To purchase feedstock from family farmers
    To enter into a legally binding agreement
    with them to establish specific income levels
    To guarantee technical assistance and
    training

• Benefits of Social Fuel Seal:
     Exemptions of federal taxes
     Access to special financial lines provided by
     BNDES
     Participation in bids to sell biodiesel,
     organized by the National Oil Agency




Controversial issues about Biofuels




                                                                              11
                                                                     3/8/2010




                                                      Concerns
    Demand for biofuels continues
    to grow strongly. However,
    some public and political
    concerns have recently risen:
   Higher food prices / Food Security;

   High subsidies;

   Relatively low greenhouse gas (CHG)
    abatement, or even net increases for some
    biofuels, based on full life-cycle assessments;

   High marginal carbon abatement costs($/t CO2
    avoided);

   Impact on deforestation and habitat loss

   Enviromental impacts including competition
    for water supplies




                        Ethanol Production & Deforestation

           Sugarcane for ethanol
           production occupies
           1% of Brazil´s arable land




             25 million hectares of
             degraded pastures are
             available for sugarcane
                                                          87% of
                                                        sugarcane
                                                        production




Sources: NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC




                                                                          12
                                                                                            3/8/2010




                                                                Mitigating Global Warning
    The energy balance of Brazilian ethanol
    is 4.5 times better than that of ethanol
    produced from sugar beet or wheat,
    and almost seven times better than
    ethanol produced from corn.

                                  Energy Balance
                       Data represent the amount of energy
                  Contained in ethanol per unit of fossil fuel input


  10            9,3
   9
   8
   7
   6
   5
   4
   3                                 2,0            2,0
   2                                                                 1,4
   1
   0
             Sugarcane              Wheat       Sugar beet          Corn



Source: World Watch Institute (2006) and Macedo et al (2008)
Date compiled by Unica and Icone




                                                                Mitigating Global Warning
  Several well-to-wheel estimates show
  that Brazilian sugarcane ethanol
  reduces emissions of greenhouse
  gases (GHG) by up to 90%, when used
  instead of gasoline.

                Average CHG Balance on a life-cycle gasis
             Emissions avoided with ethanol replacing gasoline


        0

       -10

       -20

       -30
                Ethanol for grain
       -40      (USA/Europe)

       -50                      Ethanol for sugar beet
       -60
                                        (USA)

       -70

       -80

       -90
                                                    Etanol for sugar cane
    -100                                                   (Brazil)




Source: IEA (2004)
Date compiled by Unica and Icone




                                                                                                 13
                                                                      3/8/2010




  Other Uses of Ethanol




                Breakdown of Sucarcane ‘s Energy


                         1/3                 1/3        1/3
                        Juice              Bagasse     Straw




                                                      Biolectricity
                        Sugar              Ethanol


                                                     Alcoquemical
                                Molasses               Bio-plastic




Source: UNICA




                                                                           14
                                                                                                                                     3/8/2010




                                                                                                     Bioelectricity

                                             Bioelectricity - Brazil's Potencial
                                                   (1000 MW average)

        16                                                                                                                    14,4
                          Brazil’s bioelectricity potential
        14                 could satisfy the demand of
                         coutries as Argentina of Sweden                                                          11,5
        12                                                                                       10,5
        10
         8                                                                           7,2

         6                                                               5,2
                                                           3,8
         4                                     2,7
                                   2
                   1,4
         2
         0




                                                                                                             6
                   7



                               8



                                               9



                                                           0



                                                                         1



                                                                                     2



                                                                                                 3




                                                                                                                              1
                                                                                                              1
                /0



                            /0



                                            /0



                                                        /1



                                                                      /1



                                                                                  /1



                                                                                              /1




                                                                                                                           /2
                                                                                                           5/
             06



                         07



                                        08



                                                     09



                                                                  10



                                                                               11



                                                                                           12




                                                                                                                         20
                                                                                                        01
         20



                       20



                                       20



                                                   20



                                                                 20



                                                                             20



                                                                                         20




                                                                                                                     20
                                                                                                      20
Source: UNICA




                                                                      Future Uses for Ethanol

                                             Ethanol-powered buses
                                             (E95) - still a pilot
                                             project in Brazil



                                                                                                                      Flex-fuel
                                                                                                                     motorcycles




                                                           Bio-plastics (PHB,
                                                           polyethylene, PVC)


                                                                                                     Use of ethanol in
                                                                                                     the biodiesel
                                                                                                     transesterification
                                                                                                     process
         Brazilian-made crop
         dusting planes running on
         ethanol




Source: UNICA




                                                                                                                                          15
                                                                                                                  3/8/2010




                                                         Green Polyethylene Cycle

                              Sunlight
            CO2                                  Ethanol           Ethylene                Green PE
                    Sugarcane                   CH3-CH2-OH         CH2=CH2                (CH2=CH2)




                  The sugarcane crop
                                              At the distillery,   Through the           The ethylene is
                  metabolizes the CO2
                                              the sugar juice is   dehydration, the      polymerized in
                  to produce sucrose
                                              fermented and        ethanol is            polyethylene
                                              distillated to       transformed in        production
                                              produce ethanol      ethylene              unities



                                                                                      Products
                               The green polyethylene
                                                                                      The green polyethylene
                               is 100% recyclable
                                                                                      is transformed in final
                                                                                      products in the same
                                                                                      unities already existents
                                                                                      at Braskem customers

                                                                        Carbon capture




Source: UNICA




     Final Comments




                                                                                                                       16
                                                                         3/8/2010




                                               Final Comments

 Given the urgency of the situation, it is imperative to shift into a
  more rational and efficient use of energy, capable of producing
  considerable inmediate benefits

 There is a need to accelerate the development of new energy
  sources in order to achieve a balanced sustainable world
  energy matrix in the long term

 Facts, like the recent Gulf of Mexico oil spill is going to put
  additional pressure to the development of alternative sources of
  energy

 One month ago, President Obama signaled a major change in
  USA’s energy policy, the largest energy consumer, implicating
  big changes for the world energy sector




THANK YOU




                                                                              17
                             Seminario ARPEL “Respuestas regionales a desafíos globales”




"Experiencia de ENAP en la búsqueda de
      energías complementarias”




                      Julio 2010




                Contenido

    1   ENAP: Estructura de la Compañía

    2   Mercado Nacional de Combustibles

    3   Oportunidad

    4   Apuesta de ENAP

    5   En resumen…




                                                                                           1
ENAP: Estructura Organizativa
ENAP es una Empresa del Estado de Chile, organizada en dos Líneas de Negocios:

Exploración y Producción: Integran Enap Sipetrol S.A. y el área de upstream de ENAP Magallanes.
Refinación y Logística: Integrada por Enap Refinerías S.A. (Refinerías Aconcagua y Bío Bío) y el área de
downstream de ENAP Magallanes.




           Exploración y Producción                               Refinación y Logística




          E&P                                                                              Gregorio




Exploración y Producción




                                                  Egipto            Irán
                                                                           VI


                                Ecuador



                                                      Argentina
                        Chile




   Exploración

   Producción




                                                                                                           2
  Refinación y Logística
                                     Iquique1
                                                                                        Esquema
                                                              E&P

                                     Antofagasta                           Refinación   Distribución,        Retail
                                                                                        Almacenamie
                                                                                            nto y
                                                                                          logística

                                 Santiago
                                 San Fernando            •ENAP
                                 Linares                 •Privados a
                                                                          •Abierto                           Abierto
                                                         través de
                                                         Concesiones      •Enap es
                                                                          refinador




                                                                                                                             RETAIL
                                                         (Contratos
                                                         especiales de
                          Pto. Montt 1                   operación:
                                                         CEOPS)
                          Chacabuco 1

                                                          Importación    Importación
                                                           de Crudo       Productos

                                    Magallanes



                                                             Abierto        Abierto        Abierto
  Almacenamiento                    Poliducto ENAP
  Refinerias                        Poliductos SONACOL
  Producción
Nota 1: Terminales de terceros




   Visión de la Agencia
   Internacional de Energía




        La demanda mundial de energía se expande en un 45% de aquí a 2030 - una tasa promedio de aumento del 1,6% al año -
        con el carbón en alza.




                                                                                                                                      3
Matriz Energética Nacional Histórica
           Teracalorias
 400.000
                                                                                                                                                          Leyenda
                                                                                                                        358.801
                                                                                                                        0,03% (E.Eolica)
                                                                                              336.712                                                  Renovables
 350.000
                                                                                                                                                       (Geotermia y E.
                                                                                                                            14%                        Eolica)
                                                                                                  13%
                                                                                                                                                       Biogás
 300.000                                                            286.291

                                                                                                                            18%                        Leña y Otros
                                                                        15%                       20%
 250.000
                                          223.762                                                                                                      Hidroelectricidad
                                                                        18%                                                 13%
                                              15%                                                 10%
 200.000                                                                                                                                               Carbón
                                                                                                                            6%
                160.170                                                11%
                                              23%
 150.000
                                                                                                                                                       Gas Natural
                     17%                                                                          19%
                                                                        15%
                    15%                      11%
                                                                                                                                                       Petróleo Crudo
                                              6%
 100.000
                    16%
                     9%

  50.000                                                                                                                                             Fuentes Información


                   43%                        45%                      41%                       38%                        49%                  CNE
       0
                   1990                      1995                      2000                      2005                      2008
           Considera Consumo Bruto de Energía Primaría + (Importaciones - Exportaciones) de Energía Secundaria
                                                                                                                                                                     Nov-2009
           Para Hidroelectricidad, Energía Eólica y Geotermia se utilizó una conversión de 2750 kcal/kwh hasta 1998, y de 2504 de 1999 en adelante




Matriz Energética Nacional Histórica
                                                           Dependencia Energética
           Teracalorias
 400.000

                        Nacional              Importado                                                                                              358.801
 350.000                                                                                                            336.712



 300.000                                                                           286.291
                                                                                                                                                       54%

 250.000
                                                    223.762                                                            68%

 200.000                                                                              68%
                   160.170
                                                      51%
 150.000

                      46%
 100.000
                                                                                                                                                       46%

                                                                                      32%                             32%
  50.000                                              49%
                     54%

      0
                      1990                            1995                            2000                            2005                             2008




                                                                                                                                                                                4
Oportunidad - Mercado Diesel en Chile

                       11.000
                                                                        Proyectado

                       10.000

                        9.000

                        8.000

                 Mm3    7.000

                        6.000

                        5.000

                        4.000

                        3.000

                        2.000

                        1.000

                           0



                       Gasolina   LPG       Kerosene      Diesel     Fuel Oil



          Del año 1992 al 2006 (previo a la crisis del gas), la demanda de
          diesel en Chile tuvo un crecimiento promedio de 5,2 % anual.




Producción de Biodiesel
  Primera Generación




             Biodiesel de Primera Generación
             • Es biodegrabable, al ser producido de materia prima vegetal.
             • Contribuye a la disminución de particulado y emisiones de CO.
             • Menor contenido de azufre (depende de la materia prima),
               aumenta el número de cetano y la lubricidad.




                                                                                     5
Producción de Biodiesel
  Segunda Generación




                                                                               Electricidad



                                                                                              Biocombustible




         Biodiesel de Segunda Generación (BTL)
         • Obtenido a partir de la gasificación de biomasa y posterior                 Químicos (Hidrógeno)
           obtención de combustibles líquidos en un proceso Fischer-Tropsch.
         • Alto número de cetano (83) y alto poder calorífico (46,6 MJ / kg,
           siendo el valor típico de alrededor de 43 MJ / kg).
         • Muy bajo contenido de azufre y no aromáticos.




Procesos posibles para obtención
        de combustibles




         Biodiesel Segunda
            Generación:
            a) Origen algal
                                                   Esta es nuestra apuesta.
          b) Origen Forestal




                                                                                                               6
Biomasa origen algal en Chile

 Escenario ideal para el cultivo de algas con
 potencial crecimiento de biomasa:
 • País con grandes extensiones de costa
 • Buena radiación solar
 • Generador de CO2




Biomasa origen forestal en Chile




                     País forestal con abundancia de bosques naturales




                                                                         7
FORENERGY S.A. / BIOCOMSA

       Materia                        Tecnología                        Comercialización de
       prima                                                                Biodiesel

 Consorcio Maderero
 Universidad de Chile

                                                                           Comprador
 48%                     32%                                               de Biodiesel
                  20%



     Evaluar: Cómo sacar               Tecnología que a nivel
         provecho del                      industrial puede                Otras aplicaciones de la
   conocimiento que Chile                convertir biomasa              tecnología (Hidrógeno, vapor)
       tiene en materia                   forestal en diesel
    forestal para enfocarlo
       en este proyecto




Tecnología de Conversión
  de Biomasa a Diesel
Proceso de tres etapas para producción de diesel a partir de biomasa:




                1º etapa                     2º etapa                   3º etapa: Fischer
              gasificación                 Tratamiento                       Tropsch
                                              gases


   1. Gasificación: producción de una corriente de combustible gaseoso, (gas de síntesis) por
       medio de la oxidación parcial de un combustible sólido, es decir, quemar la madera en un
       medio deficitario de oxígeno.
   2. Tratamiento de gases: lavado de gases para la reducción del alquitrán y metano
       producidos generalmente en la etapa de gasificación, y eliminación de sustancias no
       deseadas.
   3. Proceso de Fischer-Tropsch (FT) es una reacción química catalizada en la cual el monóxido
       de carbono y el hidrógeno se convierten en hidrocarburos líquidos, substitutos sintéticos
       del petróleo, posibles de ser usados como aceite de lubricación o como combustible.




                                                                                                        8
En resumen…
   Los biocombustibles se han consolidando como un aporte a la reducción
    de gases de efecto invernadero y a la diversificación de la matriz
    energética.

   En Chile, la demanda de combustibles muestra un fuerte crecimiento del
    diesel, por sobre los demás combustibles. Nuestro país es deficitario de
    dicho combustible.

   ENAP está impulsando el desarrollo de biodiesel de
    segunda generación basado en biomasa forestal, por ser
    un recurso abundante en nuestro país y que proviene de
    una industria consolidada.

   El desarrollo de nuevas materias primas para la
    producción     de    biodiesel   genera     importantes
    expectativas para el desarrollo y crecimiento de esta
    industria en nuestro país, como las micro y macro algas
    (Bio-ETBE).




                                                                               9
                                                                                  8/3/2010




               ARPEL – Regional Responses to Global Changes



         Experience of Staatsolie Suriname
  in searching for complementary energy sources
     General Presentation April 2010
        Rudolf Elias – Dep. Director Business Development
               – Hydro oriented
                            22 July 2010




PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Experience of Staatsolie Suriname in searching for complementary energy sources




            1. Vision 2020 – Merit & Strategy                     4

            2. Wageningen: Biofuels                               3

            3. TapaJai: Hydropower                                4

            4. Lessons learned & Challenges ahead                 1




                                          2




                                                                                        1
                                                                                    8/3/2010




VISION 2020 – MERIT & STRATEGY (1)
WHAT: Three pillars towards the future




                                            3




VISION 2020 – MERIT & STRATEGY (2)
HOW: Implementation Strategy




                    Establish
                    near/offshore                              2019-2020
                    reserves                                 Rationalization
                    Produce biofuels                                   Establish
                    Expand product                            petroleum institute
                    portfolio             2016-2018
 Increase onshore                      Expansive growth
                    Increase market
 reserves           share                    Increase HC
 Secure robust                                 production
                          2013-2015
 organization                                     Generate
                          Transition
 Expand thermal                                 hydropower
 power production
      2009-2012
 Fundament for growth


                                            4




                                                                                          2
                                                                              8/3/2010




VISION 2020 – MERIT & STRATEGY (3)
WHY: Transform from an Oil & Gas company to an Energy company


•   Oil & Gas are finite, Peak oil to be reached sooner or later  Need for
    sustainable business
•   Sufficient cash generation, opportunity constrained in oil & gas
•   Energy is our business  Transform from Oil & Gas to Energy Co.
•   Energy Matrix  Search for suitable complementary energy sources




                                       5




VISION 2020 – MERIT & STRATEGY (4)
WHY: Top-ranked renewable energy opportunities


Biofuels: Sugarcane-based ethanol
• Octane enhancer for refinery product gasoline
• Land availability and agriculture in Wageningen
• Proven technology/ access to experience and expertise
• Contribution to energy independency
• GHG emissions reduction
• Capitalize on preferential market opportunities

Hydropower
• Strong demand growth in Suriname
• Hydro opportunity available
• Positive macro-economic effect
• Competitive and stable/ long-term predictable prices
• Potential for integrated regional grid
• Potential for carbon credits

                                       6




                                                                                    3
                                                                                                                        8/3/2010




PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Experience of Suriname in searching for complementary energy sources




                   1. Vision 2020 – Merit & Strategy                                      4

                   2. Wageningen: Biofuels                                                3

                   3. TapaJai: Hydropower                                                 4

                   4. Lessons learned & Challenges ahead                                  1




                                                                7




WAGENINGEN: BIOFUELS (1) – ETHANOL PROCESS & PRODUCTS OVERVIEW
Agriculture, processing plant, power plant

10,000 ha sugarcane cultivation                Sugarcane processing
                                                                              Sugar?

                                  1 mln ton
                                  cane/yr




                                                                             Bagasse
                                                                                                    Energy generation
                                                        Juice
  Bio-fertilizer

                                              Distillation
                                                                      Electricity to
                                                                      plant



                                   Vinasse                                             Electricity to grid
                                                                                       5 - 10MW




                                               Ethanol
                                               70,000-
                                               90,000m3/yr 8




                                                                                                                              4
                                                                                        8/3/2010




WAGENINGEN: BIOFUELS (2) – THE PILOT PROJECT
Key to success: Field test main variables to optimize results


•   14 sugarcane varieties from Brazil and Guyana selected
•   30 ha pilot area identified and being prepared
•   Approx. 200,000 plants being produced
•   Field experiments being designed with varieties, spacing, nutrients,
    herbicides, mechanical harvesting




                                               9




WAGENINGEN: BIOFUELS (3) – KEY ACTIVITIES & SCHEDULE
2010-2012 Studies & definition, Q1 2013 Investment decision, H1 2015 Start Operations


      2010                2011                2012                 2013     2014

    Pilot Project


       Agricultural Solutions Study

                                      Agricult. Definition

       Industrial Solutions Study

                                      Industr. Definition

              ESIA



                                                             Construction




                                               10




                                                                                              5
                                                                                                                         8/3/2010




PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Experience of Suriname in searching for complementary energy sources




                                    1. Vision 2020 – Merit & Strategy                                        4

                                    2. Wageningen: Biofuels                                                  3

                                    3. TapaJai: Hydropower                                                   4

                                    4. Lessons learned & Challenges ahead                                    1




                                                                          11




TAPAJAI: HYDROPOWER (1) – ELECTRICITY SUPPLY VERSUS DEMAND GAP
Strong demand growth of 6+ %/year creating significant supply gap


                                            Gap (incl. Reserve)
                              600
                                            Existing Supply
                                            Peak Demand Forecast
   Generation Capacity (MW)




                              500


                              400


                              300


                              200


                              100


                                0
                                     2010


                                              2011


                                                     2012


                                                            2013


                                                                   2014


                                                                               2015


                                                                                      2016


                                                                                             2017


                                                                                                    2018


                                                                                                           2019


                                                                                                                  2020




                                                                          12




                                                                                                                               6
                                                                                                                                           8/3/2010




TAPAJAI: HYDROPOWER (2) – HYDRO POTENTIAL IN SURINAME
Hydro potential in Suriname > 1200 MW



                      Brokopondo Dam


to Guyana                                           to French Guyana

                                                                           Phasing TapaJai creates
                                                                           opportunities for lower Capex
                                                                           and lower kWh price




                                                              High
 Kabalebo
 • 800 MW Installed                                                                                   Kabalebo
 • 300 MW Firm

                                       TapaJai




                                                             Capex
                                                                                                                 TapaJai All
                                       • 400 MW Installed                     TapaJai Ph1
                                                                                                                  Phases
                                       • 180 MW Firm


                                                                                                                               Grankriki




                                                              Low
                                                                     Low                        kWh Price                           High




                                                      13




TAPAJAI: HYDROPOWER (3) – PROJECT OVERVIEW
Complex of dams and powerplants diverting flow into Brokopondo reservoir

                                                                              Afobaka Power Station




                                                                            Canal


                                                                             Jai Dam




                                         Inundated Land                      Canal
                                         (swollen rivers)




                                                                            Tapanahoni
                                                                            Dam




                                                      14




                                                                                                                                                 7
                                                                                        8/3/2010




TAPAJAI: HYDROPOWER (4) – KEY ACTIVITIES & SCHEDULE
2010-2012 Studies & definition, Q1 2013 Investment decision, H1 2015 Start Operations


      2010              2011             2012              2013           2014

        Update Solutions Study

        ESIA

                 Definition



                                                     Construction




                                          15




PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
Experience of Suriname in searching for complementary energy sources




             1. Vision 2020 – Merit & Strategy                      4

             2. Wageningen: Biofuels                                3

             3. TapaJai: Hydropower                                 4

             4. Lessons learned & Challenges ahead                  1




                                          16




                                                                                              8
                                                                                  8/3/2010




LESSONS LEARNED & CHALLENGES AHEAD
Experience of Staatsolie Development team


Lesson Learned
• Need to establish separate unit for dedicated management attention
• Renewable projects have different drivers than traditional Oil & Gas industry
   (economics)
• Bilateral agreements follow-up bureaucratic, cannot keep pace with private
   corporations

Main Challenges on Wageningen – Biofuels
• Agriculture side: ton/ha, sucrose content, clay soils & mechanical harvesting
• Finding suitable partner for non core business (agriculture)
• Working in traditional rice farmers community

Main Challenges on TapaJai - Hydropower
• Social & Environmental, perception 1st Brokopondo project, public acceptance
• Diverting border river
• Finding common grounds with Alcoa (owner Brokopondo hydro powerstation)

                                        17




                                                                                        9
                                             Strategic Advisors in Global Energy




           Shaping a New Energy Agenda
         in Latin America & The Caribbean

Prepared for ARPEL                                        Presented by César González
by Alexander Van de Putte                                    ARPEL Executive Secretary


July 22, 2010                                                          Paramaribo, Suriname




Project context and objective


   These are uncertain times for the energy industry. Oil and gas
   companies face tremendous growth, sustainability and evolution
   challenges in an unstable political, economical and social environment.

   Even when many companies and institutions of the energy sector have
   developed or are in the process of developing their own Agenda, this
   joint ARPEL – PFC Energy project intends to involve a broad spectrum
   of stakeholders in the energy sector in analyzing the industry‟s global
   and regional challenges, in developing plausible scenarios of evolution
   for the oil and gas industry over the next 20 years, and ultimately, in
   establishing a reference roadmap reflecting their converging vision. A
   roadmap like this can help the industry respond to those challenges in
   a collaborative, cohesive and responsible manner.




                                         Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 2




                                                                                                                  1
Project steps

                                           LAC Energy Agenda Development
                                     4     • WS – part 1: Development of Energy Roadmap
                                           • WS – part 2: Presentation and discussion of findings
                                           • Codification of the LAC Energy Agenda

                              Scenario affirmation
                              • WS – part 1: Presentation and discussion of the scenarios
                        3     • WS – part 2: Scenario affirmation
                              • WS – part 3: Identification of leading, lagging and coincident indicators
                              • Editing of the scenario logics and finalization of the scenario quantification

                  Scenario building
                  • WS – part 1: Presentation and discussion of identified issues
                  • WS – part 2: Issue prioritization
                  • WS – part 3: Development of the focal questions
           2      • WS – part 4: Development of scenario logics
                  • WS – part 5: Presentation and discussion of findings
                  • Scenario writing; Scenario quantification

    Initial research and fact finding
    • Specification of the Central Question and the Scenarios Timeframe
    • Identification of stakeholders
1   • Issue identification
    • Issue survey
                                                          Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 3




The Central Questions for the scenarios


     1. What are the potential pathways for the development
        of the future world energy architecture until 2030.
     2. What are the implications for the Latin American &
        Caribbean energy industry of the anticipated
        developments in geopolitics, the international
        economic system, and energy security relationships.
     3. How do we envision the region‟s contribution in
        shaping the future world and regional energy
        architecture?



                                                          Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 4




                                                                                                                                   2
Issue survey




                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 5




Experts survey – 1/2

A total of 139 experts participated in the energy agenda survey. These
experts were selected from the following diverse backgrounds:
   – National Oil & Gas Companies
   – International Oil & Gas Companies
   – Independent Oil & Gas Companies
   – Oil Services Companies / Technology or Equipment Suppliers
   – Other Energy Companies
   – Consultants
   – Associations / International Organizations
   – Financial Institutions
   – Governments / Regulatory Bodies
   – Opinion Leaders / Media
   – Non-Governmental Organizations



                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 6




                                                                                                                    3
Experts survey – 2/2

These 139 experts come from 18 LAC Countries, Spain and the US:
                        21                                                                                                                                     21




 13
                                                                                                                                12
                                                                              11                           11

                                 8       8
              6                                                                         8
                                                    6
                                                                                                 5                                                                       4     4
                                                                 2
                                                                                                                     1                  1           1
                                                                 Dominicana
                                                    Costa Rica




                                                                                                                                                                               Venezuela
                                                                                                                                                  Trinidad Y
  Argentina




                                                                                                                     Paraguay
                                         Columbia




                                                                                                                                                               Uruguay
                                                                              Equador




                                                                                                 Jamaica




                                                                                                                                        Surinam
                                                                                        Espana




                                                                                                                                                  Tobago
                                                                                                            Mexico
              Bolivia

                        Brazil

                                 Chile




                                                                                                                                Peru




                                                                                                                                                                         USA
                                                                                                      Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 7




Issues Organized Using a
STEEP framework
                                                        Global Environment:
                                                    Political, Social & Economic
                                                                Issues




                                                                                Global &
     Global Energy                                                              Regional                                               Regional Energy
   Market Evolution                                                            Technology                                              Market Evolution
                                                                              Developments




                                                      Regional Environment:
                                                    Political, Social & Economic
                                                                Issues
                                                                                                      Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 8




                                                                                                                                                                                           4
                   Issue prioritization - Definitions
                    Degree of Uncertainty
                         – In the context of the central question and the 20 year timeframe, it is the “range of
                           value” an issue can take over time. In other words, organic, predictable issues like
                           “World population growth”, without a war/catastrophic event, will take a relatively small
                           range of values, i.e., low degree of uncertainty. On the other hand, issues like “War,
                           terrorism or other political violence”, being people / regime dependent, are more
                           unpredictable, and can take a large range of values, i.e., high degree of uncertainty
                    Degree of Impact
                         – Level of impact (high, medium, low) of the issue on the industry future over a 20 year
                           timeframe
                    Timing
                         – Timing when the impact of the issue becomes important (<3 years, 3-10 years, >10
                           years).




                                                                                             Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 9




                   Global Issue Map
                   Political, Social and Economic Issues
    High




                                                                                                                      Critical              1. Climate change
                                                                           1                                                                2. International
                                                                                         2                          Uncertainties              agreements on GHG
                                                                                                                                            3. Fight against famine
                                                                                                9
                                                                                                                                            4. World population growth
                                                           8                        10                                                      5. Urbanization
                                                                                                    7                                       6. Pandemics
                                                                           13
Degree of Impact




                                                                                                                                            7. War & terrorism
                                                4                11                                                                         8. Real GDP growth
                                                                      12                                                                    9. Economic instability
                                                                                                                                            10. Hyperinflation
                                                     5                                                                                      11. Regional trading blocks
                                                                 3
                                                                                                                                            12. Protectionism
                                                                                                                                            13. Economic power shifts
                                                                                6




                   Predetermined
                     Elements
    Low




                     or GIVENS

                   Low                           Degree of Uncertainty                                                           High


                                             Issues Important                       Issues Important
                                             in the Short Term                      in the Long Term

                                                                                         Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 10




                                                                                                                                                                          5
                   Global Issue Map
                   Energy Market Evolution
    High


                                                                                                                    Critical           1. Growth in demand for
                                       1                                                                    8                             energy
                                                                                                                  Uncertainties
                                   2                                                                                                   2. Growth in demand for oil
                                           3                    4             10
                                                  6        7                                                                           3. Growth in demand for
                                       5                                                                                                  natural gas
                                                                                                                                       4. Level of oil reserves
                                                           9
                                                                                                                                       5. Geographic
                                                                                                                                          concentration of oil
Degree of Impact




                                                                                                                                          reserves
                                                                11
                                                                                                                                       6. Oil production volumes
                                                               12                                                                      7. Natural gas production
                                                                                                                                          volumes
                                                                                                                                       8. Level and variability of
                                                                                                                                          oil prices
                                                                                                                                       9. OPEC influence in
                                                                                                                                          production and price
                                                                                                                                          levels
                                                                                                                                       10. Plateaus or declines in
                                                                                                                                           world oil production
                                                                                                                                       11. Energy matrix
                                                                                                                                           diversification towards
                                                                                                                                           hydro, solar and wind
                                                                                                                                           power
                                                                                                                                       12. Expansion of nuclear
                   Predetermined
    Low




                                                                                                                                           power
                     Elements
                   Low                         Degree of Uncertainty                                                         High


                                       Issues Important                            Issues Important
                                       in the Short Term                           in the Long Term

                                                                                       Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 11




                   Global and Regional Issue Maps
                   Technology developments
    High




                                                                                                                    Critical           1. Advancement in EOR
                                                                                                                                          technologies
                                                                                                                  Uncertainties
                                                  2                                                                                    2. Ultra deep water drilling
                                                      1
                                                                                                                                       3. Carbon Capture &
                                                                                                                                          Storage (CC&S)
                                                                                                                                       4. Next generation biofuels
                                                                                                                                       5. Development of Smart
                                                                     6                      3                                             Grids
                                                      10
Degree of Impact




                                                                     4        5 7                                                      6. Electrification of
                                                               11                                                                         transportation
                                                                         12     9
                                                                                                                                       7. Advanced energy
                                                                                                                                          storage
                                                                                                                                       8. Commercial use of
                                                                                   8
                                                                                                                                          Photovolataic and CSP
                                                                                                                                          technologies
                                                                                                                                       9. Development of other
                                                                                                                                          alternative energy
                                                                                                                                          sources
                                                                                                                                       10. Step change in energy
                                                                                                                                           efficiency
                                                                                                                                       11. Step change in
                                                                                                                                           operational efficiency
                                                                                                                                       12. Influence of LA
                                                                                                                                           technologies on RoW
                   Predetermined                                                                                                           (e.g., deep drilling,
    Low




                     Elements                                                                                                              biofuels)

                   Low                         Degree of Uncertainty                                                         High


                                       Issues Important                            Issues Important
                                       in the Short Term                           in the Long Term

                                                                                       Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 12




                                                                                                                                                                      6
                   Regional Issue Map
                   Political, Social and Economic Issues
    High


                                                                                                                            Critical           1. Climate change and local
                                                                                                                                                  air quality
                                                                                                                          Uncertainties
                                                                                            14                                                 2. Regional attitudes
                                                               16       13 12                                                                     towards sustainability
                                                                                                                                               3. Regional population
                                                                                                         9                                        growth
                                                                    1
                                                           8                         2                                                         4. Urbanization
                                                               11       14                                                                     5. Social unrest
                                                                                                    3
                                                                                 5
Degree of Impact




                                                                                                                                               6. Pandemics
                                                                                               7
                                                                              10                                                               7. War & terrorism
                                                                                                                                               8. Real GDP growth
                                                                                                                                               9. Region-grown
                                                                                                                                                  economic instability
                                   4
                                                                                                                                               10. Regional trade blocks
                                                                                               6                                               11. Growing industrialization
                                                                                                                                               12. Resource nationalism
                                                                                                                                                   and restrictions to FDI
                                                                                                                                               13. Private investment
                                                                                                                                                   climate
                                                                                                                                               14. Lack of transparency
                                                                                                                                                   to FDI
                                                                                                                                               15. Public-private
                                                                                                                                                   partnerships in industry
                   Predetermined                                                                                                               16. Restrictions to
    Low




                     Elements                                                                                                                      environmental licensing

                   Low                      Degree of Uncertainty                                                                    High


                                       Issues Important                                  Issues Important
                                       in the Short Term                                 in the Long Term

                                                                                               Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 13




                   Regional Issue Map
                   Energy Market Evolution
    High




                                                                                                                            Critical          1. Growth in demand for
                                            1                                                                             Uncertainties          energy
                                        2                               4        5                                                            2. Growth in demand for oil
                                                3                                                                                             3. Growth in demand for
                                                                        6            7    12
                                                                                                                                                 natural gas
                                                                             8                                                                4. Level of oil reserves
                                                                                                    11
                                                                                                                                              5. Level of natural gas
                                                                                                                                                 reserves
Degree of Impact




                                                                                 9                                                            6. Oil production volumes
                                                      10
                                                                         13                                                                   7. Natural gas production
                                                                                                                                                 volumes
                                                                                                                                              8. Energy price subsidies
                                                                                                                                              9. Region influence in
                                                                                                                                                 production and price
                                                                                                                                                 levels
                                                                                                                                              10. Region oil & gas exports
                                                                                                                                              11. Regional gas &
                                                                                                                                                  electricity market
                                                                                                                                                  integration
                                                                                                                                              12. Government policies
                                                                                                                                                  towards security of
                                                                                                                                                  energy supply
                                                                                                                                              13. Growth in renewable
                   Predetermined                                                                                                                  energies market,
    Low




                                                                                                                                                  particularly biofuels
                     Elements
                   Low                      Degree of Uncertainty                                                                    High


                                       Issues Important                                  Issues Important
                                       in the Short Term                                 in the Long Term

                                                                                               Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 14




                                                                                                                                                                               7
Scenario building




                                                                                                        Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 15




Scenario building process
List of key drivers based
on STEEP framework


    Driver 1


    Driver 2
                                           Issue prioritization and
    Driver 3                               identification of critical
                                           uncertainties
    Driver n
                                                                          Critical uncertainties
                                   High
                                                       XY
                                                                            CU1
                                                                  CU2
                               of impact




                                                                  CU4
                                Degree




                                             YY                                      CU3
                            Degree of
                              Impact                                                               Focal questions, alternative
                                                             ZZ                                    scenarios end-states
                                                                    RS


                                                  XZ                           RT
                                                             ST
                                    Low
                                           Low                                      High
                                                       Degree of Uncertainty                          End state D   End state A
                                                  Degree of Uncertainty


                                                                                                                                           Scenario dynamics

                                                                                                      End state C   End state B




                                                                                                        Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 16




                                                                                                                                                                                  8
Global Issues Prioritization
 The results below, provide a view of the issue prioritization exercise conducted
 by one of the breakout groups during the second workshop.
    High                    International           Environmental        Development of Smart Grids
                            agreements to           issues incl. climate               Growth in demand for oil            Growth in real GDP
                            limit GHG               change Growth in
                            emissions
                                                                demand for                                      Geopolitical changes in the economic power axis
                                Advanced energy storage         energy                                                                       Periods of extreme changes in
                                                                       Step change in           Natural gas
                                devices (incl. Batteries)                                       production                                   the general level of prices
                                                                       energy efficiency                                                     Level & variability of oil prices
                                World                                  technologies             volume
                                                                                                               Advancement in
                                population
                                                 Prospects for greater                                         enhanced oil           Periods of extreme economic &
                                growth
                                                 economic protectionism Oil production volumes                 recovery               financial instability
                                Energy matrix diversification                     Electrification of vehicle fleets
        Degree of impact




                                towards hydro, solar & wind power               Growth in demand for natural gas
                                                 Level of oil reserves            Socioeconomic issues                     Trade blocs influence regional economies
                           War, terrorism &
                                                          Plateaus/declines       (esp. fight against world
                           other political
                                                          in world oil            famine)                 Development of carbon sequestration technology
                           violence
                                                          production
                               Step change in                                                                   OPEC influence on production & price levels
                                                      Population flow from
                               resource                                                             Next generation biofuels
                                                      rural to urban living
                               management &                                      Commercial use of
                               operation efficiency Ultra deep water             solar voltaic &
                                 Expansion of       drilling                     concentrated solar
                                 nuclear            technologies                 power                                                            Health issues including
                                                                                                                                                  risks of pandemics
                              Influence that Latin                                                                                       Development of other
                              American                                                                                                   renewable energy source
                              technologies will have
                              on energy markets          Geographic
                                                         concentration of oil
                                                         reserves




     Low
                           Low                                                       Degree of uncertainty                                                                       High
 Global Political, Social and Economic Issues
 Global Energy Market Evolution
                                                                                                               Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 17
 Global and Regional Technology Developments




Regional Issues Prioritization
 The results below, provide a view of the issue prioritization exercise conducted
 by one of the breakout groups during the last workshop.
    High                       Growth in energy
                               demand
                                                           Level of oil reserves
                                                                     Growth in natural gas demand         Regional gas & electricity
                                                                                                                                                         Government policies
                                                                                                                                                         towards security of energy
                              Environmental issues                                                        market integration Social unrest               supply
                              incl. climate, local air                 Public-private partnerships in industry
                              quality                          Levels of natural gas reserves                                         Further expansion of populism, resource
                                                     Growth in real GDP                     Regional           Natural gas            nationalism & greater access restrictions
                           Growth in                Lack of transparency           population growth           production volumes     on foreign companies
                           renewable energy         & legal guarantees to
                           markets, esp.                                           Increasing restrictions to environmental licensing
                                                    foreign investment
                           biofuels
                                                    Energy price              Regional attitudes towards conservation & sustainability
                            Growth in oil
                                                                                                                                          Government policies &
        Degree of impact




                                                   Oil production volume
                            demand                                              Trade blocs influence regional economies
                                                                                                                                          regulations that foster
                                                    Growing level of industrialization                                                    private investment

                                                           Region-grown periods of extreme
                                                           economic & financial instability
                                                           Regional influence in world oil & natural
                           Regional oil & natural          gas production & price levels
                           gas exports to other
                                                           Population flow from rural to urban living
                           world markets




                                                                                                                                                                  Health issues incl.
                                       War, guerrilla movements, terrorism &                                                                                      risk of pandemics
                                       other political violence




     Low
                           Low                                                       Degree of uncertainty                                                                       High

 Regional Political, Social and Economic Issues
 Regional Energy Market Evolution                                                                              Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 18




                                                                                                                                                                                         9
    Issue Prioritization
    Critical uncertainties
      The results below, provide a consolidated view of the critical uncertainties
      identified by one of the breakout groups during last workshop.
        Geopolitical changes in the economic power axis                                 Further expansion of populism, resource nationalism and greater
                                                                                        access restrictions on foreign companies
        Growth in demand for oil                                                        Government policies and regulations that foster private investment


        Growth in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)                                     Government policies towards security of energy supply


        Level and variability of oil prices                                             Natural gas production volume


        Natural gas production volume                                                   Regional gas and electricity market integration


        Periods of extreme changes in the general level of prices                       Social unrest (indigenous movements, union movements,
                                                                                        unemployment levels, demands for greater inclusion)
        Periods of extreme economic and financial instability


        Trade blocs influence regional economies


        Advancement in enhanced oil recovery (EOR)



           Global Political, Social and Economic Issues
           Global Energy Market Evolution
           Global and Regional Technology Developments
           Regional Political, Social and Economic Issues
           Regional Energy Market Evolution
                                                                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 19




    Focal Questions and Scenario Matrix
                                  •Real GDP growth
                     •Trade blocks influence regional economies
                 •Government policy aimed at securing energy supply
           •Government policy and regulations regarding private investment
                   •Regional gas and electricity market integration
      •Expansion of populism, nationalism and restrictions on foreign companies
        •Social movements, people unemployed who demand greater inclusion
                       •Periods of extreme economic instability
                        •Geopolitics changes access to energy
                                                                                                                               Ample
                                                                                                                                                                   Government
                                                                                                                                                   Regional gas      policies
Dysfunctional        Global energy governance                       Integrative          Period of
                                                                                                          Advance-                                 & electricity     towards
                                                                                          extreme                                                     market        security of
                                                                                                            ment in
                                                                                        economic &                                                  integration       energy
                                                                                                         enhanced oil
                                                                                          financial                                                                   supply
                                                                                                           recovery
                                                                                         instability

                                                                                                   Market is flooded                             Energy for               Government

                                                                                                                                                 everyone 3
                                                                                                                                 Resources




                                                                                                                                                                            policies &
                                                                                                       with oil                                                            regulation
                                                                                                                                                                           that foster
                                                                                                                                             everywhere at the               private
                                                                                                             1                               right quantity and           investments

                                                                                                                                               the right price

                              •Growth in demand for oil               Dysfunctional                    Global Energy                          Governance                      Integrative
                          •Natural gas production volumes
                               •Oil production volumes
                          •Level and variability of oil prices
                                 •Advances in EOR
              •Period of extreme changes in the general level of prices                                2                                         Null
                                                                              Further expansion
                                                                                  of populism,             Social unrest
                                                                                                                                               Quadrant
                                                                                    resource               (indigenous
Constrained                      Resources                           Ample      nationalism and
                                                                                greater access
                                                                                                        movements, union
                                                                                                           movements,
                                                                                 restrictions on          unemployment
                                                                              foreign companies        levels, demands for
                                                                                                        greater inclusion)


                                                                                                                             Constrained

                                                                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 20




                                                                                                                                                                                            10
Scenario Matrix End States
Quadrant 3

 The results below, provide a end state description of scenario quadrant 3

 Global regulatory     •   Articulation, more regulations / consensus driven
 environment           •   Strengthening of institutions
                       •   Global coordination, regulatory convergence
                       •   Energy for everyone everywhere
 Security              • Less tensions among countries regarding energy security
                       • Synergy in the use of energy resources
                       • Social security is enhanced by the opportunities created by available energy
 Products, labor and   •   Expansion of world trade
 capital markets       •   Agreements on standardization of products and services
                       •   More mobility of human resources
                       •   Less financial resources for investments
 Technology and        •   Innovation incentives
 innovation            •   Agreements on patents, intellectual property
                       •   Increased technology transfer
                       •   Increased cooperation for technological development
 Climate change        •   Greater articulation and regulation in the energy sector
 policies              •   Greater agreement facilitation
                       •   Higher investment in clean and renewable technologies
                       •   Use of alternative energies
 Economic growth       •   Sustainable growth with lower variability
                       •   Real growth and high rates
                       •   Reduced inequalities
                       •   More opportunities for economic and social development




                                                                      Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 21




Scenario affirmation




                                                                      Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 22




                                                                                                                                                11
Global Scenarios to 2030
What are scenarios

 Scenarios are alternative, plausible, internally consistent and divergent views of
  the future



                                                                                                             Scenario A




                                                                                                Divergent

                                                                   Internally
                                                                   consistent


                                                                                                             Scenario B


        Today                                                                                          Future

Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010)   Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 23




Global Scenarios to 2030
Predetermined elements

 Predetermined elements within the context of scenarios development are those
  relatively stable and predictable. Without considering wildcards, seven
  predetermined elements or “GIVENS” were identified:
     – Demographics
     – Hydrocarbon resources
     – Renewable energy potential
     – Low clock speed of renewable energy technologies
     – Non-linear relationship between energy demand and economic growth
     – Dual speed economy
     – Public sector fiscal stress




                                                              Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 24




                                                                                                                                        12
Global Scenarios to 2030
GIVENS – Demographics – 1/3

 The world population will increase from 6.8 billion today to approximately 8.2
  billion by 2030.                                                                                                                                            Female
                                                                                                                                                              Male
                                                                                                                                     World 2010
                                                                                                               Age
                                                                                                               100+
           10,000

                     5,000                                                                                    75-79
                                  World
                                                                                                              50-54
                                                   Asia
                     2,000
                                                                         Africa
                                                                                                              25-29
                     1,000                                                             Latin America
 People, Thousands




                                  Europe
                                                                                                                 0-4

                                                                                                                       -400   -200          0           200     400
                                                                                                                                     People, Millions
                                                                                  Northern America
                                                                                                                                     World 2030
                      200                                                                                      Age
                                                                                                               100+
                      100
                                                                                                              75-79
                       50
                                              Oceania                                                         50-54

                       20
                                                                                                              25-29

                       10
                                                                                                                 0-4
                        1950    1960   1970    1980     1990   2000   2010   2020    2030   2040     2050
                                                                                                                       -400   -200          0           200     400
                                                                                                                                     People, Millions

Source: United Nations Population Division                                              Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 25




Global Scenarios to 2030
GIVENS – Renewable energy potential

 In the long run, the potential for renewables is sufficient to meet global energy
  needs. However, the renewables energy potential is not equally distributed
  across geographic regions.

                             GJ per capita
                                 1000

                                   800

                                   600

                                   400                                                                                                     Hydro
                                                                                                                                           Wind
                Demand 200                                                                                                                  Solar
                Range                                                                                                                       Geothermal
                                                                                                                                            Biomass
                         0



Source: Shell                                                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 26




                                                                                                                                                                       13
      Global Scenarios to 2030
      GIVENS – Dual speed economy

       The world economy is not decoupling, but is growing at different speeds.
        Historically, economic growth was driven by OECD countries. Since the early to
        mid 1990s, large emerging markets such as the BRICs have been growing
        much faster.
      China GDP growth                        India GDP growth                       LAC GDP growth                           Eurozone GDP growth                    US GDP growth



10%



  8                                     8%


  6                                      6                                     6%



  4                                      4                                      4                                                                              4%

                                                                                                                                                                3

  2                                      2                                      2                                        2%                                     2

                                                                                                                          1                                     1

  0                                      0                                     0                                          0                                     0
      ‟03 ‟04 ‟05 ‟06 ‟07 „08 „09 „10        ‟03 ‟04 ‟05 ‟06 ‟07 „08 „09 „10        ‟03 ‟04 ‟05 ‟06 ‟07 ‟08        „10         ‟03 ‟04 ‟05 ‟06 ‟07 ‟08   „10        ‟03 ‟04 ‟05 ‟06 ‟07 ‟08   „10




      Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)                                                                Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 27




      Global Scenarios to 2030
      The focal questions and scenario matrix

       Three alternative global scenarios have been developed


                                                                                               Ample



                                                                                                                  Transformative
                                                           Evolutionary




                                        Antagonistic                                 Global                    Environment                       Collaborative
                                                                                                   Resources




                                                                 Protectionist


                                                                                          Constrained


                                                                                                               Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 28




                                                                                                                                                                                                    14
Global Scenarios to 2030
Two global scenarios – Protectionist and Transformative

               Protectionist Scenario                               Transformative Scenario




    • A world that is largely unable to meet the     • This scenario is driven by a change in vision
      challenges of the 21st century given an          where problems are addressed through deep
      antogonistic global environment, resulting in    and long-lasting cooperative agreements.
      constrained resources.                         • A world in which stakeholders work in
    • This is a „dog-eat-dog‟ world with national      partnership to create effective ways to reconcile
      interests overriding international concerns.     the tension between local interests and global
    • The notion of a „green economy‟ stagnates as     concerns.
      little progress is seen towards achieving this • The „green economy‟ gains significant
      goal in this „Protectionist‟ environment.        momentum, particularly in the important
                                                       emerging markets of Asia and Latin America.

                                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 29




Global Scenarios to 2030
Drivers of the Protectionist and Transformative scenarios – 1/2

   Driver         Evolutionary Scenario             Protectionist Scenario                 Transformative Scenario

Regulatory      • Regulatory competition           • Ineffective regulatory            • Collaborative and pragmatic
context           between national and               environment driven by               regulatory environment
                  global regulators and              „command & control‟                 stimulates sustainable
                  independent market               • Antagonism leads to                 business growth
                  watchdogs constrains               protectionism and                 • Global imbalances are
                  international cooperation to       bilateral agreements                addressed
                  support market access
Demographics    • Immigration is restricted to     • Protectionism and                 • Student and labor mobility is
                  labour market needs                concerns over                       encouraged
                  (highly qualified migrants or      employment severely               • Emerging markets benefit
                  specific segments)                 limit people mobility               from increased labor mobility
                • Developing countries risk                                              and knowledge sharing
                  youth and brain drain
Economy         • Globalisation continues but      • Antagonistic environment          • Globalization resumes after
                  trade suffers from                 stalls globalization                the imbalances have been
                  jurisdictional discontinuities   • Restricted knowledge                addressed
                • Productivity growth is not         sharing results in low            • Strong emphasis on
                  maximised as security              productivity growth                 efficiency and productivity
                  concerns limit knowledge         • Access to capital is              • Capital flows globally with
                  sharing and innovation             restricted hindering                few restrictions
                • Global pool of savings             economic growth
                  doesn‟t flow optimally
                  because of lack of trust
                                                           Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 30




                                                                                                                                     15
Global Scenarios to 2030
Drivers of the Protectionist and Transformative scenario – 1/2

    Driver          Evolutionary Scenario           Protectionist Scenario                 Transformative Scenario

Innovation       • National governments fund       • National governments                 • Cross-border public private
                   fundamental research driven       fund fundamental                       partnerships (PPPs)
                   by security issues                research driven by                     stimulate funding for
                 • Limited technology transfer       security issues                        fundamental R&D
                   and duplication of efforts      • Limited technology                   • China, Brazil and India
                   hinders innovation                transfer and duplication of            gradually emerge as the
                                                     efforts hinders innovation             „new innovators‟
                                                                                          • Industry R&D is driven by
                                                                                            „co-opetition‟
Climate          • Lack of a coherent approach     • Lack of global climate               • An integrative
change             to climate change emerges         policies leads to climate              „Copenhagen 2‟ climate
policies           as a source of international      stress.                                change policy is enacted
                   tension and a deterrent to      • Emerging markets focus                 and provides the
                   further trade liberalisation      primarily on growth.                   foundations for sustainable
                   and economic integration        • Focus on national climate              global trade and economic
                                                     policies by OECD                       development
                                                     countries favors local and
                                                     short-term aspects
Product, labor   • Security provisions functions   • Trade barriers favor                 • Strong and increasingly
and capital        as invisible trade barriers       regional trade and hinder              „sustainable‟ global trade
markets            with non-compliant countries      global trade                         • Capital and labor flows
                   limiting the potential of       • Capital and labor flows                globally with few
                   international trade               severely restricted                    restrictions
                                                          Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 31




Global Scenarios to 2030
Scenario dynamics – Protectionist scenario


   Time period                                 Basic Scenario dynamics

  Early years         In this minimally cooperative antagonistic global environment,
  to 2015             regionalization increases. BRINK country resources enter the energy
                      market in force. Fortresses emerge in a world of economic volatility and
                      limited technology sharing. Some oil giants fail.


  Middle years, There are big (economic) winners (e.g., China, Brazil) and big losers
  2016-2026     (e.g., OPEC). Rising protectionism puts the brakes on international
                      collaboration. Friendly nations share technology, while outsiders are cut
                      off from innovation. Energy is constrained and industrial inefficiency
                      grows. Strong immigration controls favor the best of the labor pool.
                      Resource wars are on the horizon.


  End years,          Countries and the international community in general are unable to
  2027-2030           meet many challenges (e.g., climate change, clean energy). This world
                      is characterized by a great deal of unrealized potential and very clear
                      winners and losers.



                                                          Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 32




                                                                                                                                    16
Global Scenarios to 2030
Scenario dynamics – Transformative scenario


 Time period                              Basic Scenario dynamics
 Early years      The resolution of trade imbalances (China-US) and security concerns
 to 2015          (particularly, a nuclear Iran) are the key issues in this period. Economic
                  recovery is proceeding in an increasingly collaborative global
                  environment. The notion of sustainable energy becomes a real part of
                  the energy policies in both more established and emerging economies.
                  There is a renewed commitment to the international system.

 Middle           Countries try to seriously tackle security and economic challenges in
 years, 2016-     tandem, first bilaterally then using international mechanisms. Economic
 2026             growth is more resilient. Co-opetition characterizes technology
                  development for the most part. Important strides are made in terms of
                  addressing externalities like climate change.

 End years,       Changes in energy use and technology development are paying off. The
 2027-2030        foundation is laid for a global energy governance structure. This is a
                  world in which stakeholders genuinely and broadly (i.e., at local,
                  national, regional, and global levels) engage with each other to solve
                  global problems. Affordable, clean energy for many is becoming the rule
                  rather than the exception.


                                                               Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 33




Global Scenarios to 2030
The focal questions and scenario matrix

 The Transformative scenario is our best hope for a sustainable global
  environment and to reduce the impact of climate change. It will require
  concerted global action immediately. Latin America & the Caribbean could play
  a shaping role in moving us all towards that goal.
                                                 Ample



                                                                  Transformative
                           Evolutionary




                Antagonistic              Global               Environment                  Collaborative
                                                   Resources




                               Protectionist


                                               Constrained
                                                               Shaping a New Energy Agenda in Latin American & the Caribbean | Page 34




                                                                                                                                         17
                                      Strategic Advisors in Global Energy

PFC Energy consultants are present in
                                                    Main regional offices:
the following locations:

                                                    Asia                              Middle East
     Beijing                                       PFC Energy, Kuala Lumpur          PFC Energy, Bahrain
                                                    Level 27, UBN Tower #21           Bahrain Financial Harbor (BFH)
     Brussels                                      10 Jalan P. Ramlee                East Tower
                                                    50250 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia      5th Floor
     Delhi                                         Tel (60 3) 2172-3400              P.O. Box 11118
                                                    Fax (60 3) 2072-3599              Manama- Bahrain
     Ho Chi Minh City                                                                Tel (973) 7705 8880
                                                    PFC Energy, China
     Houston                                       Kerry Center N-1137               North America
                                                    1 Guanghua Road                   PFC Energy, Washington D.C.
     Kuala Lumpur                                  Chaoyang District                 1300 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.
                                                    Beijing 100020, China             Suite 800
     Lausanne                                      Tel (86 10) 6599-7937             Washington, DC 20036, USA
                                                    Fax (86 10) 6530-5093             Tel (1 202) 872-1199
     London                                                                          Fax (1 202) 872-1219
                                                    Europe
     Manama                                        PFC Energy, France                PFC Energy, Houston
                                                    19 rue du Général Foy             4545 Post Oak Place, Suite 312
     Mumbai                                        75008 Paris, France               Houston, Texas 77027-3110, USA
                                                    Tel (33 1) 4770-2900              Tel (1 713) 622-4447
     New York                                      Fax (33 1) 4770-5905              Fax (1 713) 622-4448


     Paris                                         PFC Energy International,
                                                    Lausanne
     Vancouver                                     19, Boulevard de la Forêt
                                                    1009 Pully, Switzerland
     Washington, DC                                Tel (41 21) 721-1440
                                                    Fax: (41 21) 721-1444
                                                                                   www.pfcenergy.com | info@pfcenergy.com
Main regional offices are shown in blue.




                                                                                                                            18