ECS waiver-reduction scenarios by jay16344

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									BASED ON PROJECTED FY2006 ECS ENROLLMENT, WITH ECS+AP HELD CONSTANT -- IGNORES GROWTH TRENDS
Cost-model parameters (from Jan 2005 ACFB) shown at the bottom of this sheet -- should be updated to reflect actual FY06 va
Projected marginal expense used for ECS enrollments: 50% of average for campus, 38% for high-school -- may need refineme
PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS ARE CONJECTURAL -- CHANGE THEM TO EXPLORE CONSEQUENCES
                                         Projected         Tution Change in       Marginal Marginal
                          ECS tuition Enrollment revenue state funds Expenses Gain/Loss
Scenario 0 -- actual FY2006 ECS tuition structure (summer 2006 ECS enrollment is conjectural)
    ID ACC-campus                   $0       2,400              $0          $0          $0         $0
     ID High-school                 $0         500              $0          $0          $0         $0
 OOD ACC-campus                    $40       1,600       $64,000            $0          $0    $64,000
  OOD High-school                   $0       2,200              $0          $0          $0         $0
                                             6,700       $64,000            $0          $0    $64,000
Projections for alternate ECS tuition scenario 1 -- 25% of regular tuition for ECS at ACC campuses
    ID ACC-campus                  $40       2,000       $80,000      -$66,456 -$135,000 $148,544
     ID High-school                 $0         800              $0     $49,842     $77,096 -$27,254
 OOD ACC-campus                    $87       1,400 $121,800           -$33,228    -$67,500 $156,072
  OOD High-school                   $0       2,400              $0     $33,228     $51,398 -$18,170
                                             6,600 $201,800           -$16,614    -$74,006 $259,192
Projections for alternate ECS tuition scenario 2 -- 50% of regular tuition for ECS at ACC campuses
    ID ACC-campus                  $80       1,700 $136,000 -$116,298 -$236,250 $255,952
     ID High-school                 $0       1,100              $0     $99,684   $154,193 -$54,509
 OOD ACC-campus                 $174           800 $139,200 -$132,912 -$270,000 $276,288
  OOD High-school                   $0       2,800              $0     $99,684   $154,193 -$54,509
                                             6,400 $275,200           -$49,842 -$197,865 $423,223
Projections for alternate ECS tuition scenario 3 -- scenario 2 plus $82/course at OOD high schools
    ID ACC-campus                  $80       1,700 $136,000 -$116,298 -$236,250 $255,952
     ID High-school                 $0       1,100              $0     $99,684   $154,193 -$54,509
 OOD ACC-campus                 $174           800 $139,200 -$132,912 -$270,000 $276,288
  OOD High-school                  $82       2,400 $196,800            $33,228     $51,398 $178,630
                                             6,000 $472,000 -$116,298 -$300,660 $656,362
Projections for alternate ECS tuition scenario 4 -- full tuition at ACC campuses, $82/course at HS
    ID ACC-campus               $159         1,400 $222,600 -$166,140 -$337,500 $393,960
     ID High-school                $82       1,200       $98,400      $116,298   $179,891     $34,807
 OOD ACC-campus                 $348           600 $208,800 -$166,140 -$337,500 $380,160
  OOD High-school                  $82       2,800 $229,600            $99,684   $154,193 $175,091
                                             6,000 $759,400 -$116,298 -$340,916 $984,018
Projections for alternate ECS tuition scenario 5 -- full tuition ACC campuses, 50% at high schools
    ID ACC-campus               $159         1,400 $222,600 -$166,140 -$337,500 $393,960
     ID High-school                $80       1,200       $96,000      $116,298   $179,891     $32,407
 OOD ACC-campus                 $348         1,100 $382,800           -$83,070 -$168,750 $468,480
  OOD High-school               $174              0             $0 -$365,508 -$565,373 $199,865
                                             3,700 $701,400 -$498,420 -$891,732 $1,094,712
Projections for alternate ECS tuition scenario 6 -- no ECS waivers (only AP at high-school sites)
    ID ACC-campus               $159         2,000 $318,000           -$66,456 -$135,000 $386,544
     ID High-school             $159              0             $0    -$83,070 -$128,494      $45,424
 OOD ACC-campus                 $348         1,100 $382,800           -$83,070 -$168,750 $468,480
  OOD High-school               $348              0             $0 -$365,508 -$565,373 $199,865
                                             3,100 $700,800 -$598,104 -$997,617 $1,100,313

MODEL BELOW UNCHANGED FROM JAN 2005 ECS REPORT -- SHOULD BE UPDATED/REFINED
Facts used as components in cost models (based on 2004 data & 2005 budget, projected to 2006)
ECS enrollment and cost figures at zero ECS tuition
                  860   High-school, no ACC pay
               4,960    High-school, ACC pays teacher
              14,180    Campus-based ECS
              20,000    Total annual ECS
                61%     Out-of-District ECS
                $225    ACC average cost per SCH
                $950    Average adjunct cost per LEH
                 18.3   Average paid-HS-ECS section size
                 29.3   Average ECS-depts campus section size
              $62.01    State reimbursements/SCH (overall)
              $55.38    State reimbursements/SCH (ECS depts)
                $120    Full out-of-district tuition/fees/SCH
Estimates used as components in cost models (based on budget & financial reports)
ACC marginal cost components (% of overall average cost)
            Overall campus ECS       HS-based
               15%           10%             0% Campus facilities
               14%           10%             0% Campus support services
                5%            5%            13% General support services (including ECS office)
                8%            2%             2% Academic departments
               36%           23%      $950/sec Instructor (or zero if no ACC pay) -- set via A41
               78%           50%            38% Total marginal cost
       marginal cost    average cost
             $33.75          $83.25 High-school ECS, no ACC payment to teacher
             $85.66         $135.16 High-school ECS, ACC pays teacher
           $112.50          $162.00 Campus-based ECS
            $175.50          $225.00 Average for all ACC students (all departments)
 T -- IGNORES GROWTH TRENDS
be updated to reflect actual FY06 values
 r high-school -- may need refinement
 ONSEQUENCES




 ted to 2006)
                BASED ON PROJECTED FY2006 VALUES
Conjectures defining an Early College Start elasticity model (can be adjusted)
           10% Basic ECS dropoff due to any tuition charge
           10% Percentage ECS dropoff per 25% of full out-of-district tuition
            5% Percentage of ECS meeting financial-need-waiver criteria
           90% Percentage of financially needy who will file FAF rather than drop enrollment
Model presumes that ECS tuition applies only to out-of-district students with ACC-paid teachers
Implications of ECS elasticity model (% values referenced to zero-tuition level)
Tuition/SCH                 $0          $30           $60          $90           $120
Exempt                    42%          42%           42%           42%            42%
Waiver                     3%            3%            3%           3%             3%
Paying                    55%          44%           39%           33%            28%
HS, "no cost"              4%           4%            4%            4%             4%
HS, ACC-paid              25%          22%           21%          19%            18%
ACC campus                71%          63%           59%          55%            51%
% of reference          100%           89%           84%           79%            73%
ACC financial impact for non-waived, non-exempt out-of-district ECS students
Total revenue          $612,802      $755,811     $893,708         $965,213     $970,325
Mrg expense         $1,133,739       $908,640     $795,904        $683,031      $569,987
Mrg Profit/Loss      -$520,938     -$152,829       $97,804        $282,182      $400,338
Avg expense         $1,681,477 $1,349,247      $1,182,674        $1,015,761     $848,429
Avg Profit/Loss    -$1,068,675      -$593,436    -$288,966         -$50,548     $121,896
ACC financial impact for total ECS program
Total revenue       $1,107,600 $1,247,231        $1,385,128     $1,456,633     $1,461,745
Mrg expense         $2,049,161 $1,819,464        $1,707,696     $1,595,928     $1,484,160
Mrg Profit/Loss      -$941,561      -$572,233     -$322,568      -$139,295       -$22,415
Avg expense         $3,039,161 $2,394,539        $2,108,626     $1,840,881     $1,591,304
Avg Profit/Loss    -$1,931,561 -$1,147,308         -$723,498      -$384,248     -$129,559
Facts used as components in cost models (based on 2004 data & 2005 budget)
ECS enrollment and cost figures at zero ECS tuition
             860 High-school, no ACC pay
          4,960 High-school, ACC pays teacher
         14,180 Campus-based ECS
         20,000 Total annual ECS
           61% Out-of-District ECS
           $225 ACC average cost per SCH
           $950 Average adjunct cost per LEH
            18.3 Average paid-HS-ECS section size
            29.3 Average ECS-depts campus section size
         $62.01 State reimbursements/SCH (overall)
         $55.38 State reimbursements/SCH (ECS depts)
           $120 Full out-of-district tuition/fees/SCH
Estimates used as components in cost models (based on budget & financial reports)
ACC marginal cost components (% of overall average cost)
        Overall campus ECS      HS-based
           15%          10%            0% Campus facilities
           14%          10%            0% Campus support services
            5%           5%           13% General support services (including ECS office)
            8%           2%            2% Academic departments
        36%            23%      $950/sec Instructor (or zero if no ACC pay) -- set via A41
        78%            50%          38% Total marginal cost
marginal cost   average cost
      $33.75         $83.25 High-school ECS, no ACC payment to teacher
      $85.66        $135.16 High-school ECS, ACC pays teacher
    $112.50         $162.00 Campus-based ECS
     $175.50        $225.00 Average for all ACC students (all departments)
                               BASED ON FY2005 VALUES
Conjectures defining an Early College Start elasticity model (can be adjusted)
           10% Basic ECS dropoff due to any tuition charge
            5% Percentage ECS dropoff per 25% of full out-of-district tuition
           20% Percentage of ECS meeting financial-need-waiver criteria
           90% Percentage of financially needy who will file FAF rather than drop enrollment
Model presumes that ECS tuition applies only to out-of-district students with ACC-paid teachers
Implications of ECS elasticity model (% values referenced to zero-tuition level)
Tuition/SCH                 $0          $28           $56          $83           $111
Exempt                    33%          33%           33%           33%            33%
Waiver                    14%          13%           13%           13%            13%
Paying                    53%          45%           42%           40%            37%
HS, "no cost"              4%           4%            4%            4%             4%
HS, ACC-paid              25%          22%           22%          21%            21%
ACC campus                71%          64%           62%          61%            59%
% of reference          100%           91%           89%           86%            83%
ACC financial impact for non-waived, non-exempt out-of-district ECS students
Total revenue          $586,917      $748,860     $940,085       $1,101,901 $1,234,307
Mrg expense        $1,074,017        $914,786     $861,543        $808,261   $754,938
Mrg Profit/Loss      -$487,100     -$165,926       $78,542        $293,639   $479,368
Avg expense         $1,570,639 $1,338,787      $1,261,170        $1,183,477 $1,105,700
Avg Profit/Loss       -$983,722     -$589,927    -$321,085         -$81,576   $128,606
ACC financial impact for total ECS program
Total revenue       $1,107,600 $1,254,036        $1,445,261     $1,607,077    $1,739,483
Mrg expense         $2,026,830 $1,841,119        $1,788,486     $1,735,853    $1,683,220
Mrg Profit/Loss      -$919,230      -$587,083     -$343,224      -$128,776       $56,264
Avg expense         $2,964,030 $2,442,579        $2,303,959     $2,169,387    $2,038,863
Avg Profit/Loss    -$1,856,430 -$1,188,543         -$858,698      -$562,310    -$299,380
Facts used as components in cost models (based on 2004 data & 2005 budget)
ECS enrollment and cost figures at zero ECS tuition
             860 High-school, no ACC pay
          4,960 High-school, ACC pays teacher
         14,180 Campus-based ECS
         20,000 Total annual ECS
           70% Out-of-District ECS
           $213 ACC average cost per SCH
           $900 Average adjunct cost per LEH
            18.3 Average paid-HS-ECS section size
            29.3 Average ECS-depts campus section size
         $62.01 State reimbursements/SCH (overall)
         $55.38 State reimbursements/SCH (ECS depts)
        $111.00 Full out-of-district tuition/fees/SCH
Estimates used as components in cost models (based on budget & financial reports)
ACC marginal cost components (% of overall average cost)
        Overall campus ECS      HS-based
           15%          10%            0% Campus facilities
           14%          10%            0% Campus support services
            5%           5%           20% General support services (including ECS office)
            8%           2%            2% Academic departments
           36%          23%      $900/sec Instructor (or zero if no ACC pay) -- set via A41
           78%          50%           45% Total marginal cost
   marginal cost   average cost
         $46.86         $93.72 High-school ECS, no ACC payment to teacher
         $96.04        $142.90 High-school ECS, ACC pays teacher
       $106.50         $153.36 Campus-based ECS
        $166.14         $213.00 Average for all ACC students (all departments)
                               BASED ON FY2004 VALUES
Conjectures defining an Early College Start elasticity model (can be adjusted)
           10% Basic ECS dropoff due to any tuition charge
            5% Percentage ECS dropoff per 25% of full out-of-district tuition
           20% Percentage of ECS meeting financial-need-waiver criteria
           90% Percentage of financially needy who will file FAF rather than drop enrollment
Model presumes that ECS tuition applies only to out-of-district students with ACC-paid teachers
Implications of ECS elasticity model (% values referenced to zero-tuition level)
Tuition/SCH                 $0          $25           $51          $76           $101
Exempt                    33%          33%           33%           33%            33%
Waiver                    14%          13%           13%           13%            13%
Paying                    53%          45%           42%           40%            37%
HS, "no cost"              4%           4%            4%            4%             4%
HS, ACC-paid              25%          22%           22%          21%            21%
ACC campus                71%          64%           62%          61%            59%
% of reference          100%           91%           89%           86%            83%
ACC financial impact for non-waived, non-exempt out-of-district ECS students
Total revenue          $586,917     $726,339      $897,693       $1,042,287 $1,160,121
Mrg expense            $939,423     $799,660      $752,970        $706,256   $659,517
Mrg Profit/Loss      -$352,506      -$73,321     $144,723         $336,030   $500,603
Avg expense         $1,387,082 $1,181,858      $1,113,197        $1,044,479   $975,697
Avg Profit/Loss       -$800,165    -$455,519     -$215,504          -$2,192   $184,423
ACC financial impact for total ECS program
Total revenue       $1,107,600 $1,231,516        $1,402,869     $1,547,463    $1,665,297
Mrg expense         $1,772,830 $1,609,413        $1,563,098     $1,516,783    $1,470,468
Mrg Profit/Loss      -$665,230      -$377,897     -$160,229        $30,680     $194,829
Avg expense         $2,617,630 $2,156,266        $2,033,636     $1,914,595    $1,799,143
Avg Profit/Loss    -$1,510,030       -$924,751     -$630,766     -$367,132     -$133,846
Facts used as components in cost models (based on 2004 data & 2005 budget)
ECS enrollment and cost figures at zero ECS tuition
             860 High-school, no ACC pay
          4,960 High-school, ACC pays teacher
         14,180 Campus-based ECS
         20,000 Total annual ECS
           70% Out-of-District ECS
           $192 ACC average cost per SCH
           $900 Average adjunct cost per LEH
            18.3 Average paid-HS-ECS section size
            29.3 Average ECS-depts campus section size
         $62.01 State reimbursements/SCH (overall)
         $55.38 State reimbursements/SCH (ECS depts)
        $101.00 Full out-of-district tuition/fees/SCH
Estimates used as components in cost models (based on budget & financial reports)
ACC marginal cost components (% of overall average cost)
        Overall campus ECS      HS-based
           15%          10%            0% Campus facilities
           14%          10%            0% Campus support services
            5%           5%           13% General support services (including ECS office)
            8%           2%            2% Academic departments
           36%          23%      $900/sec Instructor (or zero if no ACC pay) -- set via A41
           78%          50%           41% Total marginal cost
   marginal cost   average cost
         $28.80         $71.04 High-school ECS, no ACC payment to teacher
         $77.98        $120.22 High-school ECS, ACC pays teacher
         $96.00        $138.24 Campus-based ECS
        $149.76         $192.00 Average for all ACC students (all departments)
DATA SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY

Elasticity model -- settings and structure are simply conjectural

ECS enrollment data from Neil Vickers, ACC Business Office
ECS enrollment assumed to stay constant except where tuition charged

FY2006 in-district ECS population assumed to rise to 55% (from 30%) due to all-of-Austin election

ACC average costs computed from FY2005 budget material, excluding CE, ABE, contract training

average adjunct-faculty cost from ECS/Vickers estimates, increased by 5% for FY2006

average paid-HS-ECS section size from Fall 2004 ECS enrollment listing from ECS office via Vickers
average ACC section size for ECS departments from ACC program financial report, averaged by HE

average state reimbursements (ECS and overall) from ACC program financial report

out-of-district tuition/fee total: actual for FY2004 and FY2005, from budget projection for FY2006


Estimates used as components in cost models (based on FY2005 budget materials)

Overall marginal-cost allocation based on $125 million of instructional cost for FY2005
        $19M campus-facility allocation (75% of total facilities)*
        $18M campus support services*
         $6M central support services*
        $10M academic-department expenses (other than direct instruction)*
        $45M instructional faculty*

Adjustments for campus-based ECS marginal-cost allocations
       facilities costs discounted by 1/3 to adjust for lower usage by lecture courses**
       support-services costs discounted by 30% to reflect lower usage by ECS students**
       academic-department costs reduced to reflect actual departments for most ECS*
       instructor costs reduced to reflect actual departments for most ECS*

Adjustments for HS-based ECS marginal-cost allocations
       no direct facilities cost allocated
       no campus support services allocated
       $80K of ECS-office cost added to general variable support costs*
       instructor costs either set at adjunct-faculty costs or omitted

* Numbers used are based on tabulations from ACC reports
** Numbers used are just rough estimates made by HE

								
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