The Future Of Social Networks
Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research
March 4, 2008
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They are online with their social networks
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Theme
Social networks will be like air.
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Components of social networks
Profile Universal identity
Relationships
A single social graph
Activities
Social context for activities
Business model
Social influence defines marketing value
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My multiple identities
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Universal identity
cli@forrester.com me@charleneli.com Mobile number
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Universal identity foundations
• Federation (OpenID approach) • A few major players will serve as major federation focal points
» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
• All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together
» Data Portability Group is the beginning
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Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web
“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:
• Ownership of their own personal information, including: » their own profile data » the list of people they are connected to » the activity stream of content they create; • Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and
• Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington
http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
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My Facebook social graph
Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group
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My real social graph is much more complex
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Let’s end the insanity
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Relationships today are explicit – and a pain
Twitter
LinkedIn
Facebook
Plaxo
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New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents
Millions of regular users
Search & deep content
Ad and content networks
Relationship maps
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Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
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What people do today on social networks
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Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
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But it would be more helpful on Amazon
“See friends’ reviews”
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How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks
Search based on what my friends finds relevant
Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere
See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it
Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ 20
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The under-rated value of networks
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Endorsement value depends on your network
• Your authority on the specific topic • Your network’s interest and authority on the topic • The trust level among your network on the topic
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The future business model for social networks
• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable • Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
• Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT
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Evolution of open platforms
Walled garden services Search freedom
Ubiquitous social networks
1993
1999
2003
2008-9
2013
Data portability
Portal aggregators
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Recommendations
• Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation • Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in • Develop social applications that have meaning • Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks
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Thank you
Charlene Li
+1 650.581.3833
cli@forrester.com www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com
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Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.