The Future Of Social Networks Charlene Li Vice President & Principal Analyst Co-author of Groundswell Forrester Research March 4, 2008 2 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. They are online with their social networks 3 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. 4 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Theme Social networks will be like air. 5 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Components of social networks Profile Universal identity Relationships A single social graph Activities Social context for activities Business model Social influence defines marketing value 6 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. My multiple identities 7 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Universal identity cli@forrester.com me@charleneli.com Mobile number 8 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Universal identity foundations • Federation (OpenID approach) • A few major players will serve as major federation focal points » Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc. • All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together » Data Portability Group is the beginning 9 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web “We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically: • Ownership of their own personal information, including: » their own profile data » the list of people they are connected to » the activity stream of content they create; • Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and • Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.” - Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arrington http://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web 10 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. My Facebook social graph Missing Colleagues Parents Extended family School parents Neighbors Babysitter Walking group 11 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. My real social graph is much more complex 12 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Let’s end the insanity 13 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Relationships today are explicit – and a pain Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Plaxo 14 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents Millions of regular users Search & deep content Ad and content networks Relationship maps 15 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based 16 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. What people do today on social networks 17 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Dave has a nice book review on Facebook 18 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. But it would be more helpful on Amazon “See friends’ reviews” 19 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks Search based on what my friends finds relevant Elevate stories tagged by friends – anywhere See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of it Compare daily portfolio performance to friends’ 20 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. The under-rated value of networks 21 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Endorsement value depends on your network • Your authority on the specific topic • Your network’s interest and authority on the topic • The trust level among your network on the topic 22 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. The future business model for social networks • Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable • Each person will have their own “personal CPM”* • Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals * From Marian Salzman, JWT 23 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Evolution of open platforms Walled garden services Search freedom Ubiquitous social networks 1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013 Data portability Portal aggregators 24 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Recommendations • Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation • Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in • Develop social applications that have meaning • Integrate social networks into existing activities • Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks 25 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Thank you Charlene Li +1 650.581.3833 cli@forrester.com www.forrester.com groundswell.forrester.com 26 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.