Why not stock index futures on schedule blue chip Why not stock index futures on schedule blue chip - Also on the fund frenzy by cyclical stocks Capital Research Center, Fudan University, Director of Finance and Professor Xie Baisan ---- (A) should pay attention to this week&#39;s biggest single-day drop 19 this week, China&#39;s stock market since this year the largest single-day drop, on the 19th opened low, single-day drop of 119 points, trading volume was 160 billion, is a heavy volume down (Shenzhen identical). Up to 0.037%, while 96.3% share for the fall, once again smell the bear market makes the meaning of Xiao Sha. The next day (20) continued to fall, reaching 2941 points, from the current round of &quot;stock index futures market expectations,&quot; the highest point in 3181-2941, a drop of 240 points. A rebound Wednesday, Thursday it turned down 33 points, however, turnover was 155.5 billion, still have volume. Friday was anxious-like, still a weak fall. ?One of the most attention is China Merchants Bank fell 14.1 yuan, has been falling on Sept. 1, 2009 the low, while the Shanghai index was 2650 points, while Wednesday was 2950 points (2,999 points Thursday, Friday for the 2983 points); that the large cap bank stocks tumble further than the depth (similar with other banks). Legend by some funds once promising Huatai Securities, we originally expected to keep up with Everbright Securities to 27 dollars, actually fell to 19.3 yuan, breaking the issue price of 20 yuan, secretaries to directorate to answer when people were asked to justify it, &quot;is 20 yuan Value for money &quot;has become a great irony; Everbright Securities has also dropped to around 22.8 yuan. (B) the reasons for the current round down First, the drag on the U.S. stock market Goldman Sachs Securities and Exchange Commission may be fixed on a thorough investigation of the case of fraud, resulting in 16 this month, the U.S. stock market fell sharply. Many agencies and China is the only U.S. stock market&#39;s lead, then opened and ran. Second, real estate, a portfolio of more stringent regulation under another The most direct cause of the stock market down central control or because the real estate market has a combination of a heavy punch: first suite down payment is 30%; two suites down payment ratio of 50%; lending rate for the normal lending rate of 1.1 times; s Three suites are not loans. The second non-local residents, three are not loans and so on. This reduced the practice of real estate credit transactions, and the West in the stock market soared, reduction of the proportion of same pad Tou transactions, the impact on the real estate market is definitely yes, the psychological pressure of particularly great. The real estate trend is closely related to another on the bank performance, bank loans, most of the loans to real estate. This makes the weight more than 50% of the banking, real estate sector both fell. (Real estate how much control the new political role, remains to be seen.) Third, after the introduction of stock index futures, it is expected to fall rose On April 16 after the introduction of stock index futures, people expected the large cap will be significantly activated not happened, thinking that a high level of retail funds, large funds have been hidden in the blue chip in a few months now has gradually become disappointed by the hope to disappointment, so desperate in the &quot;Jianguang Si&quot; by dumping shares. In addition, short index futures a few days ago was actually greater than the power to do more. 19, the secondary market, both stock index and stock index futures market plummeted, gives the impression of deep. Why not stock index futures market as people had led blue chips higher, as expected. 1994-1995 a bond futures market, bonds immediately from the situation no one is interested to become hot, it is also fresh in my memory. But now, but the large cap completely free movement, also Powei down. Mainly due to: ¢Ù involved in stock index futures were only a million people, is 130 million ten-thousandth of shareholders. Although the &quot;T +0&quot; large volume, but most of the day and out of; overall scale is still small, can not shake the large capitalization stocks. Large cap needs too much money, an Industrial and Commercial Bank of China the number of shares equal to 10,000 times more &quot;Hanwang technology stocks.&quot; Becoming tight in the money (nearly 90 billion is the central ticket money) of a situation, how dynamic speculation. ¢Ú Change the key is the stock market performance, stock index futures is the thermometer, is the mirror. Real estate banking stocks affected the impact of regulation, it is supposed to be down. Frustration on the stock index futures entity. ¢Û Hedging is also a large number of implementation difficulties. Look at the contracts, if buying a similar index of 300 stocks (on 180 and Shenzhen 100); short selling stock index futures after the two, with 6-7% of the arbitrage space. This arbitrage than 7-8% of corporate bonds to buy the. And buying real stocks, throw the contract is to spend a lot of money; spend a lot of money to buy real stocks; throwing money stock index futures. If both long and short game intense, short selling can be penetrated, but also margin. Than buying bonds, shares hit a small income, so few people actually do. In addition, 98% are speculative gain, no on the open, reverse participate; positions and small (dispersed very far); no one will stock index futures for their own three to five hands; to mobilize funds to buy a few large stood on a firm offer. ¢Ü stock index futures also diverted a large number of short-term customer financing Stock Index Futures As a result of &quot;T +0&quot;, flexible and convenient, Kuaijinkuaichu, very irritating. Volume gradually enlarge; the next day to reach 122.1 billion yuan, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index more than 118.8 billion yuan traded stock. In fact, the original speculation that some large cap and small plates, the GEM has been sucked away a lot of hot money; drag on Small Business, also dropped a GEM. This index futures, now the real has become a Kongfangliliang. When will normal, but also look for some time. (C) Note that the Fund greatly reduced blue-chip trend I see the Fund a quarterly disclosure of the circumstances, very great importance, are summarized as follows: First, in the first quarter loss of 88.4 billion yuan fund Loss of 66.5 billion yuan equity funds, hybrid funds loss of 23.4 billion yuan. Only the bond, currency type base Jin Xiaoying. The QDII overseas areas have a loss of 362 million yuan. Small Cap Fund, which is much better than large cap funds. One of the best is the Harvest theme and China Select Fund. GF 500 2 500 funds and small cap funds the South is also good. 2, greatly reduced the Fund&#39;s shares as follows: Bank of Beijing, Industrial Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications, China Merchants Bank, has been a lot of fund holdings. Third, the fund completely throw away the stock clearance are: Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel, TISCO stainless steel, Wuhan, China Shenhua, Luan ring to the National Yang new energy, Pingdingshan shares, Shenhuo shares, coal and other Northwest. This shows the Fund&#39;s thinking has changed from &quot;undervalued&quot; and &quot;Value depression&quot; get out of large cap, into the pharmaceutical, consumer goods industry and the country&#39;s power sector policy support, information industry stocks up. Note: So far, stock index futures and stock size appears not to switch, Small Business, the GEM because of its small cap, high net worth, high-delivery transfer (50%), still by people of all ages. SME board, the GEM has also decreased recently, but there are hot spots occur, for example: Hanwang technology, clean water source innovation high, such as the blossoming flowers are blooming and opening. ?