Why not stock index futures on schedule blue chip

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					Why not stock index futures on schedule blue chip
Why not stock index futures on schedule blue chip
       - Also on the fund frenzy by cyclical stocks
            Capital Research Center, Fudan University, Director
of Finance and Professor Xie Baisan ----
(A) should pay attention to this week's biggest single-day
19 this week, China's stock market since this year the largest
single-day drop, on the 19th opened low, single-day drop of 119
points, trading volume was 160 billion, is a heavy volume down
(Shenzhen identical). Up to 0.037%, while 96.3% share for the fall,
once again smell the bear market makes the meaning of Xiao Sha. The
next day (20) continued to fall, reaching 2941 points, from the
current round of "stock index futures market
expectations," the highest point in 3181-2941, a drop of 240
points. A rebound Wednesday, Thursday it turned down 33 points,
however, turnover was 155.5 billion, still have volume. Friday was
anxious-like, still a weak fall.
  ?One of the most attention is China Merchants Bank fell 14.1 yuan,
has been falling on Sept. 1, 2009 the low, while the Shanghai index
was 2650 points, while Wednesday was 2950 points (2,999 points
Thursday, Friday for the 2983 points); that the large cap bank stocks
tumble further than the depth (similar with other banks). Legend by
some funds once promising Huatai Securities, we originally expected to
keep up with Everbright Securities to 27 dollars, actually fell to
19.3 yuan, breaking the issue price of 20 yuan, secretaries to
directorate to answer when people were asked to justify it,
"is 20 yuan Value for money "has become a great
irony; Everbright Securities has also dropped to around 22.8 yuan.
(B) the reasons for the current round down
First, the drag on the U.S. stock market
Goldman Sachs Securities and Exchange Commission may be fixed on a
thorough investigation of the case of fraud, resulting in 16 this
month, the U.S. stock market fell sharply. Many agencies and China is
the only U.S. stock market's lead, then opened and ran.
Second, real estate, a portfolio of more stringent regulation under
The most direct cause of the stock market down central control or
because the real estate market has a combination of a heavy punch:
first suite down payment is 30%; two suites down payment ratio of 50%;
lending rate for the normal lending rate of 1.1 times; s Three suites
are not loans. The second non-local residents, three are not loans and
so on. This reduced the practice of real estate credit transactions,
and the West in the stock market soared, reduction of the proportion
of same pad Tou transactions, the impact on the real estate market is
definitely yes, the psychological pressure of particularly great.
The real estate trend is closely related to another on the bank
performance, bank loans, most of the loans to real estate. This makes
the weight more than 50% of the banking, real estate sector both fell.
(Real estate how much control the new political role, remains to be
Third, after the introduction of stock index futures, it is expected
to fall rose
  On April 16 after the introduction of stock index futures, people
expected the large cap will be significantly activated not happened,
thinking that a high level of retail funds, large funds have been
hidden in the blue chip in a few months now has gradually become
disappointed by the hope to disappointment, so desperate in the
"Jianguang Si" by dumping shares. In addition, short
index futures a few days ago was actually greater than the power to do
more. 19, the secondary market, both stock index and stock index
futures market plummeted, gives the impression of deep.
  Why not stock index futures market as people had led blue chips
higher, as expected. 1994-1995 a bond futures market, bonds
immediately from the situation no one is interested to become hot, it
is also fresh in my memory. But now, but the large cap completely free
movement, also Powei down. Mainly due to:
¢Ù involved in stock index futures were only a million people, is 130
million ten-thousandth of shareholders. Although the "T
+0" large volume, but most of the day and out of; overall
scale is still small, can not shake the large capitalization stocks.
Large cap needs too much money, an Industrial and Commercial Bank of
China the number of shares equal to 10,000 times more
"Hanwang technology stocks." Becoming tight in the
money (nearly 90 billion is the central ticket money) of a situation,
how dynamic speculation.
¢Ú Change the key is the stock market performance, stock index futures
is the thermometer, is the mirror. Real estate banking stocks affected
the impact of regulation, it is supposed to be down. Frustration on
the stock index futures entity.
¢Û Hedging is also a large number of implementation difficulties.
Look at the contracts, if buying a similar index of 300 stocks (on 180
and Shenzhen 100); short selling stock index futures after the two,
with 6-7% of the arbitrage space. This arbitrage than 7-8% of
corporate bonds to buy the. And buying real stocks, throw the contract
is to spend a lot of money; spend a lot of money to buy real stocks;
throwing money stock index futures. If both long and short game
intense, short selling can be penetrated, but also margin. Than buying
bonds, shares hit a small income, so few people actually do.
 In addition, 98% are speculative gain, no on the open, reverse
participate; positions and small (dispersed very far); no one will
stock index futures for their own three to five hands; to mobilize
funds to buy a few large stood on a firm offer.
¢Ü stock index futures also diverted a large number of short-term
customer financing
Stock Index Futures As a result of "T +0", flexible
and convenient, Kuaijinkuaichu, very irritating. Volume gradually
enlarge; the next day to reach 122.1 billion yuan, the Shanghai and
Shenzhen 300 Index more than 118.8 billion yuan traded stock. In fact,
the original speculation that some large cap and small plates, the GEM
has been sucked away a lot of hot money; drag on Small Business, also
dropped a GEM.
This index futures, now the real has become a Kongfangliliang. When
will normal, but also look for some time.
(C) Note that the Fund greatly reduced blue-chip trend
I see the Fund a quarterly disclosure of the circumstances, very great
importance, are summarized as follows:
First, in the first quarter loss of 88.4 billion yuan fund
Loss of 66.5 billion yuan equity funds, hybrid funds loss of 23.4
billion yuan. Only the bond, currency type base Jin Xiaoying. The QDII
overseas areas have a loss of 362 million yuan.
  Small Cap Fund, which is much better than large cap funds. One of
the best is the Harvest theme and China Select Fund. GF 500 2 500
funds and small cap funds the South is also good.
2, greatly reduced the Fund's shares as follows: Bank of
Beijing, Industrial Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank, Industrial and
Commercial Bank of China, Bank of Communications, China Merchants
Bank, has been a lot of fund holdings.
Third, the fund completely throw away the stock clearance are:
Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel, TISCO stainless steel, Wuhan, China
Shenhua, Luan ring to the National Yang new energy, Pingdingshan
shares, Shenhuo shares, coal and other Northwest.
This shows the Fund's thinking has changed from
"undervalued" and "Value
depression" get out of large cap, into the pharmaceutical,
consumer goods industry and the country's power sector policy
support, information industry stocks up.
  Note: So far, stock index futures and stock size appears not to
switch, Small Business, the GEM because of its small cap, high net
worth, high-delivery transfer (50%), still by people of all ages. SME
board, the GEM has also decreased recently, but there are hot spots
occur, for example: Hanwang technology, clean water source innovation
high, such as the blossoming flowers are blooming and opening.