Modeling Effects of Suspension-Feeding Zooplankton on Water Quality by yku91514

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									    Modeling Effects of Suspension-Feeding
       Zooplankton on Water Quality
             in Chesapeake Bay

Marie Bundy : National Science Foundation, Office of Polar Programs
                and Academy of Natural Sciences , mbundy@nsf.gov

Steven Bartell: E2 Consulting Engineers, Inc., smbartell@aol.com

Charles Gallegos: Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, gallegosc@si.edu

Fred Jacobs: AKRF, Inc., Fred_Jacobs@akrf.com

Jingjie Zhang: GLERL /NOAA, jingjie.zhang@noaa.gov
                     Objectives
Overall objective: To understand the influence of zooplankton
    communities on water quality in Chesapeake bay

 To develop a SAS spreadsheet model that can provide
    spatiotemporal information on zooplankton clearance
    rates in Chesapeake Bay;

 To develop a Chesapeake Bay Comprehensive Aquatic
    Ecosystem Model (CB_CASM) that has the potential to
    couple with other existing models.

 Use CB_CASM to test the potential for nutrient changes to
    influence zooplankton suspension-feeders and their
    impacts on Chesapeake Bay water quality.
               Methodology
                                       CBP
                                      Monitoring
                                      Database
CB_SAS Model


                 CB_CASM


CB_Ecopath                        CB_QUAL-ICM




                Decision-Making
    Consumption estimates for suspension feeding
                    zooplankton
               “ CB_SAS Model”
Inputs:
    –   Phytoplankton: sizes >2 mm
    –   Temperature:
    –   Zooplankton: from CBP monitoring database

Calculations of Total Clearance:

          Cl  C (F ).V pC p               C(F ) C max Km
                                                         Km  F
-Vp is the specific predator volume (ml) and Cp (ind.) is the concentration of
        the predator, Cmax is the max. clearance, Km is the half saturation food
        density, F is the available food.

Outputs:
    –   Temporal abundances of zooplankton/phytoplankton (ml/L)
    –   Clearance rates (ml/day) for different zooplankton species at different monitoring
        stations,
    –   Parameters including half saturation constants and max. clearance rates
                                   Density dependent ingestion rates




                     Imax
Ingestion rate (I)




                            Cmax




                                      Imax = max ingestion; Cmax = max clearance; Km = half
                                          saturation food density (after Hansen et al. 1997)


                             Km       prey density (d)
Calculated Clearance at different stations
CB_SAS Model Results For Zooplankton
-   Annual Zooplankton Clearance at different salinity zones :
                                 Annual clearance rate at different salinity zones




                           500
                                                                             Tidal Fresh
      Clearance (ml/day)




                           400                                               Oligohaline
                           300                                               M esohaline
                                                                             Polyhaline
                           200
                           100
                             0
                             1997     1998   1999 2000    2001   2002
                                                Year
    Max. Clearance at different stations in Polyhaline areas




Stations                        Max. Clearance
                                     (ml/day)


           1998 Month        1999     Month       2000 Month     2001    Month
CB6.1      265   September   1,341      August     24     June    119    September

CB6.4      241      August   5,332      August    146     July    106    September

CB7.3E     192      August   1,763        May      94     July   3,945       June
CB7.4      727        July   4,678         July   335     June    358         July
LE5.5       76   September    154         May     595     July    272       August

WE4.2       67   September    120         May     112    March    400    September
   Max. Clearance at different stations in Mesohaline areas

Stations                       Max. Clearance

                              (ml/day)
           1998 Month          1999 Month          2000 Month         2001 Month
CB3.3C      406      March      163         May     135       June     113     July

CB4.3C      249   September     177         May     134   September    247     May

CB5.2        63      August      72        April    295   September    151   August

ET5.2       547        May      244         July    527      August    192   March

LE1.1       202        May       111     August      41        May     217   August

LE2.2       165     October      48      October     57   September    154     May

LE3.6        83   September     215        April    234     October     57   August

RET3.1      112        July     796      August     553        July     39     April

RET4.3      462        May     4,010     August      26   November     116     April

SBE5        106   September     601      August     104   September    127   August

WT5.1       601      March      143        June     274      March     108    June
    Max. Clearance at different stations in Oligohaline areas


Stations                       Max. Clearance

                                       (ml/day)

           1998     Month      1999     Month       2000    Month     2001    Month

CB2.2       927    December     543         June     449    August    4,276     April


ET5.1      4,160       June    1,453        July     487    August    1,401     July


RET2.2      685        July     673         April    523    August     659    August

RET5.2     1,723       July     199      October    1,049     June     108    August


TF1.7      2,701       April    538         April   1,395      May    5,492     April


TF3.3       103        June     713         July     519       July     81      Dec.
    Max. Clearance at different stations in Tidal Fresh areas




Stations              Max. Clearance


                               (ml/day)


           1998 Month       1999 Month             2000 Month     2001 Month

TF1.5      3,375     July    912            July    845    July    863    Dec.

TF2.3      8,706   August   6,982         August   3,503   July    274    June

TF4.2       295     June     737           June     377    July    124   March

TF5.5       361    August    145            July     64    June     41    June
Seasonal dynamics of clearance rates in Mesohaline
               Polyhaline areas
Seasonal dynamics of clearance rates in Tidal Fresh
             and Oligohaline areas
  CB_SAS Model Results:
Zooplankton clearance rates vary tremendously at different
    stations, seasons, and salinity zones (e.g., the highest
    could reach 8.7 L day-1 at station TF 2.3 and the lowest is about
    20 ml day-1 at Stations CB RET3.1 and CB6.1).


• Max. clearance (C) of zooplankton mostly occurs in summer and fall ;
• Max. clearance of zooplankton at different salinity zones generally
   follows the trend:
    – tidal fresh and oligohaline > polyhaline and mesohaline
    (tidal fresh and oligohaline almost 2X polyhaline and mesohaline);

• Annual average clearance:
    – tidal fresh > oligohaline > mesohaline > polyhaline (except 1999 for
      polyhaline )
                               Clearance (ml/day)
           E.
                A
                FF




                                 0
                                50
                               100
                               150
                               200
                               250
                               300
                               350
                               400
           E . I NI
              A         S
                FF _A
                    I
            A NI S
              .T          _C
                 O
                   N
            A         S
              . T A_
         CO ON A
             PE SA_
        G POD C
          A            A
            M
               M         _N
       BA         A
          LA R U
              N
P.              ID S_A
   PO              AE
      LY                _C
                M
         PH        O Y
            EM INA
      PO                  _
         L Y OI D J
                                                              (June 6 of 1999)




            CH ES
                 A        _
                   ET J
            CY A_
                 C         L
                   LO
                       PS
                                                    Clearance vs. Species at Station CB2.2




                          _C
                                                                                             Species abundance and clearance in Oligohaline Areas
                                Clearance (ml/day)
          E.
               A
                FF




                                1000
                                2000
                                3000
                                4000
                                5000
                                6000
                                7000
                                8000
                                9000




                                   0
         E . I NI
             A          S
                 FF _A
       CO           IN
           PE          IS
                          _C
      G PO
         A
           M DA
               M         _N
                  A
                    R
 B.       D           U
    LO AP S_A
       NG HN
            IR         IA
                 O        _
                   ST J
 D AL O R I
   IA                    S
      PH NE _ J
         A           LL
            N
                OS A_J
         L . OM
     BR KIN A_ J
         A          D
           CH TII
                                                              (August 3 of 1999)




      D          IO _J
                    N
        IA
           PT US
                O         _
                   M A
          CY US
                                                     Clearance vs. Species at Station TF2.3




                 C _A
                   LO
          M           P
               . E S_
                   D        C
C.                   A
   BI M.               X
     CU ED _A
         SP          A
             I D X_
                  A        A
                    TU
                        S_
                           A
                                                                                              Species abundance and clearance in Tidal Fresh Areas
                            Clearance (ml/day)
          E.
               A
              FF




                              0
                             20
                             40
                             60
                             80
                            100
                            120
                            140
                            160
        E . I NI
            A       S
              FF _A
         A I NI
           .T        S_
               O
                 N C
          A       S
            . T A_
       CO ON A
          PE SA_
      BA PO             C
                  D
         LA         A
                      _
P. BA NID N
  PO LA           A
    LY NI E_
      P H DA N
         E        E_
    PO M              C
      L Y OI D Y
          CH ES
     C.        A      _
        H        ET J
          A        A
                                                            (May 11 of 1999)




            M        _L
               A
                 TU
                    S_
                        A
                                                 Clearance vs. Species at Station CB3.3C
                                                                                           Species abundance and clearance in Mesohaline Areas
                         Clearance (ml/day)
      L.
 E.       A
     PR ES                                                                             Areas
        AE TIV




                          500
                         1000
                         1500
                         2000
                         2500
                         3000
                         3500
                         4000




                            0
            L O A_
               NG A
         S.
            EM US_
        R. PU Z
           HA SA
               RR _ Z
T.
   DI A.T ISII
      SC       ON _Z
         AU      S
             DA A_
                TU C
           A.
     P.       TO S_A
        AV N
            IR SA_
        C. OS T A
   P.      TY R I
      CO PIC S_ J
                                                         (July 6 of 1999)




   PA RON US_
      RA A          A
         CA     TU
              LA S_A
          OI NU
                                              Clearance vs. Species at Station CB7.4




             TH S_
                ON A
                  A_
                     A
                                                                                       Species abundance and clearance in Polyhaline
             Clearance (ml/day)




         100
         200
         300
         400
         500
         600
         700
         800




           0
3/24/1998

6/24/1998

9/24/1998

12/24/1998

3/24/1999

6/24/1999

9/24/1999
                                T




12/24/1999
                    T-5
                          T+5




3/24/2000

6/24/2000
                                    Clearance Change with Temperature




9/24/2000

12/24/2000
                                                                        changing temperature at Station CB3.3C




3/24/2001
                                                                        Sensitivity analysis of clearance change with




6/24/2001

9/24/2001
Sensitive analysis of Acartia Tonsa clearance change
with change of Phytoplankton abundance

                          Clearance Change with Prey Concentrationtion

                          20
  Clearance (ml/day per




                          15
       copepode)




                          10

                          5

                          0
                               -8      -6          -4          -2        0
                                             Log10(C) (ml/l)
CB_SAS Model Results For Zooplankton
Species abundance and clearance :
• Eurytemora affinis and Acartia tonsa are the most
  dominant species that have significant contributions to
  clearance;
• Zooplankton copepodite stages also provide significant
  contributions to the total clearance;
• Microzooplankton such as copepod nauplii play an
  important role in the clearance;
• Changes in the max. ingestion rate and max. clearance
  rate (e.g., by increasing temperature) results in major
  impacts on clearance; the clearance rates also decrease
  with food concentration.
                          CB_CASM Model
• 2D box model:
   Zhang, Bartell, Bundy et al: Adapt and modify Steven Bartell´s CASM_P5 food web model
   and Fulford´s CASM_foodweb model.

• Temporal and Spatial dynamic:
   Data between March of 1998 and March of 2001 for model development,
   5 Segments and but focus on mesohaline and polyhaline in the main bay stream under
   consideration of stratification.

• State variables:
   35 species including 16 producers and 19 consumers (submerged plants, periphyton and
   emergents left for future consideration)
   Nutrients covering nitrogen, phosphorus and silicon, organic matter
   dissolved oxygen concentration.

• Forcing Functions: Temperature, wind, current velocity, solar radiation and nutrient
   inputs

• Food webs : lower trophic level interactions, dynamic parameters with size
   dependence and species preference
                           1. Current CB_CASM approach:
                              4 Segments at Stations:

 Oligohaline
                              Middle Bay: CB3.3C, CB5.2
                              Lower Bay: CB6.1, CB7.4

Mesohaline

                           2. Future CB_CASM approach:
                              10 Segments at Stations:
Polyhaline
                              Upper Bay: CB2.2
                              Middle Bay: CB3.3C, CB5.2
                              Lower Bay: CB6.1, CB7.4
                              Other Tributaries : RET5.2,
                                RET4.3, TF3.3, RET2.2,
                                ET5.2
Map of Selected stations
for CB_CASM (derived
from Chesapeake Bay
network website)
• Phytoplankton :
      Phytog100 > 100 µm
      Phytog10050 50 ~ 100 µm
      Phyto1050   10 ~ 50 µm
      Phyto410     4 ~ 10 µm
      Phyto24      2 ~ 10 µm
      Phyto2     <2 µm
• Zooplankton:
   Microzoopl < 80 µm: main ciliates
   Microzoopl2 80 ~ 200 µm :main copepod nauplii
   Merozoop larvae
   Acartia tonsa
   Eurytemora affinis
• Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV):
        Eelgrass
        Widgeongrass
        Redheadgrass
        Sagopondweed
• Pelagic Omnivorous Fish:

        Atlantic menhaden
        Bay anchovy
        Bay anchovy larvae

• Gelatinous Zooplankton:
        Cteophores
        Sea nettles
        Cteophores Larvae
• Benthic Invertebrates:
         “On Reef” Invertebrates
         “Off Reef” Invertebrates
         Oysters
         Oysters Larvae


• Benthic Fish: Reef-Associated Fish (gobies ,
  blennies   )
              Non-Reef Associated Fish (spot, croaker)
                    CB_CASM Model



Phytoplankton with    Pelagic                  Zooplankton with 5       Input Data
6 classifications     Bacteria                 classifications



Nutrients with N, P        Detritus            Pelagic Omnivorous       Run Model
and Si                                         Fish with 3   groups

SAV with 5                                                              Output Data
                                               Gelatinous Zooplankton
classifications                                with 3 groups



                      Benthic Invertebrates
                                                                        Plot Data
Benthic Bacteria                               Benthic Fish with
                      with 4 classifications   2 classifications

                                                                        Close
     CB_CASM Model Results
• Comparison of simulated peak value with the observed ones
   Model                         Middle Bay                                         Lower Bay
   state
   variable
                 CB3.3C Max. Biomass      CB5.2 Max. Biomass     CB6.1 Max. Biomass       CB7.4 Max. Biomass
                       (mgC/l)                  (mgC/l)                (mgC/l)                  (mgC/l)
                Simulated     Observed   Simulated   Observed   Simulated   Observed     Simulated   Observed
                0.660                    0.616                  0.600                   0.483
   Phyt50       (58%)       0.303        (19%)       0.501      (1%)        0.592       (49%)        0.718
                0.840       0.638        0.804       0.398      1.020       0.821       0.841        1.174
   Phyt1050     (24%)                    (50%)                  (20%)                   (40%)
                0.503       0.208        0.601       0.536      0.825       0.400       0.701        0.655
   Phyt410      (58%)                    (11%)                  (51%)                   (7%)


                0.043 (39%)     0.026    0.031       0.033      0.034       0.220       0.031        0.030
   Microzoop2                   0        (6%)                   (>100%)                 (3%)
                0.170 (63%)     0.062    0.078       0.041      0.013       0.208       0.028        0.051
   Mesozoop                     1        (47%)                  (>100%)                 (45%(
                0.015           0.019    0.010       0.017      0.003       0.106       0.024        0.021
   Czoop1       (27%)                    (41%)                  (>100%)                 (12%)
CB_CASM Model Results
• Comparsion of simulated and observed Seasonal dynamics at
Station CB3.3C
CB_CASM Model Results
• Comparsion of simulated and observed Seasonal dynamics at
Station CB7.4
                     CB_CASM Model Results
• Changes of Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Biomass with
Nutrients Increase and Decrease at Station CB3.3C


                                    Total Phytoplankton change with nutrient changes (140%,0% and 60%)                       Zooplankton clearance changes with nutrients changes (140%, 0% and
                                                                                                                                                           60%)
                     3.00E+00
                                                                                                                           5.00E-01




                                                                                                         Biomass (mgC/l)
   Biomass (mgC/l)




                     2.50E+00
                                                                                         InTotPhyto                        4.00E-01
                     2.00E+00                                                                                                                                              InTotZoop
                                                                                         TotPhyto                                                                          TotZoop
                     1.50E+00                                                                                              3.00E-01
                                                                                         DeTotPhyto                                                                        DeTotZoop
                     1.00E+00                                                                                              2.00E-01

                     5.00E-01                                                                                              1.00E-01
                     0.00E+00                                                                                              0.00E+00
                                0       50     100    150     200    250    300    350     400                                        0       100        200         300         400
                                                             Days                                                                                       Days
           CB_CASM Model Results
• Changes of Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Biomass with
Nutrients Increase and Decrease at Station CB7.4


                         Total Phytoplankton change with nutrients change
                                        (140%, 0% and 60%)
                                                                                                 Total Zopplankton change with nutrients change (140%,
                                                                                                                     0% and 60%)
                                                            InTotPhyto
                      3.50E+00
                                                            TotPhyto
                      3.00E+00                                                                1.00E-01                             InTotZoop
                                                            DeTotPhyto




                                                                            Biomass (mgC/l)
                                                                                                                                   TotZoop
    Biomass (mgC/l)




                      2.50E+00                                                                8.00E-02
                                                                                                                                   DeTotZoop
                      2.00E+00                                                                6.00E-02
                      1.50E+00
                                                                                              4.00E-02
                      1.00E+00
                                                                                              2.00E-02
                      5.00E-01
                      0.00E+00                                                                0.00E+00
                                 0   100     200      300      400                                       0    100      200       300       400
                                             Days                                                                      Days
     CB_CASM Model Results
• Changes of Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Community with
Nutrients Increase and Decrease at Station CB3.3C
 Species        Biomass % in Spring             Biomass % in Summer               Biomass % in Fall
              Increased   Present   Decreased   Increased   Present   Decreased   Increased   Present   Decreased


 Phyt50       30          35        56          30          13        10          26          27        46
 Phyt1050     31          37        31          35          66        68          32          35        48
 Phyt410      23          27        8           29          16        16          20          21        5



              13          15        15          23          17        16          20          20        14
 Microzoop2

 Mesozoop     49          49        49          21          46        46          78          78        72
 Czoop1       1.5         2         2           18          14        14          0.2         0.2       1.4
 Czoop2*      36          34        34                                            1.6         1.7       12
     CB_CASM Model Results
• Changes of Phytoplankton and Zooplankton Community with
Nutrients Increase and Decrease at Station CB7.4
 Species       Biomass % in Spring             Biomass % in Summer               Biomass % in Fall
             Increased   Present   Decreased   Increased   Present   Decreased   Increased   Present   Decreased


 Phyt50      27          32        34          20          31        35          18          22        42
 Phyt1050    27          33        42          30          44        40          28          30        41

 Phyt410     26          30        14          46          16        14          32          32        9




 Microzoop   26          26        26          29          18        15          75          75        33
 2
 Mesozoop    25          25        25          6           26        25          20          19        45
 Czoop1      46          46        46          18          44        48          5           5         11
 Czoop2*
                                   CB_CASM Model Results
• Changes of Zooplankton Clearance with Nutrients Increase and
Decrease at Station CB7.4

                               Clearance change with nutrietns change (140%, 0% and 60%) at Statuion CB3.3C                            Zooplankton clearance change with nutrients (140%, 0% and 60%) at Station
                                                                                                                                                                         CB7.4
                    3.00E+00

                                                                                                                                  5.00E-01                                   InTotalClerance
                    2.50E+00
                                                                       InTotalClerance                                                                                       TotalClerance




                                                                                                              Clearance (L/Day)
                                                                       TotalClerance                                              4.00E-01
Clearance (L/day)




                    2.00E+00                                                                                                                                                 TotalDeClerance
                                                                       TotalDeClerance
                                                                                                                                  3.00E-01
                    1.50E+00
                                                                                                                                  2.00E-01
                    1.00E+00
                                                                                                                                  1.00E-01
                    5.00E-01
                                                                                                                                  0.00E+00
                    0.00E+00                                                                                                                 0   50   100    150    200    250     300       350   400
                               0      50      100     150     200      250      300      350    400
                                                                                                                                                                   Days
                                                              Days
         Conclusion and Prospective
• The SAS_Model can be used for giving information of spatiotemporal
   zooplankton clearances in Chesapeake Bay;

• The developed CB_CASM has demonstrated it may be applied for describing
   the multiple species dynamic, especially suspension feeding zooplankton
   community change with nutrient changes, and thereby the water quality
   change;


• CB_CASM may be coupled with Ecopath and other existing models for long-
   term forecasting;

• Refinements of the CB_CASM, an additional model calibration and
   validation of CB_CASM for other species and species with high uncertainties
   is needed and will improve the model performance .
                 Acknowledge
•   EPA CBP Program Office
•   SERC, Smithsonian Institution
•   Academy of Natural Sciences
•   National Science Foundation (Bundy support)
•   Chesapeake Bay Program
•   Chesapeake Bay Modeling Community and
    Living Resources Subcommittee
•   Phytoplankton Lab, SERC
•   Individuals:
    Christy Stoll, Satish Serchan, Denise Breitburg,
    Rich Fulford, Xuyong Li, Ping Wang, Xingsheng
    Zhang and other colleagues

								
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