VTEC Current Status and Future Plans

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					     National Weather Service

                    VTEC
 Current Status and Future Plans

                 Jason Tuell
         Office of Science and Technology
Mark Tew, Herb White and Arthur Kraus
   Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services

                                                   1
                 Overview

• Summary of VTEC activities in 2004
• OT&E Results
• VTEC Implementation
• Plans for 2005
• GHG Overview
• Key Milestones
• Partner participation
• 10-1703 changes
• Summary

                                       2
                     VTEC in 2004
                 Summary of Activities
• Delivered VTEC software to the field for operational
  testing
  • WARNGEN – short fuse convective and hydrological warnings
  • WWA – long fuse watches and warnings
  • RiverPro – hydrological warnings
• Delayed testing of VTEC in four marine products to
  allow policy and software to be refined
  • GHG, Graphical Hazard Generation, software not ready for
    OT&E schedule
  • Delayed products
    – Offshore waters forecast, Nearshore waters forecast
    – Open Lakes forecast, Great Lakes forecast
• Conducted OT&E 30 August – 21 October


                                                                3
                   VTEC OT&E

• OT&E conducted 30 August - 21 October
• OT&E objectives:
  • Demonstrate VTEC codes and associated critical portions of
    the products were 95±5% error free
  • Demonstrate the VTEC concept of operations
  • Demonstrate that training on VTEC and software applications
    was sufficient to meet the objectives defined above
  • Demonstrate that VTEC quality control was implemented to
    insure accurate and consistent products
  • Demonstrate that VTEC products could be read and
    processed by NWS customers and parthers




                                                                  4
                   OT&E Results
                 VTEC Product Statistics

  Service area        Total     Passed     Failed
                    Evaluated    # - (%)   # - (%)
Hydro                  745        437       308
                                 (59%)     (41%)
Marine                 199        164        35
                                 (82%)     (18%)
Severe                 733        657        76
                                 (90%)     (10%)
Fire                   54         31         22
                                 (57%)     (43%)
Public                 469        358       111
                                 (76%)     (24%)
Total                 2200       1647       553
                                 (75%)     (25%)


                                                     5
             Long Fuse Warnings
                           WWA

100.00%
 90.00%
 80.00%
 70.00%                                                    NPW
 60.00%                                                    WSW
 50.00%                                                    CFW
                                                           RFW
 40.00%
                                                           MA.S
 30.00%
 20.00%
 10.00%
  0.00%
          Week   Week   Week   Week   Week   Week   Week
           1      2      3      4      5      6      7


                                                                  6
                       OT&E Results
          WarnGen VTEC Product Statistics


100.00%
 90.00%
 80.00%
 70.00%
                                                             SVR
 60.00%                                                      TOR
 50.00%
 40.00%
                                                             SVS
 30.00%                                                      SMW
 20.00%
 10.00%                                                      MWS
                                                             (MA.W)
  0.00%
          Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7



                                                                      7
                       OT&E Results
                      Hydrology Products
• Issues identified with Hydro products early in OT&E
   • ETN continuity for products with same phenomena and
     significance codes issued by different applications
       – By product of three different warning applications and lack of a centralized
         ETN database
       – Multiple applications used by different WFOs to generate same products
• New & unique phenomena code proposed to address ETN
  continuity problem
• Policy directive 10-922 will mandate which application will be
  used to generate which product
   • Areal flood warnings and advisories to be generated solely by
     WARNGEN vice WWA
   • Regions and partners concur




                                                                                        8
               OT&E Results
                      WWA

• Products produced by the WWA application
  did not meet the acceptance criteria
• Forecaster workload and useability of the
  WWA application an issue
 • Offices with WWA experience generally more
   successful
 • WWA paradigm not a good fit with digital services
 • Errors likely in products that are infrequently
   issues due to complexity of software and lack of
   familiarity
• Decision not to use WWA to implement VTEC


                                                       9
                               Evaluation Criteria
                                         Assessment
Objectives                      Criteria                         Evaluation

Training                        Ave of 3 or better on training   VTEC – 3.6
                                surveys                          WBC – no surveys; training was
                                                                 completed before the plan was approved.
                                                                 Sense is training was adequate, tool is
                                                                 the issue

VTEC Code Compliance with 10-   VTEC format, Product Code and    WWA - VTEC strings matched the
1701 and 10-1703                MND header are 95% accurate      specification, but ETNs were not correct;
                                                                 MND header issues need to be further
                                                                 analyzed for WWA. Initial problems with
                                                                 automatic setting of X, E, and/or T codes
                                                                 were fixed during OT&E via ATAN, sites
                                                                 forgot to undue the workaround. All
                                                                 products need to remove illegal chars.
                                                                 WarnGen VTEC Code complied



Product internal consistency    Products 85% accurate            WWA – ETNs were problematic.
                                                                 Corrections incorrectly coded in WMO
                                                                 header due to limitation.




                                                                                                             10
           OT&E Test Review Group
              Recommendation
• Go forward with VTEC in five WarnGen Products on 8 February
  (SVR, TOR, SVS, SMW and MWS)
   • Statistical criteria met, SVS and MWS met in final two weeks
• Do not go operational with VTEC in WWA products on 8
  February
   • Statistical criteria not met; Service Backup did not pass
   • OT&E sites retain experimental VTEC string “x”
• Do not go operational with WBC on 8 February
   • Statistical criteria met for products issued (82%)
   • WWA software not stable
• Do not go operational with VTEC in any Hydrology products
  (WWA, WarnGen, RiverPro) on 8 February
• Descope VTEC and WBC requirements to phase in capability

                                                                    11
                 OT&E Decision

• Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings
  • VTEC in short fuse convective warnings met acceptance
    criteria
• Delay VTEC implementation in other products until
  software was improved, deficiencies resolved
• Accelerate development of GHG, Graphical Headline
  Generation, to replace WWA for marine and long fuse
  watches and warnings
• Conduct separate OT&E late Spring CY05 on
  remaining products that will have VTEC




                                                            12
             VTEC Implementation

• 18 Z 8 Feb 2005 - VTEC implemented in short fuse
  convective watches and warnings
  •   WOU Initial,
  •   SVR - Severe Thunderstorm Warning
  •   TOR- Tornado warning
  •   SVS - Severe follow up statement
  •   SMW - Special Marine Warning
  •   MWS - Marine Weather Statement (follow up on SMW only)
• VTEC introduced in products listed above during
  January in “.x” (Operational products with
  experimental VTEC line) mode
• All short fuse convective products to be converted to
  “.o” mode (operational products with operational
  VTEC line) on 8 Feb

                                                               13
               Plans for 2005

• Implement VTEC in short fuse convective
  warnings on 8 Feb
• Implement VTEC in remainder of critical watch
  and warning products by end of hurricane
  season CY05
 • Replace the WWA software with GHG
 • Implement VTEC in the hydrology products




                                                  14
              GHG Overview

• GHG = Graphical Hazards Generation
  • Utilize digital grids paradigm to represent hazard
  • Use GFEsuite software which is familiar to all WFO
    forecasters
  • Add capability to produce VTEC coding and format
    long-fused watch, warning, advisory ,statement
    and some forecast products.
  • Concept prototyped (without VTEC) last winter at
    20 CR offices




                                                         15
GHG




      16
                    VTEC 2005
                 Test Plan Schematic
                    GHG Risk
                   Reduction &
Preliminary
                    WBC Static        WARNGEN          RiverPro
   DT&E
                     Testing         Development     Development


        FSL Development


                                             AWIPS
GHG DT&E         GHG IOT&E
                                             OB5.1


    WBC Static
                     VTEC OT&E
     Re-Test

              Partner Notification

                                                                   17
                     VTEC
             Testing and Training

• Repeat one OT&E for all VTEC products
  • Convergence with Hydro (WARNGEN & RiverPro)
    Products for testing with GHG Products.
• Training
  • Provide additional training on VTEC concepts of
    operation
  • Provide GHG training




                                                      18
                      GHG
               Watch By County
• WBC Program Implementation will use GHG
  • Process is much simpler and can be validated
  • Work within reasonable SPC timeframe for testing
• WCN becomes official with VTEC
  • May be able to notify earlier (separate from VTEC)
    date




                                                         19
                                    GHG Plan
                     Key Milestones - Update
•   Basic GHG Training Delivered                                        12/15/04
•   VTEC GHG Risk Reduction (RR) Testing (at NOAA”s NWSHQ)              beginning 12/20/04
•   Issue IFPS 17.0 GHG ATAN for WFO OT&E sites                         1/26/05
•   IFPS 17.0 deployment at WFO RR Sites (incl. WCN formatter)          beginning 2/02/05
•   WBC Static Tests w/SPC (use WFO RR sites)                           2/07/05 – 2/18/05
•   Fast Service Backup Capability Testing                              1/31/05 – 2/18/05
•   Initial GHG Development Completed Milestone                         2/18/05
•   GHG VTEC/WBC DT&E                                                   3/07/05 – 3/11/05
•   GHG VTEC/WBC IOT&E                                                  3/14/05 – 3/25/05
•   GHG Training Administered (OT&E sites)                              3/28/05 – 5/07/05
•   WBC Static Test w/SPC (regression)                                  4/11/05 – 4/21/05
•   GHG Training Administered (remaining sites)                         4/25/05 – 9/23/05
•   National Deployment of Experimental WCN (IFPS 17.X)                 5/18/05 – 6/30/05
•   Conduct WBC Proficiency Exercises                                   5/23/05 – 7/30/05
•   VTEC OT&E (GHG + Hydro)                                             5/24/05 – 7/15/05
•   Corp. Decision for partner Notification                             7/08/05
•   OT&E Report Completed                                               7/29/05
•   Issue PNS for National Implementation                               7/11/05
•   Deploy final GHG release (IFPS 17.Final - supports VTEC turn key)   8/30/05 – 10/13/05
•   VTEC Turn Key                                                       11/1/05



                                                                                             20
          Partner Participation

• Provide feedback and evaluate impacts to
  NOAA’s NWS VTEC and WBC related directive
  changes
• Will need the participation of the partners
  during upcoming test phases
  • Evaluate product compliance during GHG risk
    reduction exercises
  • IOT&E product evalaution
  • OT&E productr evaluation




                                                  21
        Changes to NWSI 10-1703 VTEC Directive


• P-VTEC coding
    • Same ETN may appear in Multiple Product Segments of a given event
    • EXT action code will be available for Flash Flood Warning
    • VTEC in Routine Marine products
    • New Phenomena Codes
    •    FA – Areal Flood, SW – Small Craft for Seas, BW – Brisk Wind
    • Tropical Cyclone Product (TCV)
    •    Experimental in 2005 for Atlantic Basin

• H-VTEC coding
    • Addition of NWS Location Identifier (nwsli)
    • Six new Immediate Cause (ic) codes added


• Other Changes and additions
    • Valid VTEC event list added as new Appendix




                                                                          22
                 Summary

• VTEC to be partially implemented in short fuse
  convective warnings 8 Feb 2005
• OT&E successful - determined what would
  and wouldn’t work in an operational setting
• GHG software development accelerated to
  replace WWA
• Second VTEC OT&E to be conducted late
  spring 2005
• VTEC implementation in remaining products
  by end of hurricane season 2005

                                                   23
National Weather Service

     Back Up Slides




                           24
                 GHG Testing Roadmap

•   Preliminary GHG DT&E (12/20/04 – 1/28/05)
     •   Subset list of products validated (WSW,NPW,WCN,SPS)
•   GHG VTEC Limited Site Test (begin 2/02/05)
     •   Backup pairs from each region (PR will use WES)
     •   Provides test of infrastructure (service backup, Action Table)
     •   Provides discovery period prior to OT&E (risk reduction)
     •   WBC Static and Service Backup Testing with SPC
•   GHG DT&E (3/7 – 3/11/05)
     •   Test all product formatters and software after development period
•   GHG IOT&E (3/14 – 3/25/05)
     •   Use realistic scenarios with field forecasters at test facility
     •   Identify and categorize issues
•   WBC Static and Service Backup Regression Testing (4/11 – 4/21/05)
     •   Re-test end-to-end WOU to WCN generation after software upgrades
•   GHG and Hydro VTEC OT&E (5/24 – 7/15/05)
     •   Additional OT&E sites added to initial group
•   Corp Decision for notification message (7/08/05)



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