DSS Model by pop12622

VIEWS: 69 PAGES: 25

									A Model For Forecasting Demand
Inputs                                                Outputs
Quarter# "t"                                    23
                                                      Total Industry Demand
Estimates for Industry (for Qtr "t")
Estimated Average Price                       376     Relative Demand
Estimated Average Advertising              100000
Number of Firms in Industry                    10     Market Share

Your Decisions (for Qtr. "t")                         Your Firm's Estimated Demand
Price                                     370.3702
Advertising                                 90000     Average Demand

Historical Data for Qtr = t-1                         AFD Model's Coefficients
Your Demand                                  2500     Variable
Total Industry Demand                       25000     Exogenous Constant
                                                      PRD
                                                      Endogenous Constant
Calculations                                          Avg_Price
Relative Price (Qtr = t)                  0.985027
Relative Advertising (Qtr = t)                  0.9
                                                      NSOM Model's Coefficients
Average Demand (Qtr = t-1)                    2500                                   Coefficients
Your Firm's Relative Demand (Qtr = t-1)          1    Intercept
                                                      Prel
                                                      Arel
                                                      NSOM1
                          Sensitivity Analysis
                          Input                                  Starting Point     1% Increase
               17133.77   Price                                             378           381.78

               1.167286   Output
                          Firm Demand                                   1426.483         1142.384
                11.67%    Rate of Change                                            -75.15846561

                  2000    Scenario Analysis
                          Input                                  High              Current
               1713.377                    Industry
                          Estimated Average Price                           400             376
                          Estimated Average Advertising                  110000          100000
Coefficients              Number of Firms in Industry                        12              10
   1259.27
     62.77                                     Firm
  15373.47                Price                                             378                378
   -40.986                Advertising                                     90000              90000

                          Output
                          Market Share                                    15.59%           8.33%
Coefficients              Firm Demand                                    2670.35         1426.48
      16.18
     -16.50               Goal Seeking
       0.78               Goal: Firm Demand                                 2000
       0.53               Price Needed                                    370.37
                                            Industy
                          Given: Estimates of Industry                      376
                          Given: Estimated Average Advertising           100000
                          Given: Number of Firms in Industry                 10

                                               Firm
                          Given: Advertising                              90000
1% Decrease
      374.22


     1710.618
 75.16798942


Low

         360
       90000
           8


         378
       90000


       0.84%
      143.51
Qtr        Firm       NSOM      Prel     Arel     NSOM1     Rrel1      Arel1     Rrel2
       3          1    0.832917 1.003288 0.974431 0.840234 0.999566 0.996951 0.981187
       4          1    0.605345 1.006329 0.752681 0.832917 0.989464 0.974431 0.999566
       5          1    0.401434 1.011535 0.805954 0.605345           1 0.752681 0.989464
       6          1    0.666402 0.993929 0.925807 0.401434    0.88872 0.805954            1
       7          1    0.611857         1 0.806455 0.666402 0.889626 0.925807      0.88872
       8          1    0.603992 1.019225   1.28655 0.611857 0.967343 0.806455 0.889626
       9          1    0.891334 1.006195   1.19887 0.603992     0.9792   1.28655 0.967343
      10          1    1.110447 0.996743 1.017618 0.891334 1.080882      1.19887     0.9792
      11          1    0.947149   0.99942 0.857076 1.110447 0.923077 1.017618 1.080882
      12          1    0.953696 1.001771 1.172872 0.947149    0.86692 0.857076 0.923077
      13          1    1.093108 0.993249 0.986641 0.953696           1 1.172872    0.86692
      14          1    0.788714   1.00545 0.822857 1.093108 1.004203 0.986641             1
      15          1    0.981371 0.996183 1.097755 0.788714 0.967917 0.822857 1.004203
      16          1    0.941787 0.995118 0.816362 0.981371    0.95565 1.097755 0.967917
      17          1    1.317718 0.974758 1.046154 0.941787 0.882204 0.816362       0.95565
      18          1     1.48849 0.983635 1.168615 1.317718 0.883797 1.046154 0.882204
      19          1    1.257264 0.991957 0.868428   1.48849 1.068536 1.168615 0.883797
      20          1     1.18213 1.001508 1.181744 1.257264 1.146995 0.868428 1.068536
       3          2    1.083375 0.997312 1.014085 1.027984 1.025663 0.980047 0.990826
       4          2    1.037252 1.003314 1.103571 1.083375 0.966636 1.014085 1.025663
       5          2    0.905431 1.017461 1.175262 1.037252 1.040568 1.103571 0.966636
       6          2    1.211424 0.996819 1.135135 0.905431 1.014231 1.175262 1.040568
       7          2    1.365538 0.984926 0.975261 1.211424 1.008484 1.135135 1.014231
       8          2    1.359836 0.983239 0.896849 1.365538 0.970504 0.975261 1.008484
       9          2    1.227211 0.994402 1.012819 1.359836 0.928367 0.896849 0.970504
      10          2    0.897465 1.002667 0.869054 1.227211 0.938212 1.012819 0.928367
      11          2    0.993046 0.996522 1.019248 0.897465 1.013699 0.869054 0.938212
      12          2    1.256255 0.998819 1.379919 0.993046 1.049484 1.019248 1.013699
      13          2    0.933793   1.01677 1.008926 1.256255 1.123267 1.379919 1.049484
      14          2    1.240313 0.987307 0.973958 0.933793 1.031034 1.008926 1.123267
      15          2    1.030683 0.999119 0.833534 1.240313 1.031378 0.973958 1.031034
      16          2    1.141686 0.997989 1.210026 1.030683 0.938697 0.833534 1.031378
      17          2    0.926046 1.001177 0.851293 1.141686 0.894693 1.210026 0.938697
      18          2    0.843369 1.009962 1.119429 0.926046    0.85155 0.851293 0.894693
      19          2    0.869989 1.000894 0.941896 0.843369 1.054615 1.119429       0.85155
      20          2    0.987704 1.001508 1.157968 0.869989 0.934775 0.941896 1.054615
       3          3    0.935264 1.000299 0.989123 0.906625    0.99523 0.982298     1.01016
       4          3    1.285599 0.988267 1.135748 0.935264 1.040055 0.989123       0.99523
       5          3    1.414943 0.982011 0.930811 1.285599 1.122699 1.135748 1.040055
       6          3    1.477192 0.982385 1.026332 1.414943 1.010381 0.930811 1.122699
       7          3    1.199261         1 1.007266 1.477192 0.945205 1.026332 1.010381
       8          3    1.162486 1.004199 1.168936 1.199261 1.183673 1.007266 0.945205
       9          3    1.301302 0.997347 1.088674 1.162486 1.111868 1.168936 1.183673
      10          3    1.299508 1.002667 1.197276 1.301302 1.031707 1.088674 1.111868
      11          3    1.303199 0.996522 1.004865 1.299508 1.100819 1.197276 1.031707
      12          3    1.232097 1.001771 1.138418 1.303199 0.934071 1.004865 1.100819
13   3   1.335762    0.993249   1.081772   1.232097     0.91324    1.138418   0.934071
14   3   1.383331    0.993347   1.066322   1.335762    1.089017    1.081772    0.91324
15   3   1.370997    1.004996   1.350245   1.383331     1.08642    1.066322   1.089017
16   3   1.584142    0.977924   0.857781   1.370997    1.028351    1.350245    1.08642
17   3   1.460854    0.989418   1.009489   1.584142    0.923954    0.857781   1.028351
18   3   1.333251    0.995319   1.024758   1.460854    1.126887    1.009489   0.923954
19   3   1.254295    0.994934   1.031169   1.333251    0.873727    1.024758   1.126887
20   3    1.26557    0.995479   1.066296   1.254295    1.063196    1.031169   0.873727
 3   4   0.956066    1.003288   1.039171    0.99229    1.025663    0.980047   0.986004
 4   4   0.740991    1.006329   0.831767   0.956066    1.003211    1.039171   1.025663
 5   4   1.041081    0.999705   1.194081   0.740991     1.13306    0.831767   1.003211
 6   4   0.883776    1.011295   0.975816   1.041081    1.010381    1.194081    1.13306
 7   4   0.533065    1.027248   0.979955   0.883776    0.959198    0.975816   1.010381
 8   4   0.787693    0.995205   0.840254   0.533065    0.954718    0.979955   0.959198
 9   4   0.658285    1.006195   0.872873   0.787693       1.0955   0.840254   0.954718
10   4   0.996366    0.990826   0.977566   0.658285    1.166314    0.872873      1.0955
11   4    0.83936     1.00232   0.840838   0.996366    1.163234    0.977566   1.166314
12   4   0.946793    0.989973   0.775664    0.83936     1.11039    0.840838   1.163234
13   4   1.300488     0.98153   1.074225   0.946793    0.992395    0.775664    1.11039
14   4   1.449908     0.98429   0.991484   1.300488    1.291274    1.074225   0.992395
15   4   1.521369    0.984457   1.004028   1.449908    1.156077    0.991484   1.291274
16   4   1.144195    1.000862   0.843123   1.521369    1.089023    1.004028   1.156077
17   4   1.307309    0.998235   1.200595   1.144195    1.155642    0.843123   1.089023
18   4   1.264029    0.995319   0.964504   1.307309    0.894593    1.200595   1.155642
19   4   1.152492    1.003877   1.130003   1.264029    0.985582    0.964504   0.894593
20   4   1.045992    0.995479   0.713409   1.152492    1.121343    1.130003   0.985582
 3   5   1.014312    1.000299   1.006129   1.006568    1.043137    1.019579   1.034433
 4   5      0.9286   1.006329   1.038507   1.014312    1.007802    1.006129   1.043137
 5   5   1.335539    0.984956   1.082195      0.9286   1.159056    1.038507   1.007802
 6   5   1.313764    0.999711   1.172626   1.335539    0.968224    1.082195   1.159056
 7   5   1.234581     1.00302    1.12092   1.313764    1.119371    1.172626   0.968224
 8   5   0.960587    1.004199   0.832919   1.234581    0.935841     1.12092   1.119371
 9   5   0.758419    1.003244   0.831054   0.960587    0.960077    0.832919   0.935841
10   5   0.976126    0.999704   1.138585   0.758419    1.031707    0.831054   0.960077
11   5    0.90612     1.01103   1.109678   0.976126    1.044275    1.138585   1.031707
12   5   0.773655    1.004725   0.747982    0.90612     0.99786    1.109678   1.044275
13   5   0.790759    1.002056    0.92456   0.773655     1.15456    0.747982    0.99786
14   5   0.925391     1.00545   1.187018   0.790759    1.000382     0.92456    1.15456
15   5   0.848655     1.01677   1.173286   0.925391    0.812722    1.187018   1.000382
16   5   0.950151    1.012371   1.186458   0.848655    1.119636    1.173286   0.812722
17   5   1.046194    1.007067   1.107862   0.950151    1.068581    1.186458   1.119636
18   5   1.146883    0.995319   0.974685   1.046194    0.981818    1.107862   1.068581
19   5    1.16649    0.991957   0.930849   1.146883    1.037267    0.974685   0.981818
20   5   1.073539    0.992468   0.846424    1.16649     0.90318    0.930849   1.037267
 3   6   1.015144    1.000299   1.000454   1.078669    0.960674     1.01278   1.000483
 4   6   0.965717    0.994281   0.806522   1.015144    0.971193    1.000454   0.960674
 5   6   0.812242    1.005616   0.973941   0.965717    1.148642    0.806522   0.971193
 6   6   0.994843    0.988154   0.852707    0.812242    0.979686   0.973941    1.148642
 7   6   1.290007    0.987937   1.118989    0.994843    1.036866   0.852707    0.979686
 8   6    1.59131    0.989218   1.361958    1.290007    0.942125   1.118989    1.036866
 9   6   1.085766    1.009147   0.905377     1.59131     0.89058   1.361958    0.942125
10   6   0.658724    1.011566   0.812998    1.085766    0.887019   0.905377     0.89058
11   6   0.918637    0.993625   1.031265    0.658724    0.863568   0.812998    0.887019
12   6    0.84153    1.001771   0.933632    0.918637    1.036528   1.031265    0.863568
13   6   0.979533    0.993249   0.941319     0.84153    1.042033   0.933632    1.036528
14   6   0.961674    0.999395   0.995538    0.979533    0.985126   0.941319    1.042033
15   6   1.104956    1.002056   1.266535    0.961674    1.091034   0.995538    0.985126
16   6   1.009535    1.018135   1.278727    1.104956    0.892373   1.266535    1.091034
17   6   1.206246    1.015915   1.475936    1.009535    0.974522   1.278727    0.892373
18   6   1.459818    0.980719   0.941955    1.206246    1.212514   1.475936    0.974522
19   6   1.367126    0.997914   1.151245    1.459818    0.965057   0.941955    1.212514
20   6   1.006068    1.007544   0.882213    1.367126    1.132321   1.151245    0.965057
 3   7   1.026793    1.000299   0.976689    1.101513    1.030026   0.986802    1.034433
 4   7   1.121609    1.000301   1.149216    1.026793    1.058579   0.976689    1.030026
 5   7      0.9126   1.008575   0.967929    1.121609    0.959759   1.149216    1.058579
 6   7    1.06307    0.996819   1.004042       0.9126   1.080139   0.967929    0.959759
 7   7   0.885725    1.009066   0.985593     1.06307     1.10132   1.004042    1.080139
 8   7   0.924757    1.007201   1.142875    0.885725    0.926429   0.985593     1.10132
 9   7   0.901661    1.003244   0.952708    0.924757    0.950542   1.142875    0.926429
10   7   0.946226    0.996743   0.903869    0.901661    0.931356   0.952708    0.950542
11   7    0.68637    1.016846   1.028058    0.946226     0.96315   0.903869    0.931356
12   7    0.49583    1.016558   0.844152     0.68637    1.015009   1.028058     0.96315
13   7   0.559733    1.007937   0.921424     0.49583    1.088292   0.844152    1.015009
14   7   0.716148     1.00545   1.062211    0.559733    0.981319   0.921424    1.088292
15   7   1.045294    0.987386   0.908586    0.716148    1.049658   1.062211    0.981319
16   7   0.747742    0.992248   0.454178    1.045294    1.002571   0.908586    1.049658
17   7   0.202993    1.007067    0.51851    0.747742    0.974522   0.454178    1.002571
18   7   0.125338    1.015831   0.820834    0.202993    0.878408    0.51851    0.974522
19   7    0.17561    1.021811   0.939345    0.125338    1.047668   0.820834    0.878408
20   7      0.5729   1.004525   1.116628     0.17561     0.86831   0.939345    1.047668
 3   8    1.05758    0.997312    1.01181    0.980154    0.986568   0.987929    0.981187
 4   8    0.90903    1.009346   1.075584     1.05758    0.962083    1.01181    0.986568
 5   8   1.261097    0.984956   1.072368     0.90903    0.806835   1.075584    0.962083
 6   8   1.095597    1.002604   1.044643    1.261097    1.052896   1.072368    0.806835
 7   8    1.38673    0.984926   1.094907    1.095597     1.03331   1.044643    1.052896
 8   8   1.144287    1.001199      0.9541    1.38673    1.075962   1.094907     1.03331
 9   8   1.259093    0.985576   0.932021    1.144287    0.985591      0.9541   1.075962
10   8   0.909885    1.005631   0.919179    1.259093    0.996875   0.932021    0.985591
11   8   0.774687    1.005222   0.931993    0.909885    0.973219   0.919179    0.996875
12   8   1.099799    0.987028   1.033518    0.774687    0.959488   0.931993    0.973219
13   8      1.2594   0.972759   0.816988    1.099799    0.795006   1.033518    0.959488
14   8   0.994082     0.99637   0.959175       1.2594   0.729097   0.816988    0.795006
15   8   0.561914    1.004996   0.726375    0.994082    0.812722   0.959175    0.729097
16   8   0.695049    1.006613   1.340276    0.561914    0.842327   0.726375    0.812722
17    8   0.699198   1.018868    1.208189    0.695049   0.957609   1.340276    0.842327
18    8   0.531253   1.009962    0.815349    0.699198   1.121229   1.208189    0.957609
19    8   0.847084   0.991957    0.905448    0.531253   1.138724   0.815349    1.121229
20    8   0.834797   1.001508    0.940928    0.847084    1.15067   0.905448    1.138724
 3    9   1.091696   0.997312       1.0084   1.052256   0.956371   1.016178    0.990826
 4    9   1.120259   0.994281    0.948294    1.091696   1.035435      1.0084   0.956371
 5    9   1.143645      0.9938   1.004114    1.120259   0.860558   0.948294    1.035435
 6    9   0.880603   1.011295    1.077362    1.143645   0.972041   1.004114    0.860558
 7    9    0.83845    1.00302    0.977138    0.880603   0.893082   1.077362    0.972041
 8    9   0.883808   0.992211    0.752957     0.83845   1.056622   0.977138    0.893082
 9    9   1.017512   1.000295    1.223257    0.883808   0.931529   0.752957    1.056622
10    9   1.285708   0.984916    1.035523    1.017512   0.887019   1.223257    0.931529
11    9   1.334492   0.987837    1.033672    1.285708   0.968182   1.035523    0.887019
12    9   1.226345   0.987028    0.813284    1.334492   0.912988   1.033672    0.968182
13    9   0.681448   1.022667    1.039864    1.226345   0.868569   0.813284    0.912988
14    9    0.58722   1.014545    0.995538    0.681448   1.008028   1.039864    0.868569
15    9   0.529648   1.010879    0.884582     0.58722    1.04051   0.995538    1.008028
16    9   0.881566   1.009491    1.413477    0.529648    1.19031   0.884582     1.04051
17    9   0.930818   1.007067    0.990044    0.881566   1.055651   1.413477     1.19031
18    9   0.971983   1.012896    1.205226    0.930818   1.115578   0.990044    1.055651
19    9   0.993001   1.003877     1.06855    0.971983   0.836997   1.205226    1.115578
20    9    1.13023   0.989458    0.929582    0.993001   0.792453    1.06855    0.836997
 3   10   0.986853   1.000299    0.980077    1.013706   0.977922   1.037755    0.990826
 4   10   1.285599   0.991273    1.180328    0.986853   0.966636   0.980077    0.977922
 5   10   0.771988   1.011535    0.809445    1.285599   0.787444   1.180328    0.966636
 6   10   0.413328   1.017096       0.7981   0.771988   1.025799   0.809445    0.787444
 7   10   0.654785           1   0.941596    0.413328   1.019108      0.7981   1.025799
 8   10   0.581243   1.004199    0.804905    0.654785   0.992689   0.941596    1.019108
 9   10   0.899416   0.994402    0.998031    0.581243   1.174551   0.804905    0.992689
10   10   0.919546   1.008598    1.143164    0.899416   1.056235   0.998031    1.174551
11   10    1.29694    0.99073    1.152221    0.919546   0.993418   1.143164    1.056235
12   10   1.174001   1.010638    1.201511     1.29694   1.123537   1.152221    0.993418
13   10   1.065974    1.01677    1.215161    1.174001   1.034364   1.201511    1.123537
14   10    0.95322    1.00848    0.953811    1.065974   0.898299   1.215161    1.034364
15   10   1.005114   0.993249    0.794753     0.95322   0.963415   0.953811    0.898299
16   10   0.904149    0.98938    0.691801    1.005114   0.951407   0.794753    0.963415
17   10   0.902624   0.980617    0.661578    0.904149   1.120638   0.691801    0.951407
18   10   0.835586   1.001171     0.98035    0.902624   0.948929   0.661578    1.120638
19   10   0.916649   1.000894    1.041573    0.835586   0.999312    0.98035    0.948929
20   10    0.90107   1.010564    1.188898    0.916649    0.90318   1.041573    0.999312
Arel2
 0.974596
 0.996951
 0.974431
 0.752681
 0.805954
 0.925807
 0.806455
  1.28655
  1.19887
 1.017618
 0.857076
 1.172872
 0.986641
 0.822857
 1.097755
 0.816362
 1.046154
 1.168615
 0.971094
 0.980047
 1.014085
 1.103571
 1.175262
 1.135135
 0.975261
 0.896849
 1.012819
 0.869054
 1.019248
 1.379919
 1.008926
 0.973958
 0.833534
 1.210026
 0.851293
 1.119429
 1.006224
 0.982298
 0.989123
 1.135748
 0.930811
 1.026332
 1.007266
 1.168936
 1.088674
 1.197276
1.004865
1.138418
1.081772
1.066322
1.350245
0.857781
1.009489
1.024758
 1.01328
0.980047
1.039171
0.831767
1.194081
0.975816
0.979955
0.840254
0.872873
0.977566
0.840838
0.775664
1.074225
0.991484
1.004028
0.843123
1.200595
0.964504
0.983947
1.019579
1.006129
1.038507
1.082195
1.172626
 1.12092
0.832919
0.831054
1.138585
1.109678
0.747982
 0.92456
1.187018
1.173286
1.186458
1.107862
0.974685
0.988628
 1.01278
1.000454
0.806522
0.973941
0.852707
1.118989
1.361958
0.905377
0.812998
1.031265
0.933632
0.941319
0.995538
1.266535
1.278727
1.475936
0.941955
1.070086
0.986802
0.976689
1.149216
0.967929
1.004042
0.985593
1.142875
0.952708
0.903869
1.028058
0.844152
0.921424
1.062211
0.908586
0.454178
 0.51851
0.820834
0.972261
0.987929
 1.01181
1.075584
1.072368
1.044643
1.094907
   0.9541
0.932021
0.919179
0.931993
1.033518
0.816988
0.959175
0.726375
1.340276
1.208189
0.815349
1.041603
1.016178
   1.0084
0.948294
1.004114
1.077362
0.977138
0.752957
1.223257
1.035523
1.033672
0.813284
1.039864
0.995538
0.884582
1.413477
0.990044
1.205226
0.979269
1.037755
0.980077
1.180328
0.809445
   0.7981
0.941596
0.804905
0.998031
1.143164
1.152221
1.201511
1.215161
0.953811
0.794753
0.691801
0.661578
 0.98035
       StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
             Analysis:   Regression
        Performed By:    B
                Date:    Saturday, March 08, 2008
            Updating:    Static


                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of
                                                    R-Square
Summary                         R                                R-Square      Estimate
                              0.9784                0.9572       0.9565      0.056084111

                             Degrees of             Sum of       Mean of
                                                                                F-Ratio       p-Value
ANOVA Table                   Freedom               Squares      Squares
Explained                        3             12.37952852     4.126509508    1311.9074      < 0.0001
Unexplained                     176            0.553595236     0.003145427

                                                    Standard                                  Lower         Upper
                             Coefficient                          t-Value       p-Value
Regression Table                                      Error                                    Limit        Limit
Constant                 16.18250441            0.44307772      36.5229       < 0.0001     15.30807529 17.05693353
NSOM1                     0.53214622           0.016422711      32.4031       < 0.0001     0.499735434 0.564557005
Prel                     -16.49558556          0.442800138      -37.2529      < 0.0001     -17.36946686 -15.62170426
Arel                     0.779148554           0.026979823      28.8789       < 0.0001     0.725902946 0.832394162
       StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
             Analysis:   Regression
        Performed By:    B
                Date:    Saturday, March 08, 2008
            Updating:    Static


                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of
                                                    R-Square
Summary                         R                                R-Square      Estimate
                              0.9932                0.9865       0.9859      0.03190622

                             Degrees of             Sum of       Mean of
                                                                                F-Ratio       p-Value
ANOVA Table                   Freedom               Squares      Squares
Explained                        7             12.75802658     1.822575225    1790.3369      < 0.0001
Unexplained                     172            0.175097182     0.001018007

                                                    Standard                                  Lower         Upper
                             Coefficient                          t-Value       p-Value
Regression Table                                      Error                                    Limit        Limit
Constant                 15.94723159           0.259761394      61.3918       < 0.0001       15.434501  16.45996218
NSOM1                    0.444773948           0.011004677      40.4168       < 0.0001     0.423052342 0.466495555
Prel                     -16.79336984          0.255932657      -65.6164      < 0.0001     -17.29854307 -16.28819661
Arel                       0.7312239           0.015568958      46.9668       < 0.0001     0.700493078 0.761954721
Arel1                    0.256960344           0.017241801      14.9033       < 0.0001     0.222927578 0.29099311
Rrel1                    0.178938881           0.026025688       6.8755       < 0.0001     0.127568021 0.230309742
Rrel2                    0.152087781           0.027751864       5.4803       < 0.0001     0.097309704 0.206865858
Arel2                    0.079412054           0.017024876       4.6645       < 0.0001     0.045807466 0.113016642

                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of       Entry
                                                    R-Square
Step Information                R                                R-Square      Estimate       Number
NSOM1                         0.7083                0.5017       0.4989      0.190277684        1
Prel                          0.8685                0.7544       0.7516      0.133971483        2
Arel                          0.9784                0.9572       0.9565      0.056084111        3
Arel1                         0.9881                0.9763       0.9758      0.041818133        4
Rrel1                         0.9912                0.9824       0.9819      0.036173117        5
Rrel2                         0.9923                0.9847       0.9842      0.033766134        6
Arel2                         0.9932                0.9865       0.9859       0.03190622        7
       StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
             Analysis:   Regression
        Performed By:    B
                Date:    Saturday, March 08, 2008
            Updating:    Static


                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of
                                                    R-Square
Summary                         R                                R-Square      Estimate
                              0.9932                0.9865       0.9859      0.03190622

                             Degrees of             Sum of       Mean of
                                                                                F-Ratio       p-Value
ANOVA Table                   Freedom               Squares      Squares
Explained                        7             12.75802658     1.822575225    1790.3369      < 0.0001
Unexplained                     172            0.175097182     0.001018007

                                                    Standard                                  Lower         Upper
                             Coefficient                          t-Value       p-Value
Regression Table                                      Error                                    Limit        Limit
Constant                 15.94723159           0.259761394      61.3918       < 0.0001       15.434501  16.45996218
NSOM1                    0.444773948           0.011004677      40.4168       < 0.0001     0.423052342 0.466495555
Prel                     -16.79336984          0.255932657      -65.6164      < 0.0001     -17.29854307 -16.28819661
Arel                       0.7312239           0.015568958      46.9668       < 0.0001     0.700493078 0.761954721
Arel1                    0.256960344           0.017241801      14.9033       < 0.0001     0.222927578 0.29099311
Rrel1                    0.178938881           0.026025688       6.8755       < 0.0001     0.127568021 0.230309742
Rrel2                    0.152087781           0.027751864       5.4803       < 0.0001     0.097309704 0.206865858
Arel2                    0.079412054           0.017024876       4.6645       < 0.0001     0.045807466 0.113016642

                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of      Enter or
                                                    R-Square
Step Information                R                                R-Square      Estimate         Exit
NSOM1                         0.7083                0.5017       0.4989      0.190277684      Enter
Prel                          0.8685                0.7544       0.7516      0.133971483      Enter
Arel                          0.9784                0.9572       0.9565      0.056084111      Enter
Arel1                         0.9881                0.9763       0.9758      0.041818133      Enter
Rrel1                         0.9912                0.9824       0.9819      0.036173117      Enter
Rrel2                         0.9923                0.9847       0.9842      0.033766134      Enter
       StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
             Analysis:   Regression
        Performed By:    B
                Date:    Saturday, March 08, 2008
            Updating:    Static


                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of
                                                    R-Square
Summary                         R                                R-Square      Estimate
                              0.9932                0.9865       0.9859      0.03190622

                             Degrees of             Sum of       Mean of
                                                                               F-Ratio        p-Value
ANOVA Table                   Freedom               Squares      Squares
Explained                        7             12.75802658     1.822575225   1790.3369       < 0.0001
Unexplained                     172            0.175097182     0.001018007

                                                    Standard                                  Lower         Upper
                             Coefficient                          t-Value      p-Value
Regression Table                                      Error                                    Limit        Limit
Constant                 15.94723159           0.259761394      61.3918       < 0.0001       15.434501  16.45996218
Prel                     -16.79336984          0.255932657      -65.6164      < 0.0001     -17.29854307 -16.28819661
Arel                       0.7312239           0.015568958      46.9668       < 0.0001     0.700493078 0.761954721
NSOM1                    0.444773948           0.011004677      40.4168       < 0.0001     0.423052342 0.466495555
Rrel1                    0.178938881           0.026025688       6.8755       < 0.0001     0.127568021 0.230309742
Arel1                    0.256960344           0.017241801      14.9033       < 0.0001     0.222927578 0.29099311
Rrel2                    0.152087781           0.027751864       5.4803       < 0.0001     0.097309704 0.206865858
Arel2                    0.079412054           0.017024876       4.6645       < 0.0001     0.045807466 0.113016642
       StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
             Analysis:   Regression
        Performed By:    B
                Date:    Saturday, March 08, 2008
            Updating:    Static


                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of
                                                    R-Square
Summary                         R                                R-Square      Estimate
                              0.9932                0.9865       0.9859      0.03190622

                             Degrees of             Sum of       Mean of
                                                                               F-Ratio        p-Value
ANOVA Table                   Freedom               Squares      Squares
Explained                        7             12.75802658     1.822575225   1790.3369       < 0.0001
Unexplained                     172            0.175097182     0.001018007

                                                    Standard                                  Lower         Upper
                             Coefficient                          t-Value      p-Value
Regression Table                                      Error                                    Limit        Limit
Constant                 15.94723159           0.259761394      61.3918       < 0.0001       15.434501  16.45996218
Prel                     -16.79336984          0.255932657      -65.6164      < 0.0001     -17.29854307 -16.28819661
Arel                       0.7312239           0.015568958      46.9668       < 0.0001     0.700493078 0.761954721
NSOM1                    0.444773948           0.011004677      40.4168       < 0.0001     0.423052342 0.466495555
Rrel1                    0.178938881           0.026025688       6.8755       < 0.0001     0.127568021 0.230309742
Arel1                    0.256960344           0.017241801      14.9033       < 0.0001     0.222927578 0.29099311
Rrel2                    0.152087781           0.027751864       5.4803       < 0.0001     0.097309704 0.206865858
Arel2                    0.079412054           0.017024876       4.6645       < 0.0001     0.045807466 0.113016642

                              Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of        Exit
                                                    R-Square
Step Information                R                                R-Square      Estimate       Number
All Variables                 0.9932                0.9865       0.9859      0.03190622
SEAS       PRD        Avg_Dem SeasIndex DeSeObs DeFcst  ReSeFcst Resid     FcstResid
       3         3        1202      0.89 1349.57 1447.58 1289.29    -87.29    130.77
       4         4        1482      0.88   1688.49   1510.35   1325.64   156.36    253.73
       1         5        1814      1.15   1577.19   1573.12   1809.32     4.68    -41.37
       2          6       1261      1.08   1165.98   1635.89   1769.20   -508.20   -369.26
       3          7       1840      0.89   2065.90   1698.66   1512.91    327.09    290.61
       4          8       1758      0.88   2002.95   1761.43   1546.02    211.98    184.05
       1          9       2227      1.15   1936.27   1824.20   2098.10    128.90    -74.16
       2         10       2174      1.08   2010.18   1886.97   2040.74    133.26     -0.39
       3         11       1438      0.89   1614.55   1949.74   1736.54   -298.54   -332.37
       4         12       1739      0.88   1981.30   2012.51   1766.39    -27.39    -53.67
       1         13       2580      1.15   2243.19   2075.28   2386.88    193.12   -131.54
       2         14       2742      1.08   2535.38   2138.05   2312.29    429.71    323.40
       3         15       1643      0.89   1844.72   2200.82   1960.16   -317.16   -131.54
       4         16       1546      0.88   1761.41   2263.59   1986.77   -440.77   -475.83
       1         17       2306      1.15   2004.96   2326.36   2675.66   -369.66   -102.85
       2         18       2441      1.08   2257.07   2389.13   2583.83   -142.83   -184.82
       3         19       2358      0.89   2647.50   2451.90   2183.79    174.21     97.98
       4         20       2505      0.88   2854.03   2514.67   2207.14    297.86    270.12
       1         21       2922      1.15   2540.54   2577.44   2964.44    -42.44     85.68
       2         22       3038      1.08   2809.08   2640.21   2855.37    182.63     85.68
       3         23       2395      0.89   2689.04   2702.98   2407.41    -12.41     85.68
       4         24       2430      0.88   2768.58   2765.75   2427.52      2.48     85.68
TotalFcst Err        Avg_Price Avg_Adv Avg_Adv1 Avg_RD1 Avg_Adv2 Avg_RD2
  1420.06    -218.06     371.9     97960   98370    25610   94670    22990
  1579.37    -97.37   368.9    84870    97960     24230    98370    25610
  1767.95     46.05   376.1    91860    84870     22000    97960    24230
  1399.94   -138.94   384.1    55000    91860     28930    84870    22000
  1803.53     36.47     368   117830    55000     31460    91860    28930
  1730.07     27.93   370.6    87950   117830     34930    55000    31460
  2023.94    203.06   376.9    90260    87950     34650   117830    34930
  2040.36    133.64   375.1    99820    90260     31990    87950    34650
  1404.17     33.83   383.2   139390    99820     21930    90260    31990
  1712.72     26.28   376.4    76500   139390     25950    99820    21930
  2255.34    324.66   378.3   104660    76500     29200   139390    25950
  2635.69    106.31   367.2    82130   104660     29090    76500    29200
  1828.62   -185.62   378.3    63470    82130     24510   104660    29090
  1510.94     35.06   386.7    44130    63470     25940    82130    24510
  2572.81   -266.81   377.6    45710    44130     26100    63470    25940
  2399.00     42.00   379.6    97630    45710     20130    44130    26100
  2281.77     76.23   372.7   129090    97630     32320    45710    20130
  2477.26     27.74   368.5    96670   129090     31140    97630    32320
  3050.12   -128.12     373   100000    96670     34730   129090    31140
  2941.05     96.95     373   100000   100000     25000    96670    34730
  2493.10    -98.10     373   100000   100000     25000   100000    25000
  2513.20    -83.20     373   100000   100000     25000   100000    25000
Se           140.71
                 Coefficient


Constant         15373.47
Avg_Price         -40.986




                                     DeSeObs
                                                         y = 62.77x + 1,259.27
  3000.00                                                      R² = 0.70

  2500.00

  2000.00

  1500.00                                                       DeSeObs

  1000.00                                                       Linear (DeSeObs)

   500.00

      0.00
             0     5           10   15   20    25   30
         StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
                   Analysis:                   Forecast
              Performed By:                    B
                      Date:                    Saturday, March 08, 2008
                  Updating:                    Live/Unlinked



Forecasting Constant
Span                                                                 3

                                                                                                         Deseason
Moving Averages                                                                                          Estimate
Mean Abs Err                                           #NAME?                                          #NAME?
Root Mean Sq Err                                       #NAME?                                          #NAME?
Mean Abs Per% Err                                      #NAME?                                          #NAME?

                                                                           Forecast and Original Observations
  3500.00

  3000.00

  2500.00

  2000.00

  1500.00
                                                                     StatTools Student Version                                                                                                                            Avg_Dem
                                                                                        For Academic Use Only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Forecast
  1000.00

   500.00

       0.00
                Q3-2003
                Q4-2003
                Q1-2004
                Q2-2004
                Q3-2004
                Q4-2004
                Q1-2005
                Q2-2005
                Q3-2005
                Q4-2005
                Q1-2006
                Q2-2006
                Q3-2006
                Q4-2006
                Q1-2007
                Q2-2007
                Q3-2007
                Q4-2007
                Q1-2008
                Q2-2008
                Q3-2008
                Q4-2008
                Q1-2009




                                                                                             Original Observations
  3500.00

  3000.00

  2500.00

  2000.00

  1500.00
                                                                     StatTools Student Version
                                                                                        For Academic Use Only
  1000.00

   500.00

       0.00
                 Q3-2003
                           Q4-2003
                                     Q1-2004
                                                 Q2-2004
                                                           Q3-2004
                                                                         Q4-2004
                                                                                   Q1-2005
                                                                                             Q2-2005
                                                                                                       Q3-2005
                                                                                                                 Q4-2005
                                                                                                                           Q1-2006
                                                                                                                                     Q2-2006
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                                                                                                                                                         Q4-2006
                                                                                                                                                                   Q1-2007
                                                                                                                                                                             Q2-2007
                                                                                                                                                                                       Q3-2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Q4-2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q1-2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q2-2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Q3-2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Q4-2008
                    2003
                                 2003
                                             2004
                                                       2004
                                                               2004
                                                                        2004
                                                                                  2005
                                                                                             2005
                                                                                                         2005
                                                                                                                      2005
                                                                                                                                   2006
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2008
                                                                                                     Forecast Errors
  1.00
  0.90
  0.80
  0.70
  0.60
  0.50
  0.40                                                                  StatTools Student Version
  0.30                                                                                For Academic Use Only
  0.20
  0.10
  0.00
          Q3-2003

                       Q4-2003

                                        Q1-2004

                                                    Q2-2004

                                                              Q3-2004

                                                                        Q4-2004

                                                                                   Q1-2005

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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Q1-2008

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Q2-2008
                                                                                                            Season                                             Deseason                                     Deseason                                           Deseason
Forecasting Data                                              Avg_Dem                                        Index                                             Avg_Dem                                       Forecast                                           Errors
Q3-2003                                                   1202.0000                                             0.89                                           1349.57
Q4-2003                                                   1482.0000                                             0.88                                           1688.49
Q1-2004                                                   1814.0000                                             1.15                                           1577.19
Q2-2004                                                   1261.0000                                             1.08                                           1165.98                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q3-2004                                                   1840.0000                                             0.89                                           2065.90                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q4-2004                                                   1758.0000                                             0.88                                           2002.95                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q1-2005                                                   2227.0000                                             1.15                                           1936.27                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q2-2005                                                   2174.0000                                             1.08                                           2010.18                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q3-2005                                                   1438.0000                                             0.89                                           1614.55                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q4-2005                                                   1739.0000                                             0.88                                           1981.30                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q1-2006                                                   2580.0000                                             1.15                                           2243.19                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q2-2006                                                   2742.0000                                             1.08                                           2535.38                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q3-2006                                                   1643.0000                                             0.89                                           1844.72                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q4-2006                                                   1546.0000                                             0.88                                           1761.41                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q1-2007                                                   2306.0000                                             1.15                                           2004.96                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q2-2007                                                   2441.0000                                             1.08                                           2257.07                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q3-2007                                                   2358.0000                                             0.89                                           2647.50                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q4-2007                                                   2505.0000                                             0.88                                           2854.03                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q1-2008                                                   2922.0000                                             1.15                                           2540.54                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q2-2008                                                   3038.0000                                             1.08                                           2809.08                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q3-2008                                                   2395.0000                                             0.89                                           2689.04                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q4-2008                                                   2430.0000                                             0.88                                           2768.58                                      #NAME?                                             #NAME?
Q1-2009                                                                                                         1.15                                                                                        #NAME?
 Season     Season
Forecast    Errors




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   StatTools (Core Analysis Pack)
          Analysis:   Regression
     Performed By:    B
             Date:    Saturday, March 08, 2008
         Updating:    Static


                           Multiple                           Adjusted       StErr of
                                                 R-Square
Summary                      R                                R-Square      Estimate
                           0.8378                0.7019       0.6870      144.1835711

                          Degrees of             Sum of       Mean of
                                                                             F-Ratio       p-Value
ANOVA Table                Freedom               Squares      Squares
Explained                     1             979000.9669     979000.9669     47.0925       < 0.0001
Unexplained                   20            415778.0433     20788.90216

                                                 Standard                                  Lower         Upper
                          Coefficient                          t-Value       p-Value
Regression Table                                   Error                                    Limit        Limit
Constant              15373.46635           2240.487801       6.8617       < 0.0001     10699.89069    20047.042
Avg_Price             -40.98601401          5.972551475       -6.8624      < 0.0001     -53.44453807 -28.52748994
SEAS       PRD        Avg_Dem Avg_Price Avg_Adv Avg_Adv1 Avg_RD1 Avg_Adv2 Avg_RD2
       3          3       1202    371.9     97960   98370    25610   94670    22990
       4          4       1482    368.9     84870   97960    24230   98370    25610
       1          5       1814    376.1     91860   84870    22000   97960    24230
       2          6       1261    384.1     55000   91860    28930   84870    22000
       3          7       1840      368    117830   55000    31460   91860    28930
       4          8       1758    370.6     87950  117830    34930   55000    31460
       1          9       2227    376.9     90260   87950    34650  117830    34930
       2         10       2174    375.1     99820   90260    31990   87950    34650
       3         11       1438    383.2    139390   99820    21930   90260    31990
       4         12       1739    376.4     76500  139390    25950   99820    21930
       1         13       2580    378.3    104660   76500    29200  139390    25950
       2         14       2742    367.2     82130  104660    29090   76500    29200
       3         15       1643    378.3     63470   82130    24510  104660    29090
       4         16       1546    386.7     44130   63470    25940   82130    24510
       1         17       2306    377.6     45710   44130    26100   63470    25940
       2         18       2441    379.6     97630   45710    20130   44130    26100
       3         19       2358    372.7    129090   97630    32320   45710    20130
       4         20       2505    368.5     96670  129090    31140   97630    32320
       1         21       2922      373    100000   96670    34730  129090    31140

								
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