fiber optics forecast

ELECTRONICAST CONSULTANTS Announces an analysis and 5-year forecast of the market consumption value of Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Summary America Europe Asia Pacific (APAC) Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Forecast RELEASED: JUNE 2007 – This 225 page report presents a five-year (2006-2011) global consumption value market forecast of fiber optic component-level attenuators used in communication applications. This study is one of several reports from ElectroniCast Consultants’ series of studies covering optical signal processing passive components. The report forecasts the consumption trends, in terms of $, millions, of the following types of component-level optical attenuators: Fixed Panel Mount/Bulkhead Attenuators Jumper Assembly/In-Line Fixed Attenuators Manually-Controlled Variable Optical Attenuators Electronically Variable Optical Attenuators (EVOAs) Typically, either a fixed or variable optical attenuator is generally placed before a receiver to adjust optical power that otherwise might fluctuate over a wide spectrum of the receiver’s design, thereby causing errors. Additionally, Variable Optical Attenuators (VOAs) are used for variable gain control applications in optical amplifiers and power equalization in DWDM networks. Electronically controlled variable optical attenuators (EVOAs), in 2006 represented 60 percent of Global consumption value. Telecommunications Leads in Fiber Optic Attenuator Consumption The global consumption value of fiber optic attenuators is forecasted to increase at an average annual growth rate of 11.25 percent over the 2006-2011 forecast period. The global Total Available Market (TAM) and value of component-level fiber optic attenuators used in selected optical communication applications, including: Telecommunications Private Networks CATV Military/Aerospace Specialty ) Proposal for Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Consumption Value Forecast Table of Contents (Outline) 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Fiber Optic Attenuators Overview 1.2 Optical Fiber Amplifier & DWDM Components Overview 1.3 Broadband and FTTP Overview 1.4 Fiber Optics Industry Overview 1.4.1 Boom, Bust and the Recovery 1.4.2 Fiber Optics Industry: Decade-to-Decade 2. Fiber Optic Attenuator Market Forecast 2.1 Fiber Optic Attenuators Market by Type 2.2 Attenuator Technology Review 2.3 Fiber Optic Attenuators By End-User (Application) 3. High Speed Optical Communication Trends 3.1 Overview 3.2 Fiber Network Technology Trends 3.3 Components 3.3.1 Overview 3.3.2 Transmitters & Receivers 3.3.3 Optical Amplifiers 3.3.4 Dispersion Compensators 3.3.5 Fiber Cable 3.4 Devices & Parts 3.4.1 Overview 3.4.2 Emitters & Detectors 3.4.3 VCSEL & Transceiver Technology Review 3.4.4 Optoelectronic ASICs 3.4.5 Modulators 3.4.6 Packages 3.4.7 OEICs 3.5 Europe 3.6 Rest of World Competitive Analysis & Profiles 4.1 Selected List of Competitors 4.2 Market Share Estimate (2006): Fiber Optic Attenuators Methodology 5.1 Research and Analysis Methodology 5.2 Assumptions of Fiber Optic Component Global Market Forecast Definitions 6.1 Acronyms, Abbreviations, and General Terms 6.2 Data Base Category Definitions Market Forecast Data Base 7.1 Overview 7.2 Tutorial Note: The database Microsoft Excel spreadsheets (detail market forecast, in terms of value, quantity and price per unit) is located in report number 4007 (only). 4. 5. 6. 7. www.electronicastconsultants.com thosking@electronicastconsultants.com 2 Proposal for Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Consumption Value Forecast —— METHODOLOGY —— In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, Electronicast Consultants combines several techniques: Product consumption and production history is determined by: • • Interviews of the leading product or service users and producers ("dual track" primary research) Secondary research (a review of published information, including industry, data, technical papers, financial reports) This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service: value, price trends, application trends, leading producers and their market shares. This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually for over 15-years, but mainly from the last 24 months. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performed a large number of interviews, both by telephone and in-person, with authoritative and representative individuals in the fiber optics, telecommunications, datacom, cable TV and other communication industries, from the standpoint of both suppliers and users of fiber optics. The interviews were conducted principally with: • Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of fiber optic attenuators, optical fiber amplifiers, DWDM, Optical Add/Drops, isolators, couplers and other related passive and active optical components. Engineers, marketing, purchasing personnel and market planners at major users of passive optical components, such as telecommunication transmission, switching, distribution and apparatus equipment, regional and interexchange telephone companies, alternative local carriers, data communications equipment companies, cable TV system suppliers, military/aerospace OEMs, utilities and a number of other end users of fiber optic components and technology. • The interviews covered issues of technology, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics. The long-range forecast is based upon the following sequence: 1. The advancement of technology of the product, competing products and the end applications is forecasted based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field. The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following perspectives: • Real value to user, determined by user interviews • Displacement of competing products • Creation of new markets The production of the end-use equipments or systems is forecasted. Production costs, and thus minimum pricing, of the product at various quantity levels are analyzed. The demand forecast is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application analysis. 2. 3. 4. 5. www.electronicastconsultants.com thosking@electronicastconsultants.com 3 Proposal for Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Consumption Value Forecast The analysis of cost-effectiveness and understanding of the user perception of risk of the product provide insight into the rate of penetration of the product into the various end applications at its minimum profitable price. Input/output analysis applies the penetration forecasts to the end-application production forecasts to provide a cross-check of the product consumption forecast. Forecasted imports and exports, inventory change, R&D use, and other non-production markets to derive the total production forecast then adjust this consumption forecast. Finally, by user interviews, the production forecasts are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus available (merchant) market. ——— PROGRAM TEAM ——— Stephen Montgomery, BA, MBA/Technology Management. Mr. Montgomery has specialized in communication network products and services demand forecasting since 1990. Mr. Montgomery is the Director of the Fiber Optics Components group and the Network Communication Products group at Electronicast Consultants and heads the Asia Pacific regional office in Tokyo. He also is the Director of several conferences. He has given numerous presentations and published a number of articles on optical fiber markets, technology, applications and installations. He is a member of the Editorial Advisory Board of Lightwave magazine. —— CONTINUING COMMITMENT —— Electronicast Consultants is committed to continuing research and forecasting in broadband networks and products, photonics and fiber optics technologies, and their markets, as well as research in related areas. Other related programs include:                         Passive Optical Components Market Forecast Service Optoelectronic Integrated Circuits Forecast Optoelectronic ASICs Forecast Optoelectronic Packages and Packaging Forecast Automated Assembly and Test of Fiber Optic Components Forecast Broadband-To-The-Premise Fiber Optic Components Forecast Fiber Optic Installation Apparatus Forecast Optoelectronics (Transmitter/Receivers Interphase Modules) Market Forecast 10 Gbps DataCom Transceivers Optical Fiber Amplifier, Gain Blocks and Components Forecast Fiber Optic Couplers/DWDM Dense WDM Filter Modules Global Market Forecast Internal Optical Interconnects Market Forecast Planar Waveguide Circuits Forecast VCSEL Market Forecast 40 Gbps. Superdata Forecast Storage Area Networks Forecast Fiber Optic Cable (Glass & Plastic) Market Forecast Fiber Optic Connector Market Forecast Communication Laser Market Forecasts Optical Add/Drop Multiplexers Market Forecast Photonic Switch Technology and Market Forecast WDM, TDM & Fiber Global Markets & Technology Forecast Pump Laser Diodes Market Forecast These network programs have been supported by Electronicast’s communication network component and system studies, and numerous special studies. www.electronicastconsultants.com thosking@electronicastconsultants.com 4 Proposal for Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Consumption Value Forecast —— DELIVERABLES and FEE —— Market Forecast Report: ElectroniCast provides full report text on the product market forecast in Adobe Acrobat (PDF) on CD. Subscription: The fee for this report is $4,995. ——— QUALIFICATIONS OF ELECTRONICAST ——— Electronicast is uniquely qualified to undertake this project. Its activities in analyzing the technologies and markets for fiber optics have given it unparalleled component and application databases. Their detailed and diligent researches have provided the basis for projects of unusual complexity. Electronicast's Fiber Optics analysis and Telecom Network forecasts are widely utilized in strategic planning at the world's major telecommunications and data communications companies with significant investments in lightwave technology. Specialized communications and fiber optics trade press often cite by leading business publications and Electronicast’s fiber optics forecasts and analyses. ——— ABOUT ELECTRONICAST ——— Electronicast specializes in forecasting for the communication network, fiber optic, optoelectronic and photonic industries. This includes technology forecasting, markets and applications forecasting, strategic planning and consulting. Electronicast conducts both multiclient studies and custom, focused singleclient studies. Electronicast, as a technology-based independent forecasting firm, serves industrial companies, trade associations, government agencies, telecommunications companies and the financial community. Reduction of the risk of major investment decisions is the main benefit provided. Electronicast's goal is to understand the challenges and opportunities facing clients and to provide timely, accurate information for strategic planning. ——— RESEARCH AREAS ——— Electronicast covers all areas of the data and communication industries and fields impacted by communications, including:     Systems and networks Equipment and subsystems Components and devices Materials and parts/devices Most of the Electronicast projects are in the data communication, telecommunication networks and services, fiber optics, and photonics fields. www.electronicastconsultants.com thosking@electronicastconsultants.com 5 Proposal for Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Consumption Value Forecast Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Forecast Service Agreement The undersigned hereby authorizes and directs ELECTRONICAST CONSULTANTS to furnish research and consulting service necessary to prepare the multiclient service Fiber Optic Attenuators Global Market Forecast for the base fee of US$4,995. Subscription: The fee for this report is $4,995 (each). Standard Subscriber (Text) _____ Text (only) $4,995 TOTAL $4,995 $_____ $_____ PAYMENT TERMS: Payment due upon receipt of invoice. No material contained in the report or any other information however acquired from ELECTRONICAST CONSULTANTS by the undersigned may be reproduced in whole or in part, nor distributed in original or reproduced form, by any means or in any form, outside the undersigned's organization employees without prior written consent of ELECTRONICAST CONSULTANTS. Electronicast Consultants, in addition to multiclient programs, conducts proprietary custom studies for single clients in all areas of management planning and interest. Other independent consultants, therefore, are considered directly competitive. Electronicast Consultants proprietary information may not be provided to such consultants without Electronicast Consultants’ written permission. Signature Name Company Address (Street, P.O. Box) City/State/Country/Postal Code Telephone E-mail address Purchase Order # *All fees are subject to adjustment. CONTACT: ELECTRONICAST CONSULTANTS 9949 Old Orchard Lane Upper Lake, CA 95485 USA Phone: 707/275-9397 Fax: 707/275-9502 Website: www.electronicastconsultants.com thosking@electronicastconsultants.com Date Title Division FAX www.electronicastconsultants.com thosking@electronicastconsultants.com 6