President Palin? Flip a Coin Vice Presidents are an underappreciated lot. Like most second chairs, silver medalists, and runners-up, though they appear on the same stage as the President, no one really pays much attention to them. This is partially because the only power the Vice President actually has is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate, which usually follows party lines. Woo. Hoo. As a result, Presidential running mates are often chosen not for their leadership abilities, understanding of national and international issues, or personal charisma, but as a way to “complete" the President's image to voters, by complementing some of their better qualities, or deemphasizing their weaknesses. It's a little like picking out a necktie that makes your eyes look really good, only the necktie walks around the country saying nice things about you. Nobody really worries about what a Vice President might do with power, because they don't have any, as long as everything goes well. What is often overlooked in the hustle and bustle of trying to appeal to certain segments of voters is the fact that the Vice President has the very real duty to lead the country if the President dies or is removed from office. One out of every five Presidents in this country has failed to complete their term due to natural death, assassination, or political intrigue. Each time, the second stringer suddenly found themselves in charge of, well, everything. There's a good chance that this could happen again. Consider Senator Obama, male, 47 years old. Actuaries (statistical brainiacs who calculate life expectancies) tell us that your average 47-year-old man has a 95% chance of being alive on Inauguration Day 2017, the end of a two term presidency. 1 However, because one in nine Presidents has been either assassinated or forced out of office, 2 Senator Obama, if elected for two terms, has a 16% chance of not making it. If Obama is elected President, Senator Biden will probably never have any serious power beyond advising and assisting the President, but at 16%, you'd better hope that this talking necktie is ready to run and defend the country, just in case. With Senator McCain, the numbers are a bit more substantial. A 72 year-old man has a 63% chance of living until he's 80. Not bad. However, with assassination and impeachment risk, that drops down to 55%. Unfortunately, because of the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease among even wealthy seniors, there is also a 9% chance that a sharpwitted 72-year-old man will develop moderate to severe cognitive impairment by the time he turns 80.3 If Senator McCain tries for two full terms in office, there is only a 51%
1 2
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html 4 out of 43 presidents assassinated, plus Nixon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Presidents_of_the_United_States 3 See Hugh C. Hendrie, M.B., Ch.B., Epidemiology of Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease, Am J Geriatr Psychiatry 6:S3-S18, May 1998 (4.7% of people 71-75 moderately to severely impaired, 13.6% of people 76-80, 20.1% of people 81-85, implies roughly 8.9% of 76-80 year olds were not previously moderately to severely impaired. ; see also Chrislopher M. Callahan, MD; Hugh C. Hcndric, MB. ChB; and William M. Tierney. MD, Documentation and Evaluation of Cognitive Impairment in Elderly Primary Care Patients Ann Intern Med. 1995:122:422-429 (18.2%-27.3% of people in their 70s experience mild to severe cognitive impairment); Mayo Clinic Study of Aging, (about 3.5% of individuals
chance that he makes it all the way through. That gives Governor Palin a 49% chance of becoming the next, next president of the United States. This is not to say that Obama and McCain should not be elected just because they could die in office. FDR, who is considered one of our greatest Presidents, died in office, was succeeded by Harry Truman, who presided over the end of World War II, and was responsible for the Berlin Airlift. However, given the very real chance that Senator Biden or Governor Palin could become the President of the United States, America has to take a good look at each of them, and ask themselves, "Do I want this person running this country?" For Senator Biden, the chances are one in six. For Governor Palin, flip a coin.
in their 70s developed mild cognitive impairment after one year. Rates for men are twice as high as rates for women) http://seniorjournal.com/NEWS/Alzheimers/2008/20080729-MayoClinicFinds.htm