Reprint article zt Futures
Enlightenment of the futures of people can understand it &quot;
f22f117a on June 23, 2007 letter and information, ZHANG Yi-order
Trader is not a good view of the operator instead.
We can not accurately know the future.
Rather wrong, can not let market.
Greedy futures should do.
Open the backhand.
Futures do not need too much thinking, just any futures who do not understand a few
hours so that he can learn to stable profitability.
Do not need to read the tape in the long term.
The most important discipline.
View of the wrong is not important, the operation does not need our views, our views
often interference harmful to the operation.
Wave theory of home leave.
The mentality of the so-called poor excuse but you still do not understand.
Stable profitable operation of his 10 losses are often 5 times or more, there are 10
losses 9 times.
98% of the book is to teach you lose money, and really something to make money a
piece of paper to write dissatisfaction.
All nonsense attitude, personality, human nature is ridiculous, useless talk Sha
Operation by emotional escape from death, by a sense plate, by analysis, judged by
the main force, could not escape a storm by fundamentals
Understand the ways to ways to get your money, you can do nothing.
No prediction, but the need to prepare.
Master of the future do not know, ask him master a blind market always look of
course, will not do that, will say clearly and logically will not do. Like Yao, he will
not like the guide said that the ceiling random drunk, but he will play, tactical guide
that clearly and logically, you allow him to try basketball court inside, said more
loudly, more quote the classics, and fight worsen .
Of course most people are wrong, because 98% of the book is to teach you lose
money and not teach you to make money, and really can make money also will be
able to finish a few papers, the harder the more you lose money. We all read the same
book, learning the techniques of the same, of course, pay the same money. A little
mind good, 98% are losing money futures market, which of course are learning the
same, you lose the.
Most of you understand the indicators useless, the way no one understands you
willing to teach.
Only your own is you can distinguish between those who master master.
These you to know, you, I know all understand much, and information on 10 people
&quot;I just do not see why you would lose money&quot;
f22f117a written on March 6, 2007, Zhang Yi finishing
If you had been a soldier psychological strength, then one day I can teach you to make
money. Futures is the most difficult to do but it is also the simplest. The way to tell a
fifth grade student to do well Bibo Shi, simply no-brainer, also the fifth grade of
culture on the line. Need 7-8 years to find ways to learn methods as long as 1 hour. I
just do not understand why you will lose money.
Author: guorongqi on July 21, 2006 published in the
http://futures.bbs.hexun.com/vie ... = 6 &amp; aid = 31135514
Today, happy, bear to see so many people trying to explore was condemned to a life
can not succeed. Good people to perception fewer detours.
Honestly tell you that there is such a trading system can make money. But I can not
say that just remind you, the transaction system is divided into oscillatory and
trend-based trading systems trading system. Oscillatory trading system can be more
than 70 per cent success rate, but can not make money, oscillatory long-term stable
trading system can not make money, often several times not to win a little money
arrived in the last loss a lot of money. Therefore, the success rate of over 70% lose
money. Means mechanical trading systems. Are mechanical trading systems to. Do
not judge that person, trend-based trading system less than 50 per cent success rate, if
more than 50 percent over-optimization will lose money, mainly by a few more pens
arrived in large profit losses. That is burned by a small win to earn the vast majority
of people to pursue more than 50% success rate trading system is actually wrong type
can make money trading systems trend will be less than 50 per cent success rate. This
means that most of his life in the futures market are wrong, but all failed. And
information forums, most people do not know the truth transaction is doomed for life,
can succeed. If you know his systems Zhang Qi to make money, you are more
receptive to signals, and at a loss for the period by the system Xinhao transactions. If
you rely on their own in the transaction to judge, you may find that just when you
should be brave but timid, but rather should be careful when you are daring.
If you have a mechanical trading system at work and you follow it consistently, then,
although it may have come from a long list of huge amounts of profit or loss on the
inner struggle, your transaction will be the same. Self-confidence, consistency, and by
the thorough testing of mechanical trading system had to ensure discipline, the
majority of traders to profit the key to success.
According to the fundamentals sometimes big money, sometimes big money loss.
Sometimes analysis, but a secondary market to adjust enough to kill you.
Fundamentals can not make money under the long-term stability.
Quotes can not be accurately forecast, we can not know exactly what happened
tomorrow. Do not forecast market transactions, as long as the following quotes. Most
of the people on the forums every day forecast tomorrow in the market place, thinking
is wrong. Mechanical trading systems do not need people to judge the more the better,
can be made better program, Road to the simple, mechanical trading systems as
simple as possible.
Gave away the secret: Technical Analysis of the ultimate truth, the orthodox technical
analysis is never predict the market price. It is significant scope, given only a
probability analysis, technical indicators from a larger perspective, nothing more than
that two completely opposite ideas. One is the trend of thought; one is thinking of
finishing the former is the use of the system led to average &quot;trend
indicators&quot;; the latter is the use of indicators led to kdj
&quot;overbought oversold&quot; indicators. I am not saying that the
technical indicators are the high sampling can not increase the accuracy. But the more
accurate indicator of the stability of the worse! A little time goes by, the slightest
change in the market, this technology out of the market index will be! Perhaps this out
indicators on research and development stage in the same time! Fuzzy and defects
may be more than perfect last forever! Einstein said that the formula can predict the
future there is bound to the uncertainty!
Of course, can make money trading system is not open, we all use a public, not to
make money was.
Well, do not say too much, so we had 7-8 years to find ways to make money, and go
back and look at what I said right, you will realize the above reason.
Very disappointed, very few people read this post, only very few people ask questions.
But Ye Hao, who know the truth the less the better deal. Really understand the people
already making money. Do not use the Forum came.
I am far from good! But do not want more retail in the futures, fallen!
The proportion of 2 per thousand, ah, that is 1,000 people inside the expense of 998.
Can not read this post long-term stability in the futures market to make money,
preferably away from the futures market. The particularity of the decision itself
futures futures only for very few people.
Most people involved in futures only at the expense of most of the cost. Results are
countless losses. I figure a little, no one is profitable. Are losses, but the amount of
loss only, but the outcomes are miserable. Friends, out of futures, instead of indulging
in this gambling game down, and quickly quit the drug hidden. Exception of those
who read this post.
Correct view the transaction
http://futures.bbs.hexun.com/vie ... = 6 &amp; aid = 33760077
These are didiway on March 30, 2008 and information published in the Forum article.
I 100% agree, it is reproduced.
Some people often see technical analysis is very confused, feel a lot of book reading,
learning a lot of average, KDJ, channels, forms, etc., but also learn a lot of ideas,
homeopathic, wet storage, long-term , and so on, all transactions to be versatile to
learn about it, so why make today, tomorrow, always losses, over time the math
general ledger, it actually has suffered? I think this is the problem faced by many
traders, the look is read, the school&#39;s all learned, bought a lot of books that
do not make money! This in the end Why? !
To answer this question, first of all must be out of the two universal cognitive errors,
out of a misunderstanding, to close to the truth:
First: the nature of technical analysis is the analysis of uncertainty is a probability of!
Some people learn the point of technical analysis, a look at K line graph, Oh, KDJ is
90, and in accordance with the book says, and has been overbought, and shorting!
Some see a big Yinxian high, Oh, this is not a book on the standard
&quot;engulfing&quot; What? Down the sign ah, short selling! This will
enter into a misunderstanding, because technical analysis is not
&quot;OK&quot; in the analysis, there would not say what form, how
would definitely go, KDJ to 90, but also to 95, even 100, and high passive! After the
first broken foot wear is also possible to open higher the next day and going all the
technical analysis can only tell you how to get the most likely next step, but it will not
be how to get! Knowing this, you will not see a form, enter the full confidence of the
killing, the result does not in accordance with the technical analysis of the market,
said the situation above, go, you&#39;ll depressed &quot;on the failure of
the technology of ye out?&quot; In fact, technical analysis does not fail, he said,
has always been a possibility, not necessarily!
Second: the results can not be judged good or bad decision!
Trading is full of uncertainty, so even if the wrong decisions, and sometimes make
you money, such as the stock market in recent years, &quot;dead cover
their&quot; novice have earned a lot the first two years, but because the veteran
experienced a bear market, stronger risk awareness, so often in the callback 被震 out!
Past two years of results, the strategy novice better results than the old hand, it is not
new to making decisions than the veteran is better? The past six months, there is risk
awareness of veteran basically fled the top, while those &quot;dead cover
their&quot; new to it? Most losses!
Out after two errors, we must speak out my core point: with the consistency of
transactions to profit!
First of all, to understand the micro-speaking market, price fluctuations are chaotic,
confusing! (Macro or ordered, such as inflation or lead to such a big bull market
traced, but there are several people on line with the deal? So I only talk about
micro-market) price fluctuations in disorderly we can not grasp, Therefore, we must
build a framework to price fluctuations in disordered into an ordered framework, this
time the best technical analysis is that we help, it says is the essence of the technical
analysis of the probability analysis, so the use technical analysis results, we can
structure a high probability trading, price volatility if there disorderly set of trading in
our form, we stand side of the high probability trading, so price fluctuations in
disorderly , create our own &quot;order&quot;! Of course, this may be a
loss you will, but like I said in the second misunderstanding, you are in a correct way
to deal with, even if a loss, your decision is correct (in the world no one can avoid
loss), as long as you adhere to it, and win more lose less is an inevitable result!
This kind of &quot;consistency transaction&quot; to the limit, when the
formation of a fully mechanized on the trading system, when you really stand the
market test of the formation of a mechanical trading system, you will have a real
physical and mental liberation, the real relax, because you know you
&quot;tomorrow&quot; will make money, because you price fluctuations in
the disorder has been established in your own &quot;order&quot;, your
future decisions and your decisions past and present 100% exactly the same, so the
profitability of your past and will continue to extend into the future! Consistency in
decision-making, leading to the inevitability of the result! And rely on subjective
decision-making, analysis and decision of Ren, always living in a tension and fear,
because they do not know what made money, now make money in the future can not
continue to make money? ! Because their decisions have a great
&quot;uncertainty&quot; So the result is the same as their future great
I said, consistency is not a separate transaction that refers to the consistency of Bill ?
William profit law! Your understanding is too one-sided it! What I mean is that the
way the transaction to maintain consistency, not tomorrow, today, as varied trading
systems, what are, turtle trading rules, moving average trading rules, Alexander the
Triple Screen trading system, or even Livermore In fact, the level of use is also a
point of breakthrough in the system, the most important thing is that this trading
system to match your personality, otherwise you do not have executive power, do not
I used to be done, it suffered a major loss, as to why can not many reasons, but can be
summarized in one word, is &quot;human nature&quot;, was hard to
basically can do it! But still occasionally itchy, do some days, but not much use of the
funds, independent of the overall situation!
Speaking of human nature, and think I just started using mechanical trading system,
when, when I chose the rubber as the transaction volume, transactions in full
accordance with the system, the result a loss of 5 consecutive times, I had to be crazy,
continuous stop-loss, and finally After the fifth stop, I carry to continue, abandon this
trading system, started not in accordance with the system transactions, according to its
own analysis, the system gives the sixth trading signals I have not accepted, the result
is that the Sixth times of the transaction, I did not adopt the transaction, a profit of
almost 5 times in front of the losses are made up, but I did not deal! I was heart pain
ah ... ... so that mechanical trading systems, sometimes that is a destruction of human
nature, and you know the deal Sometimes a loss, just like you see in front of a falling
knife, you can escape, but you choose to hide or not hide? This is a painful choice!
Most trading systems do not consider the fundamentals of information, as you say can
not be quantified, it is not considered! Some systems may need volume, but I know
most of the trading system do not need! Most systems consider only price! As
indicators of price change is coming!
In fact most of the trading systems are simple! Simple drive it, but you have to learn
the principle of car, own a car made out, it was not simple!
The density of the signal depends on the time structure you use the same trading
system, you use the above chart on K and K in the 60-minute chart on the use of the
signal density of course a big difference! If you feel that transaction costs effects on
your system had an impact, you can use the higher level of time structure, it is natural
to solve this problem!
About mechanical trading systems on the market there are many such books have
been bought, others have lots to talk about what a book, nor is it clear I can say at
once! Overall trading system must be tested, and very strict testing, without rigorous
testing, you will have blind spots, these blind spots can sometimes cause trouble with
you! For example, you design a trading system, at least you should understand his
loss-limit, the maximum time to achieve what extent? ! Test cycle should be long
enough to signal the number to as much as possible, the general view should be not
less than 30 times the signal structure of the statistics, and my trading system, I passed
at least 100 times the results of the statistical trading signals! And to cross-species
cross-cycle test! Is a good trading system should be applied to any cycle of any
On the position, that is, money management problems, as I have eaten such a loss, the
system right, but you too under the note, just run into consecutive losses, it is in big
trouble, I have tested my own trading system, the price of rubber in the last three
years, the use of my system, when the most serious loss of 2200 points will run into a
row! This is the biggest loss of my system degree, if I use 50% of the funds to trading
of rubber, the consequences are unimaginable! Who can bear half of the funds
I now use the money management strategy is to trade six unrelated species, each
species into 10% of the funds to a portfolio, so good to resolve the risk, since I use
this money management strategy after the funding retracement percentage greatly
reduced, and more recently maintained for 6 months the monthly earnings (average of
not less than 10%) of the performance! So money management is also a very
important trading system, then use the basic need to analyze the trend of each species,
so funds can be distributed as much as possible, so as to achieve steady growth of
Most of them can be foreign, domestic majority can not only send a transaction signal,
the next one or to yourself, not necessarily only be said to be compiled into program
trading mechanical systems, as long as it is an objective trading rules and can be
programmed (made of procedure do not have to), then this is a mechanical trading
system! Interested in mechanical trading systems on the friends can buy CITIC
Publishing House&#39;s &quot;turtle trading rules,&quot; Look, this
book will be a little more clear, in fact, should even a mechanized Dennis the
originator of the transaction it!
Esteem of the mechanized trading systems because of LTCM and reached a peak, but
I think the failure of LTCM was not the fault of the mechanical trading system, but his
position is too large, excessive use of leverage, with billions of dollars in capital
operation of the hundreds of billions of position, the risk of already great, not to
mention his almost open trading rules, we all know where his stop, so a large piece of
fat meat, we of course want to hit his stop, the He ate!
Financial empire on the average system explained
Author financial empire in 2008 published in the http://jrdg.uueasy.com/index.php,
Futures markets are zero-sum game, losers into winners pocket the money necessary. I
came to the futures market is not long, no statistics on how high the failure rate. But I
think more than 80% should be no problem ... ... we do not feel that interesting? To
know that these &quot;losers skills&quot; do not need training! ! Why do
most people lose money? This comes from a human instinct. Instead it is the way to
win and instincts! We are pursuing the correct rate, you better the odds to pursue; we
all like to deliver profits to lengthen loss, your loss on the cash Put profits like a ... ...
interesting? This is the trend tracking system! ! Of course, the question of human
instinct in many aspects, but these are the most intuitive and most obvious.
Good system must have the following characteristics:
First, for any parameter. Systematic way to win from what you said to understand the
market, or what I call the trading philosophy, rather than rely on parameters of the
problem. Not consider transaction costs in the situation, any parameter of moving
average are possible!
Secondly, the second, must be simple. The more complex the system, the greater the
probability of problems. Or, to adapt to the market over-the suspect! When the market
changes, complex systems will be vulnerable.
Thirdly, the third, the function must not contain the future. Some people say throw
buy low, sell high-order market, trends, market lengthen profits. These are not
possible to know in advance! You better this way, do more up market, down market
short. Right? Do not fool yourself ... ... shares desires long life, non-Wen Road, is also
difficult, enlightenment will be difficult indeed. Non-enlightenment is difficult also,
Bank of difficult indeed. Non-line of hard also, finally the difficult indeed!
Fourth, from at least get as many doubts. Not consider the problem as possible. Have
time to look at &quot;watch Theorem&quot;, two watches will make you
confuse. Consider only market trading system What is the result, regardless of why
the formation of the reasons for this result. The more factors you consider, the easier it
after you explain the market, but you will be more difficult operation in advance. In
consideration of the more, the more contradictions.
Fifth, the absolute machinery does not exist. Parameter selection is, species selection,
selection, opening of the signal. These are impossible to quantify with the system.
Trading is divided into two parts: rules + degree of freedom. In fact, it was not the
more mechanical the better. The higher a person&#39;s level, the more you can
use a higher degree of freedom. Confucius says: 70 arbitrary, not moments. The
so-called heart is freedom. The so-called moment, that is, rules or systems. The
highest state of no trading system that relies on instinct to be profitable! But to do this,
you must rely on rules to re-shape their own instincts.
Do not think that simple and mechanical way, it is easy to do, on the contrary! Do not
believe you try to look at one indicator, and then without thinking of the operation.
People do not want Dangsha Zi, so it is difficult ... very difficult ... there are easier
way to gain the higher instincts of rejection ... ... by system transactions, do not think.
Definitely not easy ... ... but you can do it, you can think about the ... ...
First, tell the truth, which requires you to give up certainty! This is not easy, I have
tried almost all of the deterministic methods are ineffective to pursue only after the
necessary willing to accept a loss. This is a heart problem, it is often difficult to
achieve. I do not complete. In a sense, we are all beginners. By more rules and less
mind to achieve transaction. But the real master on the contrary, they have been able
to put our minds and hearts of God programmed the software to format and re-enter
the new instinct procedures. It&#39;s like, what a loser does not need to be able
to defeat the rules of rigid reason the same ... ... we are at this stage is to suffer, the
process of re-establishment of instinctive process. In addition to time, no one can help
Second, the specific operation of the problem is difficult to answer. Because there is
no single answer, the key to see you bet? Even if he is tracking the trend, we scale,
sensitivity, etc. are not the same. This issue should ask yourself Caidui ... ... Suppose
you use my system to face the copper in a loss of this great possibility. Then you will
find another way, then ... ... As for me, this loss, and the next also use the same system.
This is the inevitable loss, and I certainly profit the next time ... ... I would like to
have you know what I mean, right? I do not predict the future to profit by, and I rely
on the probability of superiority. The probability of edge operation to be repeated only
after the show!
My personal experience, from that to do so I spent 5 years time, do to profit from the
three years I spent time. I mean, killed the trend trading strategy is the most important
stage, is only route. Understand? I used the stock market killed strategy 8 years, 5
years, I can not do this without thinking of the simple way ... ...
Theoretically, the higher the level the less you can rely on an inevitable occasional big
profit. However, I did a 10-year deal, or rely on an inevitable occasional big profit.
Average of three to use:
First, (a) below as a signal up too;
Secondly, (2) Jinchasicha as a signal;
Thirdly, (1) turning point as a signal.
The first method has the advantage, sensitive, and can clearly point position
calculated from the city. Drawback is the large number of false signals (up through
today, tomorrow, below); third method has the advantage of very few false signals,
after all, is not the kind of easy long-term average of U-turn. Disadvantage is slow
and very difficult to calculate the time, opening a clear position from the point of the
city. Comparing the second method the compromise, the number of false signals can
be received from the city point and although can not be calculated precisely, but little
I say trying to say is below the 10 line open to the false signal ratio is much higher
than 5 and 10 day moving average Sicha. So we do cross 5,10 machinery on-line
trading signals, then the number of consecutive losses may be more than 7 times. Can
you willing to accept a loss of more than 7 consecutive times, not even counting those
extreme market. Haha, this is like the fool you as the highest point of purchase, the
lowest point of sale, contract no big ups and downs, you have to lose some ... ... to see
the National Day of agricultural products before it, you can hold losses to the
postganglionic you ?