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Indian Ocean strategic triangle

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					Indian Ocean strategic triangle
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In recent years, as China and India, the continuous development of comprehensive
national strength, China's concern on the marine interests of the
increasingly urgent, the Indian Ocean as the world's one of the most
important oil lifeline, it is the interests of India have become the meeting point of sea,
which kind of urgent needs has led to concern the United States. In the latest issue of
the U.S. Naval Institute, the hospital's senior strategic researcher James
RHoImes published a report entitled "Indian Ocean's strategic
triangle" of the article on, the United States and India's strategic
situation in the Indian Ocean was discussed . Articles in this article were Excerpt
special, please view them carefully on the interpretation of the reader.
Now, in terms of economic, cultural or military point of view. The United States
remains the world's most powerful country. At the same time, in the distant
Asia, ancient China and India are quietly rising. China and India's great
power status and the pursuit of energy security prompted the two countries at the
same time attention turned to sea from land. Despite India's emphasis on
the marine interests of economic development from increased demand for energy, but
also on the marine interests of the two concerns that the U.S. still uneasy.
Indian Ocean and South China Sea is the world's one of the most important
oil lifeline, the Sino-Indian merchant and tanker must pass through the sea route to
reach their port. Therefore, both China and India want the event to control the time of
conflict within their respective spheres of influence area, as a bargaining chip in the
power struggle, this insecurity led to two naval arms race. In addition, the U.S.
dominance in the high seas constantly being questioned. People began to doubt
whether the United States naval forces to ensure the stability of the marine
environment. In this context, the Indian Ocean as including China, India and major
powers, including the United States the focus of attention. The past, people only care
about the external forces fight in the Indian Ocean region, often overlooked as the
regional power, India has played its own role. Ignore India in the Indian Ocean affairs
role, this will lead to future development of the region's misreading.
Therefore, in discussing the future development trend of the Indian Ocean region,
India must be seen as a full participant. In order to accurately assess the long-term
development of the situation the Indian Ocean region track the history of China, India
and the United States in the region between the three essential interactions, from this
discussion. We may be able to find three or cooperation, or the basis of competition.
India's own assessment of the development of sea power
India has always attached great importance to the strategic position of the Indian
Ocean, to its interests as their natural range, and actively engaged in naval
construction. 90% of world trade and transport by sea to achieve. Most of them
through the narrow waters of the Indian in the vicinity of a number. Including the
Strait of Hormuz, the Straits of Malacca and the Mande. Shipping in the narrow
waters vulnerable to attack, which India influence in the region had made it easier.
India's rapid economic development in recent years, more confident the
Government of India to show its ships, aircraft and weapons systems for the sign of
hard power, the implementation is intended to dominate the foreign policy of the
Indian Ocean region. Indian leaders have hinted that if necessary, intervene in the area
of conflict or the internal affairs of South Asian countries, India should be the
preferred state. Other countries do not allow intervention under any pretext.
June 2004, India released a paper entitled "Indian Ocean
Theory" document, which is India's first report on the marine
environment and how to deal with the challenges of public analysis. Documents that
India's maritime strategy is closely related to economic development:
"India's major maritime interests is to ensure national security.
Maritime interests and is not limited to protecting territorial waters and islands. Also
includes exclusive economic zone defense and defending the interests of commercial
trade security. so for India's rapid economic development to create an
enabling environment. In view of the importance of trade. Therefore, whether in peace,
tension or conflict period to maintain the smooth flow of the sea lines of
communication is an important national maritime interests. ""
Indian Ocean Theory " makers with particular emphasis on two
"strategic reality." First, about 40 merchant ships each day by
India's "interests of the maritime zone." Worth about
200 billion U.S. dollars per year of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, where
about 600 billion dollars in crude oil through the Strait of Malacca, was shipped to
China, Japan and other oil importing countries. Second, India location is very
important. Indian guards the Indian Ocean region's main commercial routes
and energy lifelines: the east, India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands across
a channel and out of the Strait of Malacca; west, lies the world's major
oil-producing regions - the Persian Gulf. "Indian Ocean theory"
that the special geographical position, should the Indian Ocean region's
shipping activities, marine traffic online influence. However, the impact must be
established on the basis of a strong navy. In addition, the "theory of the
Indian Ocean," also predicts that world energy consumption will lead to
rapid external forces to intervene in Indian affairs more frequently. Modern economic
development in the Gulf and Central Asia are very dependent on energy. This led to
many external forces involved in these two areas, and establish the relevant command,
control, surveillance and intelligence systems. An important channel for energy, India
will probably become the object of intervention of external forces. Not only that.
Indian Ocean coastal region also is rich in resources, including uranium, tin, gold and
diamonds. The existence of these resources makes the Indian Ocean region to become
increasingly the focus of external forces.
India on the international security environment rather pessimistic assessment, that the
difficult security environment is not conducive to the rise of India. With a vast land
area, excellent location and a keen sense of economic development, India has to
become a great nation. However. India's rise will inevitably meet with the
economic power of the block, and may lead to conflict. So. India believes. In response
to this hope and challenges of the strategic situation, to enhance its naval power is the
only rational choice. India is divided into two general threat to the sea: first, including
maritime terrorism, weapons proliferation, piracy, drug trafficking, including
non-traditional security threats: the second is the rival naval forces. Although the
Indian Navy has developed rapidly. Far more than Pakistan's naval power.
But due to historical reasons. India has been the Pakistan Navy as its permanent threat.
China's navy is considered to be India's long-term threat. India
believes that, if successfully resolved the Taiwan issue, China will turn its attention to
other important interests of the region, including the Indian Ocean. As for the U.S.
Navy stationed in Asia, India has maintained consistently since World War II wariness.
Despite the Indo-US maritime exchanges between the two countries has been closely,
but India India-Pakistan war in 1971, the U.S. Seventh Fleet during the conduct
involved in the Bay of Bengal is still brooding. In addition, India to the United States
military presence in the island of Diego Garcia is also holding a more ambivalence.
Unpleasant memory that leads to the development of US-India relations during the
caution. Short. Affect India's strategic considerations and the United States
between the two countries will contribute to some form of partnership. But this
relationship is not envisaged in the United States an important ally of the relationship.
Since partnerships are not so sure, so more and more necessary to maintain this
relationship both India and the United States made great efforts.
Many scholars believe that realism. With the rise of China and India, Asia, there will
be similar to the 19th century the political balance of power on the European
continent. But some scholars think that the reality of European politics is not
applicable in Asia, with China as the center of the ancient hierarchical society may
recover. These two paradigms are not welcome in India, India preferred the third
paradigm - the "Monroe Doctrine." 1823. U.S. President
Monroe announced the "Monroe Doctrine" foreign policy,
claiming that "America is America for Americans." Against
European interference in American affairs; also announced that the U.S. is not
interested in Europe, the United States and Europe do not want a generation. After
independence, India refer to the "Monroe Doctrine", the South
Asian subcontinent as its sphere of influence. That any intervention on the
subcontinent affairs is a violation of India. "India's Monroe
Doctrine" has become India's foreign relations and maritime
strategy in a word.
The United States ignored the development of sea power in India
The United States attaches great importance to US-India relations and bilateral
cooperation in the field of shipping, however, U.S. policy makers and marine
scientists are not concerned about India's strategic sea power development,
and increasing emphasis on India's National Security Strategy of the
changes in the marine interests. Rapid growth of India's military, political
ambitions are swelling, but the United States has not issued similar for India,
"Chinese military power report" documents. The opposite is.
United States and India in the high-level diplomacy, and tactical, battle level frequent
exchanges of military cooperation. High-level diplomacy, the United States often use
"the world's largest country" and "the
world's oldest democracies," between "natural
strategic partnership" to describe the US-India relations: the military field,
since 1993. Meet annual US-India code-named "Malabar" joint
military exercises, which ask. Since India conducted nuclear tests in 1998, was
suspended joint military exercises. Since 2002. United States and India to resume
again, "Malabar" exercise, the scale of yearly upgrades.
However, senior diplomatic and military exercises between the Indian Ocean between
the strategies. But few people in the United States is interested.
In October 2007. United States Navy announced a new strategy, "Sea
Power 21 strategic cooperation," the document states that U.S. combat
forces will continue to be deployed in the western Pacific and Indian Ocean region to
protect U.S. interests, to ensure safety and deter rival allies. However. Document does
not explain the strategic deployment of multi-national background. That the United
States how to deal with India a regional maritime power relations, this relationship is
successful an integral part of naval strategy.
U.S. neglect of sea power in India for several reasons. First. United States does not
believe that the rise of India will threaten its national interests. Clinton and the Bush
administration to include India, "Democratic Coalition" the list,
be regarded as a natural strategic partner or ally. Second. In recent years. US-India
relations were dominated by other matters, only the subcontinent's nuclear
tests in the United States to involve a lot of energy and time. Third, the Indian Ocean
strategy introduced too slow. In 2004 India introduced its first report on
India's marine environment and how to respond to the challenges of the
report, India's maritime strategy fully mature until 2007, before forming.
This means that the United States, India, observers do not have sufficient time to
analyze the Indian Ocean and its effects to the US-India maritime cooperation.
Although the close US-India high-level diplomacy, the United States to ignore
India's maritime strategy will ultimately affect the US-India relations. With
India's growing national strength and military strength. Especially when
India is trying to take advantage of its geographic advantage of the time to get more
benefits. Construction of close US-India strategic partnership between the opportunity
to slowly gone.
China views the development of sea power in India
And American scholar indifferent to India compared to many Chinese scholars are
entirely from the geopolitical point of view to interpret India's maritime
strategy. "Whoever controls the Indian Ocean will come to dominate Asia,
the Indian Ocean is the key to the world the seven seas, the fate of the 21st century
will see the outcome in the Indian Ocean." Similar words are often used to
describe Chinese scholars thought sea power in India. South Asia Institute of Sichuan
University researchers have been from the geopolitical point of view of the rise of
India, that India has four major geo-political advantages: First, India is the
world's richest natural resources in the area: Second, India is the
region's most strong state: the third, and the United States, India has a vast
geographical distance to the strategic development of space; Fourth, India is the
world's economic development and regional cooperation in the most
dynamic areas. Including Nehru of India, including all previous leaders of their own
geo-strategic position has a more clear understanding, knowledge development and
the Indian Ocean to the Indian solidarity.
Geo-political factors over recent years with the implementation of export-oriented
Indian Ocean strategy is fit, which many observers of China more firmly to the
expansion of the Indian Ocean strategy assessment. China's view.
India's maritime strategy can be divided into three periods:
"coastal defense" strategy period (20th century founding to the
late 60s), "regional control" strategy period (20th century to the
early 70s early 90s), "Ocean extension" Strategy period (since
the mid-90s of the 20th century to present). The first period, the Indian
Navy's activities are confined to the peninsula's east and west
coasts of India - the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. To meet the Army and Air Force
operations. The second period, India to strengthen the control of the Indian Ocean and
the Indian Ocean is divided into three strategic areas: First, we must ensure that the
offshore security "completely controlled area": The second is to
ensure the safety of sea lanes, have the ability to monitor the "medium
control Area ": The third is with protrusion capacity, have a certain
deterrent capability of" soft control zones. " For the third period,
the assessment of India's maritime strategy, different views of Chinese
scholars, but are not limited to maritime strategy that the Indian Ocean, from the
"coastal defense" and "area control" of
the combination of the "blue water navy" change. Chinese
scholars believe that the new century from the Arabian Sea, the Indian
Navy's intent to obtain control of the northern South China Sea;
development in the area control sea lines of communication and the ability to conduct
naval warfare; maintain absolute superiority countries around the Indian Ocean: the
development of external Navy strategic deterrent forces: the development of
long-range power projection, it can be reached during the conflict and control the
enemy's coastal waters; with reliable sea-based "second nuclear
retaliatory" strike capability; vigorous implementation of the
"East", " west, "" south
"strategy, east to its strength and impact of the scope of activities extends
to the South China Sea and the Pacific, across the Red Sea and Suez Canal to the west,
spread to the Mediterranean, the south edge of the southern tip of the former out into
the Indian Ocean, and even around the Cape of Good Hope to reach the Atlantic
Ocean off.
Chinese scholars believe that the Indian Ocean in order to achieve its strategy. Speed
up the process of naval modernization. Some scholars accused the U.S. of double
standards, the gradual strengthening of the Indian Navy turned a blind eye, did not
raise any warning, but the development of China's navy is too much
concern. Most scholars believe that the United States sea power to India from China
and concerned about the development trends of the research is impressive. Chinese
Navy since November 2005 issue of consecutive 10-month published a series of
reports on the Indian Navy. Articles include the development of the Indian Navy
Review, aircraft carriers, surface warships, submarine forces, naval aviation, coastal
operations and amphibious ships supporting forces, naval special forces, sophisticated
weapons and equipment (except for ships other than new weapons and equipment),
strategy and tactics and combat capability, officers and major facilities, ports and
other parts.
And compared to the more radical view. Many Chinese scholars on the attitude of the
Indian economy seems relatively calm. Former Chinese ambassador Cheng Ruisheng
that more and more Chinese and Indian policy makers have set a new security concept,
abandoned in the past "zero sum" of the old security concept.
Former ambassador to the United States and India, the common development of
Sino-Indian relations are full of confidence, that the two are not mutually exclusive,
so the Indian Ocean region on the India-US strategic triangle of stability and full of
expectations. Many Chinese scholars believe that India and the United States, Japan,
many foreign countries, including the development of friendly relations just to expand
in an increasingly multipolar world in space. India's policy a little
"fence" policy of the taste. Is a new "non-aligned
policy." Although some Chinese scholars believe that the Indian Ocean
region, India would be to bring about instability, but the strategy will be better than
the continuity of the potential instability. As for the rise of India does not undermine
regional stability. Nor will India be the region's strategic advantage.
In the military level, many Chinese scholars. Development needs of the Indian Navy
has already far exceeded the scope of national power can support, because
India's defense budget over the GDP growth. India in the development of
"blue water navy," there less than three points: first,
India's national strength can not support a "global
navy": Second. India to rely on foreign technology. Their relatively weak
industrial base, which will seriously hamper the development of local defense industry,
especially the domestic development of the next generation of aircraft carriers: the
third, the quantity and quality, India's surface battleships are the existing
not meet the requirements of offshore operations . Weak air force also will be the
future of the Indian aircraft carrier task force in the fatal problem.
Can be seen from the above analysis. China's sea power in
India's development is not a definite conclusion. On the one hand, China
from the perspective of sea power to infer the development of India's
maritime forces will be strong and try to control the Indian Ocean, to become a
regional hegemon: On the other hand, limited the naval forces of the Chinese that
India can not break it on the geographical and technical constraints. Conflicting views
that the Sino-Indian competition in the Indian Ocean or South China Sea situation is
not the fate of the two. Present. China and India can not afford to spread its power to
their own "backyard" and the current geopolitical climate
conducive to cooperation. In China and India are still eager to pursue interests outside
the region, and has affected the capacity of leading foreign affairs until enough time
has passed between the two countries to cooperate with each other as a threat reshape
views.
Uncertain future for the Indian Ocean region
Pattern of Indian Ocean sea that the current situation is conducive to China, India, the
United States among the relations of mutual benefit and win-win. At present, India for
its more optimistic assessment of the marine environment, but also aware of its lack
of hard practice, "Monroe Doctrine" the necessary conditions.
Although in principle, the Indian attempt to establish, as President Monroe as regional
hegemony. However, the current Indo-US cooperation to maintain the status of
maritime security in South Asia, India is still very satisfied. However. This is only an
expedient measure in India.
Together with the Japanese and the United States to contain the former Soviet Union,
India's less likely to cooperate with the United States together to contain
China's development space in South Asia. To "non-aligned
policy," the independent development path, marked by the decision not to
take this strategy in India and Japan during the Cold War, India's do not
need to rely on external forces to protect its maritime and homeland security.
Geographically, Japan and Vladivostok are very close to its trend into the siege.
Vladivostok is the former Soviet Pacific Fleet's home port. During the
Russo-Japanese War. Russia harassing Japanese business and military logistics supply
route of the cruiser's base. Japan must develop sea power, lurking in the
Sea of Japan to monitor submarine movements of the former Soviet Union, and have
to Hokkaido from the former Soviet Union amphibious attacks. Compared with Japan,
in the face of China, India, two marine buffer zones: the eastern Indian Ocean and
South China Sea. Give a simple example, where the Indian Navy's Eastern
Command South and the South China Sea Fleet 维莎卡帕特 where thousands of
nautical miles away from Zhanjiang, Guangdong. Geographical advantage as to
prevent India from early to join anti-China alliance was a major factor.
Currently, the United States did not put too much effort to analyze the Indian naval
forces, or of the Indian Ocean may be a major power structure. The United States
India-US strategic partnership between the formation of confidence. Australia claims
to Indian Ocean countries, and energy security depends on the Indian Ocean sea lanes
of countries like Japan have no intention to stop the implementation of India,
"Indian Monroe Doctrine." If these countries are also involved
in the regional affairs. The pattern of the region will become very complicated, but the
participation of these countries and India will reduce competition between the United
States Strategic Triangle. For India, the rise of sea power, China has basically
maintained a very relaxed attitude, and India's threat to its interests in the
region, expressed doubts about the ability and willingness. Present. China and the U.S.
attitude on India can not bring good times for the Indian Ocean region. But in the
short and medium term, the region will provide the basis for cooperation among
countries.
Pattern of Indian Ocean sea also shows that the Construction Agreement India-US
trilateral maritime opportunity will not last very long. Once India successfully build a
powerful navy. Whether in fact or in principle from the Indian Ocean, India will
become their own protected areas. As India's maritime ambitions in South
Asia would seriously damage China's economic, energy and security
interests, China, India would adopt a warning of the approach. In a strategic
partnership between the hopes, the United States might re-evaluate the possibility of
US-Indian alliance. This situation is not conducive to a win-win cooperation to
establish a strategic triangle.
Implementation of maritime security cooperation is by no means predetermined, a
series of unknown factors will push India to take a more hard-line security concept. If
the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf as the United States to attack Iran's
nuclear facilities, a platform, India could use this opportunity to expand regional
hegemony. US-India civil nuclear technology agreement between the failure of the
bilateral relations will have the indirect effects of uncertainty. Thereby affecting the
stability of the strategic triangle. Similarly, if China began to deploy ballistic missile
submarines in the Indian Ocean. India could further increase the Navy's
input, dedicated anti-submarine capabilities and building its own nuclear deterrent.
Competition rather than cooperation, situation will become the Indian Ocean and
India-US strategic triangle features, resulting in an unstable region to the formation.
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posted:8/26/2010
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