Rolling Stock Whole Life Cost Model

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					   Rolling Stock
Whole Life Cost Model
     Andrew Jablonski

           IMechE
  Wednesday 13th December 2006
Acknowledgements
                                               Instigated & supported by V/V SIC
                                               Funded by RSSB
                                               Developed jointly by
                                               Serco and Delta Rail



                       V/V SIC
Vehicle / Vehicle System Interface Committee
Project Scope
  • A tool to assist in high level decision making in
    the rail industry
  • Longevity – life expectancy of 10-20 years
  • Flexible to meet the needs of Stakeholders
    – TOCs
    – ATOC
    – DfT
    – ROSCOs
    – Supply Industry
  • Results in £s
Purpose of Model

• To identify the costs of building and operating a
  train to provide a given service.

• To answer specific questions, such as:
  – What is the best vehicle length and train formation?
  – How does train design affect track damage?
  – What is the journey time / mass / energy use trade-off?
  – Is it better to design for particular routes or achieve
    commonality of stock?
  – How does passenger comfort influence demand?
  – What is the environmental impact of this train service?
Project Progress


  • DeltaRail/Serco selected as preferred supplier
  • Consultation meetings with stakeholders held
  • Finalisation of Customer Requirements
  • Functional Requirements Specification delivered
    and consulted with industry
  • Programming started
Project Milestones

• Customer Requirements Specification – 2/10/2006
• Functional Requirements Specification – 6/11/2006
• Installation & Training DfT – 17/01/2007
• MS Excel 1st Draft beta Release - 31/01/2007
• Conversion to Visual Basic – 01/06/2007
  ‘Streamlined’ application offering
   improved usability & flexibility
• Publication & Project Completion 21/06/2007
Whole Life Cost Model
   Phase 1 Scenario
        –     Deals with a single train design
        –     Running on a single linear route
        –     With a specified service frequency and stopping pattern
        –     Over a given life
                   Station 1


            Station 1      Station 2      Station 3            Station 4


Speed



Gradients



Passengers
Cost Components

                           Train Delay            First Cost
                              Cost              (Build / Refurb)

         Track Damage                                               Planned
             Cost                                                  Maintenance
                                                                      Cost



  Environmental                          Whole-Life                           Repair Cost
  Disposal Cost                            Cost

           Environmental
           Manufacturing                                            Energy Cost
                Cost
                             Pollution            Train Staff
                               Cost                  Cost
Data

                                   Mass
                                                       Train Frequency
 Power and Braking
                                                                 Stopping Pattern
                     First Cost

                                                  Service //
                                                  Service                   Demand
   Components
                                                  Demand
                                                  Demand
                Materials                 Train
                                          Train
                                                                          Speed Profile
     Suspension                                   Route
                                                  Route
                                                                         Gradient
                     Reliability

                                                               Stations
                             Maintenance
Model Overview
                            Data



    Train                    Track
               Materials                          Demand
 Performance                Damage     Etc.
                Module                             Module
   Module                   Module




               Whole Life   Seat                 Passengers
                 Cost       km                     Carried



                                     Passenger
                                        km
Phase 1 Model Scope
MS Excel-based
 • Scenario: Single train - route - service pattern
   model
 • Constant train configuration over life
 • Separate scenario runs required for multiple
   trains / multiple routes / refurbishment
 • Some control over data entry to assure quality
   and provide user guidance
 • Workable, tested, early release model with
   some compromises on usability
Phase 1 Model Scope
   Train Configuration                                           Optional scenario data
                            Data Group
                             Data Group                          entry levels:
   Train Composition
                              Library
                               Library          User
                                                 User                 Train
   Route Definition                           Scenarios
                            (Excel file)       Scenarios
                             (Excel file)                             Vehicle
   Etc                                       (Excel files)
                                              (Excel files)
                                                                      Component

     Master
      Master               Data Entry
                            Data Entry          Whole Life
                                                Whole Life
    Scenario                                                    - Cost breakdowns and user
     Scenario
                             GUI
                              GUI                 Costs
                                                   Costs          / non-user benefits by year
     Template
      Template                                                    (40 year life)
    (Excel file)         (Excel dialogs)
                          (Excel dialogs)         Report
                                                   Report
     (Excel file)                                               - Capacity – demand forecasts


                                                 Sensitivity    -e.g. Cost variations for user-
Single train               Algorithms
                            Algorithms            Sensitivity   selected input parameter
– route               (Train Performance           Graph
                                                   Graph        and range (e.g. no. axles,
                       (Train Performance                       axle load, fuel price)
– service pattern     & Whole Life Costs)         Report
                                                   Report
                       & Whole Life Costs)
                          (VBA code)
                           (VBA code)
Phase 2 Model Scope -VBA
                                                        Improvements to MS Excel model:
  Scenario                              Scenario
   Scenario                              Scenario       •   Multiple train configurations -
   Library
    Library                            Comparison           routes - service patterns
                                        Comparison
                                         Report             model
                                          Report
Users/Projects
 Users/Projects                                         •   Refurbishment lifetime profile
   Library
    Library                             Bespoke
                                         Bespoke        •   Tilt modelling
                    Software
                     Software        Whole Life Costs
                                     Whole Life Costs   •   VTISM import / export
 Data Group
  Data Group        Application
                     Application        Reporting
                                         Reporting
   Library
    Library         (VB.NET / /
                     (VB.NET
                                                        •   Scenario comparison report,
                  MS Access 2003)                           e.g. NPV ranking
                   MS Access 2003)
                                        Sensitivity
                                         Sensitivity    •   Data entry wizard assuring
  Validation
   Validation
    Rules
                                          Graph
                                           Graph            fool-proof workflow
     Rules
                                         Report
                                          Report        •   Improved security and
VTISM Track
 VTISM Track
                                                            traceability of scenarios
Damage Costs
 Damage Costs                                               Improved usability,
                                                            robustness and
                                                            performance
Phase 2 Model Scope -VBA
Phase 2 Model Scope -VBA
Create Data Groups




 Menu structure for “Data Groups”
 displays these data entry forms
Create Data Modules
 Summary of Data Modules in “Train” Data Group
Reference Data
Reference Data
                 Reference Data
Software Testing & Acceptance


   • Usability trials, feedback and training
   • Software testing and acceptance
     – Unit / System Testing against Customer &
       Functional Requirements
     – Acceptance Testing against Stakeholder
       requirements
     – TickIT certification
Summary
 • Delivering a tool for the industry to identify the costs of
   building and operating a train to provide a given service

 • Answer specific questions, such as:
   – What is the best vehicle length and train formation?
   – What is the journey time / mass / energy use trade-off?
   – How does passenger comfort influence demand?

 • Installation, Training, Use DfT – 17/01/2007

 • MS Excel 1st Draft beta Release - 31/01/2007

 • Conversion to Visual Basic – 01/06/2007