Elliott Wave Theory of market conduct a key speech Eliot Chapter VIII ? 2009-03-16 16:51 ? Chapter VIII Eliot speech The next decade While trying to make the &quot;impossible&quot; long-term stock market trend forecasting very dangerous stage, if only based on wave theory shows that our method used to analyze the market place, we decided to take the risk. This risk is, if we think the stock market in the coming years with the change, the analysis in this book, we still maintain it was, but this analysis is based on our in early July 1978 of the understanding. We can only hope that our readers will not be a very bold prediction that the end did not work, and completely refused to accept the wave theory. With the beginning of the narrative of the reservations, we direct our analysis. By Eliot&#39;s argument, from the great 1931 bull market cycle wave-class has been running into. The current market level in a cycle wave bull market phase, this bull market will be composed of five waves Big Wave class, of which two are likely to have ended. From this long-term trend chart has several conclusions can be drawn. First of all, at least the next few years, probably in early or mid 80&#39;s stock index should not develop into a similar l969 to 1970 or 1q73 to 1974 as the bear market. Secondly, the &quot;sub-company&quot; shares should be during the entire cycle of wave Ⅴ leading gainers, (but better than they are in circulation in the low wave Ⅲ). Finally, and perhaps most important, this cycle should not be developed into a wave from 1942 to 1966 types of stable, sustained bull market, because in any series of the wave structure, usually only to extend the wave into a wave. Therefore, since from 1942 to 1966 the trend is to extend the wave, then the current cycle should be like a bull wave level from 1932 to 1937 and from 1921 to 1929 the market as there is a simpler structure and shorter wave duration. As the DJIA decline continues today, the prevailing pessimism has produced several distortion of the &quot;Elliott&quot; wave judged that the big waves from simply adjust the level of the second wave began a devastating decline occurred . Through the distortion of Eliot&#39;s theory, some people have even been predicted in the near future, DJIA will fall below 200 points. For this analysis, we can only quote Hamilton Bolton in the &quot;bank credit analyst,&quot; 1958, &quot;Elliott Wave Supplements&quot; section on page 12, then said: Whether to enter the market when the bear market phase, we always find that &quot;Eliot theory&quot; can be judged to show a much lower price is reasonable. Despite the considerable degree of freedom can be explained by &quot;Elliot theory,&quot; but we can not completely divorced from its subject. In other words, as in the amateur players against professional hockey game, you can change some rules, but must adhere to basic rules, or you create a new game is in danger. As we have seen, can be judged acceptable to the most empty, the cycle of wave Ⅳ is not over, but the last wave of the decline is ongoing, even taking into account this situation, DJIA lowest point of the maximum expected value is 520 points ④ 1962 wave is the lowest. However, according to our construction in Figure 5-5 in the trend channel, we judge this situation unlikely. Basically, two possible judged all show up. Some evidence that the type of swing and continued to scurry about the decline may be involved in the formation of a huge sloping triangular structure (see Figure 8-1). Since October 1975 the lowest point of 784.16 points in January 1978 has been broken up, and then there may be a three-level wave of strong gains, so tilted triangle that seems to be a very practical level loop wave bull market trend, because in a tilted triangle wave drive, each wave function rather than by the three waves of five waves form. Only when starting from the December 1974 cycle of waves big waves in the fifth wave cycle, then a huge tilted triangle may be formed. Since the tilted triangle is essentially a weak structure, then if that happens, our ultimate goal may be increased by 1,700 points down to the regional. Today, DJIA and other indices compared to the market extremely poor performance, seems to support this argument. Triangle on the most credible alternative to tilt the case that, from July 1975 to March 1978 of all market activities, is a 1959 to 1962 the shape of the market model, the huge proliferation of platform-shaped adjustment waves ABC. This judged as shown in 8-2, which indicates a very strong waves on the red market. If this is judged is correct, then we should be able to easily reach the target price. We infer from the price of the Dow on the principle that a five-wave sequence in the two to promote the waves, especially when the second wave is to extend the wave of time, inclination, and so long. For the current cycle of waves - and from 1932 to 1937 waves Ⅰ half of the number (percentage) of equal length. Can push the market orthodoxy of the highest point at around 2860 (if it happens to be 371.6 percent gain, then is 2724 points), this is a reasonable goal position, because the projection of the trend line shows the highest point during 2500 to 3000 Point area. For those who think that these abnormally high number of people testing the market in the history to prove the percentage of such movement is not unusual. This is an interesting comparison. As the Dow&#39;s bull market in 20 years - a fifth cycle of waves - before the price of 100 points under the &quot;work&quot; for a few years, as the Dow is now 1,000 points in the price of the following work 13 years. And, as Eliot judged according to the Dow in 1928, the orthodox as the highest point is 296 points, the next highest point estimate will appear in the same relative prices, despite a proliferation of platform-shaped adjustment may be temporarily brought to the average index a higher position, we expect the end of a cycle may be close to the waves on top-level channel boundary. If there then climb the trend, then the subsequent adjustments may be suffocating quickly. If Figure 8-2 on the current state of the market&#39;s analysis is correct, then from 1974 to 1987 the market is moving may be reversed the trend from 1929 to 1937 then in recent years, in March l978 the lowest point of 740 points, as We said in the Figure 8-3 as. The picture is just the outline of such programs, but it does provide a fifth wave extension of the five big waves. The same principles are met alternately, as waves adjust the wave form ② is the platform, while the sawtooth-shaped waves is adjusted ④ waves. It is noteworthy that there is expected to rebound in 1986 will be 740 points in the dotted line position to stop, the importance of price has been established (see Chapter IV). Since the 1932-1937 cycle wave bull market continued for five-level, so it added to the current price after three years of the bull market, the wave come to the duration of the current cycle is eight years (wave duration of 1.618 times Ⅰ ). To support our thesis that the time factor, let us first test it from 1928 to 1929 the market began to turn some of the key points of the Fibonacci time series. Chapter IV of the turn of the Fibonacci schedule that a turning point in the same market. The above formula only related to time, but when considered in a separate raised the question: from 1982 to 1984 the head or the bottom will occur, and in 1987 it appears the head or bottom. However, the connection before the market structure, and no one can see that from 1982 to 1984 the period appears to be one on the head region, and 1987 will see a major bottom of the region. Since the third wave is an extension of waves, then the first wave and the fifth wave will be the big waves in the shortest cycle waves, since waves Ⅰ continued for five years, a Fibonacci number, then the wave is likely Ⅴ eight years long, the next Fibonacci number, and continue until late 1982. Since the wave wave Ⅰ and Ⅱ were continued for five years, so if the waves and waves Ⅳ Ⅴ have continued for eight years, will form some kind of structure often appear in wave symmetry. Furthermore, the wave Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅳ and Ⅴ duration of the sum of the third wave will be almost equivalent to the extended duration. The next inference from 1982 to 1984 is likely region is the end of a cycle wave V evidence is purely arithmetical. Living large circle that contains the current wave of price trends in the activities of the rise in the channel market, should be around in 1983 to reach in the channel parallel to the line, that is, price target of around 2860 points. We can also 4-17 from the map of Benetton - Fibonacci cycle map to get some additional perspective, we have proved that Benetton - Fibonacci cycle that can be used quite successfully to predict the stock from 1964 to 1974 The overall market trend. At least now, Benetton theory can support the inference to be our future, because this time it is clear that the highest point in 1983 and 1987, the lowest deep, but, although we expect to make predictions in the next decade valid - as did all other loop formula, but this formula is likely in the next cycle of a cycle of decline in the failure wave. We have even discussed in Chapter VII by the 尼古拉康德拉 Andrei Dementiev found 50 four-year economic cycle, also shows that in 1933 and the abyss of the Great Depression 50 years away from 1987, it is possible at the bottom of a stock market during this particular period in the current stable enough optimism led to the stock market before 1987, under the strong trend. Most cycle theorists believe that the present situation, or in 1979 there was &quot;anti-waves&quot;, we have an objection to that state of mind of ordinary investors will not be disappointed with the impact seems poised. Most important stock market crash were from the optimism prevalent overvalued period. Current conditions will not prevail, because the continuation of eight years of the bear market have taught investors to be careful today, Ji-wing, conservative, cautious and cynical. Head area in the market, defensive investment is not everywhere. Figure 8-3 So, then what? We will certainly be another like from 1929 to 1932 as the chaotic period of it? In 1929, buying less because the market structure, developed a &quot;balloon (Air Pocket)&quot;, index plunged. Once the wave of the dominant emotion, then the financial leaders can not make every effort to prevent market panic. In the past two hundred years after the situation of this nature usually take good in the economy and the market in 2034 appears in the chaotic environment. In the past five years, we have never seen the situation in 1929, and when people want such a history does not repeat itself, the history will have other options. In fact, four basic changes in market conditions may be at a future time based on the real part of the market panic. The first is the control of institutional investors on the market increasing, it will greatly expand the personal impact on market behavior, as millions or even billions of dollars may be at a person or a small committee be controlled under . The second is the birth of the options market, in this market, many of the &quot;little people&quot; close to capacity in the market when the stock market. In this case, the book value of several billion dollars in the NYSE trading day gone. Third, in order to declare a long-term investment returns and will hold from six months to a year, will increase for tax purposes and insisted that the cumulative long-term benefits only those who &quot;can not sell&quot; syndrome. Finally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission forced repeal of certain NYSE broker (Specialist) role in the operation of the securities industry that would force a kind of dealer market initiatives, may cause some brokerage companies are required to maintain the flow of the market held huge stock positions, but this will give them a considerable drop in the loss. Panic is an emotive issue, not a theoretical question Eliot. Good or bad, just wave Cang Li warned investors in the emerging market trends change. Decided to look for what the next decade, than trying to predict what specific expectations is more important. No matter how we explore the long-term future of the generous rate, the fifth in the fifth big waves in the fifth wave of small waves from the lowest point in 1974, launched before our research is certainly tentative. When the &quot;fifth wave of the fifth wave&quot; near the end of the time, Elliott Wave analyst should be able to confirm that the stock market in the end cycle wave bull market level. In accordance with the principles of wave theory analysis of market movement, we should bear in mind the number of waves is always top priority. Our proposal is to correct a few waves, and never in the hypothetical market movements in the act blindly. In addition to other evidence presented here, if the actual movement of the waves tell us to abandon our forecast, we will not hesitate to implement. However, if we forecast the future is correct, and then the big loop once the current wave Ⅴ end, will be a wave of new wave of super-large circle, the super big wave of the first phase of cycle will end in 1987 Zuo You, and market adjustments from its peak again at around 1000 levels. Ultimately, this super cycle wave-level target bit should bear a large loop in the previous level of the undertaking of four-wave waves of the region, that is, Dow 4I points to 381 points between. However, in addition to our doubts, the taking into account the peak immediately after the panic, we certainly can not make any firm predictions. A wave period of the market and indeed often powerful, but the impatience of activities more in the A-B-C structure in the C wave. However, Charles J · Collins fear the worst situation, he wrote: My view is that the end of a cycle wave Ⅴ, probably all the money in the world once again witnessed the game in a crisis over the past 40 years in the Keynesian foolish, and, because of wave Ⅴ end super cycle wave , so we had better escape before the storm up the past. Natural law Why do human beings have always made his own escape the wind blow? 安德鲁 迪肯 Senhuai Te (Andrew Dickinson White) of the book &quot;French notes of inflation (Fiat Money Inflation in France)&quot; in-depth and detailed study of the past &quot;Experience has succumbed to the theory of general business subject to financial metaphysical&quot; period. In amazement, the 亨利赫兹里 特 (Henry Hazlitt) in the foreword to the book repeated inflation test for human puzzled: Perhaps the great inflation of the other - John Laurie (John Law) to the credit of France from 1716 to 1720 experiment; from 1775 to 1780 monetary history of our own continent; Civil War greenbacks; reached its peak in 1923 German inflation - may help to emphasize this lesson. From these shocking history of recurrent, we must once again come to the conclusion depressing despair, the history of mankind can only learn one thing from the history of mankind nothing? Or we still have enough time enough sense and enough courage, the terrible lessons of the past to get these guidelines it? We have to think this issue should also be the case: It is clear that human beings often refused to accept the other laws of nature is itself a law of nature. If this assumption is false, then the Elliott Wave theory may never be found because it may not even exist. Wave theory in part because of human refuse to learn from history, because we can always count on his misguided belief that two plus two can be, indeed can get five. He may go astray to believe that natural law does not exist (or more commonly said, &quot;does not apply to this case&quot;), things do not come to the production of consumption out of borrowed things do not pay, promise the same as real , notes that gold, income without cost, as long as the reason to turn a blind eye or sarcastic mockery of the concerns will disappear. Panic is the life world of sudden, emotional sense of community, those who panic at the bottom of the first upward swing began also. At these times, rational people suddenly in the mind of the public group created the impression that &quot;things gone too far. The reality that the current price is unreasonable.&quot; Therefore, the reason being ignored, it means the group mood swings and mirrors - market - development to the time limit. In many natural laws, in the current cycle of Eliot big waves turn a blind eye the most was that, in addition to family and charitable institutions, the natural environment in each of biology, or to provide the conditions for its own existence or extinction of natural the most beautiful features is its diversity, because each element of life is closely linked with other elements of life, they only support themselves by supporting the many other elements of life. Nothing more than people living things need the support of neighbors, because that is his right, as the world as there is no such right. Every tree, every flower, every bird, every rabbit, the wolf is the nature of each request, the efforts of their neighbors, neither support nor expect; that would mitigate those neighbors thrive, and the whole of nature development. The greatest in human history, the real test is the United States Officials in the structure of human freedom, and free enterprise capitalism and the environment are necessary. This concept will be people from the fetters of others. Whether he is the feudal period of nobility, gentry, kings, bishops, bureaucrats, or for a free bread and square of the poor, the diversity of this experiment, luxury and benefits have a place in history and become one of the greatest laws of nature Memorial, as well as the achievements of the millennium wave in the last eruption. America&#39;s founders did not choose a whim pyramid the world&#39;s attention as the emblem of America. They use the truth of the universe Egyptian symbols that perfect society organizations, a building on the knowledge of human nature and the effects of natural law on society. For political reasons, in the past of a century, the American founders were the words Yi Zaodao a distorted, Yitudedao the Waiqu, and Dizao Jieguochansheng the one kind of totally different social Kuangjia O&#39;clock. Badge bearing the dollar&#39;s devaluation of America and ironically, it reflects social and political framework of the decline in value. In fact, in writing this book, one dollar a relative in 1913 established the Federal Reserve Board, the value of only 12 cents. Virtually always accompanied by currency devaluation decline of cultural standards. Our friend Richard Russell described the problem like this: I firmly believe that if every villain can assume full responsibility for themselves, then this world&#39;s troubles can be solved (and therefore the Earth is like heaven). Conversations with 100 people, the I can not find one fiftieth Ren can self-Zhi Cheng for his own responsibilities in life and do his own thing, Cheng Shou his own pain (Er Bu Shi shifting blame onto). Similarly, the spread of laissez-faire is also overflowing in the financial sector. Today, people all seeking their rights - as long as you and I pay the bill. The world has the right to work, the right university, of happiness, the right to three meals a day. Who can promise to everyone of all those rights? I believe in freedoms, in addition to freedom into a place where indulgence and cause harm. But the Americans have confused the freedom and rights. 100 years ago, British historian and politician, Lord Macaulay 托马斯巴宾 Leighton (Lord Thomas Babington Macaulay) correctly identified the root of this problem, we would like to quote some of his May 23, 1857 was to the New York H · S · Randall (HS Randall) of the letter: I sincerely hope you make the right judgments. However, my intellect and desire to conflict with, and I can not tolerate the worst of things. Clearly, your government will never be imprisonment for disaster-ridden and disaffected majority. For you, most people that the Government, and have always a few people rich. In New York, when a large group of people - not one of them can eat breakfast in a half full, or look forward to dinner in a half full - even choose the state legislature when that day will come. People will wonder whether the choice of the state legislature? Side is a politician, advocating patience, respect for rights and the strict observance of the established public religion. On the other side is a firebrand, shouting authoritarian capitalists and usurers, and asking why thousands of people asking for necessities Laoshibajiao time must be allowed to champagne, to drive the carriage? I seriously realized that, in the account I have been a disastrous season, you will take action to prevent the boom retrogression; you would like those to be in a depression times, and squandered all the grains, and therefore to the coming year is no longer depressed, but there is definitely a serious famine as action man. A Caesar (Caesar), or a Napoleon would use strong means of power, or your Republic will be like when the Roman Empire in the fifth century, as the barbarians in the twentieth century has been looted, and the land desolate; the only difference is that , who plundered the Huns ravaged the Roman Empire (Hun) and the Vandals (Vandal) from outside, and your Huns and Vandals will be your system in your country gradually. Capital (grains) function is to generate more capital and income, which can ensure that future generations are well off. Capital One is excessive and wasteful expenditure policies of politicians, it no longer exists; humans can extract from the berry jam, but not the berries into jam. Progress in this century, while individuals and groups to meet certain output of the demands of others, 人类 by the government departments have already begun from what he has created, it is becoming increasingly clear that the. He not only secured his current output, consumption of several generations through the accumulation of capital, the output of mortgage the future generations. In a natural law rights in the name does not exist, humanity has forced to accept, hollow, only consumption of paper, he exponential rate shopping, spending and borrowing, creating a history of the world&#39;s largest debt pyramid, and refused to recognize the debts must be repaid one form or another. Negative employment unskilled minimum wage, eliminating diversity and denied the school community of creative consciousness, consumption of housing, lease control, carried out through transfer payments to blackmail, and the red tape to suppress the market, all these are the elimination of economic and human the natural law - and therefore the natural law of nature - the political motive. Similar results have gradually collapsed buildings and rusting railway, boring and not by their education, to reduce capital investment, reduce production, inflation, economic stagnation, unemployment and the widespread hatred and instability. Such as these resulted in the institutionalization of the policy of increasing unrest, and the composition of a conscientious producer countries, transformed into a full private part of the irritation of the gambler, and a full of unscrupulous predators public part. When the fifth wave of the fifth wave arise, we do not ask why it has so. Moreover, the reality will be imposed on us. When those who are attached with the producers disappear or depleted, the attachment and others who will lose life support system, people would have to be patient to learn the laws of nature once again. As pointed out, the wave theory, the trend of human progress is always up. However, the development path is not a straight line, but never so, except to eliminate one of the natural law of human nature. Ask any archaeologist. He knows. ?