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China under the global financial crisis response strategy - especially Chinese Financial Forum 2009 Wang, Meng Qingfeng finishing Insurance Institute of China Network ? January 10, 2009, special Chinese Financial Forum successfully held in Beijing. The theme of this forum in China under the global crisis response strategy by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Forum Institute of Finance, China Insurance Regulatory Commission Policy Research and the Special China co-sponsored post-doctoral research station, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, Hua property Insurance Company co. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Li Yang, director of Institute of Finance hosted the Forum, the NPC Financial and Economic Committee Vice Chairman Wu Xiaoling, the World Bank East Asia and Pacific region, chief financial experts Wang Jun, deputy director of the CASS Institute of Finance Wang Songqi, China Insurance Regulatory Commission Chen, Assistant President of the United States Fred Hu, Managing Director of Goldman Sachs Asia, Greater China CEO Roland Berger regular Bo Yi and Beijing Institute of Special Chinese Finance Professor Li Maosheng gave a keynote speech, respectively. Zheng Xinli, deputy director of the Central Policy Research Office, the National Development and Reform Commission land development and regional economic Xiao Jincheng, deputy director of the Institute commented so to speak. The Forum postdoctoral guidance experts (in alphabetical order): Wang Yiming, Wang Taiyuan, Wang Jun, Wang Jian, Wang Songqi, Lorraine Wang, Wang Duo, Wang Wen, Wang Li, Lod of, Jian-Ping Shi, Tian Jin, Yuan Liu, Sun Haiquan, Mi Jianguo, Hesheng Ming, Wu Xiaoping, Wu Xiaoling, Zhang Dongsheng, Guang-Rong Li, Li Yang, Mao-Sheng Li, Xiao Jincheng, Exploration Engineering, Chen, Chen Dong-sheng, Chen Xiwen, thoughtful Xu, Meng Yan, Zheng Xinli, Nanjing Ming, Jiang Yang, Jian Hu , HU Zhao Guang, HU Man-chuen, Tang Shuangning, A Talk Xuxin Zhong, Aohui Cheng, Jin Baoping, Yuan Li, Chuan-Jie, Liang Qi, Huang Xiangping, Lai Xiaomin, Cai Esheng, Pan Chenguang, Huoxue Wen, Dai, and from government financial regulation departments, other ministries, the business community, the media, well-known universities and research institutes of special guests, special Chinese post-doctoral post-doctoral research station more than 350 people. Focusing on the theme &quot;China under the global financial crisis, coping strategies,&quot; the subject, on the following issues discussed in depth: the global financial crisis, the United States and Western Europe, major changes in the financial system and trends of this global financial crisis of rational thinking and re-understanding of the crisis facing the Chinese economy under the difficulties and problems in China under the global financial crisis response strategies. First, the financial crisis the United States and Europe to many major changes in the financial system has undergone United States, Fred Hu, Managing Director of Goldman Sachs Asia that the crisis lasted longer, pervasiveness, against destructive large indeed with 1929 ~ 1933 compared to the Great Depression, many important phenomena, issues need our attention, we need to learn. Now that the crisis should be at the third stage. The first stage is the initial crisis, starting from February 2007 until February 2008; the second phase is from March 2008 until September 2008; third stage is from after October 2008. This is from the spread of the crisis itself, the extent and nature of deterioration, evolution to changes in the way governments for disposal of the. Currently, the third phase, still have great uncertainty, despite their banks made Henduo response measures, investment and a lot of structured products, Dan the credit market, stock market has Meiyou full recovery, Feichangdimi. Global commodity markets including crude oil, natural gas, precious metals, currency fluctuations are rapid, there are many uncertainties. Can be said that the financial crisis has seriously hit the real economy, the world&#39;s major economies, the United States, European Union, Japan&#39;s economic recession, the major emerging market, India, Russia, Brazil, South Korea, are suffering heavy losses, it is impossible in the short term. But I can see is that by adjusting the Western financial system, reorganization, shrinking the balance sheet of assets and liabilities during a variety of ways such as self-recovery. There are three more important trend is beginning to emerge. One of the trends: under crisis, the financial sector and further mergers and consolidation This could see many important cases, in the United States, JP Morgan Chase acquisition of Bear Stearns, the rich in the fourth quarter acquisition of the Washington Department of Banking. In Europe, the UK&#39;s biggest mortgage bank acquired another bank. Germany&#39;s second-largest bank and third largest bank mergers and acquisitions, Paris, France, Fortis Bank and National Bank merger. Financial Institutions Merger trend is global, and very obvious. Western financial system was already very high market concentration, through the crisis much higher concentration. The second trend: the crisis under the nationalization of the financial industry to speed up the process of Originally a market economy country, the financial sector on behalf of the core of the market economy should be free competition, characterized by private property. Financial crisis, the United States, United Kingdom, continental Europe to start the universality of the government holding shares or financial institutions. The first start is the British government supervision from a bank, the United States began to take over two rooms institutions, AIG. Britain&#39;s Royal Bank of Scotland shares Holdings, Fortis Bank, etc. there. Switzerland, UBS is holding the government authorities. After the outbreak of the crisis, government equity participation and holding of financial institutions is forced, helpless, reluctant, is the confidence crisis, collapse of the case, in order to stabilize the financial system before taking this step. Needless to say, this nationalization is temporary, transitional, not permanent. This program can be seen from the shares is very clear. Basically, a tool rarely used common stock, most of them are preferred. Start time of the payment of interest rate is relatively low, if not more than five years, financial institutions ability to repay, then pay interest rates of more than 5%. Its purpose is to encourage financial institutions to become more robust in this way, the taxpayers money back as soon as the government. The third trend: the crisis under the enhanced financial supervision Since 1984, the world&#39;s financial regulatory provisions of the Basel Accord, basically as the regulatory system, which is a very good basis, the effect is also very good. However, there are many defects in this regulation, the focus on liquidity risk and counterparty risk constraints. Today, a systemic financial crisis, not a Securities Regulatory Commission or the Insurance Regulatory Commission and China Banking Regulatory Commission alone can handle. The central bank as lender of last resort from the macro level how the coordination, which has caused concern. Paulson in late 2006 proposed a blueprint for financial reform in the United States, which refers to the United States needs a unified regulatory system for macro-control unit, he was recommended to the Fed as a regulator on the core. He also mentioned that a global monitoring. In today&#39;s era of globalization, global coordination and monitoring how the British Prime Minister Gordon Brown made the second Bretton Woods system, want to do a global regulation. But this needs to be seen. Second, this global financial crisis awareness and rational thinking and re- (A) how awareness of the crisis World Bank East Asia and Pacific region, chief financial expert Wang Jun, admitted in his keynote address, this financial crisis to the impact of large countries, unprecedented, vast majority of Wall Street banks and national regulators do not respond to the Great Depression of the last financial experience, know very place. Wang Jun, specifically in China, there is even more worrying things. Large number of officials and scholars, on the financial crisis in the United States, a respected financial regulatory system was the kingdom of knowledge is too simple, or even that China&#39;s financial regulatory system is superior than the West. These findings give the impression that our current financial supervision is the best in the world. In fact, we learn from the West, especially to the United States has not completed the learning process. Innovations in financial instruments such as factoring, reverse factoring, according to Internet e-factoring, financing of SMEs in solving these are very important. (B) where the development of the crisis will The current financial crisis in the end will be where to develop? Everybody said he has no bottom. From the intuitive point of view, through this crisis will be very difficult. The banking sector, the normal situation has been very difficult to lend to the thousands of businesses, industries have repayment ability and the will of the people singled out repayment easier said than done, are filled with the next in the normal kinds of risk, under the crisis, good business is not so good, and bad business has been worse, the situation more difficult. Some economists predict that China after the first quarter of 2009, &quot;V&quot; type inflection point will appear, Wang Jun saying that this is too optimistic, this global financial crisis will last a very long time. Issued from the domestic financial 30 also do not see the hope of reversing the trend. Now stop to consider China&#39;s economic growth forecast to 7%, 8%, which is unrealistic, but should not be. Wang Jun also believes that the current financial crisis is still spread, we must adapt to this trend, should make some real closure of insolvent enterprises and banks, and then let the new mechanism established. But this is not easy, in general, in times of crisis should take &quot;counter-cyclical&quot; policy, but the words of the next three to five years effective, then what order to the crisis, &quot;counter-cyclical&quot; to the time to take more rigorous, prudent policies, the situation more difficult. Bank regulators, financial policy makers are not allowed to adopt a &quot;countercyclical&quot; policy. (C) the impact of the crisis, to what extent Roland Berger, President Greater China, Mr. Chang Yi Bo that the impact of the crisis, the next step there is the possibility of continued deterioration. Primary reason is that the real estate recession, particularly in the United States, its duration and depth can not expect. Second, the financial leverage to a large extent led to the rapid expansion of real estate, in the end how much of this leverage, what point in the balance, or need to be observed. There are many financial institutions and banks through loans to acquire assets, the market value of their losses are still not completely exposed. Indeed the future is full of a lot of unknown, although we know that this crisis will not lead to as large in 1929 ~ 1933, as the impact of depression, because national welfare system and security system were complete than many, but many still unknown. Also, as leverage in reverse cycle operation, the future will be inflation or deflation, there are many unpredictable factors, including the national Government to increase spending and inject liquidity, a lot of measures on the potential impact of future inflation, is also unknown. In the future if the real estate market downturn, they will continue to drag on the economy, now is hard to predict, as the crisis continues to spread. (D) whether the crisis more than 1,933 years the Great Depression Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Wang Songqi, deputy director of Institute of Finance, that this crisis has demonstrated the impact of the last major crisis, compared can find some worthy of thought. 1929 ~ 1933, the crisis was no system of national accounts, there is no such indicators GDP, the U.S. economy is the best time to 1929, when the country&#39;s national income to 87 billion U.S. dollars, to 1930 is 75 billion U.S. dollars, 1931 in 69 billion U.S. dollars, 42 billion U.S. dollars in 1932, 1933, fell to low is 39 billion U.S. dollars. Unemployment rate, the U.S. employed population in 1929 to 4 5 million, to 1933, the national unemployment is at 1 400 million, the unemployment rate nearly 1 / 3. The current financial crisis, the U.S. unemployment rate is now less than 8%, the United States actually have a sound social security system, with a very comprehensive policy system. There is also a more coordinated global unified anti-crisis actions. Summing up, we may determine, this crisis was not like 1929 ~ 1933, the crisis so great. The whole social security system, crisis response capabilities, national infrastructure, including &quot;Obama Maxin Zheng&quot;, all reference to the time when Roosevelt&#39;s experience, and certainly more than Roosevelt&#39;s place. Therefore, the crisis appears to reverse after 2010. (E) the root of the crisis in the end what is Zheng Xinli, deputy director of the Central Policy Research that the longer the financial crisis, it needs at least two years before they may be bottoming out warmer. The root causes of this financial crisis issue. Recently some Western economists have a view that the root causes of the financial crisis in China, they put the United States subprime mortgage crisis caused by the financial crisis was due to Lai to China&#39;s head. U.S. economist Joseph Stiglitz on the causes of the financial crisis has a clear judgments, and that is the government&#39;s economic policy errors, the performance of one of its blind worship of the market that the market can self-repair; Second, the financial derivatives Commodities lack of supervision. American system of banking supervision should be said that it is quite perfect, but the regulation of financial derivatives is a blank. Some men of insight to make recommendations to the Government on many occasions regulation of financial derivatives, but whenever the regulation of financial derivatives such laws in parliament, when the United States, Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, the conduct of these interest groups lobby, and finally to the law can not be passed, the lack of regulation is an important reason leading to the financial crisis. Zheng believes that the root causes of the financial crisis lies in the monetary policy mistakes. Monetary policy, focusing only on low interest rates, did not think was due to low interest rates caused imports of cheap Chinese products, the use of funds in China has brought low interest rates. U.S. newspaper that the crisis stems from developing countries, the BRICs, especially China. For this view we have to be rejected, they say this may have some purpose. April 2009 the Group of 20 summit will be held the summit to formulate some measures to reform the international financial and monetary system. This contradiction is not trying to blame the Chinese head for China to assume more responsibility to pressure the Chinese to pay the financial crisis for the United States do? For this we must have a clear understanding. (Turn next) ? Source: &quot;Insurance of&quot; No. 3, 2009 ?
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