Mark Judd Scott Wilson by ezw15872

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									              Mark Judd
             Scott Wilson

 The DfT Air Passenger Forecasting Model
 Taking Forward the 2003 UK Air Transport
White Paper
2003 UK White Paper

         •   Last Aviation White Paper was
             Airports Policy published in 1985
         •   Runway Capacity to Serve the
             South East (RUCATSE) started in
             1990 to consider an additional
             runway in the South East. The
             options suggested were rejected
             in 1995
         •   Clear excess demand for Air
             Traffic but no new runway in
             South East (except London City)
             since World War II
         •   Provide a clear framework for the
             development of Air Transport over
             the next 30 years.
   Proposals in the White Paper

• Maximum use of existing infrastructure
• Increased capacity through new runways
  at
     •   London Stansted
     •   London Heathrow (subject to environmental impacts)
     •   Birmingham
     •   Edinburgh
     •   London Gatwick (if and only if environmental
         conditions at LHR are not met)
           South East Proposals

• The additional runways at Stansted and
  Heathrow have significant economic benefits
     • The dominant costs are those associated with global
       emissions, the costs associated with LAQ and noise are
       in comparison negligible
• LAQ issues at Heathrow may prevent
  expansion
     • Possibility of a congestion charge to reduce surface
       access traffic volumes
     • Need to encourage the use of public transport for
       surface access journeys
                         DfT’s Model




•   The DfT model considers passengers from each district in the UK
    flying to each region of the World
•   The demand for Air Travel is also decomposed
          • By Range - Domestic, Short Haul and Long Haul
          • By Passenger Type - Business and Leisure
          • By Flight Type - Scheduled, Charter and No Frills Carrier (NFC)
•   The model contains a new route generator and also can be calibrated
    to represent a wide variety of growth scenarios
•   Latest version of model takes account of changes in the aviation
    market since 2000, eg high NFC growth
   DfT’s Air Passenger Forecast
               Model

• Multinomial Logit Model using
  Generalised Cost parameters to assign
  passengers to airports.
• Generalised costs include
     •   Surface Access Costs
     •   Frequency and Range of available Flights
     •   Fares on specific routes
     •   Shadow Costs (Fare premia)
                                         Model Details

                                  1 Cost ( i , j , A )              P – Probability of use of airport
                            e
P(i , j , A, p )                                                      i- passengers with a given UK origin/destination

                                e
                                             1 Cost ( i , j , R )   and purpose (p)
                                                                       j- foreign destination
                                                                       A-UK airport/route
                     R  all available Routes                          Cost- Generalised Cost



       • The Model calculates the probability that a specific airport is used
         given the type of demand and the regional origin of the demand.
       • Business passengers have a much higher value of time than leisure
         passengers.
       • This allows the aggregation of figures by airport and analysis of the
         origin of passengers at a specific airport.
Users

  • Government

     • DfT, Treasury, Defra

  • Civil Aviation Authority

  • Airports

  • Regional Bodies (Govt offices, SEEDA, tie)

  • Consultants
Unconstrained Demand Forecasts

                            Actual and forecast numbers of passengers at UK                                    • In 2003 demand
                                          airports: 1990 to 2030
                                                                                                                 for air travel was
                       700
                                                                                                                 200 mppa.
                       600
                                                                                                               • In 2004 demand
 Millions passengers




                       500

                       400
                                                                                               Low               was 216 mppa
                                                                                               Medium

                       300
                                                                                               High
                                                                                               Historic Data
                                                                                                               • The mid point
                       200                                                                                       forecast is for
                       100                                                                                       demand to reach
                         0                                                                                        • 400 mppa by 2020
                        91
                              94
                                   97
                                        00
                                             03
                                                  06
                                                       09
                                                            12
                                                                 15
                                                                      18
                                                                           21
                                                                                24
                                                                                     27
                                                                                          30




                                                                                                                  • 500 mppa by 2030
                       19
                             19
                                  19
                                       20
                                            20
                                                 20
                                                      20
                                                           20
                                                                20
                                                                     20
                                                                          20
                                                                               20
                                                                                    20
                                                                                         20




                                                            Years
     Basis for Demand Forecasts
• Unconstrained forecasts have no limits on
  passenger capacity or Air Traffic Movements
  (ATMs) at airports or in airspace
• Econometric forecasts based on historic data
  back to early 1970s
         Domestic and Foreign Economic Growth
         World Trade
         Air Fares
         Exchange Rates
  • Increasing market maturity is assumed
         Income elasticity of demand for air travel decreases over
          time
  • Price elasticity of demand has lesser impact
                       Assumptions
Real GDP growth assumptions (% change p.a.)
                 UK     W Europe     OECD NIC                    LDC

2002-15                  2.25    2.1             2.7     5.0       4.9
2016-20                  2.25    2.1             2.7     3.0       4.0

Most significant determinant :Market maturity means declining income
  elasticities over time

Business markets – often constant elasticities' log-log models
Leisure markets – often declining elasticities
      Performance of 1991, 1994 and 1997
           forecasts at all UK airports

170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
      1989    1990   1991   1992   1993   1994      1995     1996   1997   1998

         Actual             1997 Low             1997 High           1994 High
         1994 Low           1991 Low             1991 High
             Recent Composition of Demand

                                                                                        • Demand ‘Gap’ due to
                               Composition of Demand
                                                                                          economic slowdown and
           220                                                                            Foot & Mouth, 9/11 and
Millions




           200
                                                                                          SARS after 2001
           180
           160                                                                          • Growth to 2004 in line with
           140
                                                                                          2000 National Forecast
           120
           100                                                                          • Rapid recent growth in
            80                                                                            NFCs
            60
            40                                                                          • No growth in scheduled
            20                                                                            services both domestic and
             0
                 1998   1999        2000        2001      2002        2003       2004
                                                                                          international 2001-2003
                        Residual                       Domestic Scheduled               • Some recovery of
                        International Charter          International Scheduled            scheduled and long haul
                        Domestic NFC                   International NFC
                        DETR 2000 Unconstrained
                                                                                          services 2004
                                                                                        • Signs of market maturity for
                                                                                          domestic NFCs
                              The SPASM Process



                                                                            Runway and Terminal Capacity


National Econometric
Forecasts
                          Surface Access to Airports




                                                       Networks and Flights Times




                       80 UK and World Destinations

Distribution of UK Demand by Purpose                                            Consistent Forecasts for all Major Airports
   Results Generated from SPASM

       Passenger                        Larame Graphs and              Air Traffic Movements
        Numbers
          ``````````                       Load Factors
                                                                       (by route, airport, year, and seat band)
   (by route, airport, and year)

             Mode Share Models
                                                                                      Fleet Replacement
                                                                                            Models
  Surface
                                   Aircraft and Engine
  Access                                   Type
                                   (eg 747-400, 7E7, A321, A380 etc)                           Safety

  Local Air                             ANCON

Quality (LAQ)                                                                             Air
                                                                                         Space
                             Noise                      Global
                            Contours                   Emissions
Modelling the Relationship Between
Demand and Plane Size

                                    Larame Graph 27: Domestic at Small Airports
                             6,000
Annual ATMs (Frequency)




                             5,000                                                                           Plane Size=151


                             4,000                                                   3,931          3,860
                                                                                                3,792

                                                                        Plane Size=92
                             3,000
                                                                             2,749


                             2,000                          2,078


                                              Plane Size=34
                             1,000

                                        450
                                    0
                          -50,000       50,000    150,000     250,000     350,000     450,000      550,000     650,000   750,000

                                                                         Seats
Implications of Demand Forecasts

 • Economic Benefits are maximised when new
   runway capacity is located in areas where high
   levels of demand are most prevalent
 • This is largely due to the lion share of benefits
   being the benefits to passengers
       • Generated Passengers are those who could not previously
         travel but can after development due to lower generalised
         costs
       • Spillover Passengers who previously had to travel to less
         preferred airports can now travel from more suitable airports
         decreasing their generalised costs of travel
       • Existing Passengers benefit from a greater frequency of
         flights now available
Total UK Air Traffic Demand by District
and Use of Heathrow
        Environmental Impacts

• Local Issues
     • Competing Land Uses
     • Noise Pollution
     • Local Air Quality (LAQ)
• Global Issues
     • Global Emissions including Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
       Emissions
       Departure Track Calculation
                               "Tracker"

• SPASM ATM by seat band
  forecasts
• Current fleet mix at each
  airport for each seat band
  and class of traffic
• Fleet replacement model
  for each seat band
                                      LHR Easterly Ops
• Annual to July Factors
• 16 hour arrival and
  departure pattern by route
• Availability of SIDs from
  each runway


                                       LHR Westerly Ops
Heathrow Noise Contours
             The Path Ahead

• Project Sustainable Development of Heathrow
  and Project Stansted G2
• BAA's Heathrow Mixed Mode Proposals
• Prepare to include aviation in a European
  Emissions Trading Scheme
• Monitor and encourage blight and noise
  mitigation schemes
• Airport Master Plans
• 2006 White Paper Review
Thank you

								
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