Geopolitics and Globalization in the 21 st Century Parag Khanna Senior Research Fellow Director, Global Governance Initiative, American Strategy Program New America Foundation Geopolitics: Empires, Superpowers, and Balancers “The Big Three” (Empires/Superpowers) - The United States - The European Union - China The “Swing States” (Balancers) - Russia - India - Japan “Regional Powers”: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Iran, South Africa, Nigeria, Australia “The Big Three”: The U.S. Share of global GDP (PPP): 21% Share of military spending 48% Share of R&D 30% Share of global FX holdings in USD 64% Share of goods exports 14% Share of goods imports 21% Share of FDI inflows 13% Share of FDI outflows 18% Population 5% “The Big Three”: The E.U. Share of global GDP (PPP): 23% Share of military spending 20% Share of R&D 24% Share of global FX holdings in EUR 27% Share of goods exports 42% Share of goods imports 43% Share of FDI inflows 41% Share of FDI outflows 47% Population 7% “The Big Three”: China Share of global GDP (PPP) 11% Share of military spending 8% Share of R&D 18% Total FX reserves at end-2007 US$1.53 trillion Share of goods exports 8% Share of goods imports 7% Share of FDI inflows 5% Share of FDI outflows 1% Population 20% “Swing States” – Balancers Russia - Pros: Gazprom, political stability - Cons: oil price volatility, demographics, governance India - Pros: private sector, US alliance - Cons: poverty, corruption Japan - Pros: economy, innovation - Cons: demographics, insularity World War… ? Early 19th Century: Napoleonic War Early 20th Century: WWI, WWII Early 21st Century: U.S. vs. China? …and the Winner is… ? Globalization A force more powerful… ? Economic Integration - “Siamese triplets” - U.S.-China : U.S. is China’s largest export market - Transatlantic area: World’s largest trading zone - China - E.U.: E.U. is China’s largest trading partner Political Integration - Democratization - 123 electoral democracies in 2007 vs. fewer than 70 in the 1980s Demographic Integration - Blending - U.S.-Latin America: Latinos are 14% of the total U.S. population (expected to grow to 29% by 2050) - E.U.-Arab world: 50% of first-generation Arab emigrants go to Europe - China - Asia: 35 million overseas Chinese across East Asia, with disproportionate wealth and influence (e.g. 1% of Philippines population, but control 60% of the economy) …or an Imperial Enterprise? The web of globalization has multiple spiders Countries were once conquered, now they are bought Competition for oil, gas, and water Control of SLOCs Rivalry for allies and influence Pan-Regions Strategic Intrusions Competing for “The Second World” Eastern Europe : Russia, Ukraine, Balkans, Turkey, Caucasus Central Asia : Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan Latin America: Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, Brazil, Chile Middle East: Morocco, Libya, Egypt, Levant, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran South/East Asia: Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, India Eastern Europe From Soviet red to Euro blue Russia: EU member or Chinese petro- vassal Ukraine: Mitteleuropa or Osteuropa Turkey: “Marching east to west” or neo- Ottomanism Balkans: Member-state-building Caucasus: The cork in the Caspian Central Asia Silk Road vs. Great Game Kazakhstan: “Happiness is multiple pipelines” Uzbekistan: The Silk Road’s blocked artery Afghanistan: Taming south-central Asia Pakistan: “The most dangerous country in the world” Latin America End of the Monroe Doctrine? Mexico: NAFTA plus Venezuela: Bolivar’s revenge Colombia: The Andean Balkans Brazil: The Southern Pole Chile: Entering the First World Middle East Arabism vs. Islamism Morocco: Greater Mediterranean Union Libya: From green to blue Egypt: Bureaucrats and theocrats Levant: Road maps Iraq: Buffer, black hole, and broken boundary Saudi Arabia: Gulf streams UAE: Las Vegas meets Singapore Iran: Virtues and vices South/East Asia Greater Chinese Co-prosperity Sphere Malaysia and Indonesia: Playing all sides Thailand and Vietnam: The inner triangle India: Looking east Japan, Korea, and Australia: China’s first world seduction The New Geo-Psychology From Non-alignment to Multi-alignment Doing it “Our Way” The New Regionalism The Anti-imperial Belt South-South cooperation Hot Spots Iraq Iran/Straits of Hormuz Israel/Palestine Gulf of Aden Afghan-Pakistan border North Korea Straits of Malacca Hot Issues Economic imbalances Terrorism Energy security Climate Sovereign Wealth Funds Poverty Failed States The New Global Governance Adjusting to geopolitical dynamics Globalization and the diffusion of power Where dot.gov meets dot.com meets dot.org What about the United Nations? Security Council: Reform, expansion, legitimacy Peacekeeping (DPKO) Specialized Agencies: UNDP, OCHA, UNHCR, WFP, UNICEF, etc. Bretton Woods: IMF, World Bank, IFC, ILO New Partnerships: Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria; Global Compact The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Multilateral Maze Financial Stability Forum Bank for International Settlements (BIS) G8 G20 OECD International Criminal Court Interpol Organization of American States (OAS) Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) The New Diplomacy World Economic Forum International Chamber of Commerce Independent NGOs: Soros/Open Society Institute, Amnesty International, Greenpeace, Gates Foundation Public-Private Partnerships: World Commission on Dams, Forestry Stewardship Council, Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), Global Reporting Initiative Global Action Networks: World Social Forum, Ethical Globalization Initiative, The Climate Group, The World Conservation Union (IUCN) “How to Run the World” Bottom-up, then scale-up Comparative advantage and division of labor Global network governance Mutual accountability "Power to the People"