Geopolitics and Globalization in

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					Geopolitics and Globalization
    in the 21 st Century

                  Parag Khanna
             Senior Research Fellow
      Director, Global Governance Initiative,
           American Strategy Program

               New America Foundation
Empires, Superpowers, and Balancers
   “The Big Three” (Empires/Superpowers)
    - The United States
    - The European Union
    - China
   The “Swing States” (Balancers)
    - Russia
    - India
    - Japan
   “Regional Powers”: Brazil, Saudi Arabia,
    Iran, South Africa, Nigeria, Australia
    “The Big Three”: The U.S.
   Share of global GDP (PPP):           21%
   Share of military spending           48%
   Share of R&D                         30%
   Share of global FX holdings in USD   64%
   Share of goods exports               14%
   Share of goods imports               21%
   Share of FDI inflows                 13%
   Share of FDI outflows                18%
   Population                           5%
    “The Big Three”: The E.U.
   Share of global GDP (PPP):           23%
   Share of military spending           20%
   Share of R&D                         24%
   Share of global FX holdings in EUR   27%
   Share of goods exports               42%
   Share of goods imports               43%
   Share of FDI inflows                 41%
   Share of FDI outflows                47%
   Population                           7%
      “The Big Three”: China
   Share of global GDP (PPP)            11%
   Share of military spending           8%
   Share of R&D                         18%
   Total FX reserves at end-2007   US$1.53 trillion
   Share of goods exports               8%
   Share of goods imports               7%
   Share of FDI inflows                 5%
   Share of FDI outflows                1%
   Population                           20%
“Swing States” – Balancers
   Russia
    - Pros: Gazprom, political stability
    - Cons: oil price volatility, demographics, governance
   India
    - Pros: private sector, US alliance
    - Cons: poverty, corruption
   Japan
    - Pros: economy, innovation
    - Cons: demographics, insularity
            World War… ?

   Early 19th Century: Napoleonic War
   Early 20th Century: WWI, WWII
   Early 21st Century: U.S. vs. China?

        …and the    Winner is… ?
      A force more powerful… ?
   Economic Integration - “Siamese triplets”
     - U.S.-China : U.S. is China’s largest export market
     - Transatlantic area: World’s largest trading zone
     - China - E.U.: E.U. is China’s largest trading partner

   Political Integration - Democratization
     - 123 electoral democracies in 2007 vs. fewer than 70 in the 1980s

   Demographic Integration - Blending
     - U.S.-Latin America: Latinos are 14% of the total U.S. population
        (expected to grow to 29% by 2050)
     - E.U.-Arab world: 50% of first-generation Arab emigrants go to Europe
     - China - Asia: 35 million overseas Chinese across East Asia, with
        disproportionate wealth and influence (e.g. 1% of Philippines
        population, but control 60% of the economy)
    …or an Imperial Enterprise?
   The web of globalization has multiple spiders
   Countries were once conquered, now they are
   Competition for oil, gas, and water
   Control of SLOCs
   Rivalry for allies and influence
Strategic Intrusions
Competing for “The Second World”

   Eastern Europe : Russia, Ukraine, Balkans,
                     Turkey, Caucasus
   Central Asia :   Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,
                     Afghanistan, Pakistan
   Latin America:   Mexico, Venezuela,
                     Colombia, Brazil, Chile
   Middle East:     Morocco, Libya, Egypt,
                     Levant, Iraq, Saudi Arabia,
                     UAE, Iran
   South/East Asia: Malaysia, Indonesia,
                     Thailand, Vietnam, India
           Eastern Europe
     From Soviet red to Euro blue
   Russia: EU member or Chinese petro-
   Ukraine: Mitteleuropa or Osteuropa
   Turkey: “Marching east to west” or neo-
   Balkans: Member-state-building
   Caucasus: The cork in the Caspian
              Central Asia
       Silk Road vs. Great Game
   Kazakhstan: “Happiness is multiple
   Uzbekistan: The Silk Road’s blocked artery
   Afghanistan: Taming south-central Asia
   Pakistan: “The most dangerous country in
    the world”
            Latin America
     End of the Monroe Doctrine?
   Mexico: NAFTA plus
   Venezuela: Bolivar’s revenge
   Colombia: The Andean Balkans
   Brazil: The Southern Pole
   Chile: Entering the First World
                Middle East
          Arabism vs. Islamism
   Morocco: Greater Mediterranean Union
   Libya: From green to blue
   Egypt: Bureaucrats and theocrats
   Levant: Road maps
   Iraq: Buffer, black hole, and broken boundary
   Saudi Arabia: Gulf streams
   UAE: Las Vegas meets Singapore
   Iran: Virtues and vices
           South/East Asia
Greater Chinese Co-prosperity Sphere

   Malaysia and Indonesia: Playing all sides
   Thailand and Vietnam: The inner triangle
   India: Looking east
   Japan, Korea, and Australia: China’s first
    world seduction
    The New Geo-Psychology
   From Non-alignment to Multi-alignment
   Doing it “Our Way”
   The New Regionalism
   The Anti-imperial Belt
   South-South cooperation
               Hot Spots
   Iraq
   Iran/Straits of Hormuz
   Israel/Palestine
   Gulf of Aden
   Afghan-Pakistan border
   North Korea
   Straits of Malacca
              Hot Issues
   Economic imbalances
   Terrorism
   Energy security
   Climate
   Sovereign Wealth Funds
   Poverty
   Failed States
The New Global Governance

   Adjusting to geopolitical dynamics
   Globalization and the diffusion of power
   Where meets meets
What about the United Nations?
   Security Council: Reform, expansion, legitimacy
   Peacekeeping (DPKO)
   Specialized Agencies: UNDP, OCHA, UNHCR, WFP,
    UNICEF, etc.
   Bretton Woods: IMF, World Bank, IFC, ILO
   New Partnerships:
    Global Fund to Fight AIDS,
    Tuberculosis, and Malaria;
    Global Compact
   The Millennium
    Development Goals (MDGs)
           Multilateral Maze
   Financial Stability Forum
   Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
   G8
   G20
   OECD
   International Criminal Court
   Interpol
   Organization of American States (OAS)
   Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
   European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
         The New Diplomacy
   World Economic Forum
   International Chamber of Commerce
   Independent NGOs: Soros/Open Society Institute,
    Amnesty International, Greenpeace, Gates Foundation
   Public-Private Partnerships: World Commission on
    Dams, Forestry Stewardship Council, Extractive
    Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), Global
    Reporting Initiative
   Global Action Networks: World Social Forum, Ethical
    Globalization Initiative, The Climate Group, The World
    Conservation Union (IUCN)
    “How to Run the World”
   Bottom-up, then scale-up
   Comparative advantage and
    division of labor
   Global network governance
   Mutual accountability
   "Power to the People"