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					Arms and Conflict Dynamics




       COST Conference, 17 March 2008, Brussels
           Eric G Berman, Small Arms Survey
                  Outline
   Intentional transfers by states

   Unintentional transfers by states

   Recovery of weapons: within DDR

   Recovery of weapons: amongst civilians
Intentional
 Transfers:

Proxy Wars in
 the Horn of
    Africa

(1960s onwards)

HSBA Sudan Issue Brief Number 6
April 2007
    Unintentional
     Transfers
   From poorly
    planned DDR
    initiatives
   From neighboring
    countries’ armed
    forces
   From peacekeepers
   From armed groups
Jean-Pierre Bemba and his MLC
DDR: “Lessons
     Learned”
     Identifying
      combatants

     Destroying
      weapons

     Targeting
      ammunition

     Realistic
      reintegration
      schemes
        Civilian Disarmament:
Good Intentions – Troubling Results . . .
                        SPLA-led coercive
                         disarmament efforts in
                         Jonglei state (2005-2006)
                            3,700+ weapons recovered
                            1,800+ dead
                        UN-led “voluntary”
                         disarmament efforts in
                         Jonglei state (2006 and 2007)
                            3,000+ weapons recovered
                            0 dead
Jonglei State
     Questions?




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