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Fan Gang, Monetary Policy Committee (Data Chart)
Quietly withdrew or slowly fine-tuning, this is the central economic work conference
in December to address the problem. It is understood that "structural
adjustment, anti-inflation" will be the focus of the meeting.
In the eve of the meeting, the central bank monetary committee Fan Gang,
BOC's chief economist Cao Yuan Zheng, China Center for Economic
Research of Peking University Lu Feng, deputy director of the Shenzhen
Comprehensive Development Research Institute, etc. gathered in Silver Lake Forum.
In the internal forum, Fan Gang admitted that "we can avoid talking about
the current policy of withdrawal." Scholars for the next policy fine-tuning
that may be expected. The exchange rate reform, or become the next step to adjust the
focus.
Fine-tune the swing
Yesterday, Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated the Chinese government will maintain
economic growth, economic restructuring and management of inflation expectations
to find the appropriate balance between. Wen said the Chinese government will
continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary
policy.
But the market has gradually adapted to be carried out fine-tuned. "When
in a stable macroeconomic policy, and now 'line two' have been
in that swing to 'fine tune', and the fine-tuning efforts is
considerable." Internal forum in Silver Lake, Peking University, deputy
director of China Center for Economic Research Lu Feng expressed "very
interesting."
Lu Feng said that changes in macroeconomic policy is basically stable in summer. To
the Davos meeting, in particular to the recent State Council executive meeting started
to look at inflation, so I think actually in the formulation of macroeconomic policy
has been a significant change occurred.
In particular, attention is caused by Lu Feng, the CBRC has formally issued a
"supplementary capital of commercial banks on the perfect mechanism for
notification." The "notice", said the July 1, 2009
after the bank held by other banks long-term subordinated debt deducted from their
capital in full. Such as the public offering of subordinated debt, the national
commercial bank's core capital adequacy ratio of not less than 7%, other
commercial bank's core capital adequacy ratio of no less than 5%.
"I understand the CBRC out that, if true remove the sub-debt, equivalent to
the statutory reserve ratio used to take in the past, in effect, little effect.
China's macro-control is very interesting approach has not changed, but in
fact the angle of operation has been has changed. "The August 26 meeting
of the State Council stressed the excess capacity, according to Lu Feng's
understanding of control is to prepare for investment.
Nankai University, Professor Tang Jie, Vice Mayor of Shenzhen, said the U.S. policy
in the fine-tuning. Fed choose to continue to maintain the federal funds rate to 0.25%
in the zero level of the same, but will buy agency debt reduced in size from 200
billion U.S. dollars to 175 billion U.S. dollars, in order to promote economic stability
and recovery.
Guoxin Securities also analyzed that the exit policy began brewing. October 21 The
State Council executive meeting, the Government has to judge the economic situation
as "good recovery trend to be consolidated", and in the past
repeatedly stressed that "the economy returns to the foundation is not
solid" compared to major changes. Jie He in September the
Government's "pay more attention to ensure growth promote
restructuring, pay more attention to speed up its own innovation, more focus on
strengthening energy-saving environmental protection, more focus on coordinated
development of urban and rural planning and 区 域 ", indicates the
government in the capital growth task is completed, the future exit policy has been put
on the agenda.
Say, "quit" the words
"Now the parties concerned, as far as I know do not want to use
'out' this term, that will affect the market." Economist
Fan Gang said. Cao Yuan Zheng, chief economist at the Bank of China International
as "the normal changes" to understand the current fine-tuning.
Fan Gang said that the policy is not got to stress that macroeconomic policies are
constantly changing, no matter what your word, after all, you got to adjust, do not
adjust will have problems.
Cao Yuan Zheng believes that next year is a positive stimulus in the type of policy
shift toward neutrality policy, if the transfer was a difficulty, or to maintain an active
fiscal policy, but monetary policy has to be Yao neutral pH and the direction of
adjustment, and then to maintain a appropriate location, not blindly relax.
In addition, in this case, taking advantage of the high inflation next year is not the
case, may make an issue of reform, the main resource of energy price system price
system as a resource, or the formation of market-oriented price system for the future
including interest rates to lay the conditions of the exchange rate.
Finally, in 2010 the most important thing is to encourage Chinese enterprises and
Chinese people "going out", and more for foreign exchange, but
you have to control hot money come to live people. Convertibility of the RMB can be
single do first, before he goes out to encourage, manage and go inward, and then
gradually roll.
"It is estimated there will be a moderate policy, or a shift it."
Cao Yuan Zheng suggested that turning should "turn the greater
curvature", not "turning sharp corners." Turn means
greater curvature, should be modest, but more importantly, timing. If the turn too late,
may be a turning sharp corners. Early in the morning, to prepare, may turn to look
larger.
Reduced next year, the financial strength
Fan believes that this year China's prospects for next year terms, three
positive factors, next year will offset the decline in the role of government policy,
support economic growth.
First, real estate investment next year will be even more significant growth than this
year. This is the real estate sales pick up, but the investment has not yet reached the
level to be attained, is recovering. September is the month to reach more than 20%
year on year, but the year is still 10% -13% level, at the end of course to 15%, but
over the years for many years we are 27%, 28%. This year's real estate all
over, fewer new projects, but this year enclosure, opened properties for sale next year
if the return to this level or even higher, which replace part of the government
investment;
In addition, because China is not much excess capacity, so some are beginning to
invest next year. This year's enterprise investment is weak, probably next
year there will be a significant increase.
Exports next year will be a fairly significant support. This replaces the financial
strength, financial strength decrease next year, sure, it is estimated that the absolute
level will be maintained at last year, equivalent to lower absolute levels. Fan Gang,
these three factors that can basically replace, continue to meet about 8%.
Fan Gang said that many companies are now said to the credit as the "Last
Supper", and quickly grab loans, grab the hand again, I feel you there next
year then there is now a part is kept up, no use, no form of this year's actual
purchasing power.
Enterprises increase in time deposits is positive. This money does not constitute
purchasing power this year, this year's 10 trillion credit to constitute the
purchasing power this year, this year, it's terrible. So in this sense, it is
possible a greater risk that, but not necessarily particularly large, but not necessarily
very tight next year's funding. The internal flow process in the bank next
year to 5 trillion in new credit even if I say not as tense.
"Now is the currency of a contraction, it's terrible, how much
should be out, I said not so large, the financial allocation factors into account in place
gradually, not that big." Fan Gang believes that recovery is sustainable, not
a W shape, if the policy continued for one year in 2010, 2011, the Government may
consider out of step by step.
The world in appreciation of the RMB is not moving?
November 11, 2009, the People's Bank has released the third quarter
monetary policy report. CICC Chief Economist Ha Jiming that monetary policy
implementation in this report the largest change in tone, is talking about the next
phase of monetary policy, first time in history did not use the "keep the
RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level of basic stability,
"this sentence, but joined the" combination of international
capital flows and other major currencies, improve the RMB exchange rate formation
mechanism. "
Ha Jiming expected appreciation of the renminbi is expected to restart, time should be
the first quarter of next year, when exports have clearly recovered, the outer pressure
of the demands will be greater appreciation of the RMB. Next year the yuan
appreciate against the dollar throughout the year of 3% -5%.
Fan believes that the most problematic is the exchange rate.
"China's basic policy in the near future no problem, but the
exchange rate policy Queshi now Yao Kaolvtiaozheng Le." Fan Gang Biao
Shi, dollar now fall Zhezhongchengdu, Quanshijiedi currency on the rise, less than
dynamic? And Keneng result in a passive situation, is 2005, the passive situation.
Market pressures so great, then you have to adjust, so you feel under pressure in the
market, under pressure from the United States you adjust it bad.
Fan Gang said that to do something on their own initiative, to do their own breakfast,
a mechanism also has a policy, why not move up slowly? Now pushed the corner.
Fan Gang suggested as in Singapore announced that "a basket"
currency. The goal of a basket of currencies, you can peg to a basket of currencies. A
basket peg policy, there is a good? Is that the public every day looking at a basket, a
basket of currencies has not changed, I at least with the global relationships, which I
can adjust the dollar devaluation, I would at least like other currencies l. This has
weakened the U.S. dollar fixed on live. Because it is always a long-term U.S. dollar
devaluation, you stare at it again, the public are watching it, in fact, the public now
know that our real effective exchange rate has depreciated by how much
psychological pressure that will be smaller. But a stare dollars, psychologically on the
bear.
Lu Feng believes that there should be a flexible exchange rate system, we say in the
textbooks, "the exchange rate is the relative price of the basic open
economy," open for a big country like China's rise, not a relative
price.

				
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posted:8/20/2010
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