Unity or Separation

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					Unity or Separation

  A way towards an independent
  Southern Sudan and beyond…
Sudan 1960-2010
 Gradual independence – 1956 & 2011 & ???

 Special case – double colonialism
Arab – Islam + British – Christian

 How many “Sudans”?

 The debate on Sudanese Identity

 Colonial border and policy problems – heavy
  weight to carry
The CPA (Comprehensive Peace
Agreement) - 2005
 NCP (National Congress Party) & SPLM
  (Sudan’s People Liberation Movement)

 John Garang’s New Sudan - How strong hope
  turned to mistrust?

 Milestones of CPA – failed to make Unity
 Degradation of the Agenda: Preparation for
  Elections and for Referendum
Elections – 11-15 April 2010
 NCP & SPLM strategic partnership - Omar al-
  Bashir & Salva Kiir
 NCP - running from ICC - desperate search for
 SPLM – anything but the referendum
 International Community - Elections did not
  meet international standards, BUT the CPA is
  more important…
 Local and international observers -
  Harassment, arrests, intimidation of voters and
  observers in the North and in the South
Referendum – 9 January 2011
 Preparation – too much to do…

 Border demarcation – finished till November?
 The “three areas” – referendum in Abyei &
  popular consultation in Nuba & Blue Nile
 Voter registration
 Resources division – oil and the river Nile
 Citizenship & Cross border movement
 Agreement on post-referendum arrangements
Secession is unstoppable?

 Who wants to stop it?

 A failed state is about to be born? An argument
  from colonial times?

 The referendum results will be a verdict not
  only for the past 5, but the past 55 years.
Intra-South dynamics
 Ethnic diversity – Dinka, Nuer, Equatorian and
   the others.
 Cattle debates, ethnic violences, rebel
 Jonglei rising? – Athor, Yauyau, who is next?
 Possibility of the extension of local conflicts.
 After secession:
1. Crucial importance of power sharing.
2. Simultan disarmament.
3. Police forces to balance the power of army.
A new state in 2011?
 Referendum or Unilateral declaration of
  independence – the responsibility of
  recognition – No Eritrea-case again!
 Secession as an example?
 Post-referendum arrangements.
 New census to serve as a basis for power share
  / good governance.
 New oil pipes – Lamu?
 Diplomacy and Trade – turn to East Africa…

 International community to give South a

 SPLM to give democracy a chance

 Garang’s dream might not be fulfilled, but
  Southern Sudan has the chance now to build a
  state and a nation.
Sudan in 2060

 Southern Sudan in East Africa?

 Fragmentation of the North
 Darfur (+ Nubians, Bejas…)
 Real Arab-Islamic state for the Riverines?

 End of violence?
Thank you for your Attention!

 Zoltán Illés
 Corvinus University Budapest
 nganaszan@yahoo.com

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