Road Maintenance and the Changing Climate by nne25858

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									Road Maintenance and the Changing Climate

                                     100 Years Ago

                                There were only 8,000 cars
                                 in the U.S., and only 144
                                   miles of paved roads.

                                 The maximum speed limit
                                in most cities was 10 mph.



                               Don MacIver,
                               Heather Auld,
                               Joan Klaassen,
                               Neil Comer
MEETING TAXPAYERS EXPECTATIONS:
  KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY




          • Increasing population and demographics
          • More affluence and property value
          • Increasing urbanization and 24/7
Impacts and Adaptation Science     Solutions:
      providing assistance by making …
   Red River Valley Flood
  RADARSAT Satellite Image
                                                                  • An adjustment in
         Emerson
                           Winnipeg
                                                   Floodway
                                                                       response to
                                                                    actual or expected
                                                                          stimuli
                                    Red River Floodway Inlet
                                                               • Building our adaptive capacity
                                                                by improving our adaptation
         Canada Customs                                          science and partnerships
                                               St. Agathe
                   Brunkild Dyke




                                   Rosenort
                                                                Making decisions and acting
                                                                  sustainably in a complex
                                      Morris                               and
                                                                      changing world
Adaptation Deficit
is increasing
 Global Costs of Great Natural Disasters (1950-2000) in
 US$ Billions, including economic and insured losses



                                 ADAPTATION DEFICIT




(Great natural disasters defined as > 100 deaths and/or US$ 100M in claims)
     Increasing Natural Disaster Losses
        Is Vulnerability of Communities Increasing??

         6
                                           billions of 1999 $
                    economic loss
         5
                    insured loss
         4

         3

         2

         1

         0
             1980         1985      1990         1995       2000


Source: ICLR, based on data from IBC and Emergency Preparedness Canada
Adaptation Options




                     Bear the loss (eg. liability)
                     Prevent the effects (eg. ice removal)
                     Modify the events (eg. salt/sand)
                     Change Behaviour (eg. warnings)
                     Research – (eg. science & technology)
                     Education & outreach
Invest in disaster resilience
The Changing
  Climate
Changes in temperature are unevenly
distributed



                                            Trends for
                                            1950-98




                                Degrees C
                 Trends in extremes

Trend in 5th percentile of daily Tmin
      (Winters, 1900-1998)




                                        Less intense cold



                                        X. Zhang. B. Bonsal, É. Mekis, A. Shabbarand L. Vincent
 Ontario
• GETTING WARMER              WARMER

• NON-LINEAR




                            WARMER
                   LITTLE
                   CHANGE
    Canada is becoming wetter
Percent change in precipitation 1950-98
Ontario
• GETTING WETTER
                     WETTER
• NON-LINEAR




                   WETTER
                    Has the Climate Been Changing in                                                                   Beatrice Annual Precipitation
                                                                                                                                1895-2003
                                                                                                         1800
                         the Georgian Bay Area?




                                                                                Ann Precipitation (mm)
                                                                                                         1600

                                                                                                         1400

                                                                                                         1200

                                                                                                         1000

                                                                                                             800
                                                                                                               1895   1915    1935     1955    1975    1995
                                                                                                                                     Year



                                                                                                                         Since 1895…
Long term Climate Stations

                    14
                                   Wiarton A Annual Temperature
                                                                                                         14
                                                                                                                   Annual Temps warmed
                    12                                 Maximum                                           12             ~ 0.5-1.0 °C
                    10                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                    (Min Temps up to 2 °C)
Temperature ( °C)




                    8                                  Mean                                              8

                    6                                                                                    6

                    4                                                                                    4
                                                                                                                   Annual Precip increased
                    2                                                                                    2               Up to 20%
                    0                                  Minimum                                           0

                    -2                                                                                   -2
                     1895   1915       1935        1955           1975   1995   2003

                                                Year
                    Has the Climate Been Changing in
                                                                                                                            Delhi CDA Annual Precipitation
                          the Long Point Area?                                                                 1400                   1935-2003

                                                                                                               1250




                                                                                      Ann Precipitation (mm)
                                                                                                               1100

                                                                                                                950

                                                                                                                800

                                                                                                                650

                                                                                                                500
                                                                                                                  1935   1945   1955   1965   1975   1985    1995   2005
                                                                                                                                          Year

                             Lake Erie
                                                                                                                                Since 1935…
                    16
                                   Delhi CDA/CS Annual Temperature
                                                                                      16                              Annual Temps warmed
                    14                                      Maximum                   14
                                                                                                                             ~ 0.3°C
                    12                                                                12
                                                                                                                      (Min Temps up to 0.8°C)
Temperature ( °C)




                    10                                        Mean                    10

                    8                                                                 8

                    6
                                                             Minimum
                                                                                      6
                                                                                                                  Annual Precip increased
                                                                                                                         ~ 5-10%
                    4                                                                 4

                    2                                                                 2

                    0                                                                 0
                     1935   1945    1955     1965          1975      1985   1995   2005
                                                    Year
Source: Dianne MacIver, based on daily newspaper archives
from the Dufferin County Museum and Archives
Small Increases = Escalating Infrastructure Damages




    “small increases in weather and climate extremes have
    the potential to bring large increases in damages to
    existing infrastructure”
   DYNAMIC ATMOSPHERE: Energy, Moisture,
                                                   Momentum
     April 21/0000 GMT
                           July 9/1800 GMT




                               Satellite Imagery
       RCTO
Surface Weather Maps



       EC Radar Imagery/
       Derived Products
                                             Britt CAPPI
                                             Aug 1/ 0025Z
Visible impacts
          with extremes…



                                                             forest fires
                                          floods



                       Waves and storms


                                                           droughts, heat spells




Saguenay flooding (1996),
26 millions m3 of water
and 9 millions tons of debris

                                          The Great Ice Storm (1998),1,5 millions
                                           customers without electricity for up to 30 days
Toronto August 19, 2005




                           Finch Avenue
                          During and After
                             the Storm
Impacts of Atmospheric Hazards on
Wind Energy Generation
  GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE




What’s Happening, and What
      Can We Expect
We are not the first to worry about climate change




 “The picture’s pretty bleak,
 gentlemen…The world’s
 climates are changing, the
 mammals are taking over,
 and we all have a brain about
 the size of a walnut.”

               Larson, 1985
International science has provided sound
advice for policy discussions
              Intergovernmental Panel
              on Climate Change

 Cautious    1990   First Report
             1992

             1995
                    Second Report
             1997

Increasing   2001   Third Report
Confidence
Scientists have studied the relationship
between greenhouse gas concentrations
and climate for more than a century
Because humans are changing the
composition of the atmosphere



                             380
  CO2 Concentration (ppmv)




                             360

                             340

                             320
                                   Highest concentration in last 400,000 years
                             300

                             280

                             260
                                900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
A number of human factors may have
affected our climate
                                          3
   Global Mean Radiative Forcing (W/m2)



                                          2


                                                                          Aerosols - direct

                                          1



                                                               Strat.                  Biomass Aerosol
                                                               Ozone Sulphate          Burning - indirect
                                          0
                                               Well    Trop.                    Soot                        Solar
                                               mixed   Ozone
                                               GHGs
                                          -1




                                          -2
                                                                Climate Forcing Factor
Modelled response to all forcings agrees best
with observations
THE CHANGING CLIMATE
Mitigation will slow down the rate and magnitude
of change, but the need to adapt is unavoidable

    Global Temperature Change (degrees C)

                                                         Stabilized at 750 ppm
                                       Baseline
    4



    3

                                                         Stabilized at 550 ppm
    2



    1



    0



           1900              2000                 2100           2200

                                      Year
December-January-February Mean
   Temperature Changes 2020
December-January-February Mean
   Temperature Changes 2080
December-January-February % Change in
          Precipitation 2020
December – January – February % Change in
            Precipitation 2080
     Global Climate Model Projections for
     the 2050s for the Georgian Bay Area

Annual Mean Temps Warming

            2.2 – 4.0 °C




         2.5 – 12%
                             Annual Mean Precip Increasing




   Changes relative to 1961-1990 Baseline Climate
      Scenario data from CGCM2 and HadCM3
NCAR

  Global and Regional Simulations of
              Snowpack
 Climate Change:
Managing Hazards
                       CLIMATE CHANGE
                       Changes in Extremes
         Very Likely
         More extreme maximum temperatures (less extreme mins)
         More intense, more frequent, longer lasting heat waves
         More intense, more frequent precipitation events


Likely

   Increased frequency, severity of drought
   Increases in tropical storms/hurricane wind
   and precipitation intensity
   Increased risk extreme events such as
  tornadoes, hail, lightning, ice storms
Projected Changes in Canadian Extreme Precipitation
                       100

                             1985
                             2050
                        90
                             2090
                                                    2090            2050           1985
                        80
                                         ~ 75 mm
  Size of Event (mm)




                        70




                        60




                        50




                        40
                                    10             20                         40          80

                                                    Recurrence time (years)

Projections of changes in average Canadian extreme 24-hour rainfall events
that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years.
(Canadian Model, CGCM1, with Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse
Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases)
Risk of more severe
storms
Weather Hazard Risk Assessment
         (Vulnerability Assessment)
 Ontario Emergency Management Act
  Involves assessment of risks to weather hazards:
               Fog                    Lightning
               Heavy Rain             Heavy Snow
               Hurricanes             Wind Storms
               Extreme Heat/Cold Ice Storms
               Drought                Tornadoes
                      Extreme Air Quality Events
Hazards Website:   http://www.hazards.ca
Hazard and Impact Risk Assessment (HIRA)
    Community Risk Assessment Grid
                   HELPING
                   MUNICIPALITIES ADAPT




                                   Source:
                                   EMO, 2003
Trends now included…     soon, climate change projections




       1-Day Rainfall                          Cold Nights
           Trends in Climatic Indicators
         Temperature, Precipitation, Air Quality




       Hot Days >30C     Ozone & Hot Days Ontario MOE, 2004
      Atmospheric Hazards - Selection Results
      Map: .Ontario South Boreal(2300)
      Selected 586 places on this map

                  Hail Frequency in Ontario (Etkin) between 0.50 and 2.00 #
Parameters:       Days/Year and Tornado Frequency in Ontario (Newark) between
                  0.80 and 2.40 # Events/Year




 Moderate-High Hail Frequencies
            AND
 Moderate-High Tornado Frequencies
Ice Storm ‘98
Canada’s most costly ($) weather disaster ever
Up to 95 mm of freezing rain accumulation in
3 separate “storms” over 1st week January
Impacted 4 provinces; 7 states
1 million households without power at peak
Collapsed communication towers, electrical
transmission/distribution systems, phone lines
Deaths: 28 in Canada; 19 in U.S.
Ice Storm ’98 was Ontario Ice Storm of:
     Greatest Duration
     Areal Extent
     Ice Accumulation
     Impacts (and hydro downtime)
                         Ice Storm ‘98       24 Ice Storms
                                            (Ontario: 1844-
                                                 2002)
 Duration                   6 days          12 hrs – 4 days
                         (3 “events”)
 Areal Extent            110,000 km2      4,000 - 90,000 km2
 Ice                        95 mm          30 to 70-80 mm
 Accumulation
 Maximum                  3 ½ weeks       <1 day to 2 weeks
 Hydro
 Downtime
                                           Source: Klaassen et al., 2003
   Tracks of Major Ice Storms
Tracks ofthe major ice storms
  which impacted Southern Ontario
    during the period 1948-2002
      which impacted
 Southern/Eastern Ontario                   PERSISTENT
                                            ARCTIC HIGH
During the period 1948-2002




                                                                         1948 Jan 1
                                                                       PERSISTENT
                                                                         1953 Jan 8-9
                                                  Ice Storm ‘98        ARCTIC HIGH
                                                                         1953 Jan 9-10
                                                                                 4
                                                                          1967 Jan 26-27
                                                                          1968 Jan 16
                                    1
                                                                          1971 Feb 4-5
                                                                          1976 Mar 1-5
                                                                          1986 Dec 24-25
                                                                          1990 Feb 15-16
                                        2                                 1997 Mar 14
                                                     see separate graphic 1998 Jan 4-9


                                                                     12 hour storm motion
                                                                     Centre of the storm
                Ice Storm Conclusions….

  Southern Ontario has been on “snow end” of major North
American ice storms in PAST…

   Great Lakes likely moderate risks near shorelines

   Projected increases in freezing rain events with climate
change – especially eastern and northern Ontario

   Societal vulnerability ( ie. adaptation deficit) to ice storms
has already increased, and likely will continue to increase in
future
City of Ottawa By-Law … Winter Road and Sidewalk Maintenance
Ottawa Trends … Observations




            Snow decreasing




            Rain increasing
  Total Annual Freezing Rain Hours (Days) for
          Ontario Stations (1953-2001)
                      5 (2)                                8 (3)
6 (3)        MIN                                              12 (4)
                                                                            OTTAWA
                                                                              MAX
                       6 (2)                               24 (8) 22 (7)     37 (10)
                                                  10 (4)

                  Ottawa
100
                                                               14 (5)   22 (7)
                                  98
                                   95
 80      b=0.174 P=0.343     ZR hours
                                                                   17 (5)
 60

 40                                                           24 (7)
 20                                                  14 (5)
  0
  1950    1960    1970     1980     1990   2000
           Trends in Occurrence of Freezing Rain??
                                                14 Ontario stations, Montreal
                  Ottawa                                   (1953-2001)
100
                                98
                               95
                             ZR hours
                                                12 U.S. Great Lakes region sites
80       b=0.174 P=0.343

60
                                                           (1973-2000)
40
                                                  Risk same or slight decrease
20
                                                  in S Ont and Central Ont along
 0
  1950    1960    1970     1980   1990   2000
                                                  shorelines

                                                  Increasing trends in E Ont and
                                                N Ont

             Great Lakes influence on freezing rain occurrence?
           DECREASED frequency shores Lk Ontario, Lake Erie
            Power Line Climatological Design Criteria
  Design criteria of 25-30 mm for much of southern Ontario – less in
northern Ontario

   Study showed risk of major power outages increases when
Freezing rain amounts > ~30 mm

   Potential for long outages/”community disasters” and emergency
shelters when
Freezing rain amounts > ~40 mm

 Eastern Ontario most at risk for transmission line failures,
communication tower collapses




      CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor)
                                        Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms
                                               with Climate Change?
                                                Changes in Frequency of Freezing Rain
                                            Weather Patterns by 2050 for Toronto and Ottawa
                                40
                                     Based on: CGCM2 A2          T o r o n to   Toronto
                                35                                                         30%     30%
                                                                 O tta w a      Ottawa
                                            34%
                                30
% Change (1958-01 to 2041-60)




                                      Based on: CGCM2 A2
                                25
                                                  20%                   20%
                                20

                                15

                                10                                                 9%         9%
                                          7%                     7%

                                 5

                                 0

                                        >= 4 Hrs Frzg Rain                      >= 6 Hrs Frzg Rain
Observed Increases in Freeze-Thaw Cycles?
                           (preliminary)
Changes in Climate & Spring
Weight Restrictions (SWRs)
 (lower weight required in thaw periods)




                                 Earlier spring weight restrictions
            In Conclusion....

• Our climate is already changing – community specific

• Particularly vulnerable to Climate extremes and Creeping Ch

• CLIMATE CHANGE will have significant impacts on all aspec
  Greater expectations along with aging population and proper

• We will need to:

   ADAPT to reduce adaptation deficit, and strengthen human
   by improving our prediction, prevention, design and operati

   Reduce our GHG emissions to slow the rate of CC

								
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