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Climate Flexible Approaches for
Managing Water Resources
The Kathryn Fuller Science
for Nature Symposium
November 2009
Rafik Hirji, Ph.D., P.E.
The World Bank
Global Water Budget
Global Freshwater
Global Water 68.9% locked in glacier
97.5% Seawater 30.8% groundwater
2.5% Freshwater 0.3% lakes and rivers (0.004?%
of total)
Outline
Sustainable Water Development
Motivation
The Bank’s Approach includes:
1. Climate Change and Water Study, 2007-09
2. Lake Basin Management Initiative, 2003-05
3. Environment Flows study, 2006-09
4. SEA and IWRM study, 2007-09
5. Groundwater Governance (ongoing)
Sustainable Development
On the one hand,
infrastructure for:
Reliable, adequate, safe
water supply
Water for development –
energy, industry, agriculture,
mining, livestock, fisheries,
national parks…
Flood protection, navigation
But also protection of
environment
Provision of ecosystem
services
Motivation
Sufficient evidence that CC is real
Water sector is among most affected
Implications for Bank clients and
investments can be serious
A priority for the Bank and the sector
Guidance is needed for incorporating
impact of hydrologic variability and
climate change in investments, planning
and policy reforms
Climate change is more than
an unprecedented
environmental challenge.
It is a major development,
economic and social challenge.
Climate threats -
countries most at risk
Low Income Middle Income High Income
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agri.
All low-lying All low-lying
Malawi Bangladesh Philippines Sudan
Island States Island States
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Climate risks are higher
for poor countries
Source: World Bank staff.
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT
CHALLENGE IN AFRICA
Africa’s natural legacy: Climate
variability
Extreme climate variability & associated landscape
vulnerability mean very high costs to African
economies, without major investments in water
security, unaffordable to poor countries.
And rising toll of droughts and floods..
Zimbabwe: rainfall significantly
affects growth….
Economic impact of 1991/92
Zimbabwe drought
• 45% decline in agricultural
production
• 11% decline in GDP
• 62% decline in stock
market
• 9% decline in
manufacturing output
• 15% reduction in power
generation
• In Southern Africa: 20 m
affected; $ 2b relief
Ethiopia: GDP highly correlated to
rainfall
Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
80 25
20
60
15
40
percentage
10
20 5
0
0 1986 -5
1988
1989
1991
1992
1994
1995
1997
1983
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1998
2000
1982
1985
1999
-20 -10
-15
-40
rainfall variation around the mean -20
-60 GDP growth
-25
Ag GDP growth
-80 -30
year
World Bank
Impact of historical levels of variability on 2003-
2015 growth projections:
38% decline in avg. GDP growth
25% increase in poverty
Ethiopia’s Infrastructure Stock
100
90
80
70
60
% Developed
50
or Served
40
30
20
10
0
Hydro Irrigation Access to
Developed Developed Potable Water
Mozambique
2000 & 2001 winters
extreme flooding
Impact of Yr. 2000 floods on
Mozambique’s economy
-23%
+44%
Kenya: variability and growth
rainfall variability, Ag GDP and GDP
60 rainfall variability 10
GDP
40 8
Ag GDP
20
6
0
4
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
-20
2
-40
0
-60
-80 -2
-100 -4
Climate variability has a huge
impact on Kenya’s economy
Economic impact of 97/98 El Nino Floods:
11% GDP loss
damage to transport & water supply infrastructure,
agricultural loss, diseases.
Economic impact of:
99 drought - 16% of GDP loss
2000 drought - 16% of GDP loss
Decline in energy generation, manufacturing,
agriculture, livestock, and health sectors.
Many African economies are hostage to
hydrology….
Nations with inadequate capacities to buffer
against the impacts of either too much or
too little water are trapped in a low level
equilibrium…A poverty trap!
WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE
Managing water for rural people
Managing water for growing cities
Managing water for irrigation
Managing water
for energy
Managing water for livelihoods
Managing water
for navigation
Managing water for biodiversity
A new challenge: integrated
water resources management,
at the river basin level
The IWRM Principles/Goals
The “ecological” principle:
• holistic, comprehensive, inter-
sectoral...
n The “institutional” principle:
stakeholder participation
subsidiarity (federal, state,
municipality, users…)
greater role for private sector,
NGOs and women
n The “instrument” principle:
Greater attention to economic value of
alternative uses
Greater use of economic instruments
(water rights, user charges, …)
Dimensions of IWRM
Integrated Water Resources Management
Infrastructure for
management of floods and
droughts, conjunctive use
of surface and
groundwater, multipurpose
storage, water quality
management and source
protection
Policy/Institutional Water for Water for Other uses
framework for supply side Water for Water for
and demand management People Food Energy Environment
options
Management instruments
Political economy of water
management
Water by usage
Adapted from
GWP
Water Resources Decision
Framework
Policy
} SEA
Legislation
Legislation Strategy
} SEA
Plans
Programs
} SEA
Project } EIA
Integrated Water Resources Management
A systematic process for linking water and water-related
policy, objectives, and uses to improve decision making in:
• operation and management of natural resources and
environmental systems;
• design and implementation of programs and policies.
A coordinating framework for integrating sectoral needs,
water and water-related policy, resource allocation, and
management within the context of social, economic, and
environmental development objectives.
The emerging challenge calls for
coupling implications of Climate
Variability with Climate Change.
World Bank and Climate Change
Climate change must not come at the cost
of development
• need to find and support ways to reconcile the growth
needs of developing countries while addressing CC
Must do both: mitigation—to avoid the
unmanageable, adaptation—to manage the
unavoidable
Mobilize resources above and beyond the
current ODA levels for adequate financing
Strategic Framework for Climate
Change and Development
Make effective climate action (both adaptation and
mitigation) part of core development efforts
Address the financing gap through existing and new
innovative financing instruments
Facilitate development of innovative market
mechanisms
Enable the environment for private sector financing
Accelerate deployment of existing and development
of new climate-friendly technologies
Step-up policy research, knowledge management
and capacity building
On water and climate change
Accelerate and broaden current investments in water
resources management and development
Focus on adaptation, but also mitigation where
relevant
Develop an effective menu of adaptation options
Knowledge and capacity building
Technology
Infrastructure
Policies, Institutions
Mechanisms for risk-sharing
Mechanisms for financing
Enable better decision-making under uncertainty
Water services delivery and resource management
Assessing impacts and vulnerability
The Bank’s Approach
1. Climate Change and Water:
A two Year Study
Designed to support Bank operations and
client countries in making water
investment decisions that account for
climate variability and change.
Addresses the following key questions:
• What are the impacts of climate variability and
change on water systems – services and
resource management;
• What are adaptation strategies to reduce
vulnerability of water systems to these
impacts; and
• How can the Bank assist client countries in
making informed decisions regarding
adaptation options in their water investments?
Water & Climate Change:
Issues and Concepts
Synthesis of the Science
Indicators for Assessing
Vulnerability
Review of Investments and
Exposure
Adaptation Strategies for
Urban WSS Utilities
Water & Climate Change:
Risk-based decision framework
under increased uncertainty
Groundwater management as
adaptation option
Climate Adaptation Responses
for Freshwater Ecosystems
Risk-based design of multi-
purpose infrastructure
Transboundary agreements
and treaties
What we see so far
We know much less than we should, but must make
investment and financing decisions none-the-less.
Waiting until science advances far enough is not an
option.
Pushing models beyond their intended limits can lead
to actions that are ―precisely wrong‖.
Uncertainty is a given in the sector and we just have
to deal with it.
Bottom-up and Top-Down approaches are
complimentary.
• Top down approach (projections to vulnerability to adaptation) is not
in all cases useful for decision making.
• Bottom up approach (assessing key vulnerabilities of water systems
and then assessing the likelihood of failure) may be more useful in
some cases.
What we see so far
GCMs downscaling (dynamic and statistical) can
project general trends (T, P, extreme events) with
some degree of confidence.
But translating these trends into runoff is not a
straight-forward exercise, as many claim.
Downscaling at high enough resolution for use in
analysis and design cannot be done with a high
degree of confidence as yet.
Managing risk and uncertainty is not new in the water
sector. There is simply more now.
The decision process in dealing with risk and
uncertainty is essentially the same with and without
climate change.
The past record cannot be used for future design.
Indicators for assessing vulnerability:
top down approach
Global and regional patterns
• Hydroclimatic (Koppen, CMI, AI, PDSI)
• Flow (dryness ratio, runoff ratio, flow variation coefficient)
• Water use/demand (withdrawal, pop. exposed, stress index,
overdraft)
• Water storage and infrastructure (storage/c, storage/flow, net
inflow, basin yield)
• Ecosystem sustainability (environmental flows, water quality)
• Other (CVI)
Characteristics
• Relatively static
• Primarily applicable to geographic locations
• Useful in framing decision-making
• Omit design and operational considerations
Assessing vulnerability in water systems
investments – bottom up
Water system: a combination of institutional,
operational, and infrastructure elements that links
resource availability to use in a sustainable manner.
Water system performance (dynamic) indicators
• Exposure - degree to which a system can be impacted by
external factors
• Reliability – likelihood that services are delivered within a
given period
• Resiliency – Manner in which a system recovers from
failure
• Vulnerability – severity of the expected consequences of
failure
Basis for analysis of water investments
Focus on systems (natural and engineered)
and system performance
“No regrets”, “good practice”, “sustainable”,
etc. actions can be justified with or without
climate change.
• Demand management, efficiency, productivity, etc.
• Intelligent and flexible design and operation of water
infrastructure -- including ―on demand‖ intervention, and
infrastructure that ―scales to needs‖
“Climate justified” actions are different. They
require:
• More care in measuring impacts & ssessment of system
vulnerability
• A deliberate decision on the degree of risk to be taken
• Strong justification of usually high additional costs
Application ... work is starting
Review extent to which
Climate Change is seen as a
significant factor in the
assistance strategy and the
lending program
Monitor, Evaluate, Review
Discuss significance of
climate change and agree on
scope of incorporating it in the
project
World Bank
Project Cycle
Carry out necessary analysis
Implement to assess the impact and to
evaluate options
Appraise project with and
….. without Climate Change
factor
Adaptation options analysis
1. Share the loss
2. Bear the loss Structural or technological
3. Modify the events Legislative, regulatory, financial
4. Prevent the effects Institutional or administrative
Adaptation options
5. Change use Market-based
6. Change location On-site operations
7. Research
8. Education & behavioural change
2. Lake Basin
Management Initiative
―Managing Lakes and their
Basins for Sustainable Use: A
Report for Lake Basin Managers
and Stakeholders (2005).
Process – A 3 Year Interactive Process with a
Wide Range of Stakeholders (280 experts from
41 countries)
Outcome – A Global Common View of the
Issues, Trends and Opportunities in Lake Basin
Management
Guided by principles of the World Lake Vision
issued at 3rd World Water Forum – Kyoto 2003
Shifts from traditional focus on the
management of lakes to a more comprehensive
focus on management of lake basins
Recognizes the importance of lake basins for
sustainable management of water resources,
conservation of ecosystems and improvement
of livelihoods
The 28 Study Lakes
Asian Lake Basins
Bhoj Wetland Lake Xinghai/Khanka Lake Biwa
Chilika Lagoon
Lake Dianchi Lake Toba Tonle Sap Laguna de Bay
African Lake Basins
Lake Baringo Lake Victoria Lake Nakuru
Kariba Reservoir
Lake Malawi/Nyasa Lake Chad Lake Tanganyika Lake Naivasha
European/Eastern
European Lake Basins
Lake Baikal
Lake Constance
Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe Lake Ohrid
Lake Issyk-kul Lake Sevan Aral Sea
North/Central/South
American Lake Basins
Great Lakes (Laurentian)
Lake Titicaca
Lake Cocibolca
Tucurui Reservoir
Lake Champlain
Lake Basin Problems
Summary in Table In-lake
Most common:
• Excess sediment inputs Littoral
zone
• Basin stormwater discharge
Basin
• Shoreline effluent discharge
• Non-point source nutrients Regional/gl
• Unsustainable fishing obal
• Introduced fauna
• Over abstractions
About half problems arise in the basin
Most lakes face multiple problems
In general, lake basin problems not improving
Some successes on specific issues in both developed
and developing world
Lakes In-lake and basin-origin Problems
Emerging Problems
Globalization
• Increased demand for lake basin goods and
services
• Opportunity for transfer of technologies and
standards
Groundwater Flows
• Poorly recognized linkage between GW & lakes
Atmospheric Nutrient Delivery
• Major pathway for phosphorus at L. Victoria
Shrinking Size/Declining Lake Levels Lake Naivasha Flower
• Reduced inflows, Sediment infill, Excessive withdrawals Farms
Environmental Flows
• Upstream & downstream developments
• Examples: Lake Chilika & Tonle Sap
Climate Change
• Evidence is limited
• Various direct effects described
Lake Chad 1973 Lake Chad 1987
Special Characteristics of
Lakes
Lakes have some special characteristics
• Integrating nature – mixing means resources and
issues both spread throughout lake
• Long retention times – slow to react to pollution;
slow to respond to
management
• Complex response C
D
dynamics – do not always Plankton
Time
respond linearly to inputs, Concentration
takes time and is costly Time
to reverse conditions
B
A
Nutrient
Concentration
Fragility of Lakes
Vulnerable and fragile systems with
special management needs
Often closed or semi-closed systems
with longer retention periods for
pollutants
Pollutants in system over long periods
Process of mixing and breaking down
waste discharges is slow
Subject to dramatic system responses
Key Messages
Lake Basin Management is critical for
sustainable development and responsible
economic growth
Lakes and their basins are fragile and
complex ecosystems under serious stress
Successful management requires long-term
political and public commitment
Successful management requires sustained
financial commitment
Management approaches need to be
responsive to changes
3. Study into Environmental
Flows: Experience & Lessons
“Environmental Flows in
Water Resources Policies,
Plans and Projects” (2009)
E Flow Study Objective
Help advance the understanding and
integration in operational terms of
environmental water allocation into
integrated water resources
management (decision making at the
policy, plan and project levels)
Study Structure
History of Bank Inclusion of E-Flows
Assistance offered by the Bank
Analysis of 17 case studies
Lessons learned and Achievements
Framework for integrating e-flows
into IWRM
Entry Points for E-Flows
Water and environmental policy reform
Basin/catchment planning
New infrastructure
Rehabilitation and re-operation
Policy
Legislation
Strategy
Plans
Programs
Project
Geographic Diversity
Policy – Australia, EU, South Africa, Tanzania, Florida
Plans – Kruger, Mekong, Pangani, Pioneer
Projects – Aral Sea, Berg River, Bridge River, Chilika, Lesotho,
Kihansi, Senegal River, Tarim
The World Bank and E-Flows
Bank both informed by and contributes
to evolving e-flow knowledge and
practice
The Bank contribution mainly through:
1. Lesotho Highland Water Project,
2. Restoration of the Tarim River,
3. Restoration of the Northern Aral Sea
4. Infrastructure in Lower Kihansi River
5. Infrastructure in the Senegal River basin
6. Sector analysis
7. Technical documents
4. SEA and the Water
Sector study
“Strategic Environmental
Assessment: Improving Water
Resources Governance and
Decision Making (2009)”
Environment Strategy
Introduce SEAs
Move environmental considerations
up decision process
Policy
} SEA
Legislation
Legislation Strategy
} SEA
Plans
Programs
} SEA
Project } EIA
Possible SEA Entry Points in
Water Sector
Policy/legislative level (development of national or
sectoral water policy, enacting water legislation)
Basin level (drawing up river basin plans, establishing a
river basin institution)
Plan level (formulating and implementing a national water
supply, irrigation or energy master plan)
Project investment level (hydropower, urban water
supply or irrigation investment opportunity)
Transboundary water resource
management and development
)71
Sectoral strategies or programs
Some SEA Examples
India: SEA of Palar Basin
Indonesia: SEA of Water Resources
Tanzania: Rapid Water Resources Assessment
Colombia: Water and Sanitation Sector SEA
Lake Victoria: Transboundary Diagnostic
Analysis/Strategic Action Program
Nam Theun II/Laos and Nepal: Hydropower
Development
72
SEA and IWRM
Potentially SEA is a powerful tool to
integrate sustainability concepts in water
resources policy, planning & management
and hence support IWRM application
SEAs have had long-term influence in
supporting integrative approaches to
water sector management
SEA’s structured approach to stakeholder
participation has helped strengthen
participatory approaches and win
advocates
73
SEA and Climate Adaptation
Assessing CC adaptation capacity and
CC induced risks
Strengthening institutional CC capacity
to develop planning tools and better
manage climate variability and its
impacts
Assessing, applying and strengthening
participatory approaches to involve
climate-affected stakeholders
74
5. Groundwater Governance
Silent Revolution:
Rapid growth in groundwater exploitation
• Largely in arid/semi-arid regions
• Largely unplanned and uncontrolled
• Individual decisions rather than organizations
Reasons
• Groundwater does not require community
infrastructure
bypassing regulations and negotiations
relatively cheap
• Resilience of aquifers to dry periods
• Availability of subsidized pumping costs
• Technologies – submersible pumps
The Silent Revolution
Pros
• Allowed many irrigators to leave poverty
• Shift from subsistence to cash crops
• Help meet MDGs
Cons
• Unsustainable practices
• Increasing degradation, irreversible
trends
1. Watertable drawdown (may lead to
saltwater intrusion, land subsidence)
2. Rising pumping costs
3. Pollution
GROUNDWATER RESOURCES:
the political challenge
increased scientific understanding not yet made a
significant influence on resource policy making
groundwater has not featured prominently in
global or national water policy dialogues
focus is still too often on groundwater
development rather than groundwater
management
groundwater governance and practical
management are not well funded and in
consequence:
• opportunities for utilising groundwater resources
sustainably and conjunctively are being lost
• insufficient attention to the interrelationship between
groundwater and land-use planning
GROUNDWATER RESOURCE GOVERNANCE
& PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT
harmonising ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’
Strategic Planning Level
- national water use priorities
- food + energy policy
- legal framework
Economic
Demand/Supply
Instruments
Interventions
Local Institutional Level
- role of local government
- groundwater use rights
- stakeholder participation
Groundwater and climate change
Its unique characteristics – vast resource, wide
availability, long retention time and slow
aquifer response – mean that groundwater
systems are more naturally buffered against
seasonal and inter-annual variability in rainfall
and changes in surface temperatures. Also,
unlike surface water storages, aquifers lose
negligible water through evaporation and
transpiration and so provide a more secure
source of water for humans and ecosystems.
Deeper systems respond relatively slowly to
inter-annual variations and so provide a buffer
against the increased variability brought by
climate change.
In summary….
•Highlighted the huge development
challenge
•Summarized the Bank’s position on
Climate Change, and,
•Described the various studies and
initiatives the Bank has undertaken to
integrate CC in project planning and
decision making and to support
improved management of rivers, lakes
and aquifers.
Contact information
Rafik Hirji
Rhirji@worldbank.org
