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					Climate Flexible Approaches for
   Managing Water Resources


    The Kathryn Fuller Science
      for Nature Symposium
          November 2009

     Rafik Hirji, Ph.D., P.E.
         The World Bank
     Global Water Budget
                   Global Freshwater
Global Water       68.9% locked in glacier
97.5% Seawater     30.8% groundwater
 2.5% Freshwater   0.3% lakes and rivers (0.004?%
                   of total)
                      Outline

   Sustainable Water Development

   Motivation

   The Bank’s Approach includes:
    1.   Climate Change and Water Study, 2007-09
    2.   Lake Basin Management Initiative, 2003-05
    3.   Environment Flows study, 2006-09
    4.   SEA and IWRM study, 2007-09
    5.   Groundwater Governance (ongoing)
      Sustainable Development
On the one hand,
 infrastructure for:
   Reliable, adequate, safe
    water supply
   Water for development –
    energy, industry, agriculture,
    mining, livestock, fisheries,
    national parks…
   Flood protection, navigation
But also protection of
 environment
   Provision of ecosystem
    services
                Motivation

   Sufficient evidence that CC is real
   Water sector is among most affected
   Implications for Bank clients and
    investments can be serious
   A priority for the Bank and the sector
   Guidance is needed for incorporating
    impact of hydrologic variability and
    climate change in investments, planning
    and policy reforms
 Climate change is more than
      an unprecedented
   environmental challenge.

  It is a major development,
economic and social challenge.
                     Climate threats -
                   countries most at risk
                Low Income                 Middle Income              High Income

 Drought       Flood           Storm       Coastal 1m      Coastal 5m          Agri.

                                           All low-lying   All low-lying
  Malawi     Bangladesh      Philippines                                       Sudan
                                           Island States   Island States

 Ethiopia      China      Bangladesh         Vietnam       Netherlands        Senegal

Zimbabwe       India         Madagascar       Egypt           Japan          Zimbabwe

  India      Cambodia         Vietnam        Tunisia       Bangladesh           Mali

Mozambique   Mozambique       Moldova       Indonesia       Philippines       Zambia

  Niger        Laos          Mongolia       Mauritania        Egypt           Morocco
Mauritania    Pakistan          Haiti         China           Brazil           Niger
  Eritrea    Sri Lanka         Samoa          Mexico        Venezuela          India
  Sudan       Thailand         Tonga        Myanmar          Senegal          Malawi
  Chad        Vietnam          China       Bangladesh          Fiji           Algeria
  Kenya        Benin         Honduras        Senegal         Vietnam          Ethiopia
   Iran       Rwanda            Fiji          Libya          Denmark          Pakistan
                            Climate risks are higher
                               for poor countries




Source: World Bank staff.
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT
CHALLENGE IN AFRICA
    Africa’s natural legacy: Climate
                 variability

Extreme climate variability & associated landscape
vulnerability mean very high costs to African
economies, without major investments in water
security, unaffordable to poor countries.
And rising toll of droughts and floods..
Zimbabwe: rainfall significantly
affects growth….
        Economic impact of 1991/92
            Zimbabwe drought
• 45% decline in agricultural
  production
• 11% decline in GDP
• 62% decline in stock
  market
• 9% decline in
  manufacturing output
• 15% reduction in power
  generation
• In Southern Africa: 20 m
  affected; $ 2b relief
Ethiopia: GDP highly correlated to
                    rainfall
        Ethiopia: Rainfall, GDP and Agric. GDP
                  80                                                                                                                                          25
                                                                                                                                                              20
                  60
                                                                                                                                                              15
                  40
     percentage



                                                                                                                                                              10
                  20                                                                                                                                          5
                                                                                                                                                              0
                   0                                1986                                                                                                      -5

                                                                  1988
                                                                         1989


                                                                                        1991
                                                                                               1992


                                                                                                             1994
                                                                                                                    1995


                                                                                                                                  1997
                               1983
                                      1984



                                                           1987



                                                                                1990



                                                                                                      1993



                                                                                                                           1996


                                                                                                                                         1998


                                                                                                                                                       2000
                        1982



                                             1985




                                                                                                                                                1999
                  -20                                                                                                                                         -10
                                                                                                                                                              -15
                  -40
                                                                         rainfall variation around the mean                                                   -20
                  -60                                                    GDP growth
                                                                                                                                                              -25
                                                                         Ag GDP growth
                  -80                                                                                                                                         -30
                                                                                       year
              World Bank
                  Impact of historical levels of variability on 2003-
                  2015 growth projections:
                  38% decline in avg. GDP growth
                  25% increase in poverty
 Ethiopia’s Infrastructure Stock


            100
             90
             80
             70
             60
% Developed
             50
 or Served
             40
             30
             20
             10
              0
                    Hydro      Irrigation     Access to
                  Developed   Developed     Potable Water
Mozambique
2000 & 2001 winters
extreme flooding
Impact of Yr. 2000 floods on
  Mozambique’s economy


                               -23%
                               +44%
              Kenya: variability and growth
                      rainfall variability, Ag GDP and GDP

 60                                                      rainfall variability                    10
                                                         GDP
 40                                                                                              8
                                                         Ag GDP
 20
                                                                                                 6
  0
                                                                                                 4
       1978

               1980

                      1982

                             1984

                                    1986

                                           1988

                                                  1990

                                                            1992

                                                                    1994

                                                                            1996

                                                                                   1998

                                                                                          2000
 -20
                                                                                                 2
 -40
                                                                                                 0
 -60
 -80                                                                                             -2

-100                                                                                             -4
     Climate variability has a huge
     impact on Kenya’s economy

   Economic impact of 97/98 El Nino Floods:
     11% GDP loss
     damage to transport & water supply infrastructure,
      agricultural loss, diseases.
   Economic impact of:
     99 drought - 16% of GDP loss
     2000 drought - 16% of GDP loss
     Decline in energy generation, manufacturing,
      agriculture, livestock, and health sectors.
  Many African economies are hostage to
               hydrology….

Nations with inadequate capacities to buffer
  against the impacts of either too much or
   too little water are trapped in a low level
          equilibrium…A poverty trap!
  WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE
Managing water for rural people
Managing water for growing cities


Managing water for irrigation

Managing water
for energy
Managing water for livelihoods
Managing water
for navigation
Managing water for biodiversity
 A new challenge: integrated
water resources management,
    at the river basin level
          The IWRM Principles/Goals
   The “ecological” principle:
    • holistic, comprehensive, inter-
      sectoral...


n   The “institutional” principle:
       stakeholder participation
       subsidiarity (federal, state,
        municipality, users…)
       greater role for private sector,
        NGOs and women
n   The “instrument” principle:
       Greater attention to economic value of
        alternative uses
       Greater use of economic instruments
        (water rights, user charges, …)
                        Dimensions of IWRM

                              Integrated Water Resources Management
     Infrastructure for
management of floods and
droughts, conjunctive use
       of surface and
groundwater, multipurpose
   storage, water quality
 management and source
         protection

    Policy/Institutional                  Water for                Water for    Other uses
framework for supply side    Water for                Water for
and demand management         People       Food        Energy     Environment
         options

Management instruments


Political economy of water
       management


                                         Water by usage
Adapted from
GWP
Water Resources Decision
      Framework


                 Policy
                                          }   SEA

   Legislation
  Legislation             Strategy
                                          }   SEA

                                Plans


                               Programs
                                          }   SEA


                                Project   }   EIA
  Integrated Water Resources Management

A systematic process for linking water and water-related
policy, objectives, and uses to improve decision making in:
   • operation and management of natural resources and
     environmental systems;
   • design and implementation of programs and policies.


A coordinating framework for integrating sectoral needs,
water and water-related policy, resource allocation, and
management within the context of social, economic, and
environmental development objectives.
The emerging challenge calls for
coupling implications of Climate
Variability with Climate Change.
World Bank and Climate Change

   Climate change must not come at the cost
    of development
    • need to find and support ways to reconcile the growth
      needs of developing countries while addressing CC


   Must do both: mitigation—to avoid the
    unmanageable, adaptation—to manage the
    unavoidable

   Mobilize resources above and beyond the
    current ODA levels for adequate financing
    Strategic Framework for Climate
       Change and Development
 Make effective climate action (both adaptation and
  mitigation) part of core development efforts

 Address the financing gap through existing and new
  innovative financing instruments

 Facilitate development of innovative market
  mechanisms

 Enable the environment for private sector financing

 Accelerate deployment of existing and development
  of new climate-friendly technologies

 Step-up policy research, knowledge management
  and capacity building
       On water and climate change
   Accelerate and broaden current investments in water
    resources management and development

   Focus on adaptation, but also mitigation where
    relevant

   Develop an effective menu of adaptation options
          Knowledge and capacity building
          Technology
          Infrastructure
          Policies, Institutions
          Mechanisms for risk-sharing
          Mechanisms for financing

   Enable better decision-making under uncertainty
          Water services delivery and resource management
          Assessing impacts and vulnerability
The Bank’s Approach
    1. Climate Change and Water:
           A two Year Study
   Designed to support Bank operations and
    client countries in making water
    investment decisions that account for
    climate variability and change.
   Addresses the following key questions:
    • What are the impacts of climate variability and
      change on water systems – services and
      resource management;
    • What are adaptation strategies to reduce
      vulnerability of water systems to these
      impacts; and
    • How can the Bank assist client countries in
      making informed decisions regarding
      adaptation options in their water investments?
Water & Climate Change:
   Issues and Concepts
   Synthesis of the Science
   Indicators for Assessing
    Vulnerability
   Review of Investments and
    Exposure
   Adaptation Strategies for
    Urban WSS Utilities
Water & Climate Change:
   Risk-based decision framework
    under increased uncertainty
   Groundwater management as
    adaptation option
   Climate Adaptation Responses
    for Freshwater Ecosystems
   Risk-based design of multi-
    purpose infrastructure
   Transboundary agreements
    and treaties
                 What we see so far
   We know much less than we should, but must make
    investment and financing decisions none-the-less.
   Waiting until science advances far enough is not an
    option.
   Pushing models beyond their intended limits can lead
    to actions that are ―precisely wrong‖.
   Uncertainty is a given in the sector and we just have
    to deal with it.
   Bottom-up and Top-Down approaches are
    complimentary.
    • Top down approach (projections to vulnerability to adaptation) is not
      in all cases useful for decision making.
    • Bottom up approach (assessing key vulnerabilities of water systems
      and then assessing the likelihood of failure) may be more useful in
      some cases.
               What we see so far
   GCMs downscaling (dynamic and statistical) can
    project general trends (T, P, extreme events) with
    some degree of confidence.
   But translating these trends into runoff is not a
    straight-forward exercise, as many claim.
   Downscaling at high enough resolution for use in
    analysis and design cannot be done with a high
    degree of confidence as yet.
   Managing risk and uncertainty is not new in the water
    sector. There is simply more now.
   The decision process in dealing with risk and
    uncertainty is essentially the same with and without
    climate change.
   The past record cannot be used for future design.
    Indicators for assessing vulnerability:
             top down approach
   Global and regional patterns
     • Hydroclimatic (Koppen, CMI, AI, PDSI)
     • Flow (dryness ratio, runoff ratio, flow variation coefficient)
     • Water use/demand (withdrawal, pop. exposed, stress index,
       overdraft)
     • Water storage and infrastructure (storage/c, storage/flow, net
       inflow, basin yield)
     • Ecosystem sustainability (environmental flows, water quality)
     • Other (CVI)
   Characteristics
     • Relatively static
     • Primarily applicable to geographic locations
     • Useful in framing decision-making
     • Omit design and operational considerations
Assessing vulnerability in water systems
       investments – bottom up

    Water system: a combination of institutional,
    operational, and infrastructure elements that links
    resource availability to use in a sustainable manner.


   Water system performance (dynamic) indicators
    • Exposure - degree to which a system can be impacted by
      external factors
    • Reliability – likelihood that services are delivered within a
      given period
    • Resiliency – Manner in which a system recovers from
      failure
    • Vulnerability – severity of the expected consequences of
      failure
Basis for analysis of water investments
   Focus on systems (natural and engineered)
    and system performance
   “No regrets”, “good practice”, “sustainable”,
    etc. actions can be justified with or without
    climate change.
    • Demand management, efficiency, productivity, etc.
    • Intelligent and flexible design and operation of water
      infrastructure -- including ―on demand‖ intervention, and
      infrastructure that ―scales to needs‖

    “Climate justified” actions are different. They
    require:
    • More care in measuring impacts & ssessment of system
      vulnerability
    • A deliberate decision on the degree of risk to be taken
    • Strong justification of usually high additional costs
     Application ... work is starting
                                            Review extent to which
                                            Climate Change is seen as a
                                            significant factor in the
                                            assistance strategy and the
                                            lending program
Monitor, Evaluate, Review




                                            Discuss significance of
                                            climate change and agree on
                                            scope of incorporating it in the
                                            project
                             World Bank
                            Project Cycle
                                            Carry out necessary analysis
Implement                                   to assess the impact and to
                                            evaluate options




                                            Appraise project with and
               …..                          without Climate Change
                                            factor
        Adaptation options analysis
                     1. Share the loss

                     2. Bear the loss                      Structural or technological

                     3. Modify the events                Legislative, regulatory, financial

                     4. Prevent the effects               Institutional or administrative
Adaptation options
                     5. Change use                                Market-based

                     6. Change location                         On-site operations

                     7. Research

                     8. Education & behavioural change
    2. Lake Basin
 Management Initiative
  ―Managing  Lakes and their
 Basins for Sustainable Use: A
Report for Lake Basin Managers
  and Stakeholders (2005).
   Process – A 3 Year Interactive Process with a
    Wide Range of Stakeholders (280 experts from
    41 countries)
   Outcome – A Global Common View of the
    Issues, Trends and Opportunities in Lake Basin
    Management
   Guided by principles of the World Lake Vision
    issued at 3rd World Water Forum – Kyoto 2003
   Shifts from traditional focus on the
    management of lakes to a more comprehensive
    focus on management of lake basins
   Recognizes the importance of lake basins for
    sustainable management of water resources,
    conservation of ecosystems and improvement
    of livelihoods
The 28 Study Lakes
                     Asian Lake Basins




      Bhoj Wetland                                Lake Xinghai/Khanka     Lake Biwa
                                 Chilika Lagoon




Lake Dianchi         Lake Toba                     Tonle Sap            Laguna de Bay
                    African Lake Basins




   Lake Baringo        Lake Victoria                      Lake Nakuru
                                       Kariba Reservoir




Lake Malawi/Nyasa        Lake Chad     Lake Tanganyika    Lake Naivasha
              European/Eastern
             European Lake Basins




                                            Lake Baikal
                                                          Lake Constance
Lake Peipsi/Chudskoe          Lake Ohrid




             Lake Issyk-kul                Lake Sevan       Aral Sea
            North/Central/South
            American Lake Basins



Great Lakes (Laurentian)
                                                                      Lake Titicaca



                                          Lake Cocibolca




                      Tucurui Reservoir

                                                     Lake Champlain
             Lake Basin Problems
   Summary in Table                                      In-lake
   Most common:
    •   Excess sediment inputs                            Littoral
                                                          zone
    •   Basin stormwater discharge
                                                          Basin
    •   Shoreline effluent discharge
    •   Non-point source nutrients                        Regional/gl
    •   Unsustainable fishing                             obal
    •   Introduced fauna
    •   Over abstractions
   About half problems arise in the basin
   Most lakes face multiple problems
   In general, lake basin problems not improving
   Some successes on specific issues in both developed
    and developing world
Lakes   In-lake and basin-origin Problems
                      Emerging Problems

   Globalization
    • Increased demand for lake basin goods and
    services
    • Opportunity for transfer of technologies and
    standards
   Groundwater Flows
    •   Poorly recognized linkage between GW & lakes
   Atmospheric Nutrient Delivery
    •   Major pathway for phosphorus at L. Victoria
   Shrinking Size/Declining Lake Levels                                    Lake Naivasha Flower
    •   Reduced inflows, Sediment infill, Excessive withdrawals             Farms
   Environmental Flows
    •   Upstream & downstream developments
    •   Examples: Lake Chilika & Tonle Sap
   Climate Change
    •   Evidence is limited
    •   Various direct effects described




                                                           Lake Chad 1973             Lake Chad 1987
       Special Characteristics of
                 Lakes
   Lakes have some special characteristics
     • Integrating nature – mixing means resources and
       issues both spread throughout lake
     • Long retention times – slow to react to pollution;
       slow to respond to
       management
     • Complex response                                                 C
                                                    D

      dynamics – do not always       Plankton
                                                     Time
       respond linearly to inputs,   Concentration


       takes time and is costly                        Time

       to reverse conditions
                                                                B
                                                A




                                                        Nutrient
                                                        Concentration
           Fragility of Lakes
   Vulnerable and fragile systems with
    special management needs
   Often closed or semi-closed systems
    with longer retention periods for
    pollutants
   Pollutants in system over long periods
   Process of mixing and breaking down
    waste discharges is slow
   Subject to dramatic system responses
             Key Messages
   Lake Basin Management is critical for
    sustainable development and responsible
    economic growth
   Lakes and their basins are fragile and
    complex ecosystems under serious stress
   Successful management requires long-term
    political and public commitment
   Successful management requires sustained
    financial commitment
   Management approaches need to be
    responsive to changes
3. Study into Environmental
Flows: Experience & Lessons
     “Environmental Flows in
     Water Resources Policies,
    Plans and Projects” (2009)
    E Flow Study Objective


Help advance the understanding and
 integration in operational terms of
 environmental water allocation into
      integrated water resources
management (decision making at the
    policy, plan and project levels)
            Study Structure

   History of Bank Inclusion of E-Flows
   Assistance offered by the Bank
   Analysis of 17 case studies
   Lessons learned and Achievements
   Framework for integrating e-flows
    into IWRM
       Entry Points for E-Flows

   Water and environmental policy reform
   Basin/catchment planning
   New infrastructure
   Rehabilitation and re-operation

                            Policy


              Legislation
                                     Strategy

                                          Plans
                                        Programs
                                         Project
      Geographic Diversity



                                        
                                    
                                           
                         
                               
                                                    
                              
                              



    Policy – Australia, EU, South Africa, Tanzania, Florida
 Plans – Kruger, Mekong, Pangani, Pioneer

   Projects – Aral Sea, Berg River, Bridge River, Chilika, Lesotho,
    Kihansi, Senegal River, Tarim
    The World Bank and E-Flows

   Bank both informed by and contributes
    to evolving e-flow knowledge and
    practice
   The Bank contribution mainly through:
    1.   Lesotho Highland Water Project,
    2.   Restoration of the Tarim River,
    3.   Restoration of the Northern Aral Sea
    4.   Infrastructure in Lower Kihansi River
    5.   Infrastructure in the Senegal River basin
    6.   Sector analysis
    7.   Technical documents
4. SEA and the Water
     Sector study

  “Strategic Environmental
Assessment: Improving Water
 Resources Governance and
  Decision Making (2009)”
      Environment Strategy
   Introduce SEAs
   Move environmental considerations
    up decision process
                      Policy
                                               }   SEA

        Legislation
       Legislation             Strategy
                                               }   SEA

                                     Plans


                                    Programs
                                               }   SEA


                                     Project   }   EIA
       Possible SEA Entry Points in
              Water Sector

   Policy/legislative level          (development of national or
    sectoral water policy, enacting water legislation)

   Basin level        (drawing up river basin plans, establishing a
    river basin institution)

   Plan level       (formulating and implementing a national water
    supply, irrigation or energy master plan)

   Project investment level             (hydropower, urban water
    supply or irrigation investment opportunity)

   Transboundary water resource
    management and development
                                                                 )71

   Sectoral strategies or programs
           Some SEA Examples
   India: SEA of Palar Basin
   Indonesia: SEA of Water Resources
   Tanzania: Rapid Water Resources Assessment
   Colombia: Water and Sanitation Sector SEA
   Lake Victoria: Transboundary Diagnostic
    Analysis/Strategic Action Program
   Nam Theun II/Laos and Nepal: Hydropower
    Development


                                            72
             SEA and IWRM

   Potentially SEA is a powerful tool to
    integrate sustainability concepts in water
    resources policy, planning & management
    and hence support IWRM application
   SEAs have had long-term influence in
    supporting integrative approaches to
    water sector management
   SEA’s structured approach to stakeholder
    participation has helped strengthen
    participatory approaches and win
    advocates
                                                 73
    SEA and Climate Adaptation

   Assessing CC adaptation capacity and
    CC induced risks
   Strengthening institutional CC capacity
    to develop planning tools and better
    manage climate variability and its
    impacts
   Assessing, applying and strengthening
    participatory approaches to involve
    climate-affected stakeholders

                                              74
5. Groundwater Governance
Silent Revolution:
   Rapid growth in groundwater exploitation
  • Largely in arid/semi-arid regions
  • Largely unplanned and uncontrolled
  • Individual decisions rather than organizations

Reasons
  • Groundwater does not require community
    infrastructure
      bypassing regulations and negotiations

      relatively cheap
  • Resilience of aquifers to dry periods
  • Availability of subsidized pumping costs
  • Technologies – submersible pumps
The Silent Revolution

   Pros
    • Allowed many irrigators to leave poverty
    • Shift from subsistence to cash crops
    • Help meet MDGs
   Cons
    • Unsustainable practices
    • Increasing degradation, irreversible
      trends
       1. Watertable drawdown (may lead to
          saltwater intrusion, land subsidence)
       2. Rising pumping costs
       3. Pollution
GROUNDWATER RESOURCES:
the political challenge

     increased scientific understanding not yet made a
      significant influence on resource policy making
     groundwater has not featured prominently in
      global or national water policy dialogues
     focus is still too often on groundwater
      development rather than groundwater
      management
     groundwater governance and practical
      management are not well funded and in
      consequence:
      • opportunities for utilising groundwater resources
        sustainably and conjunctively are being lost
      • insufficient attention to the interrelationship between
        groundwater and land-use planning
GROUNDWATER RESOURCE GOVERNANCE
& PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT
harmonising ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’
                 Strategic Planning Level

                 - national water use priorities
                 - food + energy policy
                 - legal framework


                                                   Economic
 Demand/Supply
                                                     Instruments
 Interventions

                 Local Institutional Level
                  - role of local government
                  - groundwater use rights
                  - stakeholder participation
Groundwater and climate change
Its unique characteristics – vast resource, wide
   availability, long retention time and slow
   aquifer response – mean that groundwater
   systems are more naturally buffered against
   seasonal and inter-annual variability in rainfall
   and changes in surface temperatures. Also,
   unlike surface water storages, aquifers lose
   negligible water through evaporation and
   transpiration and so provide a more secure
   source of water for humans and ecosystems.
   Deeper systems respond relatively slowly to
   inter-annual variations and so provide a buffer
   against the increased variability brought by
   climate change.
       In summary….
•Highlighted the huge development
challenge
•Summarized the Bank’s position on
Climate Change, and,
•Described the various studies and
initiatives the Bank has undertaken to
integrate CC in project planning and
decision making and to support
improved management of rivers, lakes
and aquifers.
Contact information



Rafik Hirji

Rhirji@worldbank.org