Dominion Resources by lqh68203

VIEWS: 21 PAGES: 4

									    Dominion Resources
    (D – NYSE)

    February 11, 2008
    Rating: NEUTRALRFO

                                             “Operating Model Shifts in ‘08”

                                     Price and Trading Data                          EPS estimates - GAAP
D
                    Current Price                                    $42.11           Dec 07A      Dec 08E
                    S&P 500                                        1331.29      1Q     $0.75        $0.91
                    52-Week Price Range                     $49.38 - $40.03     2Q     $0.45        $0.72
                    Shares Outstanding (mil.-diluted)                 578.1     3Q     $0.86        $0.92
                    Market Cap (bil.-diluted)                          24.6     4Q     $0.52        $0.55
                    Avg. Daily Trading Volume (mil)                    3.02            $2.58        $3.10
                    12-month Target Price                               NA

                              3Q08 Valuation Data
                    Debt to Total Capital                                 27%
                    Book Value/Share                                   $33.61
                    Price/Book                                            1.5
                    Dividend                                            $1.80
                    Current Yield                                        3.4%


       Highlights

           •     E & P sale produces change in business model
           •     Seeking to increase generating capacity
           •     Earnings guidance of $3.05-$3.10/share in 2008 and $3.25-$3.40/share in 2009
           •     Improved cash flow offers potential of dividend increases

       Company Summary

       Dominion Resources Inc., headquartered in Richmond VA, is a holding company for Virginia Power,
       Consolidated Natural Gas Company, Dominion Energy Inc., and has 26,500 megawatt generation capacity.
       The company provides electricity to 2.1 million electric customers in Virginia and northeastern North Carolina.
       D’s revenues can be categorized as residential (47%), commercial (32%), public authority (11%), industrial (9%),
       and others (1%).     Electrical assets include 6,000 miles of transmission lines in Virginia, West Virginia, and
       North Carolina and generation plants in 11 states. 2006's electrical generation by fuel type was 46% coal, 43%
       nuclear, 7% natural gas, 3% hydro-electric, and 1% oil. Natural gas is provided to 1.7 million customers in Ohio,



               For Important Disclosure information regarding the Firm’s rating system, valuation
                 methods and potential conflicts of interest, please refer to page 10 of this report.




                                                                   1
Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Gas customers consist of residential (73%), commercial (22%),
industrial (4%), and others (1%). D's natural gas assets include 7,800 miles of pipelines and 970 billion
cubic feet of gas storage. During 4Q07, D reported earnings of $0.52/share versus $0.04/share during
4Q06. D had full year 2007 operating GAAP earnings of $2.56/share versus $2.53/share for 4Q06. The
company's annual dividend was recently increased to $1.58/share from $1.42/share.

Business/Recent Developments

D altered its business structure with the sale of the Exploration & Production unit. The E&P unit
operated 7 major production basins in the US and Canada with 6.5 trillion cubic feet of natural gas/oil
reserves and this business was sold to multiple buyers for a total of approximately $14 billion. Proceeds
from these sales will be used by D to repurchase shares, lower debt and for potential future dividend
increases. D's remaining units are in two primary areas; 1) the electric distribution, generation, and
transmission businesses and 2) natural gas distribution and transmission business. D maintained
some natural gas storage and its 7,800 miles of transmission pipelines. Additionally, the company will
keep approximately 1 Bcf of natural gas production area in Appalachia. Because of these sales,
management realigned its business structure into Dominion Virginia Power, Dominion Generation,
Dominion Energy, and Dominion Resource Services. The Board of Directors raised the quarterly
dividend 11% and declared a 2-for-1 stock split this past November. D recently proposed a conversion of
the Bremo Power Station to natural gas fuel as part of a plan to build the Virginia City Hybrid Energy
Center in Wise VA. The company purchased a 50% interest in the Fowler Ridge Wind Farm, located
near Indianapolis IN, from BP Alternative Energy, adding to D's renewable energy portfolio generating
approximately 413 megawatts of power. In another purchase, D agreed to buy power station development
project located in Buckingham County VA from Tenaska, an independent power producer. A sale of D's
Dominion Peoples and Dominion Hope natural gas distribution companies was terminated due to a delay
in gaining regulatory approvals. Federal Regulators approved plans to increase production levels at D's
Unit #3 of the Millstone nuclear power plant, potentially raising output to 2,120 megawatts.

Recent Earnings

Dominion Resources reported 4Q07 earnings from continuing operations of $0.52/share vs. $0.04/share
during 4Q06. Results for 4Q06 include $0.34/share in charges due mainly from losses involving
discontinued operations. The higher earnings results came from improved contributions from the
merchant generation business, lower unrecovered Virginia fuel expenses, increased regulated electric
sales, declines in interest expense, and accretion due to D's share repurchase program. These
were partially offset by higher salaries/wages/benefits expenses, increased outage costs at D's generating
units, and lower earnings resulting from the sale of the non-Appalachian exploration & production units.
On a quarter-to-quarter basis, GAAP based operating revenues declined to $3.7 billion from $3.9
billion. The Dominion Virginia Power unit's profits declined to $82 million from $105
million due higher wages/salaries/benefits expenses, increased outside service/reliability and Dominion
retail expenses. Dominion Energy's grew to $113 million from $91 million benefiting from an increase
in regulated gas sales (weather related), improvements in gas transmission operations and
production services, and higher gas/oil production and prices. Dominion Generation rose to $133 million
from $81 million. This unit's results were driven by higher electric sales from weather/customer
growth, increased merchant generation margins, sales of emission allowances, ancillary service revenues,
lower interest and unrecovered fuel expenses. Overall earnings were helped by D's share repurchase
program by lowering the amount of outstanding shares and accounting for $0.11/share in profits.

Our Thoughts

D's earnings came in pretty much in line with expectations showing quarter over quarter improvement.
For the full year 2007 D operating earnings produced profits of $2.56/share vs $2.53/share. 2007 was a
transition for D sold the majority of its oil & gas businesses and used the proceeds to reduce debt,
buyback shares, and increase its common stock dividend. Given the company's new business
structure/focus on segment profitability, good local regulatory environment, and lack of charges from
discontinued operations incurred during 2007, there is the potential for earnings growth in 2008/2009.
 Going forward, management gave 1Q08 earnings guidance of $0.89-$0.94/share, $3.05-$3.15/share in
2008, and $3.25-$3.40/share in 2009. These guidance numbers appear achievable given potential cash
flow growth driven by D's business mix and operating model. Cash flow growth could allow the
company to increase its dividend annually during the next 3 years. Trading at 14x our projected 2008
earnings estimate of $3.10/shares, and paying a 3.7% dividend yield, D seems fairly valued. We rate D
NEUTRAL.

Risks

There are no guarantees D will be able to achieve annual earnings growth in the future. Fluctuating
commodity prices paid for fueling generating plants, future air emission regulation compliance costs,
and/or changing utility regulations could negatively affect earnings. Profits could be adversely impacted
by a rising interest rate environment, future plant decommissioning costs, and rising operational
expenses. D's stock could be adversely impacted by negative equity markets, failure to comply with
Sarbanes Oxley guidelines, or terrorist attacks.

Steven F. Marascia
Research Analyst
804-344-3806
smarascia@andersonstrudwick.com
Important Disclosures


                                                              Dominion Resources Price Chart
                     60.00

                     50.00

                     40.00

                     30.00

                     20.00

                     10.00

                        0.00
                                   2/4/05
                                            4/4/05
                                                     6/4/05
                                                              8/4/05




                                                                                           2/4/06
                                                                                                    4/4/06
                                                                                                             6/4/06
                                                                                                                      8/4/06




                                                                                                                                                   2/4/07
                                                                                                                                                            4/4/07
                                                                                                                                                                     6/4/07
                                                                                                                                                                              8/4/07




                                                                                                                                                                                                           2/4/08
                                                                       10/4/05
                                                                                 12/4/05




                                                                                                                               10/4/06
                                                                                                                                         12/4/06




                                                                                                                                                                                       10/4/07
                                                                                                                                                                                                 12/4/07
                                    11/3/04 $58.16 Initiate NEUTRAL


Steven Marascia certifies, with respect to the companies or securities that he analyzes, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his personal views about all of the subject
companies and securities and (2) no part of his compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Steven Marascia owns shares of Dominion Resources.

Anderson & Strudwick and employees of Anderson & Strudwick may own shares of Dominion Resources

Stock ratings used in this report are defined as follows:

           (1)      Outperform – The stock’s total return including dividends is expected to exceed the industry or market average by at least 10% over the next twelve months.
           (2)      Neutral – The stock’s total return including dividends is expected to be in line with the industry or market average of +/- 10% over the next twelve months.
           (3)      Underperform – The Stock’s total return including dividends is expected to be below the industry or market average by 10% or more over the next twelve months.

The distribution of investment ratings for all companies in our coverage universe are as follows: (1) 45%, (2) 54%, (3) 1%

The distribution of investment ratings used for companies whom we have performed banking services in the last 12 months are: (1) 60%, (2) 40%, (3) 0%

For regulatory purposes, our ratings of Outperform, Neutral and Underperform most closely correspond to Buy, Hold and Sell, respectively.

Other Disclosures
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Anderson & Strudwick or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.

The information presented in this report is provided to you for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities
or other financial instruments. Anderson & Strudwick may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor. Anderson & Strudwick will
not treat recipients of this report as its customers by virtue of their receiving this report. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is
recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax
advice, or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances, or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you. Anderson & Strudwick
does not advise on the tax consequences of investments and you are advised to contact an independent tax advisor. Information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from
sources believed by Anderson & Strudwick to be reliable, but Anderson & Strudwick makes no representation as to their accuracy or completeness. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the
exercise of independent judgment. Anderson & Strudwick may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information
presented in this report. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future
performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by Anderson & Strudwick and are subject to change without notice. The price,
value of and income from any of the securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise.


For more information on this report, please contact us at 800-767-2424 or write to Anderson & Strudwick 707 E. Main
Street 20th Floor, Richmond, VA 23219.

								
To top