THE ZIMBABWE ECONOMY

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					   THE
ZIMBABWE
ECONOMY

October 2009
                          CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
                                     Re-based: December 2008 = 100
                         115
                               US DOLLAR PRICES
                         110                                                                HOUSING
   INDEX: Dec 2008=100




                                                                                            TRANSPORT
                         105                                                                EDUCATION

                         100
                         95                                                                 HEALTH
                                                                                            RESTAURANTS
                         90                                                                 ALL ITEMS

                         85                                                                 FOOD

                         80                                                                 CLOTHING
                                                              May
                                            Feb




                                                                                      Sep
                                                        Apr
                                                  Mar
                               Dec




                                                                                Aug
                                      Jan




                                                                          Jul
                                                                    Jun




Robertson Economic Information Services
                          CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
       Revised & Re-based: December 2008 = 100
                                                                   106,4% Dec
                         105
   INDEX: Dec 2008=100



                               US DOLLAR PRICES
                         100
                                                                 Ministry of
                         95                                      Finance
                                                                 Forecast
                         90

                         85    ALL ITEMS INDEX
                         80
                           Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                                 2009
                          CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
       Revised & Re-based: December 2008 = 100
                         105
   INDEX: Dec 2008=100



                               US DOLLAR PRICES
                         100

                         95

                         90
                                                                 Independent
                                                                 FORECAST
                         85    ALL ITEMS INDEX
                         80
                           Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                                 2009
                          CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
                                 Re-based: December 2008 = 100
                         105
                               US DOLLAR PRICES
   INDEX: Dec 2008=100




                         100

                         95
                                                         ALL ITEMS INDEX

                         90

                         85      CLOTHING &
                                 FOOTWEAR                         FOOD INDEX
                         80
                           Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                                    RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR




                                                7
                                                      7,5
                                                            8
                                                                 8,5
                                                                       9
                                                                           9,5
                                          Apr-01
                                          Apr-09
                                          Apr-17
                                          Apr-27
                                          May 05,
                                          May 13,
                                          May 21,




Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          May 29,
                                          Jun-08
                                          Jun-16
                                          Jun-24
                                           Jul-02
                                           Jul-10
                                           Jul-20
                                           Jul-28
                                          Aug-05
                                          Aug-14
                                          Aug-21
                                          Aug-31
                                          Sep-08
                                                                             April 1 to October 16 2009




                                          Sep-16
                                          Sep-24
                                                                                                          RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR




                                          Oct-02
                                          Oct-12
                                                    RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR




                                                 0
                                                 1
                                                 2
                                                 3
                                                 4
                                                 5
                                                 6
                                                 7
                                                 8
                                                 9
                                                10
                                          Apr-01
                                          Apr-09
                                          Apr-17
                                          Apr-27
                                          May 05,
                                          May 13,
                                          May 21,




Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          May 29,
                                          Jun-08
                                          Jun-16
                                          Jun-24
                                           Jul-02
                                           Jul-10
                                           Jul-20
                                           Jul-28
                                          Aug-05
                                          Aug-14
                                          Aug-21
                                          Aug-31
                                          Sep-08
                                                                           April 1 to October 16 2009




                                          Sep-16
                                          Sep-24
                                                                                                        RAND PER U.S. DOLLAR




                                          Oct-02
                                          Oct-12
                             EXCHANGE RATE INDEX
                                                 C
                 Base: Apr 1 2009=100: Y, R, £ & = per US$
                                       =
                           105
 INDEX: April 1 2009=100




                           100                                                                                                                           U S DOLLAR


                           95
                                                                                                                                                                                                     YEN

                           90                                                                                                                                 EURO


                           85                                                                                                                                                        POUND
                                                       Japanese Yen
                                                       U.S. Dollar
                           80                          South African Rand                                                                                                                                              RAND
                                                       Euro inverted
                                                       Pound inverted
                           75




                                                                                                                                                                                                           Oct-06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oct-15
                                 Apr 01




                                                                     May 11
                                                                              May 20
                                                                                       May 29




                                                                                                                          Jul 08
                                                                                                                                   Jul 17
                                                                                                                                            Jul-28
                                                                                                                                                     Aug-06
                                                                                                                                                              Aug-18
                                                                                                                                                                       Aug-27
                                                                                                                                                                                Sep-07
                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-16
                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-25
                                                                                                Jun 9
                                                                                                        Jun 18
                                                                                                                 Jun 29
                                          Apr 10
                                                   Apr 21
                                                            Apr 30




Robertson Economic Information Services
 HOURLY WAGE COMPARISONS
 ZIMBABWE                  @ US$150 a month

    BRAZIL

 MALAYSIA

 THAILAND

PHILIPPINES

     CHINA

      INDIA

          0,00 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 0,50 0,60 0,70 0,80 0,90 1,00
                          US Dollars an hour
BASIS OF CALCULATION OF
ZIMBABWEAN HOURLY RATE

     365   days a year, less
     116   weekends and holidays =
     249   working days per year, @
       8   hours a day =
   1 992   hours a year
US$1 800   = Annual income @ $150 a month
 US$0,90   = hourly earnings
      SUPERMARKET PRICE TRENDS
                CURRENCY: USD         JUN      JUL      AUG      SEP
       ITEM                QUANTITY 30.06.09 31.07.09 31.08.09 30.09.09
       Margarine 500g         4       4,00     4,00     4,00     5,72
       Roller Meal 20kg       2      17,60    16,72    17,60    18,00
       White Sugar 2kg        3       5,16     5,16     5,07     5,07
       Tea Leaves 250g        2       2,60     2,54     1,29     1,62
       Fresh Milk 500ml      29      15,95    15,95    14,50    21,75
       Cooking Oil 750ml      6       7,50     8,64     8,46     6,30
       Bread 700g            29      24,65    20,30    20,30    20,30
       Flour 2kg              1       1,65     1,65     1,65     1,80
       Rice 2kg               1       1,90     1,90     1,90     1,90
       Salt 2kg               1       0,60     0,70     0,64     0,70
       Vegetables         Selection 31,90     25,74    24,65    26,75
       Meat 1kg               8      31,20    26,32    31,20    31,20
       Bath Soap              4       4,60     4,72     5,20     3,40
       Washing Bar 1KG        4       3,60     2,28     3,64     2,00
       Washing Powder 1KG     2       5,92     5,75     5,75     5,75
               TOTAL                 158,83 142,37 145,85 152,26

Transport Operators’ Association
          CSO's Poverty Datum Line
                2009                                  July                  August
                                                US$          US$          US$          US$
                                           Requirements Requirements Requirements Requirements
 TOTAL CONSUMPTION                            for One      for Five     for One      for Five
                                              Person        People      Person        People
                                  Harare      88,76          443,82     88,20           440,98
                               Bulawayo       93,60          468,02     95,21           476,04
                                Midlands      88,55          427,76     86,08           430,38
                               Masvingo       93,48          467,41     91,10           455,51
                   Mashonaland Central        91,36          456,92     88,43           442,17
                    Matabeleland South        94,12          470,59     97,90           489,52
                     Matabeleland North       93,71          468,56     103,28          516,42
                      Mashonaland West        90,26          451,32     91,29           456,47
                             Manicaland       81,80          408,99     88,46           442,29
                      Mashonaland East        88,61          443,05     90,50           452,48
             Average for Zimbabwe             90,04          450,22     91,91           459,57

           Food Av. as a % of Total           29,7           29,7       29,6            29,6

% Change in Costs per Month                    4,8            4,8       2,1              2,1

Consumer Price Index: Dec '08=100                     91,3                       91,7
Assuming CPI Jan change app. To PDL --
Index of Poverty Datum Line                           81,5                       83,2
                          GOLD PRODUCTION
                             VOLUMES
                     30 000
                                                                                                    LOWEST
KILOGRAMS PER YEAR




                     25 000                                                                          ANNUAL
                     20 000                                                                         OUTPUT
                                                                                                      SINCE
                     15 000                                                                         PRE-1907

                     10 000
                      5 000
                         0
                              1997

                                     1998
                                            1999
                                                   2000

                                                          2001
                                                                 2002
                                                                        2003
                                                                               2004

                                                                                      2005
                                                                                             2006
                                                                                                    2007

                                                                                                           2008
Robertson Economic Information Services
                     GOLD PRICES
               January 3 2005 to Oct 16 2009
              Daily London Bullion Market Prices
                                                 US$1059,50          1100




                                                                             US DOLLARS PER OUNCE
                                                                     1000
                                                                     900
                                                                     800
                                                                     700
                                                                     600
                                                                     500
                                                                     400
                                                                     300
                                                                     200
                                                                     100
                                                                     0

  |    2005      |    2006      |     2007   |   2008   |     2009       |
Robertson Economic Information Services
                           COAL MINING
                 PRODUCTION VOLUMES
          5 000 000

          4 000 000
 TONNES




          3 000 000

          2 000 000

          1 000 000

                  0
                      1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Robertson Economic Information Services
  MINING VOLUME INDICES
      Index: 1998 = 100
1400
                                                                                    Asbestos
1200                                                                                Coal
1000                                                                                Copper

800                                                                                 Gold
                                                                                    Graphite
600
                                                                                    Ferrochrome
400                                                                                 Nickel
200                                                                                 Phosphate
                                                                                    Platinum
  0
       1998

              1999

                     2000

                            2001

                                   2002

                                          2003

                                                 2004

                                                        2005

                                                               2006

                                                                      2007

                                                                             2008
  MINING VOLUME INDICES
      Index: 1998 = 100
160
140
120
100
80                                                                                 NICKEL

60                                                                                 FERROCHROME
                                                                                   GRAPHITE
40                                                                                 COAL
                                                                                   PHOSPHATE
20                                                                                 GOLD
                                                                                   ASBESTOS
 0
      1998

             1999

                    2000

                           2001

                                  2002

                                         2003

                                                2004

                                                       2005

                                                              2006

                                                                     2007

                                                                            2008
                 MANUFACTURING
             All Groups Annual Indices
      120

      100

       80                                   Ministry of Finance
                                                 Estimates
       60                                                             - 86%

       40

       20

         0
             1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Robertson Economic Information Services
                 MANUFACTURING
             All Groups Annual Indices
     120

     100

       80                                     Ministry of Finance
                                              Estimates + Forecast
       60

       40

       20

         0
             1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

                                                                  Estimate
Robertson Economic Information Services
                  MANUFACTURING
    120
                             Food Production
                                          ALL ITEMS AVERAGE
    100

     80

     60

     40

     20

       0
            1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                                                       Estimate
Robertson Economic Information Services
       FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION
                          PERCENTAGES IN 1996

                   Large Scale Commercial   State Land
                   Small Scale Commercial   Communal Areas
                   Resettlement             DTZ




Robertson Economic Information Services           Source: Commercial Farmers Union
       FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION
                          PERCENTAGES IN 2007

                   Large Scale Commercial   State Land
                   Small Scale Commercial   Communal Areas
                   Resettlement             DTZ




Robertson Economic Information Services           Source: Commercial Farmers Union
       FARMLAND DISTRIBUTION
                          PERCENTAGES IN 2009

                   Large Scale Commercial   State Land
                   Small Scale Commercial   Communal Areas
                   Resettlement             DTZ




Robertson Economic Information Services           Source: Commercial Farmers Union
                                          AGRICULTURE
                                         Maize Production
                          2 500
   Tonnes Produced '000




                          2 000


                          1 500


                          1 000


                           500


                             0
                                  1998

                                         1999

                                                2000

                                                       2001

                                                              2002

                                                                     2003

                                                                            2004

                                                                                   2005

                                                                                          2006

                                                                                                 2007

                                                                                                        2008

                                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                       AGRICULTURE
                                      Wheat Production
                    350 000

                    300 000
  Tonnes Produced




                    250 000

                    200 000

                    150 000

                    100 000

                     50 000

                         0
                              1994
                                     1995
                                            1996
                                                   1997
                                                          1998
                                                                 1999
                                                                        2000
                                                                               2001
                                                                                      2002
                                                                                             2003
                                                                                                    2004
                                                                                                           2005
                                                                                                                  2006
                                                                                                                         2007
                                                                                                                                2008
                                                                                                                                       2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                               AGRICULTURE
                                               Soya Production
                           180

                           160
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           140

                           120
                           100

                           80

                           60

                           40
                           20

                            0
                                 1998

                                        1999

                                                2000

                                                       2001

                                                              2002

                                                                     2003

                                                                            2004

                                                                                   2005

                                                                                          2006

                                                                                                 2007

                                                                                                        2008

                                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                              AGRICULTURE
                                              Tea Production
                           25
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           20


                           15


                           10


                           5


                           0
                                1998

                                       1999

                                              2000

                                                     2001

                                                            2002

                                                                   2003

                                                                          2004

                                                                                 2005

                                                                                        2006

                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                      2008

                                                                                                             2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                         AGRICULTURE
                                        Coffee Production
                           10
                           9
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           8
                           7
                           6
                           5
                           4
                           3
                           2
                           1
                           0
                                1998

                                       1999

                                              2000

                                                     2001

                                                            2002

                                                                   2003

                                                                          2004

                                                                                 2005

                                                                                        2006

                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                      2008

                                                                                                             2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                        AGRICULTURE
                                       Paprika Production
                           14

                           12
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           10

                           8

                           6

                           4

                           2

                           0
                                1998

                                       1999

                                              2000

                                                     2001

                                                            2002

                                                                   2003

                                                                          2004

                                                                                 2005

                                                                                        2006

                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                      2008

                                                                                                             2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                        AGRICULTURE
                                       Citrus Production
                           50
                           45
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           40
                           35
                           30
                           25
                           20
                           15
                           10
                           5
                           0
                                2000

                                       2001

                                              2002

                                                     2003

                                                            2004

                                                                   2005

                                                                          2006

                                                                                 2007

                                                                                        2008

                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                    AGRICULTURE
                                Cut Flowers Production
                           25
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           20


                           15


                           10


                           5


                           0
                                2000

                                       2001

                                              2002

                                                     2003

                                                            2004

                                                                   2005

                                                                          2006

                                                                                 2007

                                                                                        2008

                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                AGRICULTURE
                           Fresh Produce Production
                           12
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           10


                           8

                           6


                           4


                           2

                           0
                                2000

                                       2001

                                              2002

                                                     2003

                                                            2004

                                                                   2005

                                                                          2006

                                                                                 2007

                                                                                        2008

                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                       AGRICULTURE
                                    Beef Cattle Slaughtered
                              800

                              700
    Cattle Slaughtered '000




                              600

                              500

                              400

                              300

                              200

                              100

                               0
                                    2000

                                           2001

                                                  2002

                                                         2003

                                                                2004

                                                                       2005

                                                                              2006

                                                                                     2007

                                                                                            2008

                                                                                                   2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                                               AGRICULTURE
                                 Whole Milk Deliveries -- Litres ’000
                                300 000
 Thousands of Litres Produced




                                250 000

                                200 000

                                150 000

                                100 000

                                 50 000

                                     0
                                          1991

                                                 1992

                                                        1993

                                                               1994

                                                                      1995

                                                                             1996

                                                                                    1997

                                                                                           1998

                                                                                                  1999

                                                                                                         2000

                                                                                                                2001

                                                                                                                       2002

                                                                                                                              2003

                                                                                                                                     2004

                                                                                                                                            2005

                                                                                                                                                   2006

                                                                                                                                                          2007

                                                                                                                                                                   2008

                                                                                                                                                                          2009
                                                                                                                                                                 Estimates
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          AGRICULTURE
                                         Sugar Production
                           600
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           500


                           400


                           300


                           200


                           100


                            0
                                 1998

                                        1999

                                               2000

                                                      2001

                                                             2002

                                                                    2003

                                                                           2004

                                                                                  2005

                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                2007

                                                                                                       2008

                                                                                                              2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          AGRICULTURE
                                         Sugar Production
                           600
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           500


                           400


                           300


                           200


                           100


                            0
                                 1998

                                        1999

                                               2000

                                                      2001

                                                             2002

                                                                    2003

                                                                           2004

                                                                                  2005

                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                2007

                                                                                                       2008

                                                                                                              2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                         AGRICULTURE
                                        Barley Production
                           60
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           50


                           40


                           30


                           20


                           10


                           0
                                1998

                                       1999

                                              2000

                                                     2001

                                                            2002

                                                                   2003

                                                                          2004

                                                                                 2005

                                                                                        2006

                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                      2008

                                                                                                             2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                       FLUE-CURED TOBACCO
   Commercial Growers - Mass Sold
                                 250
 MASS SOLD Thousands of Tonnes




                                 200


                                 150


                                 100


                                  50


                                   0
                                       1992
                                              1993
                                                     1994
                                                            1995
                                                                   1996
                                                                          1997
                                                                                 1998
                                                                                        1999
                                                                                               2000
                                                                                                      2001
                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                    2003
                                                                                                                           2004
                                                                                                                                  2005
                                                                                                                                         2006
                                                                                                                                                2007
                                                                                                                                                       2008
                                                                                                                                                              2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                         AGRICULTURE
                                        Cotton Production
                           400

                           350
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           300

                           250

                           200

                           150

                           100

                           50

                            0
                                 1998

                                        1999

                                               2000

                                                      2001

                                                             2002

                                                                    2003

                                                                           2004

                                                                                  2005

                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                2007

                                                                                                       2008

                                                                                                              2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          AGRICULTURE
                                        Sorghum Production
                           140

                           120
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           100

                           80

                           60

                           40

                           20

                            0
                                 1998

                                         1999

                                                2000

                                                       2001

                                                              2002

                                                                     2003

                                                                            2004

                                                                                   2005

                                                                                          2006

                                                                                                 2007

                                                                                                        2008

                                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                 AGRICULTURE
      Production Volume Indices: 2000=100
               Maize                Wheat                 Tobacco              Cotton
160            Soya beans           Tea                   Coffee               Citrus
               Sugar                Dairy                 Beef
140
120
100                                                                                SUGAR
                                                                                   COTTON
80                                                                                 TEA
                                                                                   CITRUS
60                                                                                 DAIRY
                                                                                   BEEF
40                                                                                 SOYA
                                                                                   MAIZE
20                                                                                 TOBACCO
 0                                                                                 COFFEE
                                                                                   WHEAT
        2000
               2001
                      2002
                             2003
                                    2004
                                            2005
                                                   2006
                                                          2007
                                                                 2008
                                                                        2009
                AMMONIUM NITRATE
                  PRODUCTION
           10 000                               BUDGETED OUTPUT
            9 000
                          ACTUAL OUTPUT
            8 000
            7 000
  TONNES




            6 000
            5 000
            4 000
            3 000
            2 000
            1 000
                0
                    Jan    Feb   Mar   Apr   May June July   Aug   Sep

Source: Sable Chemicals
FERTILISER PRICES
 30
 25
 20
 15
 10
 5
 0
      Malawi   South Africa   Zimbabwe
                                         AGRICULTURE
                                        Barley Production
                           60
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           50


                           40


                           30


                           20


                           10


                           0
                                1998

                                       1999

                                              2000

                                                     2001

                                                            2002

                                                                   2003

                                                                          2004

                                                                                 2005

                                                                                        2006

                                                                                               2007

                                                                                                      2008

                                                                                                             2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                       FLUE-CURED TOBACCO
   Commercial Growers - Mass Sold
                                 250
 MASS SOLD Thousands of Tonnes




                                 200


                                 150


                                 100


                                  50


                                   0
                                       1992
                                              1993
                                                     1994
                                                            1995
                                                                   1996
                                                                          1997
                                                                                 1998
                                                                                        1999
                                                                                               2000
                                                                                                      2001
                                                                                                             2002
                                                                                                                    2003
                                                                                                                           2004
                                                                                                                                  2005
                                                                                                                                         2006
                                                                                                                                                2007
                                                                                                                                                       2008
                                                                                                                                                              2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                         AGRICULTURE
                                        Cotton Production
                           400

                           350
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           300

                           250

                           200

                           150

                           100

                           50

                            0
                                 1998

                                        1999

                                               2000

                                                      2001

                                                             2002

                                                                    2003

                                                                           2004

                                                                                  2005

                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                2007

                                                                                                       2008

                                                                                                              2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          AGRICULTURE
                                        Sorghum Production
                           140

                           120
    Tonnes Produced '000




                           100

                           80

                           60

                           40

                           20

                            0
                                 1998

                                         1999

                                                2000

                                                       2001

                                                              2002

                                                                     2003

                                                                            2004

                                                                                   2005

                                                                                          2006

                                                                                                 2007

                                                                                                        2008

                                                                                                               2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                 AGRICULTURE
      Production Volume Indices: 2000=100
               Maize                Wheat                 Tobacco              Cotton
160            Soya beans           Tea                   Coffee               Citrus
               Sugar                Dairy                 Beef
140
120
100                                                                                SUGAR
                                                                                   COTTON
80                                                                                 TEA
                                                                                   CITRUS
60                                                                                 DAIRY
                                                                                   BEEF
40                                                                                 SOYA
                                                                                   MAIZE
20                                                                                 TOBACCO
 0                                                                                 COFFEE
                                                                                   WHEAT
        2000
               2001
                      2002
                             2003
                                    2004
                                            2005
                                                   2006
                                                          2007
                                                                 2008
                                                                        2009
                AMMONIUM NITRATE
                  PRODUCTION
           10 000                               BUDGETED OUTPUT
            9 000
                          ACTUAL OUTPUT
            8 000
            7 000
  TONNES




            6 000
            5 000
            4 000
            3 000
            2 000
            1 000
                0
                    Jan    Feb   Mar   Apr   May June July   Aug   Sep

Source: Sable Chemicals
FERTILISER PRICES
 30
 25
 20
 15
 10
 5
 0
      Malawi   South Africa   Zimbabwe
            POLITICAL TIMELINE
                2008 to 2011

                    Stakeholders    Constitutional      GENERAL
                     Conference     Referendum          ELECTION
  Dollarisation      July 9 - 13    July 2010           BY Jan 2011


                                   Draft             Enactment of new
Hyper-            Consultation     Constitution
                     Period                          Constitution
inflation                          February 2010     September 2010


    2008                2009              2010               2011
          POLITICAL TIMELINE
               2008 to 2014

           Stakeholders      Constitutional      GENERAL
Dollar-     Conference       Referendum          ELECTION
isation     July 9 - 13      July 2010           BY Jan 2011


                           Draft              Enactment of new
Hyper- Consultation        Constitution       Constitution
inflation Period           February 2010      September 2010


  2008    2009      2010         2011         2012     2013      2014
          POLITICAL TIMELINE
               2008 to 2014

           Stakeholders      Constitutional      GENERAL
Dollar-     Conference       Referendum          ELECTION
isation     July 9 - 13      July 2010           BY Jan 2011

                                              RECOVERY?
                           Draft              Enactment of new
Hyper- Consultation        Constitution       Constitution
inflation Period           February 2010      September 2010


  2008    2009      2010         2011         2012     2013      2014
    A RECOVERY WILL BE
    ACHIEVED ONLY IF…
• We successfully restore our power stations
 • We start now to restructure our banks
• We start now to rebuild export revenues
 • We start now to become attractive to:
          – Productive sector investors
             – International Bankers
                – Skilled workers
              – Foreign customers
BANKS RANKED BY DEPOSITS
      CBZ
   Stanbic
 Stanchart
  Barclays
    MBCA
      FBC
 Kingdom
  ZB Bank
      NMB
    ZABG
 Agribank
 Metropoli
        TN
      CFX
       IBC
 US$         0   50 000 000   100 000 000   150 000 000   200 000 000
BANKS RANKED BY LENDING
        CBZ
      MBCA
     Stanbic
  Stanchart
   Kingdom
        NMB
        FBC
    ZB Bank
    Barclays
          TN
Metropolitan
      ZABG
        CFX
   Agribank
         IBC
 US$           0   20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100 000 000
TOTAL LENDING: % OF DEPOSITS
    MBCA
        TN
 Kingdom
      NMB
      CFX
 Metropol
      CBZ
 Stanchar
    ZABG
  ZB Bank
   Stanbic
      FBC
 Agribank
 Barclays
       IBC
     %       0   20   40   60   80   100   120   140   160
                GOVERNMENT REVENUE
                   & EXPENDITURE
                100
                                          REVENUE
                80                EXPENDITURE
US$ ‘millions




                60

                40

                20

                 0
                      JAN   FEB    MAR     APR   MAY   JUN   JUL

Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          2009
                GOVERNMENT REVENUE
                   & EXPENDITURE
                                                                  CAPITAL EXP.

                500                                               INTEREST
                                                 UNALLOCATED
US$ ‘millions




                                                   RESERVE        TRANSFERS
                400                                 ZIMRA
                          BY
                      MID-AUGUST
                300                               OPERATIONS
                                                    PENSIONS
                200                                 GRANTS


                100                               CIVIL SERVICE


                 0
                       REVENUE                   EXPENDITURE

Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          2009
                GOVERNMENT REVENUE
                   & EXPENDITURE
                1500
                                                 STILL TO BE
US$ ‘millions




                                                 BORROWED
                                                 BY YEAR-END
                1000
                       STILL TO BE                BUDGETED
                       COLLECTED                   SPENDING
                       BY YEAR-END                       BY
                500                                YEAR-END
                       COLLECTED
                       BY AUGUST
                  0
                        REVENUE                  EXPENDITURE

Robertson Economic Information Services
                                          2009
                                            BALANCE OF TRADE
                                               2000 TO 2008
                                    3 500
EXPORTS & IMPORTS in US$’millions




                                                    EXPORTS              IMPORTS
                                    3 000

                                    2 500

                                    2 000

                                    1 500

                                    1 000

                                     500

                                       0
                                            2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
           Robertson Economic Information Services                      Source: Budget Review Jul 2009
                                    BALANCE OF TRADE & DEBT
                                          2000 TO 2008
                                    3 500
EXPORTS & IMPORTS in US$’millions




                                               DEBT ARREARS      EXPORTS            IMPORTS
                                    3 000

                                    2 500                                            DEBT
                                                                                  ARREARS
                                    2 000

                                    1 500

                                    1 000

                                     500

                                       0
                                            2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
           Robertson Economic Information Services                         Source: Budget Review Jul 2009
            TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT
                        MILLIONS OF US DOLLARS
          12 000

          10 000

            8 000

            6 000

            4 000

            2 000

                 0
                      2007       2008       2009    2010   2011   2012     2013
Robertson Economic Information Services Estimates                        Source: IMF
             EXTERNAL DEBT
      % of GDP -- IMF Forecasts
200
180
160
140
120
100
 80
 60
 40                  ARREARS
 20
  0
      2007    2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013
                    DEBT RATIOS
           150

           125
 PERCENT




           100

           75
                             DEBT
           50                                GDP
           25

            0
                                          2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                    DEBT RATIOS
           250
           225
           200
           175
 PERCENT




           150
           125
           100               DEBT

                                                 EXPORTS
            75
            50
            25
             0
                                          2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                    DEBT RATIOS
           225
           200
           175
 PERCENT




           150
           125
           100
                             DEBT


                                                 REVENUE
                                                 BUDGET
            75
            50
            25
             0
                                          2009
Robertson Economic Information Services
                    ALLOCATIONS General             Special
                        2009          SDR             SDR
                    SDR ' millions Allocation      Allocation
                    Angola                212,2       60,8
                    Botswana               46,7        6,4
                    D.R. Congo            395,1       29,4
                    Kenya                 201,2       21,5
                    Lesotho                25,9        3,3
                    Malawi                 51,4        3,9
                    Namibia               101,2       29,2
                    Somalia                32,8        4,2
                    South Africa          1385,1      179,9
                    Sudan                 125,8       16,1
                    Swaziland              37,6        4,3
                    Tanzania              147,4       11,7
                    Zambia                362,6       38,3      OVERDUE:
                                                                SDR89m =
                    Zimbabwe               262        66,4      US$139m
Robertson Economic Information Services
 GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE
                          15
                                                               SEVERE DROUGHT YEARS                                                         .
  Year-on-Year Growth %




                          10
                                                                                                              LAND
                           5                                                                                 REFORM
                           0


                           -5


                          -10


                          -15
                                1980


                                       1982


                                              1984


                                                     1986


                                                            1988


                                                                   1990


                                                                          1992


                                                                                 1994


                                                                                        1996


                                                                                               1998


                                                                                                      2000


                                                                                                              2002


                                                                                                                     2004


                                                                                                                            *2006


                                                                                                                                    *2008
Source: CSO + IMF + Robertson Forecasts                                                                                              •Estimates
    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
       US$ per year per person
       1000
        900
        800                                                                                                        IMF
        700                                                                                                     projection
        600
        500
        400
        300
        200
        100
          0
              1980

                     1982

                            1984

                                   1986

                                          1988

                                                 1990

                                                        1992

                                                               1994

                                                                      1996

                                                                             1998

                                                                                    2000

                                                                                           2002

                                                                                                  2004

                                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                                2008

                                                                                                                       2010

                                                                                                                              2012
Robertson Economic Information Services
 GDP FORCASTS - IMF
15

10

 5

 0

 -5

-10

-15
      2008   2009   2010
  GDP FORCASTS –
MINISTRY OF FINANCE
15

10

 5

 0

 -5

-10

-15
      2008   2009   2010
      GDP FORCASTS –
INDEPENDENT ESTIMATE
15

10

 5

 0

 -5

-10

-15
       2008   2009   2010
 GDP ANNUAL % CHANGE
                                                                         IMF Forecasts
                                                                                                                                      IMF
                         20
                                                                                                                                   projection
                         15
 Year-on-Year Growth %




                                                                                                              LAND
                         10
                                                                                                             REFORM
                          5

                          0

                          -5

                         -10

                         -15
                               1980

                                      1982


                                             1984

                                                    1986

                                                           1988

                                                                  1990


                                                                          1992

                                                                                 1994

                                                                                        1996

                                                                                               1998


                                                                                                      2000

                                                                                                              2002

                                                                                                                     2004

                                                                                                                            2006

                                                                                                                                   2008

                                                                                                                                          2010

                                                                                                                                                 2012
Source: CSO + IMF + Robertson Forecasts                                                                                                                 •Estimates
               GDP COMPARISONS:
                 Southern African Countries
       600        2001   2002      2003   2004     2005   2006   2007     2008     2009

       500

       400

       300

       200

       100

         0
               Kenya      Malawi      Mozambique     Tanzania    Zambia          Zimbabwe
Robertson Economic Information Services
  COMPARITIVE POPULATION
GROWTH RATES – 20TH CENTURY


 20

 15

 10

  5
      3,6 - fold
  0
      World
  COMPARITIVE POPULATION
GROWTH RATES – 20TH CENTURY


 20

 15

 10

  5
      3,6 - fold   5,8 - fold
  0
      World        Africa
  COMPARITIVE POPULATION
GROWTH RATES – 20TH CENTURY


 20

 15                              17,1-
                                  fold
 10

  5
      3,6 - fold   5,8 - fold
  0
      World        Africa       Zimbabwe
POPULATION GROWTH 1890 TO 1990
 10 000 000
  9 000 000   Blacks
  8 000 000
  7 000 000   Whites
  6 000 000
  5 000 000
  4 000 000
  3 000 000
  2 000 000
  1 000 000
          0
              1890
              1894
              1898
              1902
              1906
              1910
              1914
              1918
              1922
              1926
              1930
              1934
              1938
              1942
              1946
              1950
              1954
              1958
              1962
              1966
              1970
              1974
              1978
              1982
              1986
              1990
                      TOTAL POPULATION OF
                           ZIMBABWE
                  15 000
                                                                                                                                                                Emigration
                  12 500                                                                                                                                         + HIV ?
Population '000




                  10 000

                   7 500

                   5 000

                   2 500

                      0
                           1988

                                  1989

                                         1990

                                                1991

                                                       1992

                                                              1993

                                                                     1994

                                                                            1995

                                                                                   1996

                                                                                          1997

                                                                                                 1998

                                                                                                        1999

                                                                                                               2000

                                                                                                                      2001

                                                                                                                             2002

                                                                                                                                    2003

                                                                                                                                           2004

                                                                                                                                                  2005

                                                                                                                                                         2006

                                                                                                                                                                2007

                                                                                                                                                                       2008
Robertson Economic Information Services
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
   United States of America
          140
          120
PERCENT




          100              FOOD PRODUCTION AS
                            % OF REQUIREMENTS
           80
           60
           40 FARMERS AS %
           20 OF POPULATION
            0
            1840 1865 1890    1915 1940 1965 1990
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
        Zimbabwe
          140
          120
PERCENT




          100         FOOD PRODUCTION AS
           80           % OF REQUIREMENTS
           60
           40 FARMERS AS %
           20 OF POPULATION
            0
            1890    1915      1940   1965   1990
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
        Zimbabwe?
                                                LAND
          140                                  REFORM
          120
PERCENT




          100           FOOD PRODUCTION AS
           80            % OF REQUIREMENTS
           60
           40
                FARMERS AS %
           20 OF POPULATION
            0
            1890    1915    1940   1965 1990     2015
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
        Zimbabwe?
                                                LAND
          140                                  REFORM
          120
PERCENT




          100           FOOD PRODUCTION AS      ?
           80            % OF REQUIREMENTS
           60
           40
                FARMERS AS %
           20 OF POPULATION
            0
            1890    1915    1940   1965 1990     2015
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
        Zimbabwe?
                                                LAND
          140                                  REFORM
          120
PERCENT




          100           FOOD PRODUCTION AS
           80            % OF REQUIREMENTS
           60
           40
                FARMERS AS %
           20 OF POPULATION
            0
            1890    1915    1940   1965 1990     2015
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
        Zimbabwe?
                                                LAND
          140                                  REFORM
          120
PERCENT




          100           FOOD PRODUCTION AS
                         % OF REQUIREMENTS          FOOD
           80                                        AID
           60
           40
                FARMERS AS %
           20 OF POPULATION
            0
            1890    1915    1940   1965 1990     2015