Risk - DOC

Document Sample
Risk - DOC Powered By Docstoc
Contents [hide]
Risk characteristics
Origin of the risk
Interpretation of risk
Review concept of risk
risk Ciyuan

Risk risk

Concepts: a particular danger, the likelihood and consequences of the combination.
Risk, there are two definitions: a definition emphasizes the performance of the
uncertainty of risk; while another stressed the risks that the definition of uncertainty
for the loss.

If the risk reflected uncertainty, indicating the result of the risk of potential loss, profit
or no profit no loss also belong to the generalized risk, financial risk category. The
risk of loss of performance for the uncertainty, indicating the risk of loss can only be
demonstrated, there is no possibility of profit from the risk, the risk is narrowly
?Risk characteristics
1, objective 2, 3 accidental damage of 4 uncertainty 5, opposite (or variability)
?Origin of the risk
"Risk" the origin of the word, the most common way of saying
that in ancient times to the fishermen fishing fishing for a living, every time before
going out to sea to pray, pray for God to bless their safe return, the main prayer
content is to let God bless your time at sea can be calm, rewarding experience; their
long-term fishing practice, to realize how the "wind" brought
them the danger can not be determined can not be predicted, they realize that playing
in the sea fishing fish life, the "wind" which means
"risk", hence, the "risk" the origin of the

While another is said to demonstrate through a number of scholars of
"risk" of the word "source out of that,"
said the risk (RISK) term is exotic, it was felt from the Arabic, was that derived from
the Spanish or Latin, Compared to the authority of the argument is derived from the
Italian "RISQUE" word. In the early use of, is to be understood
as an objective danger, reflect a natural phenomenon or experience the reef sailing,
storms and other events. About the 19th century, in English usage, the word risk is
often spelled in French, mainly for insurance-related matters.

Modern sense, the term risk has been far beyond the "danger" in
the narrow meaning, but "experienced damage or loss of opportunity or
risk", can be said that, after 200 years of Kingdoms, the term increasingly
risk Vietnam has been conceptualized, and as the complexity of human activities and
the profound nature of the gradually deepening, and is given from philosophy,
economics, sociology, statistics or even the broader field of culture and arts deeper
meaning, and with human the consequences of decisions and actions are becoming
increasingly close, the term risk has become the high frequency of people's
lives in the vocabulary.

In any case the origin of the definition of the term risk, but the basic core meaning is
"the uncertainty of future results or loss", it was also further
defined as "individuals and groups face in the future the possibility of
injury and the possibility Judgement and perception. " If you take the
appropriate measures to make the probability of damage or loss does not occur, or
wisdom, understanding, rational judgments, and then to take timely and effective
preventive measures, then the risk of potential opportunities, which further extends
the meaning, not only only to avoid the risk would lead to unequal income ratio, and
sometimes the bigger the risk, higher return, the greater the opportunity.

Therefore, how to judge the risk, select the risk, avoid risk and then use risk, the risk
to seek opportunities to create income, meaning more far-reaching and significant.
[Interpretation of risk

◆ nature of the risks

Risks are universality, objectivity, loss, uncertainty and social.

◆ risk frequency and risk

Risk Frequency: also known as loss frequency, is the subject of a number, in
determining the time the number of accidents.

Risk Level: also known as the losses, is the subject of every occurrence of the damage
caused in an accident situation, that is, the value of total damage was the percentage
of the total value of the underlying damage.

◇ real-life relationship between the two is: is generally inversely proportional to

The risk of high frequency, but not the degree of risk;
Frequency is not high risk, but a great degree of risk.

◆ cost of risk

The existence of risk and risk people after the accident must increase expenditures
and expected decreases in economic benefits, also known as the cost of risk.

Including the actual cost of the risk of loss, risk the loss of the intangible costs and
risks of loss prevention and control costs.

◆ Elements of risk

(A) risk factors

It is the risk of potential causes of the accident is caused by loss of internal or

According to the different nature of risk factors can be divided into real risk factors,
moral and psychological risk factors, risk factors, three types:

1, material risk factors.

2, moral risk factors. (Intentionally)

3, psychological risk factors. (Fault, negligence unintentionally)

(B) the risk of accidents

The risk of accident was contributed to the loss of direct or external reason is the loss
of vehicle, that risk only by the occurrence of risk can lead to losses.

On an event, if it is the direct cause of the loss, it is the risk of accidents; in other
conditions, if it is the indirect cause of losses, it will become a risk factor.

For example: 1, under the slippery hail a car accident, causing two casualties, hail
directly injured pedestrian

(C) loss

In risk management, the loss is unintentional, unexpected, unplanned reduction in
economic value.

Usually we will lose is divided into two forms, namely, direct losses and indirect
losses. The risk of direct loss is their loss of property caused by accident and personal
injury, loss of such losses, also known as real; Introduction loss refers to the direct
loss caused by the other losses, including the additional costs, lost income, loss and
liability losses. In risk management, usually the loss is divided into four categories:
real loss, additional costs, lost income, loss and liability losses.

◆ the relationship between risk elements

Risk is the risk factor, risk of accidents and loss of the three constitute the unity of the
three relations:

Risk factors that cause or increase the risk of accident occurrence or aggravation of
the loss rate of the condition, is the risk of potential causes of the accident;

The risk of accident was loss of life and property caused by accidental events, are
caused by the loss of direct or external reason is the loss of the media;

Damage is unintentional, unexpected and unplanned reduction in economic value.

The three relationships: risk is a risk factor, risk of accidents and loss of the three
form a unity, risk factors or increase the risk of accidents; the risk of accidents may
result in the loss.

◆ risk unit (risk unit)

The risk of occurrence of an accident may result in the loss of the largest range of
subject matter. Insurance companies to determine the maximum affordable basis for
insurance liabilities.

"The People's Republic of China Insurance Law,"
Article 100 clearly states: risk insurance for each unit, the one insured maximum loss
potential liability, shall not exceed the actual capital reserve fund 10% of the total;
over The section should apply for re-insurance.
?Review concept of risk
At present, the academic content of risk no uniform definition of risk due to different
levels of understanding and awareness of, or the risk of a different angle, different
scholars have different interpretation of the concept of risk, but can be summarized as
the following kind of representative views.

First, risk is the event of possible future results to uncertainty

AH Mowbray (1995) said the risk of uncertainty; CA Williams (1985) defined the risk
conditions and given a specific period of time, the result of changes in the future;
March & Shapira that the risk is the uncertainty of possible outcomes of
things, measure by the variance of income distribution; Brnmiley that income flow
risk is the uncertainty of the company; Markowitz and Sharp and other risks of
investment securities for the securities assets of the definition of the various possible
changes in yield level and used to measure the rate of return variance securities
investment risk, by quantifying the concept of risk has changed the investing
public's understanding of risk. As the variance of the convenience of
calculation, the risk of such a definition in practice has been widely used.

Second, risk is the uncertainty of loss

J. S. Rosenb "(1972) defined as the loss of the risk of uncertainty, FG
Crane (1984) mean that the more risk the uncertainty of future losses,
'Biokett, Charnes, Cooper & Probability described (Wang
Mingtao, 2003). Ruefli and other risks defined as the set of adverse events or
incidents from happening. with this view is divided into two types of subjective
theory and objective theory. subjective theory that uncertainty is subjective, personal
and psychological to the notion that individual subjective estimates of objective things,
but can not be measured objectively measure, the range of uncertainty include the
uncertainty of whether or not occurred, the occurrence time of uncertainty, the
uncertainty of the situation occurred and the severity of the result occurred uncertainty.
the objective theory is based on the premise of objective risk, to risk an accident based
on the observation to be defined mathematical and statistical point of view, that risk
can be an objective scale to measure. For example, the risk is defined as the risk
Peffert the objective is to measure the size of the probability; FH Knight, Risk is the
uncertainty can be determined.

Third, risk is the possible loss of the size of the extent of damage

Opening paragraph that age, the risk can be defined as the expected loss extended the
negative deviation, where the so-called negative refers to the purposes of insurance
companies or insurance companies. For example, if the actual loss rate is greater than
expected loss rate, this positive deviation of the insurance companies shall be adverse
deviation, that is, the risks faced by insurance companies (Da, Hu Yi, 2001). Others
questioned the tomb Markowitz basis, excluding the possibility of higher yields than
expected rate of return of the situation, made under risk (Downsiderisk) the concept
that to achieve the rate of return lower than the expected rate of return risk, and with
the semi-variance (Sernivaviance) to measure downside risk (Zhou Gang, M. .1999).

Fourth, risk is the loss of the size and likelihood of occurrence

Zhu Shuzhen (2002), the risks described in the summary, based on the definition of
risk as: Risk is the means and the period of time under certain conditions, a variety of
results to uncertainty caused by the size of the actors, and this loss species of the size
of the possibility of loss, risk is a two concept, risk as to the size of the loss and loss to
measure the probability of two indicators. Wang Mingtao (2003), the risks described
in the summary, based on the risk is defined as: the so-called risk is the
decision-making process, because the role of various uncertainties, making the
program a certain time, the possibility of adverse results and the possible extent of the
loss. It includes the probability of loss, possible loss of quantity and volatility of
losses in three aspects, which may extent of the loss is the most important position.

Fifth, risk is the risk posed by the result of the interaction elements

Risk factors, risk events and risk results of the basic elements of risk, the risk of the
formation of risk factors is a necessary condition for the existence of risk generation
and the premise. Risk sharing pieces of the external environment variable is expected
to occur about inadequate results of changes in the events leading to the risk, the risk
exists that it is a sufficient condition to occupy the entire risk of the heart. Risk events
are connected risk factors and risk results of the bridge. Is the risk of the possibilities
into reality of the media. The formation mechanism based on risk, GUO Xiao-ting,
Yong-jian (2002) defined the risk: risk is a certain period of time, to appropriate the
necessary conditions of risk factors. Risks incident to the corresponding sufficient
conditions for the actors to bear the corresponding risk the possibility of the results.
Yeh, Yi Dan-hui (2000) that the meaning of risk is that it is in a certain period of time,
risk factors, risk of accidents and the risk of the results showed the possibility of
progressive links.

Sixth, the use of the volatility of the standard statistical definition of risk measurement

Published in 1993, the Group of 30, "Practice and Principles of derivative
securities," report on the known position or combination of market risk is
defined as: After a certain time interval, has a range of Industry and the maximum
possible loss, and This approach called Value at Risk, VaR method for short. And
strive to recommend this method of international banking; Bank for International
Settlements in 1996 in the "amendment to the Basel Agreement,"
also has to allow countries to use their own internal risk bank valuation model to set
up to deal with market risk capital; 1997 P. Jorion financial risk in the study, the use
of "normal market environment, given a certain time interval and
confidence level, the maximum loss expected (or worst-case loss)" in the
definition and measurement method to measure the financial risks, This approach will
also be referred to as VaR method (P. Jorion, 1997).

7, using the random uncertainty to define the risk characteristics of

The risks of uncertainty and randomness, including two types of chess paste. Fuzzy
uncertainty depends largely on the risks inherent in the fuzzy attributes, fuzzy
mathematics method to be used to characterize and study; and random uncertainty,
mainly due to risk more because of external (ie all random factors) caused necessarily
reflect, to use probability theory and mathematical statistics methods to characterize
and study.

According to the uncertainty of the random characteristics, the risk of a unit to
measure the relative degree of risk, Hu Yi Da, SHEN Hou and offered only the
concept of degree of risk that the objective conditions in a particular, specific time,
the actual loss and loss forecast mean square error between the mathematical
expectation and prediction of loss ratio. It said that the relative variation of the risk of
loss (ie, unpredictable degree) of a dimensionless (or percentage) of the amount.

Shared By: