Risk Risk Contents [hide] Definition Risk characteristics Origin of the risk Interpretation of risk Review concept of risk risk Ciyuan Risk risk Concepts: a particular danger, the likelihood and consequences of the combination. ?Definition Risk, there are two definitions: a definition emphasizes the performance of the uncertainty of risk; while another stressed the risks that the definition of uncertainty for the loss. If the risk reflected uncertainty, indicating the result of the risk of potential loss, profit or no profit no loss also belong to the generalized risk, financial risk category. The risk of loss of performance for the uncertainty, indicating the risk of loss can only be demonstrated, there is no possibility of profit from the risk, the risk is narrowly defined. ?Risk characteristics 1, objective 2, 3 accidental damage of 4 uncertainty 5, opposite (or variability) ?Origin of the risk &quot;Risk&quot; the origin of the word, the most common way of saying that in ancient times to the fishermen fishing fishing for a living, every time before going out to sea to pray, pray for God to bless their safe return, the main prayer content is to let God bless your time at sea can be calm, rewarding experience; their long-term fishing practice, to realize how the &quot;wind&quot; brought them the danger can not be determined can not be predicted, they realize that playing in the sea fishing fish life, the &quot;wind&quot; which means &quot;risk&quot;, hence, the &quot;risk&quot; the origin of the word. While another is said to demonstrate through a number of scholars of &quot;risk&quot; of the word &quot;source out of that,&quot; said the risk (RISK) term is exotic, it was felt from the Arabic, was that derived from the Spanish or Latin, Compared to the authority of the argument is derived from the Italian &quot;RISQUE&quot; word. In the early use of, is to be understood as an objective danger, reflect a natural phenomenon or experience the reef sailing, storms and other events. About the 19th century, in English usage, the word risk is often spelled in French, mainly for insurance-related matters. Modern sense, the term risk has been far beyond the &quot;danger&quot; in the narrow meaning, but &quot;experienced damage or loss of opportunity or risk&quot;, can be said that, after 200 years of Kingdoms, the term increasingly risk Vietnam has been conceptualized, and as the complexity of human activities and the profound nature of the gradually deepening, and is given from philosophy, economics, sociology, statistics or even the broader field of culture and arts deeper meaning, and with human the consequences of decisions and actions are becoming increasingly close, the term risk has become the high frequency of people&#39;s lives in the vocabulary. In any case the origin of the definition of the term risk, but the basic core meaning is &quot;the uncertainty of future results or loss&quot;, it was also further defined as &quot;individuals and groups face in the future the possibility of injury and the possibility Judgement and perception. &quot; If you take the appropriate measures to make the probability of damage or loss does not occur, or wisdom, understanding, rational judgments, and then to take timely and effective preventive measures, then the risk of potential opportunities, which further extends the meaning, not only only to avoid the risk would lead to unequal income ratio, and sometimes the bigger the risk, higher return, the greater the opportunity. Therefore, how to judge the risk, select the risk, avoid risk and then use risk, the risk to seek opportunities to create income, meaning more far-reaching and significant. [Interpretation of risk risk ◆ nature of the risks Risks are universality, objectivity, loss, uncertainty and social. ◆ risk frequency and risk Risk Frequency: also known as loss frequency, is the subject of a number, in determining the time the number of accidents. Risk Level: also known as the losses, is the subject of every occurrence of the damage caused in an accident situation, that is, the value of total damage was the percentage of the total value of the underlying damage. ◇ real-life relationship between the two is: is generally inversely proportional to The risk of high frequency, but not the degree of risk; Frequency is not high risk, but a great degree of risk. ◆ cost of risk The existence of risk and risk people after the accident must increase expenditures and expected decreases in economic benefits, also known as the cost of risk. Including the actual cost of the risk of loss, risk the loss of the intangible costs and risks of loss prevention and control costs. ◆ Elements of risk (A) risk factors It is the risk of potential causes of the accident is caused by loss of internal or indirectly. According to the different nature of risk factors can be divided into real risk factors, moral and psychological risk factors, risk factors, three types: 1, material risk factors. 2, moral risk factors. (Intentionally) 3, psychological risk factors. (Fault, negligence unintentionally) (B) the risk of accidents The risk of accident was contributed to the loss of direct or external reason is the loss of vehicle, that risk only by the occurrence of risk can lead to losses. On an event, if it is the direct cause of the loss, it is the risk of accidents; in other conditions, if it is the indirect cause of losses, it will become a risk factor. For example: 1, under the slippery hail a car accident, causing two casualties, hail directly injured pedestrian (C) loss In risk management, the loss is unintentional, unexpected, unplanned reduction in economic value. Usually we will lose is divided into two forms, namely, direct losses and indirect losses. The risk of direct loss is their loss of property caused by accident and personal injury, loss of such losses, also known as real; Introduction loss refers to the direct loss caused by the other losses, including the additional costs, lost income, loss and liability losses. In risk management, usually the loss is divided into four categories: real loss, additional costs, lost income, loss and liability losses. ◆ the relationship between risk elements Risk is the risk factor, risk of accidents and loss of the three constitute the unity of the three relations: Risk factors that cause or increase the risk of accident occurrence or aggravation of the loss rate of the condition, is the risk of potential causes of the accident; The risk of accident was loss of life and property caused by accidental events, are caused by the loss of direct or external reason is the loss of the media; Damage is unintentional, unexpected and unplanned reduction in economic value. The three relationships: risk is a risk factor, risk of accidents and loss of the three form a unity, risk factors or increase the risk of accidents; the risk of accidents may result in the loss. ◆ risk unit (risk unit) The risk of occurrence of an accident may result in the loss of the largest range of subject matter. Insurance companies to determine the maximum affordable basis for insurance liabilities. &quot;The People&#39;s Republic of China Insurance Law,&quot; Article 100 clearly states: risk insurance for each unit, the one insured maximum loss potential liability, shall not exceed the actual capital reserve fund 10% of the total; over The section should apply for re-insurance. ?Review concept of risk At present, the academic content of risk no uniform definition of risk due to different levels of understanding and awareness of, or the risk of a different angle, different scholars have different interpretation of the concept of risk, but can be summarized as the following kind of representative views. First, risk is the event of possible future results to uncertainty AH Mowbray (1995) said the risk of uncertainty; CA Williams (1985) defined the risk conditions and given a specific period of time, the result of changes in the future; March &amp; Shapira that the risk is the uncertainty of possible outcomes of things, measure by the variance of income distribution; Brnmiley that income flow risk is the uncertainty of the company; Markowitz and Sharp and other risks of investment securities for the securities assets of the definition of the various possible changes in yield level and used to measure the rate of return variance securities investment risk, by quantifying the concept of risk has changed the investing public&#39;s understanding of risk. As the variance of the convenience of calculation, the risk of such a definition in practice has been widely used. Second, risk is the uncertainty of loss J. S. Rosenb &quot;(1972) defined as the loss of the risk of uncertainty, FG Crane (1984) mean that the more risk the uncertainty of future losses, &#39;Biokett, Charnes, Cooper &amp; Probability described (Wang Mingtao, 2003). Ruefli and other risks defined as the set of adverse events or incidents from happening. with this view is divided into two types of subjective theory and objective theory. subjective theory that uncertainty is subjective, personal and psychological to the notion that individual subjective estimates of objective things, but can not be measured objectively measure, the range of uncertainty include the uncertainty of whether or not occurred, the occurrence time of uncertainty, the uncertainty of the situation occurred and the severity of the result occurred uncertainty. the objective theory is based on the premise of objective risk, to risk an accident based on the observation to be defined mathematical and statistical point of view, that risk can be an objective scale to measure. For example, the risk is defined as the risk Peffert the objective is to measure the size of the probability; FH Knight, Risk is the uncertainty can be determined. Third, risk is the possible loss of the size of the extent of damage Opening paragraph that age, the risk can be defined as the expected loss extended the negative deviation, where the so-called negative refers to the purposes of insurance companies or insurance companies. For example, if the actual loss rate is greater than expected loss rate, this positive deviation of the insurance companies shall be adverse deviation, that is, the risks faced by insurance companies (Da, Hu Yi, 2001). Others questioned the tomb Markowitz basis, excluding the possibility of higher yields than expected rate of return of the situation, made under risk (Downsiderisk) the concept that to achieve the rate of return lower than the expected rate of return risk, and with the semi-variance (Sernivaviance) to measure downside risk (Zhou Gang, M. .1999). Fourth, risk is the loss of the size and likelihood of occurrence Zhu Shuzhen (2002), the risks described in the summary, based on the definition of risk as: Risk is the means and the period of time under certain conditions, a variety of results to uncertainty caused by the size of the actors, and this loss species of the size of the possibility of loss, risk is a two concept, risk as to the size of the loss and loss to measure the probability of two indicators. Wang Mingtao (2003), the risks described in the summary, based on the risk is defined as: the so-called risk is the decision-making process, because the role of various uncertainties, making the program a certain time, the possibility of adverse results and the possible extent of the loss. It includes the probability of loss, possible loss of quantity and volatility of losses in three aspects, which may extent of the loss is the most important position. Fifth, risk is the risk posed by the result of the interaction elements Risk factors, risk events and risk results of the basic elements of risk, the risk of the formation of risk factors is a necessary condition for the existence of risk generation and the premise. Risk sharing pieces of the external environment variable is expected to occur about inadequate results of changes in the events leading to the risk, the risk exists that it is a sufficient condition to occupy the entire risk of the heart. Risk events are connected risk factors and risk results of the bridge. Is the risk of the possibilities into reality of the media. The formation mechanism based on risk, GUO Xiao-ting, Yong-jian (2002) defined the risk: risk is a certain period of time, to appropriate the necessary conditions of risk factors. Risks incident to the corresponding sufficient conditions for the actors to bear the corresponding risk the possibility of the results. Yeh, Yi Dan-hui (2000) that the meaning of risk is that it is in a certain period of time, risk factors, risk of accidents and the risk of the results showed the possibility of progressive links. Sixth, the use of the volatility of the standard statistical definition of risk measurement methods Published in 1993, the Group of 30, &quot;Practice and Principles of derivative securities,&quot; report on the known position or combination of market risk is defined as: After a certain time interval, has a range of Industry and the maximum possible loss, and This approach called Value at Risk, VaR method for short. And strive to recommend this method of international banking; Bank for International Settlements in 1996 in the &quot;amendment to the Basel Agreement,&quot; also has to allow countries to use their own internal risk bank valuation model to set up to deal with market risk capital; 1997 P. Jorion financial risk in the study, the use of &quot;normal market environment, given a certain time interval and confidence level, the maximum loss expected (or worst-case loss)&quot; in the definition and measurement method to measure the financial risks, This approach will also be referred to as VaR method (P. Jorion, 1997). 7, using the random uncertainty to define the risk characteristics of The risks of uncertainty and randomness, including two types of chess paste. Fuzzy uncertainty depends largely on the risks inherent in the fuzzy attributes, fuzzy mathematics method to be used to characterize and study; and random uncertainty, mainly due to risk more because of external (ie all random factors) caused necessarily reflect, to use probability theory and mathematical statistics methods to characterize and study. According to the uncertainty of the random characteristics, the risk of a unit to measure the relative degree of risk, Hu Yi Da, SHEN Hou and offered only the concept of degree of risk that the objective conditions in a particular, specific time, the actual loss and loss forecast mean square error between the mathematical expectation and prediction of loss ratio. It said that the relative variation of the risk of loss (ie, unpredictable degree) of a dimensionless (or percentage) of the amount.