UPDATE: Quota Phase-out & Textile Safeguard NCC Asheville Meeting July 20, 2004 Presentation 1. China and the Quota Phase-out - 2. How to Counter 3. Strategy • World Pressure • Hill Pressure • Administration Outreach 4. Final Attempt • Voter Education Campaign - Grassroots Pressure 5. Coming Up…. Study: China’s Share of Apparel Removed From Quota in 2002 100% 30 months UPDATED 75-80% time - 72% 72% 53% 31% 9% 0% 2001 2002 Jun 03 Jun 04 2004 China with Quotas in Place 15% 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 0% China Thai Mexico CBI Taiw Bang Phil China 30 Months Later 75% 72% China drops prices 53% 4% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 0% China Thai Mexico CBI Taiw Bang Phil Predictions Chinese share Cotton Sourcing Summit Survey – Miami 87% said: 50 – 90% 43% said: 75 - 90% Past experience – other Australia and Japan: markets - apparel 70 – 77% Quota removed categories (as of June 04) 72% + WTO Study (no recent data) 56% (China + India = 71%) Analysis: Similar products 70% – 85% McKinsey Study & DHL Study 50% (safeguards) ITC Study “Supplier of Choice” World Bank Study (no recent data) 50% US Textile Cotton Consumption (mil bales) 7 6.2 Remnants – Non-wovens, carpeting <2 0 Jun 04 2006 How to Counter China Government to use the “threat of market disruption” track of WTO safeguard clause to keep China under control until 2008 Aggressive use of trade remedies to go after Chinese and other countries unfair trade practices post 2005 China WTO Textile Safeguard Takes until Aug 1 to get a decision – lasts only until Dec 31. Process starts over again in January 05 5 month safeguard each year “Threat” Case File prior to China going off quota – decision in January. Under “threat,” China will held to 2004 quota levels plus 7.5%; Will force China to the table to negotiate a comprehensive agreement covering the next three years. Government on using “Threat” Big Confrontation with China / importers and retailers strongly oppose Refused to consider in previous safeguard actions Not released criteria to even file a case Industry Strategy 1. Worldwide Coalition Gov. Restrains 2. Hill Pressure China Using 3. Grassroots Campaign “Threat” World Wide Pressure Global Alliance for Fair Textile Trade (GAFTT) • Begun March 2004 • Now 102 trade groups from 51 countries • Events in Istanbul, Johannesburg, Kampala, Brussels and Geneva www.fairtextiletrade.org Growing Global Effort 9 countries have announced at WTO that something must be done about China – Mexico, Turkey, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Nepal, Dominican Republic, Madagascar 30 million jobs are predicted to be lost Concerns about economic dislocation, instability, increased poverty, terrorism WTO to meet Oct. 1st Council on Trade in Goods More countries expected to speak up Make sure that they support use of “threat” Increase pressure on White House to act on developing countries behalf Hill Pressure Two letters on China and safeguards – over 100 signatures on each Unity DAY- July 20th – over 100 textile executives visited more than 40 offices to talk about China High level meetings with DOLE and BURR to plan strategy re: White House Administration Outreach 4 attempts (NCC, NCTO) to meet with Aldonas/Commerce over China & CAFTA since January First meeting took place last week to begin to discuss criteria for “threat” Meeting w/Zoellick – warning over confrontation Outreach to White House Gant has used personal channels Burr has called twice Dole has met with Zoellick and called White House. Also wrote to Powell. Zoellick has called twice Aldonas has now called NO RESPONSE TO DATE Final Attempt Voter Education Campaign Targeted on Trade and Loss of Jobs Overseas – N. Carolina heavy + S. Carolina Ramp Up Over Time: Billboards then Radio Can be stopped at any time Stop Sending Jobs Overseas Change Trade Policy Now Change Trade Policy Now Register…Vote! Grassroots Portion “Textile coordinators” in every plant Voter registration drives 4 major rallies Website: www.myjobcounts.org Editorial boards/leafleting/letters to editor/billboards/bumper stickers Coming Up Ask for major trade groups to help fund support grassroots campaign Campaign ramp up to begin soon after Labor Day Industry likely to file dozens of petitions late September/early October GAFTT to have major summit in Geneva prior to Oct. 1st meeting.
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