General Fund Revenue Estimates by absences


									                      General Fund Revenue Estimates

The general fund revenue estimate for the first quarter is the same as the
approved FY/08 budgeted revenues, with the exception of the movement of $430
thousand in State grants. An estimate of year end FY/07 revenues is presented
as an unaudited number. Trends of the revenues through the first quarter are
presented and any differences from the budget and concerns are noted in the
following sections. The Five-Year Forecast is being prepared, and will be
presented to Council in December. It will provide detailed estimates of revenues
for the current fiscal year and FY/09 to FY/12.

There are a number of weaknesses in the economy at this point and forecasts of
employment and construction activity both national and local are more
pessimistic tan the forecasts that supported the approved FY/08 budget..
Employment growth in the Albuquerque area has slowed, from over 3% to 1%.
This slowdown is led by layoffs at Intel, PNM, Advent Solar, and Eclipse Aviation.
Layoffs at Sandia and Los Alamos National Labs are part of federal budget
discussions. Single family construction has gone from a booming industry to a
trickle. In FY/05 the average number of single family permits issued in a month
was 414 this slowed to 361 in FY/06 and 204 in FY/07. Permits in September
and October of 2007 moved to new lows with only 74 and 76 houses

These weaknesses act to slow down not only GRT, but building permits, other
construction related charges and charges related to entrance at the City’s

Gross Receipts Tax. GRT revenues ended FY/07 somewhat stronger than
anticipated pushing up the base for FY/08. Growth for FY/07 in the one-percent
distribution was 8.2% while the estimate was 7.5%. Total GRT revenue was
$2.95 million or 0.8% above the estimate. The estimated growth in the one-
percent distribution for the FY/08 budget was 4.3%. The first quarter growth was
only 2.9% and construction GRT was down 12.3%. This slowdown in GRT is the
biggest risk to the FY/08 revenue forecast. The national economy is slowing and
the risk of a recession has increased. As noted above the local economy is also
slowing. The Five-Year Forecast will pay particular attention to this risk.

Property Tax. FY/07 growth was 6.5% and $420 thousand above estimate. The
FY/08 estimate was set at 2.5% and it now appears that the tax base that
collections are based on has increased 11%. The Five-Year Forecast will make
a re-estimate of these taxes.

Franchise Taxes.        Franchise taxes in FY/07 were near expectations.
Telecommunications continues to be a drag, and the warm winter in FY/06
limited natural gas use. In FY/07 prices of natural gas declined making the first
nine months revenues only equal to FY/06 somewhat less than forecast. Cable
franchise revenues continue to be strong and should be enough to offset the
weakness in natural gas. Telephone franchise revenues in the first three
quarters are inline with the flat forecast. Electricity franchise revenues are inline
with their forecast. The Water Authority franchise should be near the estimate.

Payments-In-Lieu-Of-Taxes (PILOT). PILOT revenues are expected to equal
the FY/08 budgeted level.

                              General Fund Revenue Estimates
                                    First Quarter FY/08
                                  In thousands of dollars
                                                     UNAUDITED                           1st Quarter
                                         Actual       ACTUAL   APROVED FIRST QTR           minus
                                         FY/06          FY/07        FY/08     FY/08     APPROVED
     Gross Receipts Taxes               253,565         274,763     284,303    284,303          -
     Public Safety GRT                   34,066         36,933       38,196     38,196          -
     Quarter-cut to 1/8th                34,066         29,451       19,098     19,098          -
     Total GRT                           321,697        341,147     341,597    341,597          -
     Property Taxes                       28,605         30,452      30,782     30,782          -

       Telephone Franchise                  3,242          3,199       3,070     3,070            -
       Electric Franchise                   5,887          5,932       5,960     5,960            -
       Gas Franchise                        5,494          5,606       6,422     6,422            -
       Cable Franchise                      3,358          3,642       3,706     3,706            -
       Other Franchise                        772            599         808       808            -
       Water Authority Franchise            5,203          5,164       5,195     5,195            -
     Sub total Franchises                  23,955         24,142      25,161    25,161            -

     PILOT(without water)                   1,465          1,510       1,570     1,570            -
     Building Permits                      12,243         10,204      10,485    10,485            -
     Other Licenses/Fees                    2,960          3,035       3,106     3,106            -
     Other Intergov'l                       6,489          5,174       4,580     5,010            430
     Charges for Services                  19,166         18,704      19,277    19,277            -
     Internal Service                       1,010            997       1,759     1,759            -
     Indirect Overhead                     13,811         13,045      14,154    14,154            -
     CIP-Funded Positions                   7,692          7,284       9,211     9,211            -
     Fines and Penalties*                   1,802          9,199       5,632     5,632            -
     Other Miscellaneous                    1,242            753         873       873            -
     Interest on Invest                     3,015          3,852       3,124     3,124            -
     Interfund Transfers                    2,140          2,591       3,987     3,987            -
     TOTAL REVENUE                         447,293        472,087    475,298   475,728            430

     Non-Recurring Revenue                  12,980         18,238     22,192    22,595            403
     RECURRING REVENUE                     434,313        453,849    453,106   453,133             27

     *Revenues will be moved to Photo Enforcement Fund in 2nd quarter 2008.
Building Permits. Building inspection permit revenues for FY/07 were $281
thousand or almost 3% below the estimated actuals. This is 16.7% below the
FY/06 level. FY/08 permit revenues were estimated to be at the same level as
the FY/07 estimate. For the first quarter of FY/08 revenues are 8.7% below the
first quarter of FY/07. Single Family permits for FY/07 were 43.5% below FY/06
with the average number of homes permitted per month at 361 in FY/06
compared to 204 in FY/07. In September of 2007 only 74 permits were issued
for single family homes. Preliminary numbers for October 2007 indicate a similar
number of homes permitted. Total value of permits actually increased in the first
quarter, but this was due mostly to the permitting of a 198 unit apartment
complex and two hotels.

Other Permits. Included in this category are revenues from permits and
licenses for restaurant inspections, animal control, liquor establishments,
business registrations, use of City right of way, and other miscellaneous fees.
These revenues in the first quarter are on track to meet the budget.

Other Intergovernmental Assistance. Other intergovernmental assistance
includes state shared revenues (excluding GRT), grants and county shared
revenues. This category has declined in recent years due to changes in state
policy and the manner in which grant revenue is received. In FY/06 revenue
from FEMA increased revenues substantially to compensate the City for costs
incurred related to hurricanes.

Revenues in general are expected at the level anticipated in the FY/08 budget.
There is an increase of $430 thousand in State grants moved from the capital
fund to the General Fund. The revenue from the State for funding Corrections
will also be received as the City is still funding part of the operations of the
detention center. This amount will be estimated in the Five-Year Forecast.

Charges for Services. Charges for services include fees charged for entry into
City venues and services provided to citizens. It also includes some revenues for
charges to other governmental entities. The first quarter has a decline of 2.3%,
compared to expect growth in the budget of 4.3%. This is largely due to large
declines in construction related revenues such as engineering fees, zoning plan
checks, and filing of plats and subdivisions. In addition revenues for records
search fees related to subdivisions is also down.

Internal Service. Internal service revenues are expected to be at the FY/08
budgeted level.

Indirect Overhead. Indirect overhead is kept at the budgeted level.

CIP-Funded Positions. Revenues are in line with the level in the approved
FY/08 budget.
Fines and Forfeitures. The FY/07 revenues ended near the estimated level
prepared during the FY/08 budget. The STOP photo enforcement program
brought in $9 million. In FY/08 revenues for the STOP program were estimated
at $5.5 million the level of appropriation estimated for the program. All revenues
from this fund will be moved to the Photo Enforcement Fund in the 2 nd quarter
2008. There is no net effect on the FY/08 General Fund as the same amount of
appropriation/expense is moved to the new fund.

Interest Earnings. Interest earnings were stronger than expected in FY/07.
Interest rates remained high as did fund balances. This will be looked at in light
of new interest rates forecasts in the Five-Year Forecast.

Other Miscellaneous Revenues. Other miscellaneous receipts for FY/08 are
not changed from the budgeted level.

Interfund Transfers. Interfund transfers are in line with the level in the approved
FY/08 budget.

                            Other Operating Funds

                                  Fire Fund 210

The primary source of revenue in this fund is the allocation from the State Fire
Marshal’s Office. Actual revenue collected from the State for FY/08 was received
in July 2007 and is $58 thousand higher than estimated. Interest earnings are
anticipated to be $28 thousand above the budgeted level.

                              Recreation Fund 215

Revenues from the cigarette tax have declined over the past few fiscal years.
FY/08 revenue is budgeted at $230 thousand and it is anticipated that revenue
will come in at the budgeted level.

                             Lodgers' Tax Fund 220

Revenues for Lodgers’ Tax revenues finished FY/07 with growth of 8%. The
year end FY/07 revenue of $10.798 equaled the revised FY/07 estimate. The
approved FY/08 budget anticipates growth of 3.5% and the estimate is kept at
this level. Only two months revenue is currently available and a forecast will be
made for the second quarter revenue report.
                           Hospitality Fee Fund 221

As with Lodgers Tax, Hospitality Fee revenues grew 8% in FY/07 exceeding the
FY/07 budgeted amount but equaling the estimate. Hospitality fees are 1/5 th of
Lodgers’ tax and a new forecast of Hospitality fees will be done in conjunction
with Lodgers’ Tax.

                     Open and Ethical Elections Fund 232

Revenues for this fund are comprised of one-tenth of 1% of the approved
General Fund and from qualifying contributions from qualifying candidates. In
FY/08, this fund is projected to reach it’s budgeted level of $885 thousand.

                             Air Quality Fund 242

First quarter estimated revenues for the Air Quality Fund are projected to
increase slightly to $2.9 million from the budgeted level of $2.7 million. The
increase is due to Air Quality permit revenues which have come in over $200
thousand above the estimated amount. Most of this revenue is received in the
first quarter and is therefore projected at actual for the 1 st quarter. All other
revenue categories are projected at their budgeted level.

                          Heart Ordinance Fund 243

This fund is projected to receive $124 thousand dollars, or 60% of net revenues
for animal control licenses and animal permit fees in FY08.

                            Gasoline Tax Fund 282

Revenues for the Gasoline Road Tax Fund 282 are projected at $4.87 million.
Gasoline tax revenues from the state are expected to come in at the budgeted
level of $4.833 million, an increase of $276 thousand over the FY/07 budgeted
revenues of $4.557 million. The Transfer from the General Fund is estimated at
$37 thousand. Unaudited revenues in FY/07 were $498 thousand more than
anticipated and contributed to the reduction of the transfer from the General Fund
of $385 thousand in FY/08.

                     False Alarm Enforcement Fund 287

Revenues for Alarm Ordinance Fees are expected to come in at the budgeted
level of $667 thousand. Interest earnings are expected at $9 thousand above the
budgeted level of $18 thousand.
                        Photo Enforcement Fund 288

There are no revenues recorded in this fund as of first quarter. All revenues are
currently in the General Fund and will be moved during the second quarter. Year
to date revenues earned for photo enforcement are $3,035,000.

                        City/County Building Fund 290

The total projected revenue for FY/08 is expected to come in at the budgeted
level of $3.759 million. A source of revenue for this fund is the rental of City
property from the County of Bernalillo.

                       Plaza Del Sol Building Fund 292

Projected revenues are estimated at the approved budget level of $1.410 million,
an increase of $161 thousand over the budgeted FY/07 amount of $1.249 million.
This revenue is derived through a transfer from the General Fund.

                         Aviation Operating Fund 611

First quarter revenue projections for aviation operations are expected to come in
at the FY/08 budget level of $69.5 million. Interest earnings are expected at
$906 thousand or $406 thousand above the budgeted level of $500 thousand.

                               Parking Fund 641

Revenue in Parking Fund 641 is budgeted at $4.104 million for FY/08. Facilities
revenue is estimated at $2.657 million and projected to come in at that amount.
The FY/08 estimated revenue of $2.657 million is $87 thousand more than the
budgeted FY/07 amount of $2.570 million. Meter collections are budgeted at
$739 thousand, an increase of $22 thousand over FY/07 and are projected at the
budgeted level. Parking fines are budgeted at $631 thousand, an increase of
$134 thousand over FY/07 estimated revenues, and are projected to be $631
thousand. Leased property and other miscellaneous revenues are projected at
the budgeted level of $77 thousand.

                Solid Waste Management Operating Fund 651

Residential collections, Commercial collections, Landfill fees and Recycling are
estimated to come in above FY/08 budget at $116 thousand, $531 thousand,
$190 thousand and $92 thousand, respectively. Miscellaneous revenue is
estimated to be $979 thousand over budget mainly due to the fuel surcharge
which began in FY/06.
                         Transit Operating Fund 661

Transit FY/08 revenues are projected to come in at $39.6 million, $300 thousand
above the budgeted level of $39.3 million. The increase is attributable to an
agreement with MRCOG for additional route service. While actual fare revenue is
weak during the 1st quarter, the full impact of the Rapid Ride Bus System and
increased demand for public transportation in general may correct this as the
year progresses. Advertising revenues also appear strong during the 1st quarter,
and may lead to substantially higher revenues as the year progresses.

                           Golf Operating Fund 681

At the close of first quarter green fees continue to struggle. Year to date green
fees are 1.31% above the same period for FY/07. Contributing to this slow
growth is September, which was a surprisingly low generating revenue month
considering decent weather. Green fees are anticipated to fall short of the
budgeted amount of $3,974 million by $459 thousand. City Council approved a
rate increase that will go into effect January 1, 2008. This increase should help
alleviate the forecasted shortfall. Concessions are projected at the budget level
of $438 thousand.

                    Baseball Stadium Operating Fund 691

Revenues for FY/08 are budgeted at $1.729 million. Revenue sources for the
Stadium Fund are lease revenues budgeted at $706 thousand, surcharge
revenues budgeted at $1.0 million and other revenues budgeted at $23
thousand. Estimated revenues for FY/08 are projected to be at the budgeted
amount of $1.72 million.

                         Risk Management Fund 705

Revenues for the risk assessment are anticipated at the budgeted level of $36.2
million. Interest earnings are $1 million above the FY/08 budgeted level of $2
million. This occurs due to higher interest rates and fund balances than

                 Supplies Inventory Management Fund 715

Interest earnings and miscellaneous revenues are projected to be $29 thousand
above the budgeted level of $96 thousand. Warehouse services are anticipated
to come in at the FY/08 budgeted level of $793 thousand.
                         Fleet Management Fund 725

The anticipated revenue for Fleet Management Services is anticipated to come in
at the FY/08 budgeted level of $13.4 million. Interest earnings are anticipated to
be $76 thousand over the budgeted level of $50 thousand.

                        Employee Insurance Fund 735

Anticipated revenues for the Employee Insurance fund are above the budgeted
level of $46.6 million by $692 thousand. Insurance premiums are expected to
come in at $106 thousand above the budgeted level with interest earnings and
miscellaneous revenue expected to exceed the budgeted level by $253
thousand. Higher interest rates and fund balances have contributed to the
increase in interest.

                   Communications Management Fund 745

Pay telephone royalties of $4 thousand and interest earnings of $58 thousand
above the budgeted level account for the $62 thousand increase in anticipated
revenues. Radio maintenance charges of $869 thousand and telephone
administrative charges of $315 thousand are expected to come in at budget.

                   Open Space Expendable Trust Fund 851

The FY/08 revenue budget for open space park fees and interest is $90
thousand. At the close of first quarter park fees are anticipated to reach the
budgeted amount of $75 thousand and interest has already reached the budget
of $15 thousand and it is anticipated that it will only grow.

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