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Top Ten 2010 Year of the Tiger Chinese stock market predictions
[Source: Network Capital Securities - Securities Daily Hits:
      Tiger Ten predicted China's stock market
      □ Study Group Securities Daily Ten predictions
      In 2009, China's capital market actively and properly deal with the
international financial crisis, contrarian and push reform measures, regulatory and
development of a degree of balance, the overall smooth operation of the market. Hot
spots in terms of market changes, ups and downs of the rhythm of view or from the
broader market, than people have expected the Department.
      Recalling the "2009 Top Ten China's stock market
predictions," we have been gratifying come true rate (see Securities Daily,
November 28, 2009 "inventory of the stock market in 2009, this newspaper
predicted ten successive authentication"), but also to We bring a lot of
pressure. Many researchers believe that the 2010 capital markets face more
uncertainty, forecast even greater challenge. However, the prediction itself is looking
through the uncertainty of uncertainty, uncertainty judged by uncertainty. We firmly
believe that some of China's stock market in 2010 given the matter can still
punctuate the.
      The study group co-ordinating internal and external forces editorial,
comprehensive study in 2009 have emerged signs of the factors and we can now
foresee, will in 2010 chronology showed amazing new factors, China's
capital market in 2010 made the following pre-sentence:
      1, is expected to smooth launch of stock index futures, the market reaction
showed complexity.
      China's stock market has long been shown to be remarkably unilateral
City features one of the important institutional reasons for the lack of short stock
index futures such tools. In 2009, the successful implementation of the IPO system,
successfully launched the Growth Enterprise Market, the deletion of this system is
expected to be filled.
      Early September 2009, China Securities Regulatory Commission, said Jiang
Yang, assistant chairman, "the Commission actively and steadily
developing the commodity futures market, will actively introduce financial
futures"; in December, China Securities Regulatory Commission chairman
Shang Fulin said it will clear stock index futures as soon as possible. The statement
indicates that management is how to squeeze the conditions and timing of
introduction of stock index futures have been extremely confident. We expect the first
half of 2010, stock index futures more likely.
      Back in September 2006, specifically set up for the launch of stock index futures
on the China Financial Futures Exchange was set up. But then, stock index futures
preparations twists and turns, so far there is only simulated trading. 2008, both the
sudden international financial crisis has brought pressure to China's
financial system, but also strengthen China's financial system,
self-confidence. Industry generally agree that the introduction of stock index futures,
the time is ripe.
      However, we believe that, although the functions of stock index futures is to find
their own prices, diversify risk, but in China's national conditions, its
functions have implications for help or may be amplified. Introduction of stock index
futures are expected before and after the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market may
have been shock; the concept of speculative stocks may perform several rounds.
Should pay adequate attention during the speculation risk.
      2, Restricted Shares may be innovative market model.
      Approved by the State Council, since January 1, 2010 onwards, listed companies
on the individual purchase limit of the income derived by selling shares of 20% of
personal income tax rate. This policy will be limited to selling personal holdings of
cash due to play a significant inhibition of impulse.
      On the other hand, whether corporate or individual Restricted Shareholders, in
the case of tax policy changes, Strong Tendency to avoid taxation of motivation. Their
choice and financial institutions, intermediary institutions, innovation greatly
increased the possibility of the operation. Could be expected to take stake in mortgage
financing, and possibly through a trust product innovation, innovation in the
realization of bank credit equity value, activate, and risk management requirements.
      In fact, the introduction of the new policy, more and more people are also fully
aware,        "Circulating        Shares"        is      "all
negotiable," rather than "the whole transaction."
      Because the limit of the Selling Shareholders in considerable part or even most
of the shareholders will choose a long-term holding of shares, not sell. This is the
nature of industrial capital and the demands of corporate control their own decisions.
Limit for the sale of some shares in circulation, risk management and cash
replacement and other needs, much room for market innovation.
      Third, the scale of 2010, bank credit will add more than 8 trillion yuan.
      Central government has made clear in 2010 to implement a proactive fiscal
policy and a moderately easy monetary policy. Grasp of policy issues for the high
level in August last year, once noted that "reasonable and sufficient to
maintain market liquidity, focusing on structural adjustment credit, improve credit
quality and efficiency, strengthening of agriculture, small and medium enterprises
weak support for efforts to enhance the credit of the support balanced economic and
social development and sustainability. " In our analysis, it can serve as a
day in 2009 the amount of credit questioned by the more comprehensive and scientific
response.
      China's economic development on the current characteristics of the
term "awash with liquidity" is a "worry",
but "the lack of liquidity" is a "big worry."
Liquidity of the currency issue is not only a simple mathematical problem, but also
closely linked with foreign exchange system reform, not just look at numbers.
Therefore, we expect, even if the scale of new credit in 2010 based on 2009, have
contracted, should not be less than 8 trillion yuan.
      Against the structural excess liquidity from the means of view, can take up the
reserve ratio, money withdrawn from circulation through open market, tightening of
bank credit and other measures, when necessary, adjust the benchmark interest rate.
Overall, however, to shrink the nature of monetary policy, should be particularly
cautious attitude.
      4, 2010, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets will be reflected in market
volatility. Shanghai Composite Index is expected to lower point in 2500 about the
upper limit in 4100 or thereabouts.
      From the end of the third quarter of 2009, since the Shanghai and Shenzhen
stock markets are in positive pressure support bad a state of relative equilibrium. This
trend will continue through at least the first half of 2010.
      Bullish factor is the positive trend of China's economic stability
compared to the established policy will continue to stimulate the domestic economy.
Negative factor is the expansion pressures, the size of credit may be reduced.
      At the same time, we expect, in 2010, for economic stimulus policy shift, the
listed bank refinancing a larger scale, the suppression of listed real estate companies,
international economic and financial market turbulence and other topics of
speculation may Suishi warming or even distorted, which will directly impact on
investor psychology.
      With the Jan. 1 start of the individual purchase limit of listed companies from
selling shares acquired by personal income tax rate of 20%, community pressure for
6.5 trillion speculation lifted shares may be cooling, but followed by a related policy
of speculation, the impact of investor psychology geometry, but also need to continue
to observe.
      In view of this, we are generally optimistic about the 2010 tape market, but at the
same time, the hot topic due to media hype related to fluctuations due to investor
psychology should pay full attention, have the potential segment declined
significantly vigilant. Stock market volatility in 2010 is inevitable. Shanghai
Composite Index is expected to be 2500 points to 4100 points and a line running line.
Stage may be at least three times high. If the market mentality and stability, do not
rule out the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 4500 points and a line.
      5, GEM listed companies will exceed 300, delisting the company will be the first
appearance.
      Accelerate the expansion of GEM's scale, should be the construction
of the capital market in 2010 one of the important tasks. The end of 2010 the number
of listed companies will be expanded to about 300, can be used as a basic goal.
      At the same time, the company has lost market conditions, should start the
delisting procedure. Considering China's stock market, under certain
circumstances will enlarge speculative, mechanism by delisting warning of risks and
strengthen investor education is very important.
      2010, the first GEM possible delisting the company.
      6, the overall listing of state-owned holding company will be an important theme
of speculation.
      2010 state-owned holding company's core operating assets or the
overall access to capital markets will accelerate the pace of state-owned asset
securitization will further enhance the speed and rate. To promote the advantages of
resources to focus on blue chip companies, has become very clear SASAC objectives.
In 2009, state-owned holding companies in relation to asset restructuring, mergers and
acquisitions-related issues, the SASAC has increased the voice, such as the
procedures required to enhance information disclosure and standardization. 2010 will
involve the overall listing of state-owned holding company, the new measures.
     State-owned holding company's core operating assets into the listed
company or listed as a whole, will lead to money market funds focused on
participation, the value will trigger a new round of investment boom. Mining,
automobiles, ports, infrastructure and other sectors will be hot.
     Seven key macro-control changes, the annual CPI expected to rise by around 3.5.
     In 2009, a series of stimulating domestic demand and stimulate economic growth
policies and measures with the support of more than 8% annual GDP growth is no
longer suspense. We expect 2010 GDP growth will remain above 8%, could reach 9%
or more.
     With the steady rise of the economy, inflation pressure is gradually gaining
ground, but we believe that inflation will soon appear moderate and controllable.
Some experts think that in 2010 the inflation rate is much floating in space, if the
agricultural and housing-related consumer prices rose too high a number, then the CPI
would have increased more than 4%.
     We believe that, in reality, there is upward pressure on price inflation and the
government the means to co-exist. When necessary, the Government will take
macro-control measures to check inflation from rising too fast; and according to past
experience, the government anti-inflationary measures are often very effective.
Therefore, we do not believe that the year 2010, more than 3.5% CPI.
     8, the Agricultural Bank is expected to speed up the listing process.
     Agricultural Bank of China has said recently, when conditions permit, to issue
new shares and listing.
     January 16, 2009, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. listing, the Agricultural Bank
of China Bank executives said the completion of technical preparations for the listing
of at least one year. December 9, 2009, Xiang Junbo, chairman, said "the
current listing of related ABC basically completed preparations, prepared from a
technical perspective, the indicators have reached the market conditions. However, the
ABC has not yet listed a clear timetable. " He also said that when
conditions are ripe, the Agricultural Bank of China will choose the capital market
when the market is stable.
     Agricultural Bank in 2010 will accelerate the process of listing. If the conditions
are met, the Agricultural Bank in 2010 may be the best time window listing.
     9, B-share market is expected to solve the problem.
     China B share market in an embarrassing situation in 2010 is expected to be
resolved. B-share market in the current financing, expansion, liquidity, and so are
largely in abeyance. With the multi-level capital market to accelerate significantly the
process of building, its been A-share market "merger by
absorption" has become inevitable. We expect in 2010 is expected to solve
the problem.
      10, international factors impact on the A-share market by the
"peak" fall.
      In November 2009, the Greece, Eastern Europe, Dubai, the impact of the debt
crisis of people's eardrums constantly talk. Some experts think that this is a
prelude to the global debt crisis and the impact of China's stock market.
And the echoes of that part of the experts believe that the 2010 Anglo-American and
other countries will opt out of economic stimulus, then China will be affected, must
follow the macro-policy adjustment in these economies.
      However, we believe that, despite the depth of China's reform and
opening up are significantly enhanced the growing internationalization of the market,
but international factors for the A-share market's influence will be phased
retreat, rather than further expansion of public opinion as rendered.
      In 2010, China's economic policy based on international factors into
account, will continue to maintain the relative independence. Although from the
perspective of inhibition of excessive inflation, monetary policy makers might take
some suppression measures, but in essence, this is not the same thing out of economic
stimulus. China's economic policy will be adjusted based primarily on their
own development, not too much to follow the policies of other major economies.
      Specific to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, by international factors
will be the "peak" gradually come down. China's
stock market trend will continue in 2010 mainly by the domestic economic situation,
the impact of the decision by the contradiction between supply and demand in the
stock market itself.
      (Author of: Dong Shaopeng)

				
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posted:8/16/2010
language:English
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