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Greenspan: Shadow of an era

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					Greenspan: Shadow of an era
?Greenspan tried to define him and his autobiography, age and learn the best way to
his wisdom, is a deconstruction of his decision-making
Man, "Global Entrepreneur" press relations Kam
Greenspan is perhaps the "American Century" of the last iconic
figure. Are, therefore, when he published his autobiography "The Age of
Turbulence," the enthusiasm of the people in this book far beyond an
economic policy decision-makers curiosity. Indeed, the play down decision-making
process, only from the results of their formulation of economic policy point of view,
Greenspan's story is like many 20th-century American giant is going
through can be summed up as an exciting process of making history.
This is a Manhattan children's love of music in several decades of time to
conquer Wall Street, the story is a charge of the world's largest economy
were beyond the rotation of the ruling party to overcome the financial crisis, the
defeat of inflation and the final story for prosperity. This legend seems to be occurred
in the Morgan and Rockefeller era, but Greenspan living in reality. This allows us to
see not only the story of the place, but also a chance to see it ended.
In almost a generation, the Greenspan Federal Reserve Chairman's position
to play the U.S. "economic president" and the global capital
markets lender of last resort role. After his fourth U.S. President - Pan Zhuzheng
Greenspan Fed for 18 years, only this time has been recorded: highly respected former
Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker did in this position for 8 years, and its
predecessor, William Miller, completed only 17 months.
As a conservative, Greenspan the Republican presidential nomination as Fed
chairman, but adhere to the Fed's independence, refused to meet its
economic policy, but with a Democratic president to maintain the best cooperation.
He has the face of the 1987 Black Monday stock market, the 1994 Mexican financial
crisis, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, long-term capital funds in 1998 and 2001, the
crisis of confidence after the terrorist attacks on the crisis, through decisive action and
a flexible currency policies, he avoids the crisis evolved into the U.S. economic
disaster. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's 18 years as the U.S.
economy an average annual rate of 3%, creating the longest post-war economic boom,
but most of the year inflation was controlled at 3%. Finally do not forget that in this
decade, occurred in the Cold War, globalization, new technological revolution will
affect the least change in the next few centuries, people still do not understand all the
significance of these changes, and in this historic juncture of change, Greenspan
maintained the stability of the U.S. economy.
Even, if possible, the president and all the people concerned about economic and hope
he will always live on: Fortune magazine predicted, "cloning"
of progress, the cloning of sheep as a first step to cloning Britney Spears as the first
two-step, to copy the achievements of Alan Greenspan as the final. Another joke is
that the media predicted the future of the Tenth U.S. president names are: Clinton,
Bush, Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush cymbals only work they have done is to have as
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.
However, in the Connecticut Avenue in Washington, the new office, the former
Federal Reserve Chairman said, times are different, "now the period of
time than I have any difficulties in the many." Former economic helmsman
start trying to play the role of prophets and wise men. It is widely considered one of
Greenspan's genius is that the two could be shocked with the model of
"the Federal Reserve-style" language about the market, and now
Greenspan directly express their views clearly. He believes that the role of global
deflation will soon start declining, and now have to concern about the resurgence of
inflation.
When the signs began to show that this was the current subprime crisis sweeping the
globe Greenspan at least partly attributed to improper disposal in office, Greenspan
defended himself: the outbreak of the crisis is inevitable, because they and the
pre-crisis price bubble is rooted in human nature, and their excitement turned to fear
from the tendency.
In a sense, Greenspan will become his new book and his admirers, critics, stage
combat, into each other's grab, Greenspan defined the right to use the
words him and his era, while others by Greenspan's wisdom on the
deconstruction, to reflect on the face of uncertainty about the future, the possible
response strategy.
Betray
It must be remembered, Greenspan is our time, the logical behavior of a few
characters with complex, on the one hand, he appears to be an outright opportunist, in
the major decision-making juncture Buzhiyici betrayed their faith, but in his long as
the Fed chairman years, despite going through the change of political parties and the
Cold War, globalization, major changes in the new technological revolution, has
always maintained a consistent policy of the Federal Reserve. In the
"turbulent times" of the title page, the Greenspan book
dedicated to his spiritual mentor Ayn Rand, Greenspan may be in order, said he is still
a firm believer in liberal economic thought.
In 1952, Greenspan is still pursuing a doctoral degree for the failure of the first upset
of marriage, but this will be at the helm of the U.S. economy people, the product of a
marriage is clearly more meaningful description of the ex-wife , he met exiled
novelist Rand. Rand is a fanatical advocate of liberalism and individualism, so that
President John F. Kennedy will be called a fascist, as John F. Kennedy proclaimed
"Ask not what your country can do for you, but ask what you can for your
country what to do, "appears in the Rand, which will push the peak of
altruism and unforgivable, she thinks everyone is the pursuit of personal interests to
maximize the ultimate driving force of social progress.
Before that, Greenspan was already a believer in liberal economic theory, but the
understanding of liberalism can only stay in the free market level of the most efficient
allocation of resources, understanding of Rand, the Greenspan "not only
that the free market is in line with efficient, but also moral. "
Greenspan's liberal economic thinking this development to the extreme, he
not only opposed to any form of government intervention in the economy, even
against the most free market advocates have also endorsed the anti-monopoly law, as
Greenspan is itself a free market monopoly product. Greenspan was an economic
conservative, to promote a kind of "economic fundamentalism"
- less government spending, a balanced budget, a stable monetary policy, inflation. He
also opposes the Government's welfare system, claiming that this is only
the government confiscated the wealth of the way members of society.
The attitude of the social welfare system is the fundamental differences between
Republicans and Democrats, one Republican Greenspan was President Ronald
Reagan when he was the trust in August 1987, Reagan served as Federal Reserve
Chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan did not reciprocate, the new President has
made the start against government intervention to maintain the independence of the
Fed's stance. Took only 24 days, Alan Greenspan raised the federal interest
rate by 0.5 percentage points, this inhibition by the fiscal and trade deficits could
trigger inflation, interest rates, but the economic slowdown and rising unemployment
has forced the nomination of his Republican Party lost votes. But three months later,
when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan faces first major test of his tenure,
his approach to all by surprise. October 19, 1987, five years has been in a bull market,
the continuing rise in the Dow Jones index slumped 508 points, a quarter of the U.S.
stock market capitalization, more than 500 billion U.S. dollars lost, and look totally
stock 1929 Wall Street repeat of the market collapse.
This is a difficult time, Greenspan must make a decision. He can do nothing, in
accordance with the philosophy of free markets, allow the stock market bubble burst,
capital market regulation by the market's own imbalances, but also
remember that Alan Greenspan, the stock market crash of 1929, precisely because the
President's economic adviser abide by Hoover liberal doctrine, refused to
lend a helping hand to the market, stock market crash was triggered a chain reaction
of financial markets, and eventually evolved into the global economic crisis continued
for four years and 30 years throughout the 20th century world of the Great
Depression.
That night, Greenspan only slept 5 hours the next day 40 minutes before opening the
New York Stock Exchange, he made a brief statement, "Federal Reserve
Board, in line with its responsibility as the country's central bank, will all
economic and financial system to provide assistance. " Business week
evaluation of Alan Greenspan to the market turned on the monetary taps, at a critical
juncture in the financial institutions have been saved.
Greenspan betrayed his own achievements at the same time, this day, his
decision-making in the U.S. economy have kept their promises to become the
world's economic center of the "economic president."
Over the next 18 years, this has been Greenspan's action logic, whenever
market fluctuations the overall stability of U.S. economy crisis, he decisively as had
that "visible hand" and take the initiative to save those who play
the role of the market .
Inflation
The Myth of Greenspan, the most famous is his use of a flexible interest rate policy,
has created the longest history of American post-war economic boom, which is the
core of its policies as vigilant and guard against inflation emerged as the devil omen.
As the former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan is not significant academic
achievements, not even to get a doctorate in economics. A large extent, his policy is
the practice of teacher 亚瑟伯恩斯 economic theory. Burns is the most important of
the theorists of economic cycle theory that economic development is the alternating
cycle of expansion and contraction, like a river, both rushing rapids, the river is also
calm, while the economic policy-makers on a similar pilot need to recognize danger
signals ahead of time, the vessel in danger to take measures in advance.
This is the basis of economic decision-making Greenspan, signs of overheating in the
economy when the light step on the brakes, but there are signs of recession in the
relaxation time of the accelerator, ironing the economic cycle, to prevent a major
economic fluctuations, maximize economic growth time. The premise is to master the
large amount of economic data, from the smallest details of the observed changes in
the economic field, Greenspan did this, his friends described as
"Greenspan knows the Chevrolet factory in 1964 with the number of cars
on flat head bolt, he pulled three of them will know what impact the national economy.
"
Greenspan on the economic operation of the accelerator and brake adjusting key
interest rates, he was almost through changes in interest rates to fine-tune the
economy to an extreme, 1992-1995, in the U.S. economy is a good case to Greenspan
rainy day, 7 times increase in the federal interest rates, the economy is slowing. The
1998 Asian financial crisis spread to the world, Greenspan again cut interest rates
three times in 10 weeks, creating the fastest in U.S. history to cut interest rates speed,
stability and the economy. Similarly, the Internet bubble burst in 2001, after the
terrorist attacks on the United States, Greenspan in just one year interest rates from
6.5% to 1.75%, to stimulate economic growth. Those pessimists who believe that the
terrorist attacks, the U.S. economy will inevitably negative growth, but that year the
U.S. economy grew by 3.5%.
In fact, this is unheard of miracle for all, Greenspan served as Fed chairman for 18
years, U.S. economic growth, interrupted only by two small-scale recession
interrupted from 1987 to 1998, is creating 90 consecutive months of post-war
economic growth record and, more importantly, although the unemployment rate has
been as low as 5.5%, inflation continues to be controlled at 3%, by traditional
economic theory holds that low unemployment rate and could not get both
surprisingly low inflation at the same time, the U.S. emerged in the so-called
"zero-inflation economy."
This is the source of all myths, even Greenspan can not be completely attributed to
him, and he must therefore look for explanations. In 1998, after 10 years as Fed
chairman, the industrial economy era conservatives became advocates of the new
economy. He believes, the U.S. economic cycle is very different changes in the
occurrence and Yi Wang, U.S. companies invest in technology, the 使 much more
productive, promoting economic growth, while they will not lead to inflation,
high-tech new economy represented itself as the with an inflation genes. Meanwhile,
the U.S. financial markets have become more flexible and resilient, able to make
immediate response to economic changes, which partly replaced the traditional
functions of the Federal Reserve, the Fed simply play the role of arbitrator in a timely
manner to raise or lower interest rates, can normal operation of the market.
Greenspan rule these constitute the basic picture of prosperity, but our success will be
if the Clinton re-election and won for himself a place in history, then as the real
founder of this myth, why should not Mr. Greenspan as the greatest Federal Reserve
Chairman go down in history? But Greenspan did not complete at least the last one as
a great figure, each is considered to create an end of history, are subject to and praise
the same amount of criticism and doubt, then the Greenspan era skeptics What about
those who are sure to create the economic miracle of the elements - faith in free
markets, the Fed's independence, decisive response to crisis, inflation
vigilance, the intricacies of using monetary means, whether Greenspan's
unique personality and amazing technology, also merely some accidental factors?
Bank of England paper money has been used Merle dirge-like tone of praise that
person, "the great economist extremely rare, this person must have some
talent, mathematicians, historians, politicians and philosophy House, Alan Greenspan
is the embodiment of these gifts. "meritorious deeds attributed to a certain
individual personality is the lightest Province magic solution, but in fact, so successful
on Greenspan is still a mystery Nobel economics laureate Milton Friedman about the
outstanding performance of Alan Greenspan said, "I exclaimed, my
incredible, I am puzzled as to how they suddenly learned how to manage the
economy . is the Alan Greenspan of the impact of economic fluctuations and
insightful, while others do not? "
Or some more fundamental factors at play, which fully demonstrated by
Greenspan's own. Even in his new book, Greenspan also acknowledged
that market forces rather than his real hero is to create prosperity. Greenspan served as
Fed chairman for 18 years is an era: With the collapse of the Berlin Wall, followed by
unstoppable globalization and the new technological revolution, multinational
corporations can be globally integrated and re-allocation of resources, and using
technology progress and become stronger and more efficient. While the developing
countries because developed countries moved into the manufacturing sector, can
create a lot of cheap goods exported to inhibit inflation in developed countries, the
foreign exchange they earn a lot back to the capital markets of developed countries to
promote the stock market boom, and to interest rates remain at low levels. Rising
stock market wealth effect, boosting consumer confidence and to maintain the
prosperity of the market. More efficient business, cheaper goods, lower cost of capital
has created the prosperity of the Greenspan era.
Now, this virtuous circle may have entered the end times, the 2007 subprime crisis is
the first sign of change. The formation of excess capital asset price bubble, the asset
bubble could trigger global inflation, the crisis has been the first embodiment in the
real estate market, but when most people choose to leave the market, it means the end
of prosperity.
Greenspan's choice of a turbulent era as a mark, and create the elements of
this era continued to ferment, to Alan Greenspan as a better predictor of the future
world as a mirror of the prevailing circumstances, or do not intend to whom he
Greenspan's legacy will be the successor of the anatomical specimens.

				
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posted:8/13/2010
language:English
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