VIEWS: 14 PAGES: 6 POSTED ON: 8/13/2010
Greenspan: Shadow of an era ?Greenspan tried to define him and his autobiography, age and learn the best way to his wisdom, is a deconstruction of his decision-making Man, &quot;Global Entrepreneur&quot; press relations Kam Greenspan is perhaps the &quot;American Century&quot; of the last iconic figure. Are, therefore, when he published his autobiography &quot;The Age of Turbulence,&quot; the enthusiasm of the people in this book far beyond an economic policy decision-makers curiosity. Indeed, the play down decision-making process, only from the results of their formulation of economic policy point of view, Greenspan&#39;s story is like many 20th-century American giant is going through can be summed up as an exciting process of making history. This is a Manhattan children&#39;s love of music in several decades of time to conquer Wall Street, the story is a charge of the world&#39;s largest economy were beyond the rotation of the ruling party to overcome the financial crisis, the defeat of inflation and the final story for prosperity. This legend seems to be occurred in the Morgan and Rockefeller era, but Greenspan living in reality. This allows us to see not only the story of the place, but also a chance to see it ended. In almost a generation, the Greenspan Federal Reserve Chairman&#39;s position to play the U.S. &quot;economic president&quot; and the global capital markets lender of last resort role. After his fourth U.S. President - Pan Zhuzheng Greenspan Fed for 18 years, only this time has been recorded: highly respected former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker did in this position for 8 years, and its predecessor, William Miller, completed only 17 months. As a conservative, Greenspan the Republican presidential nomination as Fed chairman, but adhere to the Fed&#39;s independence, refused to meet its economic policy, but with a Democratic president to maintain the best cooperation. He has the face of the 1987 Black Monday stock market, the 1994 Mexican financial crisis, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, long-term capital funds in 1998 and 2001, the crisis of confidence after the terrorist attacks on the crisis, through decisive action and a flexible currency policies, he avoids the crisis evolved into the U.S. economic disaster. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan&#39;s 18 years as the U.S. economy an average annual rate of 3%, creating the longest post-war economic boom, but most of the year inflation was controlled at 3%. Finally do not forget that in this decade, occurred in the Cold War, globalization, new technological revolution will affect the least change in the next few centuries, people still do not understand all the significance of these changes, and in this historic juncture of change, Greenspan maintained the stability of the U.S. economy. Even, if possible, the president and all the people concerned about economic and hope he will always live on: Fortune magazine predicted, &quot;cloning&quot; of progress, the cloning of sheep as a first step to cloning Britney Spears as the first two-step, to copy the achievements of Alan Greenspan as the final. Another joke is that the media predicted the future of the Tenth U.S. president names are: Clinton, Bush, Bush, Clinton, Clinton, Bush cymbals only work they have done is to have as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. However, in the Connecticut Avenue in Washington, the new office, the former Federal Reserve Chairman said, times are different, &quot;now the period of time than I have any difficulties in the many.&quot; Former economic helmsman start trying to play the role of prophets and wise men. It is widely considered one of Greenspan&#39;s genius is that the two could be shocked with the model of &quot;the Federal Reserve-style&quot; language about the market, and now Greenspan directly express their views clearly. He believes that the role of global deflation will soon start declining, and now have to concern about the resurgence of inflation. When the signs began to show that this was the current subprime crisis sweeping the globe Greenspan at least partly attributed to improper disposal in office, Greenspan defended himself: the outbreak of the crisis is inevitable, because they and the pre-crisis price bubble is rooted in human nature, and their excitement turned to fear from the tendency. In a sense, Greenspan will become his new book and his admirers, critics, stage combat, into each other&#39;s grab, Greenspan defined the right to use the words him and his era, while others by Greenspan&#39;s wisdom on the deconstruction, to reflect on the face of uncertainty about the future, the possible response strategy. Betray It must be remembered, Greenspan is our time, the logical behavior of a few characters with complex, on the one hand, he appears to be an outright opportunist, in the major decision-making juncture Buzhiyici betrayed their faith, but in his long as the Fed chairman years, despite going through the change of political parties and the Cold War, globalization, major changes in the new technological revolution, has always maintained a consistent policy of the Federal Reserve. In the &quot;turbulent times&quot; of the title page, the Greenspan book dedicated to his spiritual mentor Ayn Rand, Greenspan may be in order, said he is still a firm believer in liberal economic thought. In 1952, Greenspan is still pursuing a doctoral degree for the failure of the first upset of marriage, but this will be at the helm of the U.S. economy people, the product of a marriage is clearly more meaningful description of the ex-wife , he met exiled novelist Rand. Rand is a fanatical advocate of liberalism and individualism, so that President John F. Kennedy will be called a fascist, as John F. Kennedy proclaimed &quot;Ask not what your country can do for you, but ask what you can for your country what to do, &quot;appears in the Rand, which will push the peak of altruism and unforgivable, she thinks everyone is the pursuit of personal interests to maximize the ultimate driving force of social progress. Before that, Greenspan was already a believer in liberal economic theory, but the understanding of liberalism can only stay in the free market level of the most efficient allocation of resources, understanding of Rand, the Greenspan &quot;not only that the free market is in line with efficient, but also moral. &quot; Greenspan&#39;s liberal economic thinking this development to the extreme, he not only opposed to any form of government intervention in the economy, even against the most free market advocates have also endorsed the anti-monopoly law, as Greenspan is itself a free market monopoly product. Greenspan was an economic conservative, to promote a kind of &quot;economic fundamentalism&quot; - less government spending, a balanced budget, a stable monetary policy, inflation. He also opposes the Government&#39;s welfare system, claiming that this is only the government confiscated the wealth of the way members of society. The attitude of the social welfare system is the fundamental differences between Republicans and Democrats, one Republican Greenspan was President Ronald Reagan when he was the trust in August 1987, Reagan served as Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan did not reciprocate, the new President has made the start against government intervention to maintain the independence of the Fed&#39;s stance. Took only 24 days, Alan Greenspan raised the federal interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, this inhibition by the fiscal and trade deficits could trigger inflation, interest rates, but the economic slowdown and rising unemployment has forced the nomination of his Republican Party lost votes. But three months later, when Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan faces first major test of his tenure, his approach to all by surprise. October 19, 1987, five years has been in a bull market, the continuing rise in the Dow Jones index slumped 508 points, a quarter of the U.S. stock market capitalization, more than 500 billion U.S. dollars lost, and look totally stock 1929 Wall Street repeat of the market collapse. This is a difficult time, Greenspan must make a decision. He can do nothing, in accordance with the philosophy of free markets, allow the stock market bubble burst, capital market regulation by the market&#39;s own imbalances, but also remember that Alan Greenspan, the stock market crash of 1929, precisely because the President&#39;s economic adviser abide by Hoover liberal doctrine, refused to lend a helping hand to the market, stock market crash was triggered a chain reaction of financial markets, and eventually evolved into the global economic crisis continued for four years and 30 years throughout the 20th century world of the Great Depression. That night, Greenspan only slept 5 hours the next day 40 minutes before opening the New York Stock Exchange, he made a brief statement, &quot;Federal Reserve Board, in line with its responsibility as the country&#39;s central bank, will all economic and financial system to provide assistance. &quot; Business week evaluation of Alan Greenspan to the market turned on the monetary taps, at a critical juncture in the financial institutions have been saved. Greenspan betrayed his own achievements at the same time, this day, his decision-making in the U.S. economy have kept their promises to become the world&#39;s economic center of the &quot;economic president.&quot; Over the next 18 years, this has been Greenspan&#39;s action logic, whenever market fluctuations the overall stability of U.S. economy crisis, he decisively as had that &quot;visible hand&quot; and take the initiative to save those who play the role of the market . Inflation The Myth of Greenspan, the most famous is his use of a flexible interest rate policy, has created the longest history of American post-war economic boom, which is the core of its policies as vigilant and guard against inflation emerged as the devil omen. As the former Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan is not significant academic achievements, not even to get a doctorate in economics. A large extent, his policy is the practice of teacher 亚瑟伯恩斯 economic theory. Burns is the most important of the theorists of economic cycle theory that economic development is the alternating cycle of expansion and contraction, like a river, both rushing rapids, the river is also calm, while the economic policy-makers on a similar pilot need to recognize danger signals ahead of time, the vessel in danger to take measures in advance. This is the basis of economic decision-making Greenspan, signs of overheating in the economy when the light step on the brakes, but there are signs of recession in the relaxation time of the accelerator, ironing the economic cycle, to prevent a major economic fluctuations, maximize economic growth time. The premise is to master the large amount of economic data, from the smallest details of the observed changes in the economic field, Greenspan did this, his friends described as &quot;Greenspan knows the Chevrolet factory in 1964 with the number of cars on flat head bolt, he pulled three of them will know what impact the national economy. &quot; Greenspan on the economic operation of the accelerator and brake adjusting key interest rates, he was almost through changes in interest rates to fine-tune the economy to an extreme, 1992-1995, in the U.S. economy is a good case to Greenspan rainy day, 7 times increase in the federal interest rates, the economy is slowing. The 1998 Asian financial crisis spread to the world, Greenspan again cut interest rates three times in 10 weeks, creating the fastest in U.S. history to cut interest rates speed, stability and the economy. Similarly, the Internet bubble burst in 2001, after the terrorist attacks on the United States, Greenspan in just one year interest rates from 6.5% to 1.75%, to stimulate economic growth. Those pessimists who believe that the terrorist attacks, the U.S. economy will inevitably negative growth, but that year the U.S. economy grew by 3.5%. In fact, this is unheard of miracle for all, Greenspan served as Fed chairman for 18 years, U.S. economic growth, interrupted only by two small-scale recession interrupted from 1987 to 1998, is creating 90 consecutive months of post-war economic growth record and, more importantly, although the unemployment rate has been as low as 5.5%, inflation continues to be controlled at 3%, by traditional economic theory holds that low unemployment rate and could not get both surprisingly low inflation at the same time, the U.S. emerged in the so-called &quot;zero-inflation economy.&quot; This is the source of all myths, even Greenspan can not be completely attributed to him, and he must therefore look for explanations. In 1998, after 10 years as Fed chairman, the industrial economy era conservatives became advocates of the new economy. He believes, the U.S. economic cycle is very different changes in the occurrence and Yi Wang, U.S. companies invest in technology, the 使 much more productive, promoting economic growth, while they will not lead to inflation, high-tech new economy represented itself as the with an inflation genes. Meanwhile, the U.S. financial markets have become more flexible and resilient, able to make immediate response to economic changes, which partly replaced the traditional functions of the Federal Reserve, the Fed simply play the role of arbitrator in a timely manner to raise or lower interest rates, can normal operation of the market. Greenspan rule these constitute the basic picture of prosperity, but our success will be if the Clinton re-election and won for himself a place in history, then as the real founder of this myth, why should not Mr. Greenspan as the greatest Federal Reserve Chairman go down in history? But Greenspan did not complete at least the last one as a great figure, each is considered to create an end of history, are subject to and praise the same amount of criticism and doubt, then the Greenspan era skeptics What about those who are sure to create the economic miracle of the elements - faith in free markets, the Fed&#39;s independence, decisive response to crisis, inflation vigilance, the intricacies of using monetary means, whether Greenspan&#39;s unique personality and amazing technology, also merely some accidental factors? Bank of England paper money has been used Merle dirge-like tone of praise that person, &quot;the great economist extremely rare, this person must have some talent, mathematicians, historians, politicians and philosophy House, Alan Greenspan is the embodiment of these gifts. &quot;meritorious deeds attributed to a certain individual personality is the lightest Province magic solution, but in fact, so successful on Greenspan is still a mystery Nobel economics laureate Milton Friedman about the outstanding performance of Alan Greenspan said, &quot;I exclaimed, my incredible, I am puzzled as to how they suddenly learned how to manage the economy . is the Alan Greenspan of the impact of economic fluctuations and insightful, while others do not? &quot; Or some more fundamental factors at play, which fully demonstrated by Greenspan&#39;s own. Even in his new book, Greenspan also acknowledged that market forces rather than his real hero is to create prosperity. Greenspan served as Fed chairman for 18 years is an era: With the collapse of the Berlin Wall, followed by unstoppable globalization and the new technological revolution, multinational corporations can be globally integrated and re-allocation of resources, and using technology progress and become stronger and more efficient. While the developing countries because developed countries moved into the manufacturing sector, can create a lot of cheap goods exported to inhibit inflation in developed countries, the foreign exchange they earn a lot back to the capital markets of developed countries to promote the stock market boom, and to interest rates remain at low levels. Rising stock market wealth effect, boosting consumer confidence and to maintain the prosperity of the market. More efficient business, cheaper goods, lower cost of capital has created the prosperity of the Greenspan era. Now, this virtuous circle may have entered the end times, the 2007 subprime crisis is the first sign of change. The formation of excess capital asset price bubble, the asset bubble could trigger global inflation, the crisis has been the first embodiment in the real estate market, but when most people choose to leave the market, it means the end of prosperity. Greenspan&#39;s choice of a turbulent era as a mark, and create the elements of this era continued to ferment, to Alan Greenspan as a better predictor of the future world as a mirror of the prevailing circumstances, or do not intend to whom he Greenspan&#39;s legacy will be the successor of the anatomical specimens.
Pages to are hidden for
"Greenspan： Shadow of an era"Please download to view full document