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The recent white paper by Manpower Borderless Workforce 2008 brings out the great churn that is happening in international labour markets. Workers are migrating permanently or on a short term basis, within a company or changing companies, sometimes changing occupations in search of a more fruitful work profile and lifestyles. Companies in turn are hiring internationally – sometimes for employment in a single location and sometimes moving their employees across national borders. The world may not have become flat yet, but it is rapidly becoming borderless. India is a significant contributor to this phenomenon; it is exporting talent internationally in a big way and is considered to be a significant ‘threat’ internationally. India, of course, is not alone. But given its vast and rapidly increasing English speaking workforce India is emerging as a major supplier of international talent. This is all happening at a far more massive scale than ever in the past. When aggregate national economic growth is on an average 8 percent per annum, but is characterized by large regional variation, it is evident that relatively greater opportunities will act as a magnet for all those willing and able. And what is happening across national borders is also occurring across sub-national borders. IT professionals of Tamil descent form a large part of the Bangalore story, labour from Bihar is benefiting agriculture in Punjab, large numbers are moving from rural to urban areas in search of a better livelihood and lifestyles. The debate on international and domestic migration has attained significant importance on the national as well as international platform. Growing mobility of labour in a global economy, consequent population and demographic impacts , coupled with enhanced security concerns, have together underlined the importance of good migration management policies to transform it into an efficient, orderly and humane process. The question is no lon
India‘s Talent Migration Whitepaper Laveesh Bhandari and Payal Malik Version: November 2, 2008 Prepared for Manpower Inc. Research Team: Monica Jaitly Ramrao Mundhe Indicus Analytics 1 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................. 3 Scale and Scope of Migration.......................................................... 5 International Skilled Migration ..................................................... 5 International Low-skilled Migration ............................................ 12 India‘s internal migration ............................................................. 15 The Three Dangers ...................................................................... 18 Demographic Dividend and Talent Shortage ............................... 18 Rapid growth and Social Unrest ................................................. 22 International Slowdown ............................................................ 23 Gains from Migration ................................................................... 24 Remittances ............................................................................. 24 Brain Gain and Brain Circulation................................................. 25 Enabling Networks .................................................................... 25 Knowledge Diffusion ................................................................. 26 Costs of Migration........................................................................ 26 Brain Drain ............................................................................... 26 Loss of Investment in Human Capital ......................................... 27 Exploitation by Middlemen and Agents ....................................... 27 Access to Basic Services ............................................................ 27 Migration of laborers from Orissa to Surat .................................. 28 Government Action ...................................................................... 28 Employer Action .......................................................................... 31 Academia-Industry Partnerships ................................................ 31 In House Training ..................................................................... 32 2 List of Figures Figure1: Inflow of Indian Workers into Principal Destination Countries Figure 2: Occupational Profile of Indian Legal Permanent Residents in US Figure 3: Country wise Percent Share in Skill Visa Outcomes, Australia Figure 4: Share of India in Total H-1B Visa Approvals Figure 5: Country wise Percent Share in H-1B Visa Approvals Figure 6: Percent Share of Top Two Countries in UK Work Permit Issues Figure 7: Percent Share of Top Countries in UK Work Permit Issues Figure 8: Country wise percent Share in Temporary Skilled Visa Grants, Australia Figure 9: Annual Labour Outflows from India Figure 10: Annual Labour Outflows to Gulf Countries Figure 11: Occupational Profile of Indians in UAE, 2001 Figure 12: Growth of net migration of workers in selective states during 1991 to 2001 Figure 13: Distribution of interstate migrant workers (in millions) Figure 14: Population Pyramid 2026 Figure 15: Estimated number of individuals in 15-60 age group across general education level for 2025. 3 Introduction The recent white paper by Manpower Borderless Workforce 2008 brings out the great churn that is happening in international labour markets. Workers are migrating permanently or on a short term basis, within a company or changing companies, sometimes changing occupations in search of a more fruitful work profile and lifestyles. Companies in turn are hiring internationally – sometimes for employment in a single location and sometimes moving their employees across national borders. The world may not have become flat yet, but it is rapidly becoming borderless. India is a significant contributor to this phenomenon; it is exporting talent internationally in a big way and is considered to be a significant ‗threat‘ internationally. India, of course, is not alone. But given its vast and rapidly increasing English speaking workforce India is emerging as a major supplier of international talent. This is all happening at a far more massive scale than ever in the past. When aggregate national economic growth is on an average 8 percent per annum, but is characterized by large regional variation, it is evident that relatively greater opportunities will act as a magnet for all those willing and able. And what is happening across national borders is also occurring across sub-national borders. IT professionals of Tamil descent form a large part of the Bangalore story, labour from Bihar is benefiting agriculture in Punjab, large numbers are moving from rural to urban areas in search of a better livelihood and lifestyles. The debate on international and domestic migration has attained significant importance on the national as well as international platform. Growing mobility of labour in a global economy, consequent population and demographic impacts , coupled with enhanced security concerns, have together underlined the importance of good migration management policies to transform it into an efficient, orderly and humane process. The question is no longer restricted to whether migration should or should not be allowed, but has shifted to , how to manage migration effectively to enhance its positive effects on development and mitigate the negative (MOIA, Annual Report, 2007-08). Migration has enormous potential to contribute to development and alleviate poverty for a country like India, but the process needs to be understood better if we are to put in place policies that maximize gains from migration. What will be the consequences of large scale international migration from India? What will be the developmental consequences of migration of highly skilled workers from India? Being one of the main exporters of technical talent to the world economy, these concerns are important. 4 To address these issues it is important to have a better understanding of talent migration in India; both internal as well as international. This background paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the process of migration in India. This analysis is undertaken under three broad themes with Section 2 covering issues such as: What is the scale and scope of talent migration both (i) within India and (ii) between India and the world? Section 3, primarily covering the supply side issues, will describe the demographic dividend of India and provides a perspective to the same by discussing the employability constraints of the working population of India. In this context the following questions become important: (a) how to convert this demographic dividend into an employable dividend; (b) Whether and how short term training by hirers (with an international/domestic orientation) can improve the employment potential of the Indian workforce?; (c) Whether and how domestic skills shortages result in leading Indian companies seeking talent overseas? Finally, Section 4 of the paper briefly discusses the gains and costs of migration and follows that with a discussion of related policy issues. The background paper concludes by providing a policy recommendations focused on fully harnessing the gains and mitigating the costs in Section 5. Scale and Scope of Migration The willingness of all people to move from place of residence to another location is driven by economic and lifestyle aspirations. This is true internationally, as well as in India. But the core engine that powers migration is that for employment, and there are many different characteristics contained in this broad term. Manpower recognizes this (Manpower Borderless Workforce, 2008). There are different categories of workers, blue collar and white collar, with quite different aspirations and patterns of movement. There is another divide between skilled employees and the unskilled: skilled employees benefit from steady market demand for their services; unskilled workers continue to struggle to get a foothold on the economic ladder. There are two kinds of borders – national borders, of course, but also explicit and hidden within countries that affect the movement of people. International Skilled Migration It is estimated that less than a million people migrate out of the country in any given year. As per various government documents there are about five million Indian migrants working internationally, our own estimates are a bit higher at about six million. But Indian talent migration is creating a significant impact on both the host country as well as in India. Traditionally the major destinations for highly skilled Indian migrants have been the US, UK and Canada and that for unskilled, semi skilled and recently professionals have been the high-income countries in the Gulf mainly to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. 5 But this is changing rapidly. Destinations such as Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore are also attracting Indian professionals. In the past, it was the construction worker that characterized Indian talent movement to non-English speaking countries. Now countries in Europe and Japan are now also steadily becoming larger recipients of Indian skilled talent. In the Gulf as well, skilled talent in-migration is steadily becoming more important vis-à-vis the unskilled. In a very short span of time India has become the top two or three most important sources of talent in-migration in a range of developed countries including the USA, UK, Australia, Canada and of course the Gulf region. Figures 1-8 indicate an increasing long term trend in these countries. Figure1: Inflow of Indian Workers into Principal Destination Countries 60 Australia 50 Canada United Kingdom United States 40 30 20 10 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: OECD 6 Figure 2: Occupational Profile of Indian Legal Permanent Residents in US 60.00 50.00 40.00 31.20 49.28 43.19 40.41 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2001 2003 2004 2005 7.57 9.26 5.50 9.72 Professional, Speciality and Technical Farmer, Forestery and Fishing Others Executive, Administrative and Managerial Service Source Profile on Legal Permanent Residents, www.dhs.gov Figure 3: Country wise Percent Share in Skill Visa Outcomes, Australia 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1999-00 2000-01 2002-03 India 2003-04 UK 2004-05 China 2005-06 2006-07 South Africa Source: Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, Department of immigration and citizenship, Australia. 7 Figure 4: Share of India in Total H-1B Visa Approvals 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 Total India 2004 2005 Source: Sasikumar and Zakir Hussain (2006) Figure 5: Country wise Percent Share in H-1B Visa Approvals 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 India China Canada Philippines 2005 Korea Source: Sasikumar and Zakir Hussain, 2006 8 Figure 6: Percent Share of Top Two Countries in UK Work Permit Issues 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 India US Source: Sasikumar and Zakir Hussain, 2006 Figure 7: Percent Share of Top Countries in UK Work Permit Issues 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 India United States Australia Phillipines South Africa 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Sasikumar and Zakir Hussain, 2006 9 Figure 8: Country wise percent Share in Temporary Skilled Visa Grants, Australia 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1999-00 2000-01 2002-03 India UK 2003-04 USA SA 2004-05 2005-06 Source: Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, Department of immigration and citizenship, Australia. 10 None of this would have been possible without the active recognition of governments internationally of the important role that talent in-migration plays in their countries. Given the stagnating and ageing workforce in developed countries the need for sourcing talent from oversees is natural. Moreover, employers in developed countries need easy access to the ―best and brightest‖ from around the world to attain a competitive advantage in the international markets. For example, in the nineties the expansion of US H-1B program, that targets specialty occupations, was justified on these grounds. (Martin 2003). As per US immigration data nearly three-fourths of all of the systems analysts and programmers are from India. Across all recipients of new H-1B visas India was the leading country of origin comprising almost half of all of the new arrivals in FY 2005. Consequently, many governments have taken significant steps to increase the inflow of Indian skilled talent into their countries. There are similar programs in UK and Australia is the Highly Skilled Migrant Program (HSMP) and Skilled temporary resident program respectively. India leads in work permits issued to foreign nationals in UK, surpassing the USA from 2001 onwards. The majority of the work permits issued in the UK are acquired by IT and health professionals. Temporary business visas that are nominated by employers in Australia display a similar pattern. In the year 2005-06 India accounted for 10 percent of these visas. Here as well the top occupational groups included IT and IT related fields. But the IT sector is not the sole beneficiary of Indian skilled talent migration. In 2004, over 38,000 physicians of Indian origin accounted for one in every 20 doctors practicing medicine in the US. Another 12,000 Indians and Indian-Americans are medical students and residents - doctors in specialty training - in teaching hospitals across the country. And Indians made up roughly 20 percent of the "International Medical Graduates" - or foreign-trained doctors - operating in the U.S.1 India is also the country of origin of 27,809 of the 68,836 registered doctors in UK who earned their medical qualification outside the European Union (GMC, UK 2008). Not just doctors, India is the second biggest exporter of nurses to the UK, after the Philippines.2 The impact of Indian talent in-migration is not limited to English speaking developed countries. Significant numbers of Indian professionals are now heading towards new and emerging destinations in Continental Europe and East Asia. Germany for instance introduced the Green Card Scheme in 2000 to attract IT specialists. It is estimated that 1 2 http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=3340 Mixed feelings among Indian doctors as NHS turns 60, Deccan herald, July 6, 2008 11 more than 60 per cent of those who have been admitted under Green Card Scheme are Indians. Also nearly 10 per cent of the total IT engineers admitted to Japan during 2003 were Indians (Sasikumar & Zakir Hussain, 2006). This is only the beginning of a long term trend. The demographics indicate an ever ageing and stagnating workforce in developed countries, the need to supplement domestic talent with that from other countries will only grow. The developed countries are feeling this talent shortage for the past few years. But this will impact all the rapidly growing countries of the world in coming years. South-east and east Asian countries‘ fertility rates have been falling consistently for many years and their age structure is no longer pyramidical. Indian talent has so far not made a great dent in non-English speaking countries, but in those countries as well there is a growing need that can be serviced. Of course, this would require Indian talent to be well prepared for the emerging requirements; we discuss that in later sections. Overall, it can safely be said that India has already made a head start in international market for talent. And with the demographics on its side, it is well placed to service the world‘s requirements for many decades ahead. International Low-skilled Migration The bulk of migration taking place from India is unskilled in nature. There are about five million overseas Indian workers in this category all over the world. The Gulf has traditionally been the recipient of a large number of semi and unskilled labour, and the numbers continue to grow. More than 90 percent of these workers are in the Gulf countries and Southeast Asia. Figure 9 depicts the annual outflow of labour from India. The outflow is consistently rising from 2000 onwards. 12 Figure 9: Annual Labour Outflows from India 900000 Labour Outflow 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Source: Annual Reports, Ministry of Labour, GOI, Various Editions [Note: This data pertains to workers requiring emigration clearance. The emigration permit is mandatory for unskilled and semi skilled labour before leaving the country.] According to the MOIA, Annual Report 2007-08, during 2006 about 670,000 workers emigrated from India with emigration clearance. Out of this about 255,000 workers went to UAE and about 134,000 to Saudi Arabia. Outside the Gulf region, Malaysia is also emerging as an important destination for intake of Indian labour - about 36,000 workers migrated to Malaysia in that year. This is yet another example of new locations opening up for Indian talent. 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 13 Figure 10: Annual Labour Outflows to Gulf Countries 300000 Bahrain 250000 Kuwait Oman Saudi UAE 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: Annual Reports, Ministry of Labour, GOI, Various Editions A large majority of about 70 per cent of the Indian migrants in the Gulf has comprised the semi–skilled and unskilled workers, the rest being white–collar workers (20%) and professionals (10%). Though the latter are becoming more and more significant in recent years (Khadria, 2006). This follows the economic structure of the host countries. After the initial years of the oil boom, large infrastructure investments and those in basic industry led to the creation of great opportunities for low skilled labour. However, with the advancing of the Gulf economies the requirements are more and more towards services and high value added activities. Indian Government statistics reveal that the socio economic profile of Indian migrants to the Gulf has been shifting since the late eighties. There has been an increased flow of professionals and white collar workers. There is a significant change in demand for skills away from construction towards operations and maintenance, services, and transport and communications. In general there is a tendency to hire more professionals and skilled manpower as opposed to unskilled and semi-skilled workers. Consequently, countries such as the U.A.E are shifting focus away from unskilled to the skilled and professionals category. Apart from highly qualified professionals such as doctors, engineers and architects, bankers and CA‘s, many white collar workers are now working in Government offices and Public sector enterprises. Others are engaged in 14 gold, electronics, motor spare parts or textile trades, construction industry, managing hotels and restaurants (Indian Council of World Affairs, 2001). But despite this trend in the Gulf, the overall low skilled workers are increasing. These semi- skilled and unskilled workers are mostly temporary migrants who return to India after expiry of their contractual labour to GCC countries. employment. Figure 10 shows the annual outflow of Figure 11: Occupational Profile of Indians in UAE, 2001 Equipment Operators and Related Workers Production and Related Workers, Transport Farmers, Fishermen and Related Workers Service Sales Clerical and Related Workers Administrative, Executive and Managerial Workers Professional/Technical and Related Workers 0 5 10 15 20 5.72 0.6 35.84 9.04 13.25 14.76 Percent 20.78 25 30 35 40 Source: Zachariah et.al. 2002. In sum, whether it is skilled or low skilled, in totality there is a great demand internationally for international talent. And this demand is only going to grow. Among all the major countries of the world, India is the best placed to service this international requirements for many years to come. India’s internal migration There are many factors that drive migration - lifestyles, incomes, employment, education, marriage, family movement, etc. But the bulk of domestic migration is directly for employment. Among the rest, though more than half of the women migrate due to marriage and many children migrate as their parents migrate, ultimately almost all of the long-term location choice is for employment opportunities of household 15 members (Bhandari, 2007). Out of total population that migrated to other state 48 percent were workers as per the last census. Talent migrates locally, across regions within countries and internationally. Unlike in the case of international migration, government intervention plays little role in controlling domestic movement of workers in India, as in most countries. Consequently locations that have greater incomes and greater creation of opportunities tend to be the largest receivers of migrants. Conversely, states that have low incomes and low economic growth tend to be the net suppliers of talent. Consequently, states such as Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, and Maharashtra are among the largest net receivers of in-migrants. And low per capita income and low growth states such as UP and Bihar are the topmost sources of out-migrants. Maharashtra tops the list with 3.76 million net inflows of migrants. Followed by Haryana (1.46 million) and Gujarat (0.81 million). On the supply side, Bihar (-2.89 million) and Uttar Pradesh (1.44 million) topped as major states with net out flows of migrants. Growth of net migration in some states has been phenomenal. Net migration in Haryana increased about 3.5 times during 1991 to 2001, to a large extent this was due to the rapid growth of areas in Haryana surrounding Delhi – Gurgaon being a well known example. It almost doubled in Maharashtra during the same period. Gujarat (68%) and Delhi (35%) were other territories which experienced large increases. Among the major cities, as many as 16.4 percent of the total population of Delhi consisted of in-migrants in 2001 (arrived in the period 1991-2001). Greater Mumbai and Bangalore followed at 15 and 13.4 percent respectively. These are among the most rapidly growing Urban Agglomerations in the post reform India. 16 Figure 12: Growth of net migration of workers in selective states during 1991 to 2001 350 300 250 200 150 343 172.8 in percent 100 68.4 50 0 -50 35.1 -60 -100 -112.3 -150 MH DL GJ HR UP BH Source: Census of India 2001. Data highlights, migration tables. Figure 13: Distribution of interstate migrant workers (in millions) 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.15 (18) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 R-U R-R U-U U-R 5.98 (26) 7.71(34) 4.90 (22) 17 Source: Census of India 2001. Note: R-U: Rural to Urban; R-R: Rural to Rural; and likewise. Note: figures in parenthesis are percent of total Of course rural to rural inter-state migration is also not insignificant (about 26%). However this class of migration benefits from the migrant having relatively greater familiarity with his new environment and is more like local migration. Moreover, such migration is characterized by extremely low or no education, low skills, and agriculture related occupations. Urban in-migration on the other hand is more likely to occur among those who are relatively better skilled and educated. Consequently manufacturing, trade, and services such as finance tend to be the more likely occupations. These differences are also reflected in data from a large survey on employment and migration conducted by India‘s National Sample Survey Organization. About 90 percent of the rural migrants had secondary/matric level education or below, while the figure was 79 percent for the urban migrants. Only 10 percent of the rural migrants were either graduates or post graduates or technical diploma holders. For the urban area literate interstate migrants with graduate or post graduate degree were 38 percent. The Three Dangers Demographic Dividend and Talent Shortage India is perhaps the only nation which will have the youngest workforce amidst the aging economies of world in the coming decades. It is estimated that globally there will be a skilled manpower shortage of 56.5 million by 2020 and if India gears itself properly it could have skilled manpower surplus of approximately 47 million by 2020.3 This presents India with a unique opportunity to harness this dividend through skill development of the youth. 3 Eleventh Plan Document, Volume I, Planning Commission, Government of India. 18 Figure 14: Population Pyramid 2026 Source: Registrar General of India The numbers are large and potential scale massive. The population for the age group 15-60 group is expected to increase by 114 percent by 2025 (from 589 millions in 200405 to 1261 millions in 2025). As per Indicus estimates, growth in the population having education of diploma/certificate course or graduation or above, would be as much as 237 percent. Growth in the population having education level secondary or below level would be 170 percent. In spite of all these demographic advantages India currently does not have training and education policies that can meaningfully convert this demographic dividend into employable dividend. On the one hand skill shortages is due to the general academic orientation of the education system leading to low levels of employability of the educated. Moreover 90 percent of the school students drop out at different stages thus very few reaching the higher education levels. Even for less educated vocational / skill training structure leave much to be desired. In this regard the Eleventh Plan document reports that among persons of age 15-29 years, only about 2% are reported to have received formal vocational training and another 8% reported to have received nonformal vocational training. 19 Figure 15: Estimated number of individuals in 15-60 age group across general education level for 2025. 300 250 2004-05 2025 200 in millions 150 100 50 - Others Secondary Higher Secondary dip./certf course Tlc Middle Source: Estimates by Indicus Analytics India‘s transformation to a knowledge economy and the associated change in profile of employment opportunities has created a demand supply gap in skills in new economy sectors. In addition old economy sector also face deficiencies on the skill front. Recent industry wise survey by FICCI throws light on the emerging skill shortages scenario in the country. The survey highlights the large requirement of skilled workers on one hand and world class professionals on the other. For instance the IT sector may face a shortage of 500,000 technology professionals by 2010. Also in the education sector 25% to 40% shortage of faculty members in disciplines like engineering, management, economics, computer science in Central Universities is anticipated. The survey also highlights talent shortages in sectors like Health, Engineering/ Heavy equipment industry, Insurance, Automotive industry, mining, textiles, civil aviation, environment and oil and gas. Thus talent shortages exist across wide range of sectors in the economy. Lit W/O Formalsch. Not Literate Lit- Below Primary Grad_&Above Primary 20 80% of new entrants to workforce have no opportunity for skill training. Against 12.8 million per annum new entrants to the workforce the existing training capacity is 3.1 million per annum. About 2% of existing workforce has skill training against 96% in Korea, 75% in Germany, 80% in Japan, and 68% in the United Kingdom. 38.8% of the Indian labour force is illiterate, 24.9% of the labour force has had schooling up to the primary level and the balance 36.3% has had schooling up to the middle and higher level. About 80% of the workforce in rural and urban areas does not possess any identifiable marketable skills. Structure and absence of quality consciousness are said to be major reasons for the current state of affairs. Eleventh Plan Document, Vol I, Planning Commission, Government of India Only 5% of the Indian labour force in the age group of 20-24 has received vocational training whereas the percentage in industrialized countries is much higher, varying between 60% and 80%. The illiterate and literate up to primary level of education constitute a very high proportion of the existing work force, the two together account for nearly 67% of the work force. The educated without professional skills constitute 69% of the total unemployed. 90 % of the school students drop out at different stages. Only 2.5 to 3 million vocational education and training places are available in the country. Report of The Working Group on Skill Development and Vocational Training, Eleventh Plan, Planning Commission, GOI 21 Rapid growth and Social Unrest Rapid growth in an area can be well sustained if it can draw on the skill capital of other states. This enables such areas to maintain high growth levels and also build a competitive economy. But there is a negative outcome as well. Rapid in-migration may change the social and cultural characteristics of a particular location. This can create dis-satisfaction on the part of local communities. Moreover, as migrants are often willing to undertake the same task at a lower remuneration than demanded by the locals, it also creates competition between the two groups. This can result in an ironical duality in high growth regions. While recent migrants are able to find a job that allows a better life, local residents find it difficult to find a job of their liking and remain unemployed. The taxi drivers in Mumbai are a very good case in point. Locals are much more familiar with the city, and therefore should generally be better at this job than migrants. Driving a taxi however requires irregular working hours, is physically and mentally taxing, and is not the most desirable of jobs for local youth. Consequently most taxi drivers in Mumbai are migrants. The combination of these two forces has been known to bring about extra-legal and harmful acts by local interest groups against migrants. The recent experiences in Maharashtra are a well known example. But that is just one example among many in India and abroad. But if no dealt with properly, such situations can harm both the potential migrant as well as the host economy and community. Take the example of India‘s three most important cities. Cities such as Delhi for instance have an insignificant proportion of its population that is its original inhabitant. In the process its socio-cultural character has been ever-changing since the nineteen fifties. But unlike in Mumbai in recent times, and Kolkata in the seventies, Delhi has largely welcomed in-migrants. That has enabled Delhi and surrounding areas to grow and prosper in a sustainable manner and en-richening its socio-cultural heritage simultaneously. Cities such as Kolkata on the other hand created barriers for particular groups, they were no doubt able to retain their socio-cultural character, but lost out on the richness and depth that comes with a more cosmopolitan society, and also lost out on economic growth. All large cities of the world and all successful economic centers have a history of inclusiveness within their respective domains. When they have controlled the entry of people from other cultures they have limited their own economic potential and have also arrested their growth as socio-cultural centers. 22 This is an aspect of domestic migration that India will have to come to terms with. Currently less than a third of India resides in its cities; this will very soon be greater than half. Large numbers will move from low growth to high growth and from rural to urban centres. The more the differences between two areas the more rapid would be the migration, and if not handled properly, the more harmful would be the responses. International Slowdown The past few months have revealed that the international economy has very rapidly turned from a high growth phase to one of low or even negative growth in all countries. As the first few quarters of the recession pan out, firms in across the world would be expected to reduce new hiring, and even lay off talent. According to the UN Secretary General workers in construction and tourism are losing jobs in affected countries and remittances have slowed. In his speech at the Second Global Forum on Migration and Development in Manila, he has urged the governments to cooperate across borders to exploit the benefits of the migration process even under such conditions. According to the Director General ILO, the current crisis would hit hardest such sectors as construction, automotive, tourism, finance, services and real estate. He also noted that the new projections ―could prove to be underestimates if the effects of the current economic contraction and looming recession are not quickly confronted‖. In other words, the jobs will once again come at a premium. Governments across the world will be pressurized to build barriers against international talent. In times like these inward looking pessimistic immigration policies may be populist responses but the dynamics of migration are so strong that the governments may not take such knee jerk reactions. Indians have started to feel the heat of the slowdown with many top end entry level international job offers being revoked. The global slowdown may possibly hit the Indian outsourcing industry the most. Already there is some news of projects being cancelled and/or postponed. India's IT firms derive 40 percent of their global revenues from financial services clients, with 61 percent of total sales from the U.S. and 30 percent from Europe. Some of India's IT majors have already revised their sales growth forecasts for the year downwards by 5 to 6 percentage points. However, Infosys, like other IT firms, is hoping that short-term pain will give way to long term gains, as U.S. companies are forced to make deeper cost cuts and, potentially, outsource more work to India (Associated Press) 23 Gains from Migration Remittances Migration, whether domestic or international, results in a better matching of a person‘s inherent ability with employment and income options. This results in greater productivity, output and remuneration. The net result is a win-win situation where all three – the employer, the employee, and his family benefit. The success of the Green Revolution in the states of Punjab and Haryana is dependent upon the cheap agriculture labor from states such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Hard data on domestic repatriation is unavailable, but there are many examples in low growth low income states where families have been able to beat the poverty trap on back of migration. However, some indirect evidence adduced from the NSS surveys on migration and consumption and employment/ unemployment by a research study4 showed, in 1992–93, 89 percent of permanent outmigrants sent remittances. The percentage of all rural households receiving remittance income is also fairly high – in some regions of the country, one-quarter to one-third of the households receive remittances. The other source of resource flow that can alleviate poverty is the savings brought home by migrants in cash or kind. Remittances are also the most immediate and tangible benefits of international migration. India was the largest recipient of workers‘ remittances, which amounted to US$ 27 billion in 2007. Incidentally remittances have outstripped net foreign direct investment and official financial flows in India. With the profile of the migrants changing to the highly skilled, remittances are only expected to increase further. This is already evident as from the 1980s the share of the Middle East region in the total remittances decline from 77 percent (1980-81) to around 61 percent in 1990-91 to and further to 22 percent in 2003. This was accompanied by a consistent increase of remittances from the industrialized countries‘ especially from the United States, in the same time period of reference. This trend becomes pronounced from the mid 1990s. The share of America in the total remittances increased from 37 percent to 51 percent between 1997 and 2003. Non- Resident Indian (NRI) Deposits have been the other main source of attracting savings of Indian migrants. Various NRI deposit schemes with varying incentives have been in place since 1970. Though it is debatable in this era of free and fair markets 4 Ravi Srivastava and S.K. Sasikumar “An overview of migration in India, its impacts and key issues”, Migration development pro-poor policy choices in Asia, 2003. 24 whether the NRI should benefit from special privileges, nevertheless, the fact remains that the NRI deposits have contributed significantly to the large foreign exchange surpluses that India enjoys (S.K. Sasikumar and Zakir Hussain, 2007). Brain Gain and Brain Circulation The rapid expansion of IT and IT enabled industry in India during the last decade is also encouraging a large number of Indians to return and set up business ventures, especially in key IT centers in India like Bangalore. Such a trend of to and fro movement of professionals and ideas require that the discussion of the impact of migration of high skilled labour on India should be within the framework of ‗brain gain‘. It is estimated that at least 35000 IT professionals have returned to either work in IT companies or set up business enterprises in Bangalore alone (S.K.. Sasikumar and Hussain, 2005). A recent comprehensive survey of India‘s software industry showed strong evidence of brain circulation, with 30-40 percent of the higher-level employees in India having relevant work experience in a developed country (Commander et al., 2004). About a third of GE India‘s R&D staff has returned from the U.S., while IBM India identifies half of the company‘s PhD researchers as returnees. In Pharma R&D as well, the evidence is very much in line with that in the IT sector. A survey conducted by Duke and Harvard university researchers in India found that a majority of the PhDs in drug discovery by sector leaders such as Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy‘s Laboratories, and Aurigene, received their degrees in the USA (Harvard Law School, 2007). Moreover NRIs temporarily returning to India as intra-company transferees of multinational corporations facilitate the smooth setting up of FDI entities, acting as facilitators that smoothen the wrinkles faced in matching different work cultures Though, specific experiences apart, return skilled migration remains relatively limited and is often more a consequence than a trigger of growth in the home country. Companies like Yahoo, Hewlett Packard, and General Electric opened operations in India largely because of the confidence infused by the presence of many Indians working in their U.S. operations. Enabling Networks Kapur and McHale, 2005, argue that the more recent Indian migration streams draw significantly from the middle class and skilled labour force, which can contribute in many ways over and above the stereotypical remittance contribution. The story is now of Indian nationals after receiving their higher education in the US becoming successful 25 host country entrepreneurs (e.g. in Silicon Valley) and on account of their knowledge of the work cultures and bureaucratic systems in India they serve as bridges between Asian and American markets. Their contacts and access to technology and capital in both markets and societies is also an asset for businesses. A survey of Silicon Valley‘s Asian population in 2002 by AnnaLee Saxenian, has some interesting results about the potential role of the elite Indian professionals belonging to this group in building networks. From those surveyed 77 percent had one or more friends who returned to India to start a company, 52 percent travel to India on business at least once a year, 27 percent regularly exchange information on jobs or business opportunities with those in India, and 33 percent regularly exchange technological information. As for their potential role as ―reputational intermediaries‖, 46 percent have been a contact for domestic Indian businesses. On the investment side, 23 percent have invested their own money into Indian start-ups—10 percent more than once. Knowledge Diffusion There is a substantial skill upgradation when Indian technology professionals work in an international environment. The Indian diaspora is thus expected to play an important role in technology diffusion in the country. According to Pandey, et.al. 2004, this happens through the following linkages: Facilitating the evolution of IT and ITES sector towards higher value-add, knowledge intensive outsourcing through mentoring and coaching the incumbent offshore vendors. Leveraging the Indian network to create mutually beneficial situations with other Diaspora and other IT communities, e.g., the Chinese Diaspora and the Chinese software and hardware manufacturing communities (in China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong). Even in the low skills sector such as construction, the large returnee temporary migrant labour that was familiar with international methods and technologies could rapidly be deployed in the construction sector boom in recent years. Costs of Migration Brain Drain Unless there is a clear surplus of skills and human capital, large scale migration indeed has a possibility of creating an enormous shortage of resources that are drivers for 26 development, institutional creation as well as building and economic well-being. This can range from the loss of a dynamic segment and the youth on local/domestic entrepreneurship, to very deleterious consequences for future generations of scarce talent in universities. It should be recognized that a large majority of the migrants do not return. This is true for both domestic as well as international migration, and aptly reflected in the high rates of urbanization growth within the country, as well as permanent work Visas and citizenships granted to international migrants from India. Loss of Investment in Human Capital The government, at the central, state, and local levels invests substantial amounts in education and health. In the case of professional and high human capital the investment is significantly higher than for a low skilled worker. Migration imposes a double hit on the government. On the one hand, the investment in the development of the migrant is lost to some other state or country. And on the other, the potential economic and tax base is also lower as productive and energetic individuals are lost. In both cases there is a negative long term fiscal impact. The new paradigm of ―brain gain‖ and ―talent circulation‖ of viewing talent migration may be relevant in some fields in others like higher education, medicine and health care this may not be the case. As teachers, doctors, nurses and medical professionals leave an area they create a major service gap adversely affecting those who remain. Exploitation by Middlemen and Agents In the case of both domestic and international migrants there are many cases of exploitation and fraud by agents/contractors/employers. Since the migrant is in a new environment, it is difficult for him to access institutions of law and justice. In some cases language barriers also adversely affect access to such institutions. phenomenon affects both domestic as well as international migrants. This Access to Basic Services Migrants find it hard to access public facilities such as healthcare, access to ration shops, education, clean water and sanitation at the new place. This is mainly because migrants lack basic identification and proof for place of residence in the new place, which is important for accessing the basic public amenities in India and also in most other 27 countries (Laveesh Bhandari, 2007). If there are language differences, the problem is worsened. And children of migrants need special care and coaching in being able to fit into the new educational environment. A study on the vulnerability of the workers in an industrial area in New Delhi show that in the absence of proper observance of existing labour rights, the migrant labourers work in a hazardous working atmosphere. Working condition in industries like cotton mills, small tile making factories, salt making fields expose migrant workers to occupational hazards like lung ailments, body ache and skin diseases. Many times, the lack of knowledge of rights combines with lack of access to facilitating institutions. This causes undue hardship and exploitation to the migrant. Migration of laborers from Orissa to Surat An estimated lakh laborers from Ganjam district of Orissa make Surat their city of livelihood. They prefer to migrate to Surat as there is little scope for livelihood near their homes. Rohita Pagada of Lundajuadi village (Orissa) said that he knew he was returning to `hell-like living conditions.' But it is a compulsion. Most Oriya migrants in Surat live in slums. At times around 20 people share a single room house with no water or sanitation facilities. The migrants work in shifts allowing half of the group to sleep at night. When it is a holiday some may sleep in the streets and on the footpath, said Mohan Nayak, a migrant laborer of the Khalikote area. These migrants also say locals treat them as second class citizens. They alleged that as there are no government records, both Orissa and Gujarat governments never address their problems. - The Hindu, Monday, January 22, 2007 Government Action It has now been demonstrated that talent migration can contribute in ways unforeseen and governments at the state and central level need to facilitate the smooth and safe flow of talent as well as a good work and living environment. 28 Turning ‗Demographic Dividend‘ into ‗Employable Dividend‘ For India to benefit from the opportunities that are emerging in the world, Indian talent would need to be appropriately educated and skilled. The government recognizes this and apart from rapidly increasing expenditures on education, is also instituting many of vocational and skill development programs. However, given the scale of the problem, these efforts are inadequate. For this purpose ensuring greater private sector entry into the educational and vocational training sector will be critical. The entry of international educational and skill development organizations needs to be encouraged and facilitated. Safe Immigration Complaints are often received about cheating of intending emigrants by touts and recruiting agents and exploitation and ill-treatment of emigrants by their foreign employers. Malpractices like substitution of contract, underpayment and delayed payment of wages, denial of contractual facilities etc are frequent. The Emigration Act of 1983 needs to re-looked at and changes that clearly delineate the roles and responsibilities of critical stakeholders including central government, Indian Missions, Protector General of Emigrants and Recruiting Agencies and Employers need to be laid down. Perhaps even more important, the implementation of the Act needs to be tightened. Identity, Database and Information Domestic migrants require proper identity of temporary residence that can then help them avail of government services in their new location. This is currently missing in India and local government services such as basic health and education are inaccessible for the large numbers of domestic migrants. A proper registration system that identifies the migrant and his/her family as such and allows them access to these services requires to be put in place. Proper documentation would also facilitate access the judicial and policing system. International migration has a different set of issues; the out-migrant requires support from the embassies; an understanding of activities and occupations Indian migrants are involved in would also enable better promotional action on the part of the government and its agencies internationally. Special criteria for migrants in government services 29 Temporary migrants, seasonal migrants, and recent migrants all suffer from poor access to public services as it is difficult to identify there residency. Moreover emerging safety procedures such as KYC (know your consumer) norms also limit their access to banking, telecommunication as well as utilities. Regulations and procedural guidelines need to be changed at the central, state and local government level to ensure that the migrant is not kept out of such essentials. Greater Portfolio Diversification India‘s migration and manpower policies need greater portfolio diversification both with respect to the countries as well as occupations. It will be difficult for the government to accurately and finely predict such opportunities. However certain actions such as opportunities for learning international languages, better access to information on emerging sectors in different countries, involvement of Indian embassies in facilitating talent migration, all would help. Bilateral agreements and liberalization of policies In the absence of the liberalization of Mode Four (Movement of Natural Persons), in the WTO negotiations this is a option available for India for increasing the scale as well as the scope of migration. Opening up India‘s borders to skilled international professionals would facilitate this, improve the spread of technologies in India, deepen economic networks and overall facilitate greater talent out-migration from India. Implementation and tightening of laws dealing with domestic migrants There are a range of laws governing migrants within the country. Building and Other Construction Workers (Regulation of Employment and Conditions of Service) Act, 1976; the Building and Other Construction Workers (Cess) Act, 1976; the Inter State Migrant Workmen (Regulation and Conditions of Service) Act 1979; the Workmen‘s Compensation Act, 1923 and the Minimum Wages Act, 1948, and perhaps the most important of all - the Inter State Migrant Workmen (Regulation and Conditions of Service) Act 1979, are some examples. These laws currently are only on paper and imposed infrequently and record of prosecutions and dispute settlement has been very weak (Srivastava, 2003). The laws need to be made in line with the three imperatives of a globalizing economy – minimizing controls on free movement of people and goods within and outside the country, better implementation of the core property and fundamental rights of the migrants and their employers, and ensure that universal and even implementation of the laws occurs. 30 Overall the role of the government needs to be to create an ecosystem that enables the smooth matching of the skill sets that workers have to offer with those that employers require, irrespective of the locational differences. This would require smooth and safe movement of individuals and employers across national and international borders, existence of enabling organizations such as educational and vocational training institutions, as well as a legal and regulatory regime that protects property, life and liberty of all while ensuring minimal regulation and procedural bottlenecks. Employer Action Employers, whether large or small, hiring internationally or domestically, and seeking high or low skilled talent, will face a significant bottleneck in terms of availability of specific skill sets. Though such proactive action is currently limited to only a few of the largest firms, they are experimenting with various scalable options that are a win-win for all. Whether sourcing talent for India operations, or for international ones, such last-mile training would help employers reduce their costs and increase productivity in the long run. The few employers, both Indian and international, that have already recognized this, are taking a range of actions that would (a) reduce the difficulties in accessing appropriate talent, and (b) ensure that the demographic dividend plays out as an employment dividend as well. The efforts can be divided into three sub-domains, namely (1) Academia-industry partnerships, (2) In-house training and (3) Enabling institutions of learning and skill development. Academia-Industry partnerships Recognizing the need to access appropriately trained manpower, one of India‘s fastest growing banks, ICICI, has tied up with 27 professional institutes for hiring 100,000 trained people in next 5-7 yrs. In the IT sector, Infosys has similarly tied up with Vishveshwarya Tech which operates 135 engineering colleges in the country. The company also via its ―Campus Connect Programme‖, provides software-training modules to students of engineering colleges in its campus. IBM is also building such partnerships and attempting to spread the use of open source software in academic institutions. This will help it source the OSS skill sets in India that are hard to find internationally on a large enough scale. 31 Such academia industry partnerships help build an ecosystem where the supply is targeted to the demand for specific skill sets. It enables firms to source talent internationally, and is a strategy best suited for their India operations. In House training by Companies to build talent pipeline Across almost all sectors, in services, infrastructure, and manufacturing, companies are training new hirees in-house before putting them onto productive tasks. For instance Management trainees in Hindustan Unilever undergo an intensive 12-month crossfunctional training programme before they start work. India‘s largest automobile maker, Maruti Udyog spent close to Rs 80 million in 2006 on training its employees across levels. One of India‘s largest IT companies, Wipro has a project management academy where managers undergo a six months intensive programme made of 20 behavioural models ranging from interpersonal relations to leading subordinates. L&T has set up construction skills training institutes where 10 th and 12th pass students are given training in masonry, carpentry, electrician. Unlike the above examples, these students may not be hired by L&T and may be used by it as subcontractors in its projecs. Yet others are using their international affiliates and branches; Accenture for instance follows a job rotation system and sends its highest performing senior managers to different offices around the world where senior Accenture leaders coach them. This ‗brain-circulation‘ helps in the spread of knowledge and methods across the orgaization and at the same time ensures that a strong and deep base of skills is created within an organization. The critical employer action therefore needs to be in the domain of skill improvement and vocational training. It is not, of course, the task of employers to venture into the education space as a core activity. However, a large part of the manpower requires two-three month training and skill improvement. Employers are best suited for such tasks, as they more than anyone else are aware of the specific requirements of specific jobs. *** 32 Selected References Bhandari, L., 2007. No homes away from home – Indian Express. Chatterjee, C. B., 2006. Identities in Motion; Migration and Health in India - The Centre for Enquiry into Health and Allied Themes (CEHAT), Mumbai. Commander, S., R. Chanda, M. Kangasmieni and A.L. Winters, 2004.Who gains from skilled migration? Evidence from the software industry, Manuscript, Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics. Deshingkar, P. and S. Grimm, 2005. Internal Migration and Development: A Global Perspective - International Organization for Migration (IOM). DeWind, J. and J. Holdaway, 2005. Internal and International Migration in Economic Development - Social Science Research Council, New York City. Finn, M., 2007. Stay Rates of Foreign Doctorate Recipients from U.S. Universities, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education. Government of India, 2007. Planning Commission of India, Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12) Chapter 4 and 5. Government of India, 2007. Planning Commission of India, Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-2012), Report of the Working Group on Skill Development and Vocational Training. Government of India, Ministry of Labour, Annual Reports, Various editions. Harris N., 2003. Migration of Labor Constructing Transitional Arrangements - Economic and Political Weekly October 18, 2003. Indian Council of World Affairs. 2001. Report of the High Level Committee on the Indian Diaspora, New Delhi. Kannankutty N. and J. 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Rural to Urban Migration: A District Level Analysis for India - Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO. Mukherji, S., 2001. Low Quality Migration in India: The Phenomena of Distressed Migration and Acute Urban Decay. Munshi, K. and M. Rosenzweig, 2007. Why is Mobility in India so Low? Social Insurance, Inequality, and Growth. Pandey, A., A. Aggarwal, R. Devane, Y. Kuznetsov, 2004. India‘s Transformation to Knowledge-based Economy – Evolving Role of the Indian Diaspora, Evalueserve, India. Policies and Perspectives. ILO/EU Asian Programme on the Governance of Labour Migration Sasikumar, S.K., and Z. Hussain, 2005. Managing International Labour Migration from India: Sasikumar S.K. and Zakir Hussain (2007). Migration, Remittances and DevelopmentLessons from India, Research Studies Series No. 083/2007, V.V. Giri National Labour Research Institute, India. Saxenian, AnnaLee. 2002. Local and Global Networks of Immigrant Professionals in Silicon Valley. 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Socio-economic Status of Workers in the Salt Industry in India: A report – Bay of Bengal Programme – Inter-Governmental Organisation, Chennai. Zachariah et al, 2004. Indian Workers in UAE Employment, Wages and Working Conditions, Economic and Political Weekly. 34 Zachariah, K.C., E. T. Mathew and S. Irudaya Rajan, 1999. Impact of Migration on Kerala's Economy aAnd Society - Working Paper No. 297. Websites accessed www.nsf.gov www.dhs.gov www.uscis.gov www.immi.gov.au 35 For query or placing orders on Indicus Products please contact Indicus Analytics Pvt. Ltd. 2nd Floor, Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg New Delhi- 110002. Phone: 91-11-42512400/01 E-mail: email@example.com www.indicus.net 36
"India’s Talent Migration - An Indicus-Manpower Whitepaper"