The Iran Nuclear Crisis

							The Iran Nuclear Crisis



          Herzliya Conference
             Scott D. Sagan
            February 4, 2009
Proliferation Fatalism: The belief that coercive diplomacy
can not stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.




Deterrence Optimism: The belief that a nuclear Iran can be
easily deterred through threats of nuclear retaliation.
    (Mis)Reading the 2007 NIE
• Iran “halted” its nuclear
  weapons program in
  2003
• Iran’s weapons program
  was a violation of its NPT
  obligations
• Covert enrichment
  program exists outside of
  Natanz
      Dangers of a Nuclear Iran
• Cold War analogy
  flawed
• Pakistan analogy
  better
   – Shield for aggressive
     action
   – Ambiguous “control”
   – Dangerous custodians
   – Anonymous attack
• Further proliferation
             Moving Forward?

• Stronger Carrots
  – Regime Coexistence
  – LWR Assistance
  – Grand Bargain
• Stronger Sticks
  – Sanctions on Refined
    Petroleum
  – Financial Sanctions
• Military Options