Climate Change Proposed Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change
Richard Varenchik Office of Climate Change
California Air Resources Board
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Global Warming
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Climate Impacts
California Projected Impacts
75% loss in snow pack 1-2 foot sea level rise 70 more extreme heat days/year 80% more ‘likely ozone’ days 55% more large forest fires Twice the drought years
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2002-2004 GHG Emissions
(469 MMTCO2E)
High GWP, 3% Recycling/Waste, 1% Res & Comm, 9% Agriculture, 6% Transportation , 38%
Industrial, 19%
Electricity (Imports), 12%
Electricity (In State), 11%
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The Challenge
ARB Emissions Inventory 700 600
Million Metric Tons (CO2 Equivalent)
~169 MMT CO2e - 33% 1990 Emission Baseline
500 400 300 200 100 0
80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e
1990
2000
2004
Year
2020
2050
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AB 32 Timeline
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2020
Identification/ implementation of further emission reduction strategies
Publish list of early actions
GHG reduction measures operative
Mandatory reporting & 1990 Baseline Publish scoping plan Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
Adopt Scoping Plan 11/08
Enforceable early action regulations
GHG reduction measures adopted
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Scoping Plan Schedule
• • • • • • • • Oct. 3, 2008 Final Proposed Plan Released Nov. 20, 2008 Scoping Plan Adopted? 2009 Begin Working on Measures 2010 Begin Enforcing Early Action Measures 2011 Adopt Other Reduction Measures 2012 Reduction Measures Operative 2020 Cut CO2 to 1990 Levels 2020 Keep Moving Toward 2050 80%
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Plan’s Major Sectors
• • • • State Government, Land Use & Local Gvt. Water, Electricity & Natural Gas, Industry Green Buildings, Waste & Recycling Transportation, Forests, Agriculture
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Many Contributors to and Commenter's on Scoping Plan
More than 42,000 people commented, about 1000 unique comments covering many areas: Electricity, Natural Gas, Petroleum Environmental Groups, Counties, Cities PUC, Transit Agencies, Food Processors Cement Industry, Manufacturers, Agriculture Glass Manufacturers, Citizens. Universities Agencies in Governor’s Climate Action Team ARB Committees
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• • • • • • •
Inventory Calculation, Reporting & Verification Already Adopted
• Electricity: Generating, Retailing, Marketing & Cogeneration Facilities • Oil Refineries, Hydrogen Plants, Cement Plants • Glass Manufacturing, Food Processing • Industrial Sources of 25,000+ Metric Tons of CO2 Per Year from Stationary Combustion
– Begin tracking in 2008, Begin reporting in 2009 – Expect About 1000 Facilities
• (Not Hospitals or primary & secondary schools)
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How to Reach 2020 Goal?
• Mix of strategies that combine market mechanisms (cap & trade), traditional regulations, voluntary measures, and fees • Key elements:
– Energy efficiency programs – Renewable Energy Portfolio Standard – Transportation – fuels, VMT, engine efficiency – California cap and trade program linked to WCI – Education and Outreach
• Things Will Change as Process Moves Along
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GHG Emissions Per Person
30 25 Tons of CO2 Equivalent
24.3
20 15 10 5 0 U.S. CA
2020 Population: ~7.6 billion 2020 GHG emissions: ~4 tons/person
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13.1 10.7 10.5 7.5 3.9
Russia Japan E.U. Sweden China
World Average
1.9
India
Reduce CA to 10 Tons Per Person by 2020
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Transportation # 1 Contributor
Cars, Trucks, Goods Movement and Fuel
• Light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas reductions (Pavley I and Pavley II) Pavley 1 $30 a month • Low carbon fuel standard • Efficiency measures for cars • Aerodynamic improvements for big-rig trucks • Hybridization for urban and short-haul trucks • Implement adopted goods movement strategies and improve efficiency • High speed rail
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Energy #2 Contributor
Electricity and Natural Gas
• Achieve 33 percent RPS for all utilities • Seeking Reductions of 32,000 gigawatt hours & 800 million therms • Enough to power more than 5 million homes • Replace need to build about ten new large power plants (500 Megawatts each).
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Per Capita Electricity Use in California and the US
CEC 2007 IEPR
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New Energy Efficiency Measures (1)
• Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial, Residential, and Schools:
– “Zero Net Energy” buildings (produces the energy it uses) – More stringent building codes and appliance efficiency standards – Standards for new types of appliances and for water efficiency – Better compliance with existing standards – Voluntary targets for new buildings beyond mandatory codes – Voluntary and mandatory retrofits for existing buildings
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New Energy Efficiency Measures (2)
– Financing for energy efficiency and on-site generation – More aggressive utility programs – Water system efficiency – Local government programs – Industrial and agricultural efficiency efforts – Providing real time energy information to help consumers conserve (new meters)
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State Government
• State must set an example • Reduce “carbon footprint” by 30% from expected 2020 levels
– State Green Buildings Initiative – State motor vehicle fleet clean up – Procurement practices – Commute alternatives for State employees
• Evaluate “carbon shadow”
– Climate change impact of government policies and decisions
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Municipal Operations GHG Sources
• • • • • • Government Building and Facility Energy Use Government Fleet Vehicles Water Treatment and Landfill Operations Port/Airport Operations Supplies you Purchase Trash you Generate
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Local Government Action
Climate Leadership • • • • • • Establishing Local GHG Targets Leading by Example with Municipal Operations Developing Climate Protection Plans Passing Ordinances, Standards, and Codes Implementing Programs for Local Citizens ARB is Building a “Local Government Toolkit”
– Assist Local Governments with GHG Emission Reductions
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Local Government Toolkit
• • • • Best Practices, Case Studies, Award Programs Climate Calculators, Decision Support Tools Financing Strategies, GHG Inventory Protocols Peer-Networking, Online Discussion Forum
http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ghgsectors/ghgsectors.htm#govern ARB – Climate Change – Sectors – Land Use and Local Gov.
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Land Use: A Long-Term Strategy That Must Begin Now
• Land use strategies mostly impact new growth • Benefits accumulate • Population: – 2010-2020 (+13%) – 2010-2040 (+39%) • Begin now to build up benefits • Senator Darrell Steinberg’s SB 375
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California Cap and Trade Linked to Regional Market
• California cap and trade to link with WCI for regional market • WCI: Az, Ca, NM, Or, Wash, Utah, Montana, BC, Manitoba, Quebec, Ontario • Ensure California’s program meets all AB 32 requirements • Capped sectors:
– Electricity – Industrial sources – Transportation fuels (by 2020) – Commercial and residential NG (by 2020)
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California Cap and Trade System
• Enforceable cap beginning in 2012 • Cap declines over time to meet 2020 targets; can be adjusted for 2050 target • State distributes “allowances” equal to total emissions in the cap • Allowances can be traded • Strong enforcement and monitoring • Must include safeguards for regional and local co-pollutants
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Possible Carbon Fees?
• (1) Small Fees to Pay for Programs • (2) Carbon pricing to achieve reductions • Price would be determined through economic models • Provides less certainty of meeting 2020 goal (consumer & business acceptance?)
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Potential Use of Revenues
• California Carbon Trust
– Use revenues for public good
• Potential uses:
– Support AB 32 reduction goal – Achieve environmental co-benefits – Local government incentives – Climate change adaptation – Community benefits – Consumer rebates – RD&D funding – Worker transition assistance
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Multiple Potential Benefits of AB 32 Implementation
• Many measures increase energy efficiency • Efficiency measures likely to mitigate moderate increases in energy prices • Pavley regulation saves car buyers $$$$ • Major Health Benefits
– Reduced premature deaths, illness, sick days
• Boom in Green Technology Business
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Public Health Benefits
Preliminary Estimates for 2020
Health Endpoint Avoided premature deaths Avoided hospitalizations due to respiratory causes Avoided hospitalizations due to cardiovascular causes Avoided asthma-related & other lower respiratory symptoms Avoided acute bronchitis Avoided work loss days Avoided minor restricted activity days Estimated Benefit* 320 67 120 8,800 730 53,000 310,000
*Based on preliminary estimates of Transportation, Electricity & Natural Gas, and Industrial sector
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Moving Toward 2050
A Clean Energy Future
• Governor’s Executive Order (S-03-05)
– 80% reduction of GHG by 2050
• Scoping Plan beyond 2020:
– Clean and secure energy sources – Sustainable, safe, and clean communities
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For Additional Information:
• ARB Web Site: www.arb.ca.gov “Climate Change” link on left side of page
www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm
(To stay informed - sign up for the list serve)
• California Climate Change Portal www.climatechange.ca.gov
ARB’s General Climate Change Contact: Rich Varenchik: rvarench@arb.ca.gov 626 575-6730
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