Climate Change Draft Scoping Plan:
A Framework for Change
Webinar
sponsored by ICLEI and the Local Government Commission August 11, 2008 Bill Blackburn, Jeff Weir California Air Resources Board
Today’s Presentation
• Draft Scoping Plan overview and status • Preliminary recommendation and additional measures under consideration • Scoping Plan evaluations • Land use and local government areas
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Draft Scoping Plan
• A Scoping Plan is specifically required under AB 32 • Draft Scoping Plan provides a comprehensive recommendation addressing all significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions
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Draft Scoping Plan
AB 32
• By 2020, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions statewide to 1990 levels • California’s GHG strategies will also:
– Protect and improve public health – Promote the development of clean energy – Foster opportunities for economic growth – Provide a model for regional, state, federal, and international programs – Put State on a path to 2050 goal
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Draft Scoping Plan
Draft Scoping Plan Development
• Contributions from Climate Action Team Subgroups • Input from EJAC, ETAAC, and MAC • Formal workshops & stakeholder work group meetings • Public solicitation • Extensive outreach at meetings, conferences and other events
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Draft Scoping Plan
Status
• Draft Plan released 6/26, Appendices 7/22 • July workshops to soliciting stakeholder comments for Proposed Scoping Plan • Supplemental evaluation (should be out within 2 weeks). • Proposed Scoping Plan, Final Appendices will be released 10/3 • Board consideration of Proposed Scoping Plan on 11/20
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AB 32 Timeline
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2012
2020
Identification/ implementation of further emission reduction strategies
Publish list of early actions
GHG reduction measures become operative
Mandatory reporting & 1990 Baseline Publish scoping plan
GHG reduction measures in Scoping Plan adopted
Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
Adopt enforceable early action regulations
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Draft Scoping Plan
Magnitude of the Challenge
ARB Emissions Inventory 700
~169 MMT CO2e Reduction
600
Million Metric Tons (CO2 Equivalent)
500 400 300 200 100 0
1990 Emission Baseline
427
80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e
1990
2000
2004
Year
2020
2050
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Draft Scoping Plan
2002-2004 GHG Emissions
(469 MMTCO2E)
Recycling/Waste, 1% Res & Com, 9% Agriculture, 6% High GWP, 3% Transportation, 38%
Industrial, 19%
Electricity (Imports), 12%
Electricity (In State), 11%
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Draft Scoping Plan Recommendations
• Mix of strategies that combine market mechanisms, regulations, voluntary measures and fees. Key elements:
– – – – CA cap-and-trade program linked to Western Climate In. Energy efficiency programs 33 percent RPS Existing laws and policies, including CA clean car standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Targeted fees (to fund implementation only) – Regional GHG targets for Transportation; Local Government Action
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Preliminary Recommendation
California Cap-and-Trade Linked to Regional Market
• • • • • • • Calif. cap-and-trade program linked other WCI Must meet all applicable AB 32 requirements Enforceable cap emissions from beginning 2012 Cap declines over time to meet 2020 & 2050 goals Limited use of offsets Strong monitoring and enforcement Include safeguards for regional/local co-pollutants
Capped sectors:
Initially: By 2020: Electricity and Industry Com. and Res. Natural Gas and Transp. Fuels
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Preliminary Recommendation
Transportation
Vehicles/Rail
• Light-duty vehicle GHG reductions
– Pavley I & II, and tire effic., low-friction oil, etc. – High speed rail Phase 1 2020
• Heavy-duty: Aerodynamics, hybridization (urban), advanced combustion etc. • Goods Movement – Prop. 1B funds
– Drayage trucks, port electrification – System efficiency, vessel speed reductions, limits on duration/use of refrigeration units, etc.
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Preliminary Recommendation
Transportation
Fuel
• Low Carbon Fuel Standard
– Reduce carbon intensity of transportation fuel by at least 10 percent – Considering full fuel cycle impacts – Anticipated Board consideration in late 2008 or early 2009
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Preliminary Recommendation
Energy
Energy Efficiency
• Expanded utility-based energy efficiency programs
– Applied to investor-owned and publicly-owned utilities
• More stringent building and appliance standards • Residential solar water heater program • Encourage combined heat and power to maximize efficiency
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Preliminary Recommendation
Energy
Renewables
• Million Solar Roofs (CA Solar Initiative)
– Incentives to install 3,000MW of solar-electric – To obtain incentives must also meet efficiency requirements
• 33% RPS by 2020 for IOUs & POUs
– Investor-owned utilities now required by law to meet 20% renewables by 2010 – Many publicly-owned utilities have similar policies
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Preliminary Recommendation
Industrial Sources
• Require efficiency and co-benefit audit of largest industrial sources
– Evaluate potential to reduce GHG, criteria pollutants, and air toxics
• Audit results used to identify cost-effective GHG reductions that also reduce criteria or toxic pollutants
– Co-benefits to nearby residents
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Preliminary Recommendation
High GWP Gases
• Used in refrigerators, air conditioners, fire suppression and insulating foam
– More potent greenhouse gases
• Possible approaches:
– Fees to discourage leakage or disposal – Standards to prevent leakage – Recovery and proper destruction of high GWP “banks”
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Preliminary Recommendation
Recycling and Waste
• Reduce landfill methane
– Board consideration expected January 2009
• Broad approach also needed to move toward zero-waste future
– Waste diversion – Composting – Commercial recycling – Manufacturer responsibility requirements
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Preliminary Recommendation
Other Sectors
• Forests - Sequestration through sustainable management
– Encourage use of forest biomass for energy generation, etc.
• Agriculture – Encourage investment in manure digesters, evaluate for mandate
– Conduct research on nitrogen fertilizers – Encourage efficiency measures
• Water – Efficiency to reduce energy use
– Water use efficiency, recycling, etc. – Increase renewable energy production – Public goods charge to fund water efficiency/recycling
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Preliminary Recommendation
Local Government Actions and Regional GHG Targets
• Develop regional targets in collaborative process
– Comprehensive process – Consider other policy goals – Incorporate performance indicators – Provide state resources
• Encourage local climate action plans and local targets
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Under Evaluation
Other Measures Under Evaluation
• Transportation
– Market-based strategies
• Electricity/Energy
– More aggressive efficiency programs – Reduce coal-fired electricity
• Industry
– Refineries – Cement production – Glass manufacturing – Boilers and stationary engines
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Under Evaluation
Program Design
• Offsets
– Surplus reductions from unregulated or uncapped – Voluntary Offsets – Compliance Offsets – Public Goods Charge – Administration – California Carbon Trust – Other potential uses
• • • • • •
• Carbon Fee
• Potential Use of Revenue
Support AB 32 reduction goal Achieve environmental co-benefits Incentives & consumer rebates Climate change adaptation RD&D Worker transition assistance, etc.
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Evaluations
Potential Economic Impacts
Preliminary Evaluation
• Overall savings from Plan expected, mainly from measures increasing efficiency
• e.g., Pavley regulation will save average of $30/month per car
• Additional analyses in progress
• Conducting macro-economic modeling using EDRAM and BEAR • California models used to evaluate changes in: output, employment, income, prices, consumer spending
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Evaluations
Environmental/ Public Health Analysis
• Examine in the context of ARB’s traditional public health programs
– Criteria pollutants and Toxics
• Expect statewide reductions in fossil fuel use and improved combustion efficiency • Assessment of environmental impact of proposed measures
– Air, water, land, waste disposal and hazardous waste, biological resources
• Public health impacts based on environmental assessment • Focused look at specific types of sources
– Refineries and power plants
• Community-level emission analysis
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Evaluations
Societal Impacts
• Evaluation required when regulations are adopted
– Intend to evaluate preliminary recommendation
• Consider factors such as:
– Energy diversity, mobility, regressivity and job creation
• Will also consider ways to direct public and private investment toward most disadvantaged communities
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A Vision for the Future
Moving Toward 2050
A Clean Energy Future
• Governor’s Executive Order (S-03-05)
– 80% reduction of GHG from 1990 levels by 2050
• Scoping Plan beyond 2020:
– Clean and secure energy sources – Sustainable, safe, and clean communities
• Right Trajectory?
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Next Steps
Scoping Plan Implementation
• ARB initiating a fee regulation rulemaking this summer to fund AB 32 administrative costs • Two years to adopt AB 32 measures
– Regulatory development will follow normal public process – Extensive stakeholder outreach and involvement
• Implementation and enforcement critical • ARB must monitor implementation • Required to re-visit Scoping Plan in 5 years
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Draft Scoping Plan
Local Government Role…
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Important Role of Local Government
• Achieving the goals of AB32 will require a strong partnership between State, Regional and Local governments. • Local governments have led the way on climate policy. • Local government decisions have significant direct and indirect impact on greenhouse gas emissions.
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Scoping Plan: Local Government Actions and Regional Targets
• Regional Transportation-related Greenhouse Gas Targets
– Preliminary estimate of at least 2MMT CO2e in 2020
• Local Government Actions
– Will provide significant emission reductions – Not quantified at this time
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Local Government Actions
• Community energy • Community waste and recycling • Community water and wastewater systems • Community transportation • Community design
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Local Climate Action Plans
Develop tools and support system:
• ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • CA Climate Action Registry • Institute for Local Government – California Climate Action Network • Local Government Commission
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Transportation GHG
Vehicle Technology
Fuels GHG Gallon
Vehicle Use
Transp. GHG =
GHG Mile
,
,
VMT
AB 1493 Regulation
Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
Transp. & Land Use Strategies
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On-Road Transportation Sources 2020
Passenger Vehicles
~ 160 MMTCO2E
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Passenger Vehicles 76% Heavy Duty Vehicles 24%
~ 50 MMTCO2E
*Preliminary ARB GHG Projections for 2020
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Reaching 2020 Goals
160% 150%
Percent of 1990 Levels
140% 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 1990 2000 2010 2020
With Pavley I & II
With Pavley I & II, and low-carbon fuel standard
Drivers of VMT Reduction
Integrated Strategies
Land Use Alternate Mode Infrastructure
Density Diversity Design Destinations
Transit Carpool/Vanpool Bike Pricing Signals Walk Cost per mile Cost per gallon Parking costs Congestion relief costs
Transportation Conservation
Education Incentives to drive less TDM Programs
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Potential VMT Impacts of Land Use Strategies
Community type Auto-oriented Suburban Smarter Growth Surburban Urban
Household VMT/year 28,000 + 17,000 – 23,000 10,000 – 16,000
Source: ARB-sponsored research, 1995. Many studies over last decade have shown similar results.
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Land Use: A Long-Term Strategy That Must Begin Now
• Land use strategies mostly impact new growth; benefits accumulate • Population: +13% by 2020; +40% by 2040 • Multiple benefits:
– – – – – Options to increasingly expensive car travel More access to jobs, services, affordable housing Less land used; more open space More physical activity; improved health Improved water/air quality
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Scoping Plan Recommendation: Regional Targets • Set regional transportation-related GHG targets • How are targets envisioned to be reached?
– Use Blueprint framework to create vision to reach targets – Work to align general plans and RTP with Blueprint to reach target – Establish enabling structure to support local actions
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– In partnership with regional and local governments
Enabling Structure for Local Actions
• • • • • Exercise State leadership Pursue funding sources and allocate effectively Improve measurement through partnerships Promote high-quality, low-impact communities Identify funding sources for local level GHG reduction strategies • Adopt proven measures • Amend CEQA guidelines to account for GHG emissions • Conduct outreach and engage the public
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Measures Under Evaluation
• Congestion Pricing • Pay-As-You-Drive (PAYD) Insurance Premiums • Indirect Source Rules for New Development • Programs to Reduce Vehicle Trips
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Actions Can Begin Now
• Sustainable community plans • Local climate action plans • Blueprint processes • CEQA mitigation • Individual actions to reduce GHGs
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For Additional Information:
• ARB Climate Change Web Site
(To stay informed - sign up for list serve)
www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm • California Climate Change Portal www.climatechange.ca.gov • Comments on the Draft Scoping Plan
www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/spcomment.htm
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