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									 CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IN
AFRICA WITH FOCUS ON THE GREATER
HORN OF AFRICA, PARIS, 20 JANUARY
               2009

           Bwango Apuuli
     IGAD Climate Prediction and
     Applications Centre (ICPAC)
                 OUTLINE
• Introduction
• Climate change and natural resources
• Past, present climate migrations and conflicts
• Future climate change scenarios for the region
• Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate
  change
• Adaptation strategies at national and regional
  levels
• Conclusion
     10 GHA Countries

    30


                Sudan                          Eritrea
    20


                                                   Djibouti
    10



    Ethiopia
     0
                                                    Somalia
    -10
    Uganda
    -20
                                                Kenya
Rwanda      Burundi
    -30                                       Tanzania
          -10    0   10   20   30   40   50
          INTRODUCTION

• GHA prone to extreme climate events
  such as droughts and floods with severe
  negative impacts on key socio-economic
  sectors.
• More than half of the region is classified
  as Arid or Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs)
• Most livelihoods tied to climate sensitive
  natural resources
• Shared natural resources
     INTRODUCTION CONTD

• Rain-fed agriculture
• The droughts are often associated with lack
  of pasture, food, water, energy, loss of
  society livelihoods, etc
• Climate extremes lead to
  1. loss of life and property
  2. forced large-scale population displacement
  3. poverty
  4. Other miseries
    INTRODUCTION CONT…

Consequences
  1. the region has experienced conflicts ranging
     from interstate tensions
  2. interstate conflicts
  3. cross border community conflicts over limited
     water, grazing land
  4. Food insecurity
Forced migration due to conflict
Scarcity in pasture leading to conflict
Climate change, natural resources
          and security
Climate Change significantly affects security in
  three distinct ways
Warming and drying in some regions – will
  reduce agricultural potential and undermine
  ‘ecosystem services’
Increase in extreme weather events – floods
  and drought resulting into migration
Sea level rise – submerge low lying coastal
  areas resulting to permanent relocation
Failed harvest caused by floods
Floods often follow or precede droughts
Migration with livestock due to drought
                    DROUGHT IMPACTS

Reduced Crop production




                                Starvation due to lack of Rainfall




Loss of Livestock
Past and present changes in natural resources
           and livelihood patterns
• Effects of future climate change on agriculture
  may be evaluated by using analogues of climate
  conditions that occur in the present time, such
  as current periods of drought and floods.
• Maps below show effects of the 2001 drought
  on the vegetation conditions in Africa.
  Vegetation condition measured by vegetation
  health (VH - index).
• Source: NOAA/NESDIS;
  http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/.
    Analogues: Drought, Floods




Africa vegetation health (VH - index)
Vegetation health: Red – stressed, Green – fair, Blue – favorable
Source: NOAA/NESDIS
                                    Trends in rainfall patterns

                                                                                                                                                                                                      1000
                                                                                                  Kenya/Tanzania Border (March-May)                                                                   900
                                                                                                                                                                                                      800
                                                                                                  Average                                                                                             700
                                                                                                  Linear (Kenya/Tanzania Border (March-                                                               600
                                                                                                  May))                                                                                               500




                                                                                                                                                                                                             RFE (mm)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      400
                                                                                                                                                                                                      300
                                                                                                                                                                                                      200
                                                                                                      Years
                                                                                                                                                                                                      100
                                                                                                                                                                                                      0
              1981




                                                                                    1991
1979

       1980



                     1982

                            1983

                                   1984

                                          1985

                                                 1986

                                                        1987

                                                               1988

                                                                      1989

                                                                             1990



                                                                                           1992

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                                                                                                           1994

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                                                                                                                                                            2001
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                                                                                                                                                                   2002

                                                                                                                                                                          2003

                                                                                                                                                                                 2004

                                                                                                                                                                                        2005

                                                                                                                                                                                               2006
       Declining maize production per capita
Source: FEWSnet




   Pop~33M (2005) and Growth Rate ~ 2.56%
          Multiple Interactions
• Climate change is one stress among many
  affecting agriculture and the population that
  depends on it
     – Integration of results is essential to formulate
       assessments relevant to policy
•   Potential future consequences depend on:
     – The region and the agricultural system -Where?
     – The magnitude [How much? Scenarios are
       important.]
     – The socioeconomic response [What happens in
       response to change? Adaptive capacity (internal
  CLIMATE EXTREMES: WILL THE
       PATTERNS CHANGE


                                      Hot & cold spells     Droughts
Causes                                      River basin flooding
El Niño /                  Tropical cyclones
                                            Heavy precipitations
                       Storm surges
LA Niña                                       (rain or snow)
                     Ice Storms        Storm (winds)
             Dust storms   Wildland fires
     Hail&Lightning           & haze
                  Mud & landslides
Flash floods
             Avalanches
   Tornadoes
          Adaptation Strategies
•   National Level include
•   Water harvesting
•   Irrigation
•   Drought/pest resistant crops
•   Reforestation
•   Energy efficiency e.g. stoves
•   Use of renewable energy e.g. solar, wind
   Adaptation Strategies Cont…
• Regional Level include harmonization of
  policies e.g. power pooling, EAC water
  release policy on L. Victoria & its basin
• Regulation e.g. fishing between Kenya &
  Uganda on L. Victoria (Migingo Island)
• Optimum use & protection of trans-
  boundary waters e.g. River Nile
 Consequences for EU-Africa Relations

• Devlpmt resources will continue to be
  diverted to CRM
• EU will be expected to support progms for
  CRM
• EU will be expected to continue to support
  CC adaptation in Africa: appropriate
  technologies, GMES, NAPAs
               Conclusion
• Climate change will get worse with more
  frequent and severe extreme events such
  as droughts, floods
• Exacerbate conflicts, famine, food
  insecurity
• Govts need to adopt appropriate policies
  to support adaptation
• Mainstream climate change adaptation into
  national planning

								
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