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CLIMATE CHANGE AND SECURITY IN
AFRICA WITH FOCUS ON THE GREATER
HORN OF AFRICA, PARIS, 20 JANUARY
2009
Bwango Apuuli
IGAD Climate Prediction and
Applications Centre (ICPAC)
OUTLINE
• Introduction
• Climate change and natural resources
• Past, present climate migrations and conflicts
• Future climate change scenarios for the region
• Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate
change
• Adaptation strategies at national and regional
levels
• Conclusion
10 GHA Countries
30
Sudan Eritrea
20
Djibouti
10
Ethiopia
0
Somalia
-10
Uganda
-20
Kenya
Rwanda Burundi
-30 Tanzania
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
INTRODUCTION
• GHA prone to extreme climate events
such as droughts and floods with severe
negative impacts on key socio-economic
sectors.
• More than half of the region is classified
as Arid or Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs)
• Most livelihoods tied to climate sensitive
natural resources
• Shared natural resources
INTRODUCTION CONTD
• Rain-fed agriculture
• The droughts are often associated with lack
of pasture, food, water, energy, loss of
society livelihoods, etc
• Climate extremes lead to
1. loss of life and property
2. forced large-scale population displacement
3. poverty
4. Other miseries
INTRODUCTION CONT…
Consequences
1. the region has experienced conflicts ranging
from interstate tensions
2. interstate conflicts
3. cross border community conflicts over limited
water, grazing land
4. Food insecurity
Forced migration due to conflict
Scarcity in pasture leading to conflict
Climate change, natural resources
and security
Climate Change significantly affects security in
three distinct ways
Warming and drying in some regions – will
reduce agricultural potential and undermine
‘ecosystem services’
Increase in extreme weather events – floods
and drought resulting into migration
Sea level rise – submerge low lying coastal
areas resulting to permanent relocation
Failed harvest caused by floods
Floods often follow or precede droughts
Migration with livestock due to drought
DROUGHT IMPACTS
Reduced Crop production
Starvation due to lack of Rainfall
Loss of Livestock
Past and present changes in natural resources
and livelihood patterns
• Effects of future climate change on agriculture
may be evaluated by using analogues of climate
conditions that occur in the present time, such
as current periods of drought and floods.
• Maps below show effects of the 2001 drought
on the vegetation conditions in Africa.
Vegetation condition measured by vegetation
health (VH - index).
• Source: NOAA/NESDIS;
http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/.
Analogues: Drought, Floods
Africa vegetation health (VH - index)
Vegetation health: Red – stressed, Green – fair, Blue – favorable
Source: NOAA/NESDIS
Trends in rainfall patterns
1000
Kenya/Tanzania Border (March-May) 900
800
Average 700
Linear (Kenya/Tanzania Border (March- 600
May)) 500
RFE (mm)
400
300
200
Years
100
0
1981
1991
1979
1980
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Declining maize production per capita
Source: FEWSnet
Pop~33M (2005) and Growth Rate ~ 2.56%
Multiple Interactions
• Climate change is one stress among many
affecting agriculture and the population that
depends on it
– Integration of results is essential to formulate
assessments relevant to policy
• Potential future consequences depend on:
– The region and the agricultural system -Where?
– The magnitude [How much? Scenarios are
important.]
– The socioeconomic response [What happens in
response to change? Adaptive capacity (internal
CLIMATE EXTREMES: WILL THE
PATTERNS CHANGE
Hot & cold spells Droughts
Causes River basin flooding
El Niño / Tropical cyclones
Heavy precipitations
Storm surges
LA Niña (rain or snow)
Ice Storms Storm (winds)
Dust storms Wildland fires
Hail&Lightning & haze
Mud & landslides
Flash floods
Avalanches
Tornadoes
Adaptation Strategies
• National Level include
• Water harvesting
• Irrigation
• Drought/pest resistant crops
• Reforestation
• Energy efficiency e.g. stoves
• Use of renewable energy e.g. solar, wind
Adaptation Strategies Cont…
• Regional Level include harmonization of
policies e.g. power pooling, EAC water
release policy on L. Victoria & its basin
• Regulation e.g. fishing between Kenya &
Uganda on L. Victoria (Migingo Island)
• Optimum use & protection of trans-
boundary waters e.g. River Nile
Consequences for EU-Africa Relations
• Devlpmt resources will continue to be
diverted to CRM
• EU will be expected to support progms for
CRM
• EU will be expected to continue to support
CC adaptation in Africa: appropriate
technologies, GMES, NAPAs
Conclusion
• Climate change will get worse with more
frequent and severe extreme events such
as droughts, floods
• Exacerbate conflicts, famine, food
insecurity
• Govts need to adopt appropriate policies
to support adaptation
• Mainstream climate change adaptation into
national planning
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