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From Iran to Morocco Development

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From Iran to Morocco Development Powered By Docstoc
					    From Iran to Morocco
Development Challenges in the
 Middle East and North Africa
  Qaiser Khan, Senior Economist,
          The World Bank
    Presented at Colby College
           April 21, 2003
Middle East & North Africa Region




                     Djibouti
                          Population of the Middle East
                           and North Africa, 1000-2035
             700,000,000



             600,000,000



             500,000,000
Population




             400,000,000



             300,000,000




             200,000,000



             100,000,000



                      0
                      1000   1100   1200   1300   1400   1500   1600   1700   1800   1900   2035

                                                    Year
                             Population Growth 2000-2030
                   120,000
Population 000's




                   100,000


                    80,000


                    60,000


                    40,000


                    20,000


                        0
                                 r           ti                  t
                                                                                                                  ya                                           a                       pt
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                                                                                                                                                                               ia
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                                                                                                                                                                                                  n
                          at             b           ra       w     m      U          st        an     rd       ib      ni      Sy              m        ra
                         Q             ji         ah         u     O               le                Jo
                                                                                                               L                              e                  ro       lg      E
                                     D                     K
                                                                                            Le
                                                                                               b                     Tu                   Y           i A Mo            A
                                                B                               Pa                                                                  ud
                                                                                                                                               Sa


                                                                    Population in 2000                        Projected Population in 2030
                     MENA Per Capita GDP, 1997
      Yemen         411

     Djibouti        802

       Syria          1,105

    Morocco           1,224

       Egypt          1,253

   Palestine              1,363
     Jordan               1,572
     Algeria               1,648
         Iran               1,943

     Tunisia                2,051

    Lebanon                         3,609

       Oman                                  6,939

Saudi Arabia                                  7,300

     Bahrain                                          8,884

       Qatar                                                     12,825
      Kuwait                                                                 16,596
         UAE                                                                           19,112
       OECD                                                                                              25,956


                0                    5,000            10,000        15,000            20,000    25,000            30,000
                                                          Per Capita GDP in US$
                Population living on less
                     than $1 a day

            % Share of Population          Million
  Region
              1987        1998        1987           1998
EAP               26.6        14.7       417.5          267.1
ECA                0.2          3.7        1.1           17.6
LAC               15.3        12.1        63.7           60.7
MENA               4.3          2.1        9.3            6.0
SA                44.9        40.0       474.4          521.8
SSA               46.6        48.1       217.2          301.6
      Total       28.3        23.4      1183.2         1174.9
  Source; WDI, 2000/2001
                         Population living on
                          less than $2 a day
           % Share of Population             Million
    Region
             1987        1998           1987           1998
EAP              67.0        48.7         1052.3          884.9
ECA               3.6        20.7           16.3           98.2
LAC              35.5        31.7          147.6          159.0
MENA             30.0        29.9           65.1           85.4
SA               86.3        83.9          911.0         1094.6
SSA              76.5        78.0          356.6          489.3
     Total       61.0        56.1         2549.0         2811.5
Source: WDI, 2000/2001
Projected Annual Growth in Real Per Capita
        GDP by Region, 2003-2010
7.0%

6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
                   EAP           SA         LAC          SSA        ECA   MENA

Source: Economic Policy and Prospects group, World Bank, Nov 2001
          Public Social Spending (% GDP)
                                                                                         SP
       Country              SP*           Health       Education         Total       spending
                                                                                    as % share
                                                                                      of Total
                                                                                     spending
Algeria                     9.9             2.8            6.1           18.8           51.3
Egypt                       6.8             1.8            5.4           14.0           49.3
Iran                        7.1             2.4            4.0           13.5           52.6
Jordan                      6.4             5.3            6.0           17.7           39.8
Lebanon                     0.9             2.2            3.7            6.8           14.8
Morocco                     4.4             1.2            5.5           11.1           39.3
Tunisia                     7.4             2.6            6.5           16.5           43.8
Yemen                       4.8             2.2            6.2           13.2           37.8
*Includes food subsidies, cash and in-kind transfers, public works, public pension, and housing
Source: Various World Bank reports and recent Social Safety Net Updates (1995-2000)
          Unemployment Rates by Region
    16

    14

    12

    10

%    8

     6

     4

     2

     0
          OECD           SSA   SA   MENA   LAC   ECA   EAP
    Source: World Bank
                Role of the World Bank
                                                  Conferences
 Shared Experiences
                       Policy Advice                Discussion
   Training



                      Borrowing countries
   Grants                Beneficiaries
   Credits               Private sector     Operational Analysis
                         Foundations
    Loans                                           Case Studies
                             NGOs
Bilateral Aid             Civil society                Research
Own Resources



     Financing                                    Analysis
        Role of the State in the
         Economy in MENA
 In most OECD countries the state plays a limited role in the
  economy outside the social sectors
 In MENA the state plays a major role (except Lebanon and
  possibly Tunisia and Morocco) and even in many countries
  where there is a large private sector – this has developed as
  a result of state favors as ruling groups distribute favors
  among supporters.
 The state led economy brought many early positives to the
  region but inefficiency has made them a burden.
 Apart from efficiency the state has focused on large capital
  intensive operations rather than the job creating small and
  medium enterprise with resulting high unemployment.
 The challenges is reducing the role of the direct and
  indirect role of the state in the economy and let a more
  dynamic private sector develop and create jobs.
 Types of Economies in MENA

 Low income countries under stress
  (Djibouti and Yemen)
 Middle Income Countries (e.g. Algeria,
  Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco,
  West Bank & Gaza, Syria, Tunisia)
 High Income Capital surplus economies
  (Bahrain, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar,
  Saudi Arabia and UAE)
 The Bank operates in all of them with the
  exception of Libya
         Trends in Infant Mortality,
     1970 to 1999 (per 1,000 live births)

                                                                 Reduction
Region                   1970          1990   1996   1997   1999 1990-99
EAP                        77            42     39     38     35   17%
ECA                        46            28     24     25     21   25%
LAC                        83            42     33     32     30   29%
MENA                      135            61     50     48     44   28%
SA                        138            87     …      77     74   15%
SSA                       132           100     91     90     92    8%
Dev. Countries            107            66     59     58     59   11%
OECD                       22             8      6      6      5   38%
Source: World Development Indicators
           Trends in Life Expectancy
            1970-1999 (years of life)

Region                        1970     1982   1993   1997   1999
EAP                             59       65     68     68     69
ECA                             67       68     69     69     69
LAC                             61       66     69     70     70
MENA                            53       60     66     67     68
SA                              49       55     60     62     63
SSA                             44       48     52     52     47
Dev. Countries                  55       61     65     65     64
OECD                            71       74     77     78     78
Source: World Development Indicators
                Infant Mortality Rates, 1999
        OECD
                     6
         UAE
                         8
      Bahrain
                         9
      Kuwait
                             11
       Oman
                                  17
        Qatar
                                  18
Saudia Arabia
                                   19
        Libya
                                       22
    Palestine
                                        23
      Tunisia
                                        24
         Iran
                                            26
      Jordan
                                            26
        Syria
                                            26
      Algeria
                                                  34
        Egypt
                                                            47
     Morocco
                                                            48
      Yemen
                                                                               79
         Iraq
                                                                                      101
      Djibouti
                                                                                            106

                 0                20                   40        60            80   100           120
                                                 Deaths per 1000 live births
                        Global Trends in Infant Mortality
                        180

                        160
                                                     Djibouti
                        140
Infant mortality rate




                        120
                                                                 Algeria
                        100                           Egypt
                         80
                                   Yemen                           Morocco
                         60
                                                                       Tunisia
                         40
                                                                         Lebanon
                         20

                          0
                                            Iran Palestine
                                                              Jordan
                              10     100          1000                 10000       100000
                                           per capita GDP, US$
                   Life Expectancy at Birth, 1999

    Djibouti                             47
     Yem en                                    56
       Iraq                                         59
      Egypt                                              67
   Morocco                                               67
       Syria                                                  69
   Lebanon                                                    70
      Libya                                                        71
        Iran                                                       71
     Algeria                                                       71
     Jordan                                                        71
  Palestine                                                        72
Saudi Arabia                                                       72
    Tunisia                                                             73
      Om an                                                             73
    Bahrain                                                             73
      Qatar                                                                  75
        UAE                                                                  75
     Kuw ait                                                                      77
      OECD                                                                        77


               0    10   20   30   40     50        60    70                       80   90
                                    Years
                    Renewable Water Resources
                       per Capita, by Region
                    20,000
 Cubic meters per
  capita per year




                    15,000

                    10,000

                     5,000

                        0
                             MENA     Africa          Asia   World

                               1960   1999     2025
Source: World Bank
            Mother’s Education
            and Infant Mortality
120
100   101
                 93
                                        Children of
 80                         76           educated
 60         57                           mothers
                                         are less
 40                                      likely to
                      32                 die
                                  22
 20
  0
      Yemen      Egypt     Morocco

       with no education
       with secondary education
                 Ratio of Girls to Boys in Primary &
                        Secondary Education
                                                                                          Ra t i o of gi r l s t o boy s i n pr i ma r y a nd
                                                                                                    se c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n



 120                                                                        120

               Iran, Islamic Rep.                                                                             Syrian A rab Republic
 100                                                                        100
                                                                                    Tunisia
  80     A lgeria                                                            80
                         Egypt, A rab Rep.

  60
                                                                             60          M o ro cco
       1990                   1999                     2008          2015
                                                                                  1990                    1999                     2008          2015


              R a t i o of gi r l s t o boy s i n pr i ma r y a nd                        R a t i o of gi r l s t o boy s i n pr i ma r y a nd
                        se c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n                                          se c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n


120
                                                                            110
               Jo rdan                                                                       Lebano n
100
       Saudi A rabia                                                        100
                                                                                    B ahrain
80
                                                                            90
               Djibo uti
                                                                                     Oman
60
                                                                            80
      1990                    1999                     2008          2015
                                                                                  1990                   1999                      2008          2015

  Source: UNESCO – World Bank SIMA MDG-MENA Website
                      10%
                            20%
                                  30%
                                        40%
                                                 50%
                                                       60%




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                                                             MENA Youth Illiteracy Rates
         MENA Adult Illiteracy Rates
         (% aged 15 & above, 1998)
80%

70%
                                         Female
                                         Male
60%

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                               S.
                  Female Genital Cutting
                                                   % Women who % Women who
   Source: Yemen Demographic & MCH survey 1997;   have undergone support FGC
   Egypt Demographic & Health Survey 1995;
   Djibouti MOH report for USAID FGC Symposium         FGC         practice
Egypt
                 Age              15-19                98           85
                                  20-29                98           83
                                  30-39                96           80
                                  40-49                97           81
     Residence                    Urban                94           70
                                  Rural                100          91
Yemen
           Age                   15-49                 23
     Residence                  Urban                  26
                                 Rural                 22
                                Coastal                69
Djibouti
                 Age              15-49                98
Regional HIV/AIDS Statistics and Features,
               End of 1999
                                                      Adults & Children       Adults & Children              Adult
                                   Epidemic               living with           newly infected           Prevalence
   Region                           Started                HIV/AIDS                with HIV                 Rate*
   Sub-Saharan                late 70s-early
   Africa                           80s                   24.5 million             4.0 million             8.57%

   North Africa &
   the Middle East                 late 80s                     220,000                  20,000            0.12%

   South & South-
   East Asia                       late 80s                5.6 million                  800,000            0.54%

   East Asia &
   Pacific                         late 80s                     530,000                 120,000            0.06%

                              late 70s-early
   Latin America                    80s                    1.3 million                  150,000            0.49%

                              late 70s-early
   Caribbean                        80s                         360,000                  60,000            2.11%

   Total                                                  34.3 million             5.4 million             1.07%
    * The proportion of adults (15 to 49 years of age) living with HIV/AIDS in 1999
    ** Hetero: heterosexual transmission – IDU: transmission through injecting drug use – MSM: sexual transmission
    among men who have sex with men
                      Reported AIDS cases per 100,000 in selected
                     countries in the MENA Region, with East African
                                       comparisons
                      350                                                                                                         347



                      300
                                                                                                                            275


                      250
AIDS cases/100,000




                      200


                      150


                      100
                                                                                                                      62

                       50
                                                                                     11.2 11.9 15.6       17.4
                                                                              7.1
                               0.4       0.5   1.2      1.3    2.9     3.2
                        0




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                                                                                                               Et
                                                                             Countries
   New HIV Infections in MENA

80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
   0
         1999               2000

           New HIV infections
  HIV Epidemic Levels in the MENA Region

Type 1: Extensive testing, consistently low rates, but no consistent,
        systematic testing (or reporting) of high-risk groups
         Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iraq

Type 2: Accumulating levels of infection; gradual and slow; some rapid
        increase in identified high-risk groups
         Iran, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Bahrain, UAE,
          Qatar, and Kuwait

Type 3: Very poor levels of information, apparently growing epidemic,
        probably concentrated in high-risk groups
         Libya, Algeria, Yemen

Type 4: High levels of HIV in general population, although solid
        epidemiological data are lacking
         Djibouti, Sudan

Source: OVERVIEW OF THE HIV/AIDS SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST and NORTH AFRICA REGION
      MENA Military vs. Health Expenditures
           as a Share of GDP, 1999

           14.0                                                                       13.2

           12.0
                                                    10.0                10.1
           10.0                                             9.4
                              8.3
% of GDP




            8.0
                  5.6                                                                        5.7
            6.0         5.0

                                      3.3                                      3.5
            4.0

            2.0

            0.0
                  Yemen       Kuwait                 Jordan               Oman       Saudi Arabia

                                    Military expenditures    Health expenditures

				
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