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丕賴丿丕賮 丕賱丕賱賮賷丞 賮賷 丕賱亘賱丿丕賳 丕賱毓乇亘賷丞 Powered By Docstoc
					MDGs and poverty in the
   Arab countries

                Poverty CoP
                   Tunisia
                17 June 2005

          Prepared by: Adib Nehmeh
Sub-regional Resource Facility for Arab States
                 SURF-AS
                   UNDP
  Part one

MDGs, General
considerations
    Two directional relationship
 MDGs are a strong political and advocacy tool.
  Donors countries use it as a criteria to allocate
  their international aid to developing counties.
  The latter and the international community can
  also use them in the other direction to monitor
  the commitment of donors, and the compatibility
  of international policies with MDGs.
 This relationship must not be limited to aids:
  MDGs must be used as a tool to assess
  international policies and as a tool for
  multilateral and bilateral negotiations.
    Are MDGS adequate to measure
           development?
 The choice of MDGs and their indicators reflects
  the priority given to LDCs by international
  community. Their needs represented the most
  urgent global priorities, and were intensively
  present when identifying MDGs. That’s why
  many countries of intermediate level of
  development felt that MDGs does not
  adequately reflect their national development
  context.
 Although this feeling is justified, it does not mean
  that MDGs are completely irrelevant. It rather
  means that these countries have to deal with
  them in a different way.
From national targets… to national strategy.

 MDGs do not constitute on their one a sufficient
  tool for formulating national policies. They are
  rather instrument for international comparison,
  and defining general goals and priorities.
 Regional and national actors have to formulate
  correspondent regional and national targets, and
  translate them into development strategies,
  plans of action, and projects.
 Intraregional cooperation plays a major role in
  reaching MDGs, and so the tripartite partnership
  between government, civil society and private
  sector at the national level.
            About recipes
     MDGs    are not recipes.

 Dealing smartly with MDGs Goals,
Targets & Indicators, and uncovering
   their specific significance for a
    specific national context, is a
  necessary to identify priorities an
   design interventions properly.
     Part two

MDGs based strategy
       MDG policy planning
         Core principles

 NationallyOwned
 Demand-Based
 Coordinated at the country level
 Evidence-Based
 Outcome-Based

 In fragile states and post-crisis countries, this
  approach will be adapted to the local
  institutional situation to promote stability.
          MDGs based strategy

 The  MDGs are long-term objectives that
  need to be embodied in the strategic
  priorities for national development.
 The alignment of the country’s strategic
  plan with the MDG agenda involves one
  methodological and four practical steps;
  only one relates to MDG costing and
  foreign aid.
                The 5 steps
   1-Setting a vision: where to situate MDGs vis a
    vis the national development strategy.
   2- Tailoring the global targets to make them
    context-sensitive.
   3- Setting intermediate targets for political
    accountability.
   4- Translating the targets into specific
    programs and policies for the next 2-3 years.
   5- Costing these programs and policies to
    inform the annual budget and aid negotiations.
   Step one: Setting a vision
General framework… or priorities?
 For LDCs, where poverty incidence is high, and
  education and health indicators and basic
  development are low, MDGs can constitute the
  general framework for a national development
  strategy.
 For intermediate level countries, MDGs
  represent an efficient tool to identify priorities
  within the national development strategy,
  especially the eradication of pockets of extreme
  poverty, narrowing the regional or social
  disparities regarding basic development
  indicators, addressing environmental problems,
  and adopting efficient pro-poor macro-economic
  policies.
     Step two: Tailoring the global
                targets.
 Setting meaningful targets requires adaptation, not
  mindless adoption of global targets.
 The global targets were set on the premise that global
  progress observed over the past 25 years would
  continue for the next 25 years.
 The question whether we are on-track to meeting the
  MDGs by 2015 is valid only at the global level. It cannot
  be asked for any specific region or particular country. By
  using a uniform yardstick, several success stories will be
  reported as failures because they will not meet the global
  benchmark.
 The fear that country-specific targets will undermine the
  global targets is unfounded.
                (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
 Step three: Setting intermediate
             targets.
 The  MDG agenda must be linked to the
 political agenda of today’s government.
 Targets for 2015 are unlikely to register
 with the current political leaders because
 the deadline will not occur on their watch.
 Intermediate targets are needed to
 generate and sustain momentum at the
 country level, and to ensure political
 accountability.
           (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
Step four: Translate targets into 2-3
           years program
   Actionable propositions and specific reforms
    over the next 2-3 years must be defined to
    realise the intermediate targets. They range
    from immunising children to iodising salt, training
    teachers and building schools, drilling boreholes
    and planting trees, treating HIV/Aids patients
    and distributing bed nets, enforcing laws against
    gender discrimination and child labour,
    abolishing user fees for basic social services,
    enlarging tax revenue in an equitable way,
    restructuring budgetary spending in favour of the
    poor, and sequencing home grown economic,
    financial and trade policies.
                (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
Step five: Costing to inform annual
   budget and aid negotiations
   The price tag of the MDGs will critically depend on
    strategic choices about pro-poor policies and the delivery
    of basic social services. Generic drugs, for instance, are
    less expensive than brand-name medicines; day schools
    are less costly than boarding schools; community-driven
    initiatives are less pricey than institutional approaches.
    Some interventions combine low cost with high impact.
    Each strategic choice has a different unit cost and a
    different cost function.
   Selecting the appropriate options will typically reduce the
    cost of the MDG agenda. But only the national
    stakeholders can do so within the national context, and
    within the country’s own development strategy and its
    macroeconomic and sectoral policy frameworks. There
    cannot be an one-size-fits-all costing exercise.

                    (Quoted from a contribution by Jan Vandemoortele)
       Part three

About poverty measurement
    Low poverty incidence in AS
 International reports state that the poverty
  incidence in the Arab region (measured at less
  than $1/day-ppp per capita) varies between
  2.5% and 3.5% of the total population. This is
  the lowest rate among all regions of the world.
 Most experts, policy makers and concerned
  citizens are not convinced by this estimate.
 This estimate sends the misleading message
  that the fight against poverty is not a
  developmental priority for the Arab states.
                  Because..
   The $1/day measure is not relevant – in
    general – as a poverty measure or poverty line
    for most Arab countries that belong either to
    the high or medium development/income
    countries.
   % of population getting less than the minimum
    required daily calorie intake is higher than the
    % of population living at less than 1$/day, what
    means that the latter does not reflect extreme
    poverty which is closely related to hunger.
             … and because
   When calculating the incidence of poverty
    according to a poverty line of $2/day per
    capita, the poverty figures rise dramatically
    from 2-3% to 30% This increase givers raises
    serious questions about the relevance of the
    $1/day poverty line for the region.
   There are very important discrepancies
    between Arab countries in terms of the level of
    income and development, and socio-economic
    status. Using the same poverty lines, the same
    tools and methodologies to measure poverty
    are not standing on a solid scientific basis. In
    this context, regional aggregates are very
    misleading, as they do not reflect the real
    situation individual countries.
        International v/s national
              poverty lines

 The international poverty line of $1/day is
 meant to facilitate international
 comparisons and for ranking purposes. It
 is not meant to be a substitute for national
 poverty lines, which are more relevant for
 orienting the establishment of national
 poverty or development policies.
       Issues related to national
             poverty lines
   Differences related to the definition of poverty (income
    poverty, human poverty…).
   Differences of approaches and methods: statistical
    field survey, Participatory Poverty Study, …etc.
   Differences related to the definition and measurement
    of the national poverty lines: absolute or relative
    poverty line; based on income or expenditure; what is
    the minimum calorie intake adopted; what are the
    components of the food and non-food baskets of
    essential goods; how many national or regional
    poverty line are going to be calculated?...
   Problems related to the availability and quality of data:
    Some data may be missing, or data series may be
    missing for certain years for some indicators
        Regional comparison

 The harmonization of the definitions of poverty,
  and measurement methodologies, and available
  statistical data is a precondition to make
  scientific and solid regional comparison.
 Unfortunately this is not the case in the region.
  Regional aggregates and poverty comparison
  between countries on the bases of national
  poverty lines, must be handled very carefully.
           Approach of Regional
           MDGR for Arab states
   Despite these weaknesses, the use of national
    poverty lines is still more relevant option to
    prepare the regional MDGR. Two main
    principles were followed:

 The adoption of national poverty lines as stated
  in national MDGRs;
 The adoption of the division of the Arab
  countries into 4 sub-regions: GCCs, Mashreq,
  Maghreb and LDCS.
                Sub-regions of
                 Arab states
   The Arab leagues comprises 22 Arab countries.
    The regional MDGR proposes to classify them
    according to 4 sub-regions:
   GCCs: Bahrain, KSA, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE &
    Oman (6 countries)
   Mashreq: Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, Iraq, Syria &
    Lebanon (6 countries)
   Maghreb: Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia (4
    countries)
   LDCs: Comoros, Djibouti, Mauritania, Sudan,
    Somalia, Yemen (6 countries)
         Available data by source
                                    GCCs   Mashreq Maghreb   LDCs   Arab
                                                                    States

# of MDGRs

1$/day # of observations
       Population     represented
       (% ot total)
2$/day # of observations
       Population     represented
       (% ot total)
Nation # of observations
al PL  Population represented
       (% ot total)
HPI    # of observations
       Population     represented
       (% ot total)
              Global sources
           Poverty Incidence (%)
          1$/day- - By Sub-Region


8                               7.3
7
6
5
4                                           3.4
              3.0
3
                         2
2
1
0
    GCC     Mashreq   Maghreb   LDCs   Arab Countries
                MDGRs:
Poverty incidence – 1$/day – by sub-region 2000

    25

                                   19.2
    20


    15


    10
                                            7.6
                 5.6
     5                     2.9
          0
     0
         GCC   Mashreq   Maghreb   LDCs     Arab
                                          Countries
               Global sources
            Poverty Incidence (%)
           2$/day- - By Sub-Region

50                                46.7
45             41.3
40
35                                         31.5
30
25
20
                         13.6
15
10
5
0
     GCC      Mashreq   Maghreb   LDCs     Arab
                                         Countries
         Global Sources
      HPI (%) - By Sub-Region


40                              36.3
35
30           25.7       26
                                            23.6
25
20   17.5
15
10
 5
 0
     GCC    Mashreq   Maghreb   LDCs   Arab Countries
              0
                  10
                           20
                                         30
                                                        40
                                                                     50
                                                                             60
  Bahrain

    Kuwait

    Oman




                                                31.5
     Qatar

      KSA




                           15.8
      UAE

     Egypt
                                                30.9
       Iraq

   Jordan



                  7.2
 Lebanon
                   9.5
 Palestine

     Syria
                         13.7




   Algeria
                                  21.9




     Lybia
                                         25.3
                                                                                   Global Sources




  Moroco
                                                       34.5




   Tunisia
                                                                                  HPI (%) - By Country




                                19.2




Comorros
                                                31.4




  Djibouti
                                                       34.4




Mauritania
                                                                      48.3




  Somalia

    Sudan
                                                31.6




   Yemen
                                                              40.3
            Global sources
Poverty Incidences (%)- By Sub-Region

50                                                                   46.7
                          41.3                               42.2
40                                                                         36.3

30                           25.7                       26

20      17.5   16.4                   14.5       13.6
10                                                              7.3
                      3                      2
 0
     GCCs        Mashreq                   Naghreb                  LDCs

                          NPL    1$   2$     HPI
   Ba
     hr
       ai
          n
              (2




                                 10
                                         20
                                              30
                                                   40
                                                        50
                                                                 60
                                                                       70




                           0
                00
              Ku 3)




                               0
                 wa
                    i
               O t
                 m
                   a
               Q n
                 at
                   ar
                KS
                    A
                 UA
      Eg            E
        yp
          t(
                 20
                   00
   Jo
       rd              )




                                     7
 Le a n Ira
    ba (2 q
 Pa no 00
    l e n ( 2)
       s t 20


                                4
           ine 0
               (2 1)
                  00
                     2
                 Sy )
   Al               ria
       ge
                               0.3
           ria
               (2
                                                                                                                         MGDrs




                  00
  M                  0
      or
         o       Ly )
                                 5



   Tu c o ( bia
        nis 19
             ia 98)
Co             (2
                  00
                               0.7




   m                 0)
      or
          ro
   D s
M ji bo (20
 au ut 0 0
     ri t i (2 )
         a
                                                                      60




  So nia 002
      m         (2 )
 Su ali a 00 0
      d a (2 )
          n       0
                                                          46.3




   Ye (20 02)
        m        0
            en 2/3
               (1 )
                                                                            Poverty Incidence (%) - 1$/day- By country




                                                        43.2




                  99
                     8)
                                      10.7
   Bh




                  0
                      10
                                        30
                                             40
                                                  50
                                                           60
                                                                 70
      ara
          in




                      20 11
      Eg
          yp
             t
   Jo
       rda
 Le         n




                                17 14
    ba
        no
 Pa         n




                       7
    les
        tin
            e
                                                                60



      Sy
           ria



                             11.4
    Al
         ge
            ria
  Mo
       roc
            co
   Tu
                            10 9.9

      n   isi
              a
                      4.2
                                                                                MDGRs:




 Co
   mo
          ro
             s
                                                                60




  Dj
     ibo
Ma       uti
                                                  42




   uri
       tan
           ia
 So
                                                    46.3




     ma
         lia
    Su
                                                  43.2




        da
            n
   Ye
        me
            n
                                                                      National PL – by country 2000

                                                    50 47
                  MDGRs:
National PL – by sub-region 2000


60
                               48.2
50
40
30                                    23
20           17
                       9.2
10
0
     GCC   Mashrek   Maghreb   LDC    AS
                     MDGRs:
National PL – Trend by sub-region
50                                   47.1
45
40
35
30
                                  24.8                 1990
25         21.6
                                                       2000
20            15.7                          16.416.8
15
                            9.1
10                    7.3
 5
 0
     GCC   Mashrek    Maghreb      LDC        AS
                MDGRs:
     National PL – Trend by country
70
                                                                                                                                    60
60                                                                                                                          54.7
                                                                                                                                                          56.6
                                                                                                                                                                  50.5
50                                                                                                                                                                   46.3                47
                                                                                                                                                   42
40

30   24
                           21
             19                                                                                                                                                                  19.1
20                  17
                                  14 13.2                       14.1           12.5
                                         11.4                           10                    9.9
                                                         8                                                                                 9.6
10                                                                                     7             6.7 6.2
                                                                                                                    4.2

 0
     1990
             1995
                    2000
                           1990
                                   2000
                                          1996
                                                  2004


                                                         1988
                                                                 1995
                                                                        2000
                                                                                1984
                                                                                       1990
                                                                                              1998
                                                                                                      1990
                                                                                                             1995
                                                                                                                     2000




                                                                                                                             1995
                                                                                                                                    2000
                                                                                                                                            1996
                                                                                                                                                   2000
                                                                                                                                                           1990
                                                                                                                                                                   1996
                                                                                                                                                                          2000
                                                                                                                                                                                  1992
                                                                                                                                                                                         1998
            Egypt          Jordan                Syria       Algeria             Morocco                        Tunisia     Comoros Djibouti Mautitania Yemen
             Global sources:
       Under 5 Underweight – 99/03

45.0
                                   39.3
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
                                          13.5
15.0
10.0             8.1
                           5.5
 5.0
 0.0
         GCC   Mashreq   Maghreb   LDCs   AS
     Global sources:
Under 5 Underweight - trend

45
                                        39.6 39.3
40
35
30
25                                                               90/93
                                        19.1                     95/98
20                                                        13.5
     14.6                                              14.8
15          10.5                                    11.7         99/03
                   9.78.1   9.18.9
10                                5.5
 5
 0
     GCC      Mashreq       Maghreb      LDCs          AS
                              0
                              5
                             10
                             15
                             20
                             25
                             30
                             35
                             40
                             45
                             50
                  Bahrain




                                8.7
                   Kuwait
                    Oman
                    Qatar
                     KSA




GCC Countries
                     UAE
                    GCC
                    Egypt

                                   8.6
                      Iraq
                   Jordan    4.4
                 Lebanon




Mashreq
                 Palestine
                             3.5



                    Syria
                 Mashreq
                              6




                  Algeria
                   Lybia
                  Moroco
                             4
                                                                  Global sources:




Maghreb


                  Tunisia
                 Maghreb
                Comorros
                                         25.4




                  Djibouti
                Mauritania
                                         31.8




LDCs




                 Somalia
                                            25.8




                  Sudan
                                                          Under 5 Underweight – by country




                  Yemen
                                                   45.6
             Global sources:
Malnourished population (%)- by sub-region



35.0
                                  28.9
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
                                         9.5
10.0                      5.0
       3.6      3.7
 5.0
 0.0
       GCCS   Mashreq   Maghreb   LDCs   AS
                       Global sources:
Malnourished population (%)- tend by sub-region

  35
                                                 31.2
                                                       28.9
  30                                                26.9
  25

  20

  15
                                                              10 9 9.5
  10
       6.1
             4.2 3.6   4.5 3.7 3.7   4.6 5 5.0
   5

   0
        GCCS           Mashreq       Maghreb       LDCs         AS

                         1991         1996       2001
                Global sources:
     Malnourished population (%)- by country

40                                                                                                                                                                                                       36.0
35
30                                                                                                                                                                                              27.0
25
20
15                                                                                                                                                                      10.0
10              5                                                        7                                                     7.0
                            3 2 3                                                 3                4 5.0
 5    0                 0 0       0                                                        0                         1.0                 1.0 0.0 0.0                                  0.0
 0




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Yemen
                                                                                                                                         Tunisia
               Kuwait




                                                                                                  Syrian
                                               United




                                                                                 Lebanon




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sudan
     Bahrain




                                                                                                                      Libyan




                                                                                                                                                                         Mauritania
                                                        Egypt




                                                                                                                                                             Djibouti
                        Oman




                                                                Iraq
                                                                        Jordan




                                                                                                           Algeria




                                                                                                                                                                                      Somalia
                                       Saudi




                                                                                           Occ.
                               Qatar




                                                                                                                                                   Comoros
                        GCCS                                           Mashreq                                       Maghreb   Morocco                                   LDCs
    Part three

Tailoring targets and
selecting indicators
     (Highlights)
    How we deal with Goal one?
   Start by defining extreme poverty and poverty in
    your specific county taking into consideration the
    socio-economic characteristics;
   Look into the inter-linkages with other MDGs and
    targets,
   Adapt the goal and targets to national context,
   Set quantitative immediate and longer term
    targets
   Select the relevant indicators.
        Environment: basic services
   TARGET 10.HALVE BY 2015 THE PROPORTION OF PEOPLE WITHOUT SUSTAINABLE ACCESS
    TO SAFE DRINKING WATER AND SANITATION

   Indicators
   30. Proportion of population with sustainable access to an improved water source,
    urban and rural
   31. Proportion of urban and rural population with access to improved sanitation

   It is combined natural resource management, health and
    poverty issue.
   The target can be revised according to national context. The
    “normal” situation is that any person must have access to
    water and sanitation as part of its basic rights. The
    quantitative target here is trying to set a realistic and
    achievable objective considering the global context.
   In a country who have reached an acceptable level of
    development, and suffers from disparities and pockets of
    deprivation regarding these services/rights the national
    target might be to eradicate completely these pockets not
    halve them. The same logic applies to the time frame.
    Environment: slums and poverty?
   TARGET 11. BY 2020 TO HAVE ACHIEVED A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN
    THE LIVES OF AT LEAST 100 MILLION SLUM DWELLERS

   Indicators
   32. Proportion of households with access to secure tenure


   This target is strongly linked to poverty. In fact its
    draw the attention to the following:
       Not to limit our definition to poverty to material basic
        needs, but to include rights and governance issues
        such as land tenure.
       To include indicators on the immediate environment
        into the poverty measurement methodologies.

				
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