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Inequality, Institutions and
Long-Term Growth in Colombia
Michael Clemens
William Easterly
Carlos Esteban Posada
Banco de la República, Bogotá, Nov. 19, 2002
Growth since 1900
3.5%
Maddison 1913-1998
3.0%
Maddison 1950-1998
Summers & Heston 1950-1998
3.0%
2.5%
2.5%
2.3%
2.3%
2.5%
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0% 1.7%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
1.5%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.5%
0.0%
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Uruguay USA Venezuela
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Brazil 60.7
Colombia 57.1
Chile 56.7
Mexico 53.1
Venezuela 49.5
Peru 46.2
Costa Rica 45.9
Bolivia 44.7
Ecuador 43.7
Uruguay 42.3
United
40.8
States
Gini coefficients in the Americas
Gini coefficients in Colombia
GINI NACIONAL
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
DNP Londoño CEPAL
Urban Gini in Colombia
GINI URBANO
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
0.4
0.35
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
DNP Reyes CEPAL Londoño (No Agrícola)
New
Granada
1812
Fraction of European descent
• Colombia: New Granada, 1778 33.5%
• Colombia: Current borders, 1778 25.6%
• Guatemala, 1810 4.0%
• Brazil, 1798 31.1%
• Cuba, 1774 56.1%
• United States, 1790 80.7%
Fraction of European descent
• Colombia: Chocó province, 1778 2.2%
• Colombia: Cartagena province, 1777 11.7%
• Colombia: Antioquia province, 1778 17.2%
• Peru: Lambayeque province, 1789 12.9%
• Peru: Conchucos province, 1774 8.2%
• Argentina: B.A. Countryside, 1778 75.7%
• United States: South Carolina, 1790 56.3%
• United States: Massachusetts, 1790 98.6%
Fraction of European descent
• Colombia: Cartagena de Indias, 1777 31.2%
• Colombia: Santafé de Bogotá, 1778 28.7%
• Peru: Arequipa, 1796 59.6%
• Brazil: São Paulo, 1800 61.0%
• Argentina: Buenos Aires, 1778 66.8%
• United States: Charleston Co., 1790 23.0%
• United States: Suffolk Co., 1790 97.6%
Relative settlement and rainfall
1000
900 Choco
Average rainfall in rainiest month (mm), log scale
800
700
600
Colon
500
Vichada
Veraguas
400 Santande
Morona-S
300 Tolima
Magdalen Panama
Bolivar Huila
200
Guajira Cauca
Pichinch
Antioqui N de San
Cundinam
100 Azuay
Boyaca
Bogota
50
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Fraction of population of European descent, 1778-1781
Absolute settlement and rainfall
1000
900 Choco
Average rainfall in rainiest month (mm), log scale
800
700
600
Colon
500
Vichada
Veraguas
400 Santande
Morona-S
300 Tolima
Panama
Magdalen
Huila Bolivar
200
Guajira Cauca
Pichinch
N de San Antioqui
Cundinam
100 Azuay
Boyaca
Bogota
50
100 1000 10000 100000 1.0e+06
Number of residents of European descent, 1778-1781, log scale
Urban literacy vs. settlement
Vichada
10
Choco
Illiteracy rate in 2000, urban (%)
8 Bolivar
Guajira Tolima
N de San
6 Cotopaxi
Santande
Magdalen Cauca
Morona-S Boyaca
Cundinam
Huila
Antioqui Azuay Pichinch
4
Bogota
2
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Fraction of population of European descent, 1778-1781
Rural literacy vs. settlement
30
Choco
Illiteracy rate in 2000, rural (%)
25
Bolivar
Vichada
Santande
Magdalen
Guajira N de San
20
Cotopaxi Cauca
Boyaca
Tolima
Antioqui
15 Huila
Azuay
Cundinam
Morona-S
10
Pichinch
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Fraction of population of European descent, 1778-1781
Infant mortality vs. settlement
Infant mortality per 1,000 live births, mid 1990s, log scale
100
Choco
80
60 Cauca
Vichada
Cotopaxi
Bolivar
Guajira
40
Magdalen
Huila Boyaca
Tolima Cundinam San
N de
BogotaAzuay
Morona-S
Santande Pichinch
Antioqui
20
0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5
Fraction of population of European descent, 1778-1781
Primary enrollment, Colombia
50%
CANADA, GERMANY 1865: 46-47%
Percentage of population below age 15
UNITED STATES 1865: 45%
SWEDEN 1865: 43%
40% NORWAY 1865: 40%
enrolled in primary school
FRANCE 1865: 37%
AUSTRIA-HUNGARY 1865: 32%
30% DENMARK 1865: 29%
AUSTRALIA 1865: 26%
JAPAN, SPAIN 1865: 23%
20%
URUGUAY, ITALY 1865: 17%
GREECE, NEW ZEALAND 1865: 13-14%
PORTUGAL, MEXICO, ARGENTINA 1865: 10-11%
10% TURKEY 1865: 8%
CHILE 1865: 7%
CUBA, PERU 1865: 5-6%
BRAZIL 1865: 4%
0%
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year when Colombia achieved
others’ 1865 enrollment level
Chile 1886 Uruguay 1947
Serbia 1886 Italy 1948
Turkey 1895 Japan 1963
Portugal 1900 Spain 1964
Mexico 1901 Australia 1967
Argentina 1902 Denmark 1969
Greece 1905 Austria-Hung. 1971
New Zealand 1907 France 1998
Urban vs. Rural schooling in
Antioquia
4
Rural to urban ratio in:
Number of primary schools
3 Population
Number of primary students
2
1
0
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Oligarchy in the 19th century
J. Mosquera
A. Herrán 1830 [1833] J. M. Obando
Archbishop 1830, 1853 [1837]
M. J. Mosquera P. Alcántara Herrán
Archbishop 1841 [1860]
F. Caicedo T. Cipriano de Mosquera
Archbishop 1845, 1860, 1866
[1857, 1864, 1870]
D. Caicedo
Many times VP J. Hilario López J. Arboleda
1860
1849 [1866]
Fraction of adults voting for
president
60%
Colombia
United States
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Public services and urbanization
in Antioquia, 1913
1913 Spending per capita OLS Trend line
4 Pavarand
3.5
Municipal expenditure per capita, 1913, log scale
3 Zaragoza
2.5
2 Segovia
Fredonia Caceres Caldas
Turbo
1.5 Medellin
Remedios Jerico
Girardot
1 Carolina
Jardin
Copacaba Heliconi
Santo Do Amalfi
Titiribi Envigado
Pueblorr Anori Sonson
Valparai Yarumal
Yolombo Mati Concordi
Venecia Andes DonPuerto B
Itagui
San
La Estre Roqu Sopetran Antioqui
Santa Ro Entrerri
Caramant
Buritica
Barbosa La Ceja
.5 Santa Ba
Penol Rionegro RetiroGomez Pl
Angostru San Pedr
Angelopo
San Andr
Valdivia
Anza Armenia Amaga
San Jero
Caicedo Forntino Alegnadr
Ebejico Concepci La Union Bolivar
Sabanala Urrao
Ituango
Salgar Abejorra Campamen
Abriaqui Tamesis Bello
Cocorna Liborina Canasgor
San Vice Giraldo
Guarne Santuari
Betulia Belmira
Dabeiba Narino
Montebel Guatape
San
Granada Rafa
San Luis Marinill
Carmen d
San Carl
.1
.05 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9
Fraction of population classified as urban, 1938, log scale
Public services and urbanization
in Antioquia, 1979
1979 Spending per capita OLS Trend line
9000 Medellin
Municipal expenditure per capita, 1979, log scale
6000
3000
Zaragoza
San Jose
Apartado
Envigado
Abriaqui Sabaneta Itagui
Rionegro Segovia
1000 Puerto N Entrerri Girardot Bello
Chigorod Caucasia Yarumal La Ceja Cisneros
Anza Montebel San Sopetran
Pueblorr Ro
SantaPedr
Retiro
Olaya Fredonia
Betania Belmira
AngelopoPenol Heliconi
Toledo Alejnadr Concordi
Amaga Andes
Venecia Guatape
Puerto B
Copacaba
Angostru San Jero
Mutata Amalfi Caldas
Guadalup Rafa Barbosad Santuari
GiraldoConcepci San Titiribi CarmenJerico
Campamen
CocornaYolombo
Caicedo SabanalaBetulia
Tarso
Caracoli
Yali Antioqui Carolina
Ebejico Remedios SantoAndr La UnionCaramant
Murindo Armenia DoTurbo
Canasgor
Valdivia Roqu
San Marinill
Valparai
Jardin Bolivar La Estre
San
Anori Urrao
Forntino Gomez
Santa BaPl
Don
Tamesis Maceo Mati
Guarne Sonson
Abejorra
Salgar
Caceres Ituango Argelia San Carl
Liborina
Buritica
San Luis Narino Granada
Arbolete
San Vice
100
.05 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 .9 1
Fraction of population classified as urban, 1973, log scale
Geography is not fate
160
Infant deaths before age one, per 1000 live births
140
120
Zambia
100
80
Botswana
60
North Korea
40
20 South Korea
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
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